Anyone Got Any Hunches About Winter Being Over In South Texas And The Gulf Coast?

[Xenon]

Contrast in soil temperatures across the north-south extremes of Texas...incredible!

[AnTonY]

Literally everything has to go right (or wrong) for the forecast to pan out. The image below showcases an evolution I noticed in the 12z GFS vs the 06z, one of quite a few features that could soften the blow if it trends stronger.

Edited February 10, 2021 by AnTonY

[Palmaceae]

Waiting for the 18Z model to run, hopefully changes from this crazy arctic intrusion.

 

[JohnAndSancho]

8 hours ago, Xenon said:

Contrast in soil temperatures across the north-south extremes of Texas...incredible!

Is profanity allowed on this forum? Because holy fecal matter. 

[AnTonY]

00z GFS now (starting to) back off on the craziness it was showing in earlier runs. The modeled upper-level disturbances that are producing this event are much flimsier than they were prior.

[JLM]

NWS forecasting a low of 17F for Houston. Scary. Hopin the best for yall over there!

[NorCalKing]

Ugg, this post did not age well. Holy, some forecasts are calling for 12° for Houston. Let that sink in 12° Houston. What is that, Zone 8A? Takes a lot of cold to blow out a USDA zone by a factor of 1.5!

Edited February 11, 2021 by NorCalKing

[Xenon]

Significant improvement for the Rio Grande Valley...still utter carnage most elsewhere except out far west 

[necturus]

1 hour ago, JLM said:

NWS forecasting a low of 17F for Houston. Scary. Hopin the best for yall over there!

The NWS forecast is balmy compared to some of the local weather forecasts. They seem to have gone all in on GFS. At this point I will be grateful if it comes true.

[chinandega81]

I hope all the Texas posters and members have some sort of protection with a heat source to help their palms and plants get through these multiple days bus especially Monday. It would be terrible for everything to be wiped out if it could be avoided. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Keep us updated on your steps and precautions.

[JASON M]

Wishing everybody who lives in Texas the best outcome...I’m currently driving west on 10 and have been surprised to see so many palms, even so far inland. 

[Xenon]

17 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

 It would be terrible for everything to be wiped out if it could be avoided. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Keep us updated on your steps and precautions.

Houston's average annual extreme minimum low for the past 30 years is just above 28F. Forecasts are predicting 10-15F Monday night. This will be a LANDSCAPE CHANGING freeze 

[chinandega81]

1 minute ago, Xenon said:

Houston's average annual extreme minimum low for the past 30 years is just above 28F. Forecasts are predicting 10-15F Monday night. This will be a LANDSCAPE CHANGING freeze 

That's what i'm afraid of. If this cold event is as bad as predicted, people might not want to deal with tropicals for a while. That would be too bad. This type of cold is very rare...hopefully the "worst in a life time" that never repeats again. I hope at least the RGV and Corpus are spared somewhat as well with their even more tender vegatation.

[AnTonY]

1.) Pay attention to any trends regarding the upper-level pattern evolutions on Friday. That is the most important day because the North Pacific shortwaves that have been modeled to lead to this event will finally have arrived ashore - therefore, there will be more data sampled, and, thus, the pattern evolutions on model runs will be far more accurate than the past few days.

2.) Regarding the ultimate lows on Tuesday night, I don't see how places like El Paso and Del Rio will be warmer than Houston. I just don't. Unless, of course, they assume verification regarding any snowpack in North Texas and above, as well as just happenstance regarding the timing of surface high position + clearing skies?

3.) 500mb and 850mb levels are almost due west at that point. The skies won't be clear for long, as the surface flow is not aligned with the flow aloft. Streaming of upper level cirrus clouds will limit any radiational cooling. Westerly 850mb flow may come off w/ downsloping. Surface temps can also be mitigated if the high positioning allows downsloping off the Ozarks and Oachitas.

 

[Palmaceae]

One thing I can say, the GFS has been pretty consistent for a week.

