Anyone Got Any Hunches About Winter Being Over In South Texas And The Gulf Coast?

[Xenon]

55 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

the surface high is over MO, so deep deep south texas gets a ENE wind by the 14th and probably clouds cool precip. I am obviously focused over northern gulf coast which doesnt help us.

Yeah it's not looking so good for Houston, though the forecast still has us hovering around 30F. With such a long duration cold event, heat island might not help so much. I'm mostly worried about zone 10 pushes, foxtails have been popping up recently. I'm also a bit bummed my volunteer jackfruit might not survive its 3rd winter

[AnTonY]

@Collectorpalms

@Xenon

For less impacts towards Texas from this event, you want the TPV to set up farther east - say, that Eastern Great Lakes region around Ontario/Quebec. I remember it being discussed a while back by Joe Bastardi, northeasterly wind directions provide protection to Houston/East Texas region because it puts the area under the downslope shadow of the Ozark/Ouachitas ranges.  Any overruning event then is limited to simply cloudy - partly cloudy skies, when it otherwise would have been a nasty wintry precip event.

Any farther west focus and/or orientation of the TPV sets up is worse for Texas. A direct set up over, say, Montana, is the worst case scenario for absolute cold, allowing "inside sliders" to blast right down to Texas - farther west trough axises into the SW US have lesser absolute cold, but can bring nasty, overrunning weather events.

[NBTX11]

Latest models I saw look slightly better for South and Central TX.

[JLM]

Models have been fairly consistent with temps reaching the 18-22F range here, this will be a true test for my Queens. I hope the models start trending warmer!

Edited February 7, 2021 by JLM
Spelling

[Collectorpalms]

6 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

Latest models I saw look slightly better for South and Central TX.

Have you seen Dallas to Memphis, the duration of days below 32 are concerning. Its going to be right on our door step. Its a tsunami of cold air over the USA coming. Models are going 30+ degrees below normal for daytime highs 5-7 days out.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[AnTonY]

@Collectorpalms

It's a strong tug-of-war between the Euro and GFS as of now. There were massive warm-ups on the former, the arctic air stays more bottled up farther north in the plains - the TPV split, with a piece drifting west towards the PNW, eliminating the threat of severe Arctic cold for Texas. The latter keeps the TPV intact, and will be worrisome for cold in the plains and the Southern US.

We'll have to see how runs turn out the next few days.

[necturus]

I guess the question is, which model do you trust? GFS looks bad, ECMWF looks more meh.  I'll leave it to you weather guys to tell me what's what. 

[Collectorpalms]

I have always used the GFS for temperature outlooks. GFS has always been close enough to get the gist if a major cold spell is coming here whenever I see anything below 20 on GFS 7 day its very rare. They have 16 for Conroe and 13 for Huntsville and upper 10s here too. GFS wants to throw in another whammy and makes it worse for US days 7-10 now.

I am not ready to be too too worried yet... But If I was in DFW this looks like a 1983 event as far as duration of days below 32. Although I do not know the exact hours, just the fact that a model is predicting an event like this is wild.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[NBTX11]

Some forecasts are not showing any freezes at all for San Antonio now. 

[necturus]

GFS runs this morning look pretty terrible, with 25 or less reaching way down into south Texas. The predicted duration of the cold is also striking. Could be worse than our last bad freeze a few years ago even if the absolute lows are higher. Euro also trending colder.

[Collectorpalms]

10 minutes ago, necturus said:

GFS runs this morning look pretty terrible, with 25 or less reaching way down into south Texas. The predicted duration of the cold is also striking. Could be worse than our last bad freeze a few years ago even if the absolute lows are higher. Euro also trending colder.

Yes latest models runs are closing in on the agreement for first time. 

[AnTonY]

Both the 06z and 12z are looking quite cold. But notice that in the 12z suddenly has more looseness/increases with regards to the shortwaves/energy coming in from the Pacific - that tugs the TPV father southwest, which delays the eastward movement, and locks the deep cold more in TX/Louisiana, unlike the previous 06z, which has a more intact TPV that swings more towards the east to spread the cold further into the SE.  The events in the Pacific are crucial in how this pattern ultimately unfolds.

Edited February 8, 2021 by AnTonY

[AnTonY]

UKMet, for instance, has what seems to be a stronger TPV, with less disruption from Pacific energy coming in. The result is the TPV taking a path more towards the Great Lakes.

Waiting for the EURO to see how that unfolds.

[Palmaceae]

On 1/27/2021 at 10:00 AM, Alan_Tampa said:

Never predict winter till at least April.  It's bad luck.

GFS is going wacko again, at least I hope not true, but teens down to the southern RioGrande?

 

[Reyes Vargas]

I doubt that it will get in the teens here in the RGV (finger crossed).  It will be cold but I don't think teens.  