 

[AnTonY]

Relevant

[ColdBonsai]

41 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

Relevant

 

 

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by ColdBonsai

[NorCalKing]

Bad news, the 00z is fresh off the press (still running) and temps are actually COLDER then the earlier 18z. Not a good sign to be trending colder as we get closer. Hoping we can pipe in some west coast air to you guys, and moderate things. I can't believe the GFS hasn't backed off. And to be honest, I hate to say it, but the GFS has been getting better than the Euro the last few months. Let's hope they are wrong on this.

Edited February 12, 2021 by NorCalKing

[AnTonY]

@NorCalKing

Indeed. It's definitely going to fluctuate a bit. At the very least, it's all still better than what it was showing Wednesday (knock on wood). The GFS at that time actually has cloud cover over the Houston area, though...

The 12z Friday is crucial. By then, there'd have been soild daytime sampling of the upper-air disturbances that set up the pattern.

[Sabal_Louisiana]

There are at least three limiting factors that determine the outcome of palm health and survival as a result of cold waves:

1. The length of hours below 32F. This is the big one. Everyone seems to focus only on the absolute minimum that is experienced during a cold spell but I would rather have a single night in the mid to upper teens, then a quick warmup into the 40s than a few days with lows in the lower 20s rising only to the mid 30s for highs.

2. That said, absolute minimum does matter - as some palms fry with only a few hours below a threshold temperature.

3. Wetness is generally not good,  for certain palms. This especially applies to those palms from arid climates like Washingtonias. Humid cold seems to affect palms worse, just like people.

[Collectorpalms]

Unfortunately, this event Is playing out now with all elements combined including high winds that really wrecks cold protection. 
there is no difference in temperature in urban Dallas vs rural Texas, or for that matter a corn field of Indiana on a average winter.

No one is even talking about another cold front later in the week, and if it gets above 32 between the two. Any frozen precipitation is going to be terrible for whoever get it. 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[JJPalmer]

There needs to be a ‘2021 Texas Freeze Damage’ thread to document the even throughout the state. Will be a historically important freeze event and the more pictures / data we collect the better.

[ruskinPalms]

So sorry for our Texas friends. I really can’t believe it is going to be that cold that far south this late in the winter. Let’s hope the models are wrong. As a side note, aren’t there native Sabal minors in Oklahoma? Would they survive those predicted temps? 

[Tropicdoc]

There’s a reason why all of these palms etc are not native here in south Louisiana. 

im about to go gangbusters this weekend protecting stuff..... I’m not ready to concede to Mother Nature over one night! 

[Tropicdoc]

How fast can one build a bio dome over their backyard? 

[Reyes Vargas]

20 minutes ago, Tropicdoc said:

There’s a reason why all of these palms etc are not native here in south Louisiana. 

im about to go gangbusters this weekend protecting stuff..... I’m not ready to concede to Mother Nature over one night! 

How cold is it forecasted to get there and foe how long?

[Tropicdoc]

Here I’m on the east edge of the cold knife. Just 1 night of 24 F. That is warm zone 9a. That is what my official zone is. We were due: the last 2 winters were zone 10a. I have 3 foot pothos vine leaves growing 25 feet up in my live oak. 
Palms at risk: trachycarpus martianus, butia x parajubaea x 4, arenga engleri x 4, archontophoenix Cunningham x 4, butia x jubaea x syagrus x 2, and beccariophoenix alfredii x 2, sabal bermudana 

[NorCalKing]

11 hours ago, AnTonY said:

The 12z Friday is crucial.

Absolutely. As I just posted in the other Arctic outbreak thread, the 12z actually trended COLDER. <100 forecasts are getting into the much tighter accuracy window, and now I'd start to panic if I had anything tender (and large) in the ground.

[JLM]

NWS Forecasted Absolute Lows for various cities in Texas and Louisiana.
--Texas--
Brownsville TX: 26F
Port Isabell/South Padre Island TX: 37F
Corpus Christi TX: 23F
Port Aransas TX: 23F
Rockport TX: 19F
Victoria TX: 13F
Laredo TX: 21F
San Antonio TX: 14F
New Braunfels TX: 12F
Austin TX: 10F
Rosenburg TX: 12F
Houston TX: 15F
Galveston TX: 25F
Huntsville TX: 7F
College Station TX: 6F
Waco TX: 6F
Lufkin TX: 13F
Longview TX: 10F
Tyler TX: 10F
Dallas TX: 6F
Ft Worth TX: 5F
Abilene TX: 3F
Midland TX: 4F
El Paso TX: 22F
Lubbock TX: -2F
Amarillo TX: -7F
Wichita Falls TX: -2F
--Louisiana--
Shreveport LA: 13F
Alexandria LA: 15F
Monroe LA: 14F
Lake Charles LA: 21F
Lafayette LA: 21F
Baton Rouge LA: 24F
Houma LA: 26F
New Orleans LA: 30F
Slidell LA: 26F

Those are some scary numbers, and most places with lows below 20F dont go above freezing for a high the next day. This may be a very long duration event (36+ hours).

Edited February 12, 2021 by JLM

[LivistonaFan]

I am sure the extreme cold won't happen. After all, the "Old Farmer's Almanac" predicted the February to be warmer than average (by 5 to 10°F). That really shows how accurate these long term weather forecasts are.

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/TX/Dallas

[JohnAndSancho]

7° here. Freaking 7. Wow. 

[Sabal_Louisiana]

"Re: There’s a reason why all of these palms etc are not native here in south Louisiana."

 By what comparison? Most palms are tropical. The ones we enjoy on our landscape are the outliers. The only area of the conterminous US that approaches tropical is the southern tip of Florida.

There are only two native palm species native to south Louisiana but this may have more to do with bio-geographical isolation than because of cold winters.  This is the same number of species found in Mediterranean Europe, where it hardly ever freezes.

Sabal palmetto grows naturally almost up to Virginia. Windmill palms grow in upland regions of central China. Butias live on the pampas of Argentina. All of these places get at least as cold as here. Despite occasional arctic outbreaks, there's at least a dozen non-native palm species that can for the most part be grown with some assurance in southern Louisiana. I have seen some of these "growing wild" as volunteers, and most survived the cold wave of 2018 (coldest in almost 30 years) without much problem.

 

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Sabal_Louisiana
typo

[amh]

3 hours ago, LivistonaFan said:

I am sure the extreme cold won't happen. After all, the "Old Farmer's Almanac" predicted the February to be warmer than average (by 5 to 10°F). That really shows how accurate these long term weather forecasts are.

They were probably basing the predictions on La Nina, which bring mild and dry winters to Texas.

[RedRabbit]

8 hours ago, JLM said:

NWS Forecasted Absolute Lows for various cities in Texas and Louisiana.
--Texas--
Brownsville TX: 26F
Port Isabell/South Padre Island TX: 37F
Corpus Christi TX: 23F
Port Aransas TX: 23F
Rockport TX: 19F
Victoria TX: 13F
Laredo TX: 21F
San Antonio TX: 14F
New Braunfels TX: 12F
Austin TX: 10F
Rosenburg TX: 12F
Houston TX: 15F
Galveston TX: 25F
Huntsville TX: 7F
College Station TX: 6F
Waco TX: 6F
Lufkin TX: 13F
Longview TX: 10F
Tyler TX: 10F
Dallas TX: 6F
Ft Worth TX: 5F
Abilene TX: 3F
Midland TX: 4F
El Paso TX: 22F
Lubbock TX: -2F
Amarillo TX: -7F
Wichita Falls TX: -2F
--Louisiana--
Shreveport LA: 13F
Alexandria LA: 15F
Monroe LA: 14F
Lake Charles LA: 21F
Lafayette LA: 21F
Baton Rouge LA: 24F
Houma LA: 26F
New Orleans LA: 30F
Slidell LA: 26F

Those are some scary numbers, and most places with lows below 20F dont go above freezing for a high the next day. This may be a very long duration event (36+ hours).

Is that really correct for SPI? 37f isn’t too bad when Houston is at 15f.

[Tropicdoc]

6 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

"Re: There’s a reason why all of these palms etc are not native here in south Louisiana."

 By what comparison? Most palms are tropical. The ones we enjoy on our landscape are the outliers. The only area of the conterminous US that approaches tropical is the southern tip of Florida.

There are only two native palm species native to south Louisiana but this may have more to do with bio-geographical isolation than because of cold winters.  This is the same number of species found in Mediterranean Europe, where it hardly ever freezes.