[AnTonY]

Just as expected, the 12z Euro is not nearly as cold for Texas, and allows more of it to spread farther east.  The coming Pacific energy was suppressed enough to avoid disbalancing the TPV towards the west, allowing it to move more towards the Great Lakes region.

[bubba]

What Alan said...

[Collectorpalms]

4 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

GFS is going wacko again, at least I hope not true, but teens down to the southern RioGrande?

 

It’s trending awful and the hours till next week are decreasing. Guess we will know in 7 days. That last map will pretty much take 20 years of my gardening down to stumps. 
I think I have seen enough. Models can battle it out. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Xenon]

GFS has a century+-level nuclear devastation event for Deep South Texas and Tamaulipas...over 48 consecutive hours below freezing (!). At this rate, Brownsville will literally be brown and Matamoros is going to be dead. Would push back tropical expansion by decades and severely damage/kill native tropical flora and fauna. There are boas, crocodiles, iguanas etc just a hundred or two miles south of the border that will probably go locally extinct. Massive mangrove and fish kills...goodbye Texas tarpon and snook. 

Will be really really ugly if the model is right 

[bubba]

I truly hope this does not play out and doubt it will...

[Palmaceae]

Just looked at the newest GFS run, not much better, actually longer duration and more artic air moving east to Florida also. The GFS has been all over the place this year so I don't put much faith in it a week out.

[bubba]

I checked Brownsville, Texas Weather Underground and saw the following the forecast: 2/13-62F/37F; 2/14-49F/34F; 2/15-50F/32F; 57F/44F.

While this is cold for Brownsville,South Texas and RGV, it certainly does not represent a cataclysmic event. All will be fine...

[Sabal_Louisiana]

NWS Forecast Center page today shows for the 3-7 day run, a core of Arctic high staying well north with shallow air wedging down into Texas. No cause for alarm as of yet for Florida.

It shows minimum temps around Monday as 17F around Dallas, with the 32 line down to south Texas, and east to New Orleans, but not beyond.

All models show lack of advancement of really cold air into the Southeast/ Atlantic region.

Sounds like they may be overplaying this cold event considering model inconsistency, time of year and persistent zonal flow (which IS supposed to change late this week) but here are snippets from NWS Office Area Forecast Discussions Tuesday morning:

Houston: 

We are still seeing quite a
spread between models with GFS being one of the coldest solutions.
Latest NBM guidance also suggest a very cold weekend with MaxT in
the 30s to low 40s Sunday and from the upper 20 to mid 30s
Monday. Given that, have leaned towards the colder solutions for
temperatures Saturday into Monday and went fairly close to the
25th percentile of climatology.

(FYI, NBM is the National Blend of Models,  a calibrated suite of weather models used for guidance)

Brownsville:

Temperatures may reach the
freezing mark, and a few degrees below, during the overnight hours
of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. With precipitation forecast
during those times, the precipitation may be in solid form,
especially as freezing rain.

Corpus:

Temperatures are forecast to plummet to below
freezing by Sunday morning and struggle to get out of the 30s to
40s on Sunday. By Sunday night, a deeper trough is progged to
swing across the state aiding in maintaining the cold temperatures.
The combination of well below freezing temperatures at the
surface, the arrival of better jet dynamics aloft and low level
moisture from a bordering coastal trough over the waters may lead
to some wintry precipitation across the region.

 

[AnTonY]

The threat of deep Arctic outbreak cold to the extent of the 1899 or the 1980s is definitely diminishing as per latest model runs. The GFS is still the coldest model by far,  but even it has started to moderate at bit with regards to the winter weather temps and precip - to maybe a 2011, 2014, and 2018 type of outbreak at worst. But the 12z Euro? Virtually eliminates the threat. The way that's trending, it'd literally just be a cold rain at most for Southern Texas.

Edited February 9, 2021 by AnTonY

[Collectorpalms]

...

Edited February 9, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Collectorpalms]

On 1/26/2021 at 10:46 PM, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Hi Everyone,

Anyone out there got any hunches or data showing that winter is over for South Texas and the Gulf Coast.  Let me know.    Thanks.

John

John, lol. I have some hunches, but you asked for data if winter was over for you. Well that was opening a can of worms. Your sitting pretty good right now where your at. Once we get past Feb 14, the worst for southeast Texas is usually over. 

[Collectorpalms]

...

Edited February 9, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

2 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

John, lol. I have some hunches, but you asked for data if winter was over for you. Well that was opening a can of worms. Your sitting pretty good right now where your at. Once we get past Feb 14, the worst for southeast Texas is usually over. 