Sabal palmetto grows naturally almost up to Virginia. Windmill palms grow in upland regions of central China. Butias live on the pampas of Argentina. All of these places get at least as cold as here. Despite occasional arctic outbreaks, there's at least a dozen non-native palm species that can for the most part be grown with some assurance in southern Louisiana. I have seen some of these "growing wild" as volunteers, and most survived the cold wave of 2018 (coldest in almost 30 years) without much problem.

 

 

Point taken. I was just reminding myself that we are forcing plants into non native situations almost as a long term experiment so every now and then we might get burned with a 1989 type of event. Somewhere I saw an article about that freeze in New Orleans and what palms made it through and which ones didn’t. Of course there are plenty of other ornamentals grown here for hundreds of years that are non native. Believe it or not, my livistona chinensis went through 2018 under canopy without a scratch! So yeah you’re right geography has something to do with distribution isolation and subsequent evolution of species. Good luck to everyone. 

[HtownPalms]

Hold off on planting the vegetable garden Mr Coconut Palm. I think we might have another light frost or two before spring is here for good. 

[CB Lisa]

My son had to move from St. Pete, Fla. to Houston this past summer, so I’ve been following the weather out there. I just wanted to say how terribly sorry I am for all of you that are going to be affected by the extreme cold. An freak event like that is something we all dread (at least those of us growing tropical plants ‘on the edge’). Sending sympathy for the stress it must be causing and wishing everyone affected the best of luck in saving what can be saved. 

[JohnAndSancho]

FWIW The Weather Channel now says our low in Huntsville is 4° on Monday. Here's hoping all the landscaping plants at work die. All of my patio palms at home are inside and all of my office palms are on my desk away from the window. 

[JLM]

Updated Numbers:

NWS Forecasted Absolute Lows for various cities in Texas and Louisiana.

Ex: San Antonio TX: 14F (previous number) --> (updated number)
This is for comparison.

--Texas--
Brownsville TX: 26F --> 25F
Port Isabell/South Padre Island TX: 37F (No change)
Corpus Christi TX: 23F (No change)
Port Aransas TX: 23F --> 24F
Rockport TX: 19F --> 21F
Victoria TX: 13F (No change)
Laredo TX: 21F (No change)
San Antonio TX: 14F --> 12F
New Braunfels TX: 12F --> 9F
Austin TX: 10F --> 6F
Rosenberg TX: 12F --> 9F
Houston TX: 15F --> 12F
Galveston TX: 25F --> 23F
Huntsville TX: 7F --> 4F
College Station TX: 6F --> 4F
Waco TX: 6F (No change)
Lufkin TX: 13F --> 9F
Longview TX: 10F --> 6F
Tyler TX: 10F --> 5F
Dallas TX: 6F --> 4F
Ft Worth TX: 5F --> 4F
Abilene TX: 3F --> 0F
Midland TX: 4F --> 1F
El Paso TX: 22F --> 20F
Lubbock TX: -2F --> -4F
Amarillo TX: -7F --> -3F
Wichita Falls TX: -2F --> -4F
--Louisiana--
Shreveport LA: 13F --> 10F
Alexandria LA: 15F --> 11F
Monroe LA: 14F --> 12F
Lake Charles LA: 21F --> 16F
Lafayette LA: 21F --> 17F
Baton Rouge LA: 24F --> 22F
Houma LA: 26F --> 25F
New Orleans LA: 30F --> 28F
Slidell LA: 26F --> 24F
--Mississippi Coast--
Bay St. Louis MS: 29F
Gulfport MS: 26F
Biloxi MS: 26F
Ocean Springs MS: 27F
Pascagoula MS: 28F
--Alabama Coast--
Bayou La Batre AL: 29F
Mobile AL: 29F
Gulf Shores AL: 31F

Numbers have gotten even worse in most places. For Houston, this will even burn the Washingtonia, and i wouldnt be at all surprised if a few dont die from this event.
I added the MS and AL coast as low temps for these areas have dropped as well. 
 

[TampaPalms]

Wow Austin 6°! That's a palmy city.

Edited February 13, 2021 by TampaPalms