Ryan,

I am hoping and praying for a miracle, and my hunch is this is all being overplayed, just as when our meteorologists for years have predicted significant rainfall, about 3/4 of the time are WRONG in our semi arid South Texas.   I am hoping the freeze line won't go south of San Antonio, and that the inland areas of Corpus Christi won't get below the upper 30'sF, and that the coastal areas here, won't get below the low 40'sF, and not below the low to mid 40'sF for the Valley.  I am honestly hoping that it is just the first front on Wednesday/Thursday that passes here, but that the worse second front will greatly moderate, and that what is left of it will move eastward, but not southeastward to Florida.

John

[AnTonY]

@Mr. Coconut Palm

Yes, pray for a miracle. Hope with all your soul that the solutions (and TRENDS) depicted in the EURO are correct, and that those of the GFS are wrong.

[chinandega81]

1 hour ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Ryan,

I am hoping and praying for a miracle, and my hunch is this is all being overplayed, just as when our meteorologists for years have predicted significant rainfall, about 3/4 of the time are WRONG in our semi arid South Texas.   I am hoping the freeze line won't go south of San Antonio, and that the inland areas of Corpus Christi won't get below the upper 30'sF, and that the coastal areas here, won't get below the low 40'sF, and not below the low to mid 40'sF for the Valley.  I am honestly hoping that it is just the first front on Wednesday/Thursday that passes here, but that the worse second front will greatly moderate, and that what is left of it will move eastward, but not southeastward to Florida.

John

I know you have some great stuff. I would hate for you to get as cold as they are forecasting as of now. I hope you have cold protection ready for you coconut and other tropicals. I am worries about this event as well as it's duration. I see even by the water at the coastal bend highs will struggle to hit 40.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

1 hour ago, chinandega81 said:

I know you have some great stuff. I would hate for you to get as cold as they are forecasting as of now. I hope you have cold protection ready for you coconut and other tropicals. I am worries about this event as well as it's duration. I see even by the water at the coastal bend highs will struggle to hit 40.

Thanks, Jaime.

 

[Alan_Tampa]

Told you guys, predicting the next periods weather is bad luck.  Winter talk after it's over.  Only discuss results of most recent events.  No predictions!

 

Alan

[JJPalmer]

I have family in Frisco, so I decided to check NWS forecast for the region. Today is forecast to be the warmest in the 7-day period with highs of 34, and three straight nights to start next week below 15°.  I know Sabal are pretty common in the area and can be pretty cold hardy, but this can’t be easy on them, no?

[TampaPalms]

GFS is crazy. Single digits all the way to Houston and below zero in Dallas. That will take a huge toll on palms and such there. I believe live oaks can be affected and the trunks can crack once temperatures get that low.

[PalmatierMeg]

3 hours ago, Alan_Tampa said:

Told you guys, predicting the next periods weather is bad luck.  Winter talk after it's over.  Only discuss results of most recent events.  No predictions!

 

Alan

hear, hear

[Xenon]

If this pans out, going to be a great year for landscape work...imagine trying to remove a million+ robusta and queens in Houston Area alone. That's how hyperbolically mortifying this event is sounding haha 

The beginning of the end is already arriving

Edited February 10, 2021 by Xenon

[amh]

3 minutes ago, Xenon said:

If this pans out, going to be a great year for landscape work...imagine trying to remove a million+ robusta and queens in Houston Area alone. That's how hyperbolically mortifying this event is sounding haha 

The beginning of the end is already arriving

Masons and plumbers will be king.

[NorCalKing]

17 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Ryan,

I am hoping and praying for a miracle, and my hunch is this is all being overplayed, just as when our meteorologists for years have predicted significant rainfall, about 3/4 of the time are WRONG in our semi arid South Texas.   I am hoping the freeze line won't go south of San Antonio, and that the inland areas of Corpus Christi won't get below the upper 30'sF, and that the coastal areas here, won't get below the low 40'sF, and not below the low to mid 40'sF for the Valley.  I am honestly hoping that it is just the first front on Wednesday/Thursday that passes here, but that the worse second front will greatly moderate, and that what is left of it will move eastward, but not southeastward to Florida.

John

I'm hoping things are being overblown for you guys as well. But, "upper 30'sF" is just wish casting. They may be off, but If you think you'll be in the low 40's, you may have to put down the Koolaid lol

[Xenon]

24 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

I'm hoping things are being overblown for you guys as well. But, "upper 30'sF" is just wish casting. They may be off, but If you think you'll be in the low 40's, you may have to put down the Koolaid lol

Doom and gloom GFS actually has Port Isabel and South Padre Island (and SpaceX) outside of the freeze line. NWS is calling for an ultimate low of 40F and 42F vs 34F for Brownsville.  In an event like this, heat island doesn't seem to be much help at all (look at Houston). You want to be as far south as possible with water directly to the north and northwest, surf temp currently at SPI is ~70F. 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Xenon

[AnTonY]

@Xenon

The 12z GFS 500mb patterns on 18z Sunday reveal potential hope.