Coldest Temperatures since the Arctic Outbreak of December 1989

[NBTX11]

Euro model showing around 17 for San Antonio early Tuesday morning.

[SailorBold]

This is a nightmare.. and on the 10 year anniversary of 2011 to boot.  I feel for you guys.  They just lowered our temp from 17 to 13 for the worst of it. Yikey..

Save the Uresanas!!!!

Stop what you're doing and save the uresanas!!!

[SailorBold]

4 hours ago, jwitt said:

This is about the event in 2011 that hit Texas/NM.  A storm from the west "sucked"the Arctic air westward from Texas into NM/El PASO latterly "sparing" the bulk of Texas compared to farther west(NM/El PASO). 

 There is a storm now coming from the west here.  They are forecasting zonal lows here currently.  I wrote a letter concerning the event in 2011 in 2011.  What happened here is about temperature wise the same as predicted for you DFW folks, but adjusted for  zone.  If it happens, there will be some carnage, plenty surprises, and major learnings.  On a side note, the rosemary I mention in my letter, all came back from the roots! What were the learning? All larger filifera I know of in the ABQ area(not many) survived (-7f - -11f) unprotected.  Many large robustas in Las Cruces survived the -5f.  Google street view shows a nearly 100% P canieras(sic) survival in El Paso's 0f.   

The NWS never did correctly predict what actually happened here. They did lowered their forecast within 24 hours of event to predict about zero. They were a minimum of seven degrees off less than 24 hours

Yeah.. siting is important..healthy trees etc..  eek..  I'm hoping there will be plenty of pleasant surprises.. or hopefully this will be a non event. The latter preferably. 

 

[AnTonY]

18z incoming ... hopefully the trends are better.

Edited February 10, 2021 by AnTonY

[AginKeller]

Sorry, I don’t know much about weather forecasting but I’m trying to learn.  What is the thing you circled and why would it save Texas? Thanks

[NBTX11]

I know y'all are concerned about palms, but on a side note, don't forget to do the following on Sunday and Monday night.

Disconnect your exterior hoses.  Put some type of insulation over your outdoor faucet where your garden hose goes.  Open up your indoor cabinets below your sinks.  Let your indoor faucets drip overnight to keep water moving in your lines.

You do not want to deal with busted water pipes. 

 

[jwitt]

The prepare your home's are good advice. 

In 2011,  the natural gaslines were overwhelmed,  we had entire towns and cities shut off to maintain supply to the majority.  Taos and Bernalillo were towns that come to mind. 

[SailorBold]

4 minutes ago, jwitt said:

The prepare your home's are good advice. 

In 2011,  the natural gaslines were overwhelmed,  we had entire towns and cities shut off to maintain supply to the majority.  Taos and Bernalillo were towns that come to mind. 

Yes..I remember that, too.. and it was for a lengthy period. I remember my furnace not being able to keep temp. Electric blankets would have helped.. I ended up with 4 heavy comforters...which helped when you breathed under them.  I hope we don't experience that again in the near future. 

[NorCalKing]

3 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

My apartments just sent me an email asking me to leave all my faucets dripping and not turn my heater off and told us we can expect power outages and broken pipes anyway. I'm not digging this - I live in the south specifically to avoid winter. 

Move to California lol

[JohnAndSancho]

1 minute ago, NorCalKing said:

Move to California lol

Whataburger > In N Out 

[NorCalKing]

1 minute ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Whataburger > In N Out 

HELL NO!!

You did NOT!!! lol

 

[NBTX11]

6 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

Move to California lol

You think this is a common occurrence here?  I haven't worried about freezing temps in 10 years basically. 

[AnTonY]

15 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

Move to California lol

Or to Florida (I-4 and below) if you want to stay in the South.

[JohnAndSancho]

12 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

HELL NO!!

You did NOT!!! lol

 

All day, homey. All day. 

[JohnAndSancho]

2 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

Or to Florida (I-4 and below) if you want to stay in the South.

After 2 years in Polk County and 10 in Pensacola I'm Florida'd out. 

[AnTonY]

14 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

You think this is a common occurrence here?  I haven't worried about freezing temps in 10 years basically. 

True, but it won't bode well if these types of TPV disruptions become more common with CC  (at least, in the near-term). Then again, all bets are off regarding full-on CC.

Edited February 10, 2021 by AnTonY

[climate change virginia]

1 hour ago, PalmatierMeg said:

When I lived in NOVA, we would open the under sink kitchen cabinet doors and leave them open on bitter cold nights. Our main water line entered the house right under the sink. The household heat moderated the cold so the pipes wouldn't freeze. We also set the faucet to slowly drip to keep water moving through the pipes

We also had a fireplace insert and piped heat through the attic to our bedroom upstairs using a bathroom fan.

We did 100s of broken pipe water damages over the years. Be aware that if your full water pipes freeze solid the expanding ice will crack them. That's a big enough problem but when the pipes start to thaw water will blast out of them and flood the house. By the way, thaw frozen pipes with a hair dryer not a blow torch.

 

hmm  my family never had to do that and our pipes never exploded. what part of NOVA did u live in?

Edited February 10, 2021 by climate change virginia

[Collectorpalms]

18z gfs. Still too cold. IT has -4 for me. With less white stuff. 
To get these results, all ingredients have to be in place. Soon as one ingredient changes, the model will bust. 
that hasn’t happened. But maybe tomorrow it will. 
 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Chester B]

3 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

 Here is the National Weather from Portland, plus I looked at a couple models, Id go with them as they have experience forecast for specific location:

.SYNOPSIS...Benign weather pattern continues today, Then big changes arrive Wed night into Thu, thanks to much colder air being pushed across the northern Rockies and spilling to the Pacific Northwest. We`ll see brisk east winds pushing cold air west of the Cascades for Thu through Sat. Low pressure will provide moisture on Thu, with rain and snow across region. Messiest weather will be Thu night, with wide range of weather across region. Then, cold with snow showers Friday. Another front arrives Sat, with another round of snow. Will stay chilly through rest of the weekend, with snow showers on Sunday. Gradually warming early next week, with lowland rain and mountain snow. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Still quiet but chilly start to Wed with temps in the upper 20s across much of the lowlands. Upper ridge offshore continues near 135W as splitting system near 145w will near the coast Thu afternoon. By this time the well advertised cold air has pushed into the region and filtering into the CWA. Initially pcpn starts as rain for the lowlands but by Thu evening snow will be falling north of about Salem with rain to the south. But where that rain/snow division will depend on where the surface low ends up. And still - models are having difficulty with that. Right now looks like the south Willamette valley will be just through Sat. But should the low take a more southern track, freezing temperatures could reach that area, resulting in freezing rain. Freezing rain is possible for the coast range and even the north coast early Fri. Right now looks like the central Willamette valley will be in the rain to freezing rain to snow transition zone. For the north Willamette valley into sw WA, should be all snow. New model guidance showing a juicier system Thu night into Friday AM. Digging further into the models, the GFS is showing a broad area of synoptic lift and strong frontogenesis during this time so feel increasing QPF and resulting snow amounts is a good idea. For now will go with around 3 to 5 inches snow for Thu night and Fri, but higher amounts are certainly possible. As an example for Portland metro the NBM showing 80% chance for greater than 2" and a 42% chance greater than 4". There is also a 20% chance for greater 6". The NBM has similar results for the Kelso/Longview area. Pcpn rates will ease some on Friday as the first system departs, but another juicy system pushes in on Saturday. This system looks like the surface low will be further north with warmer air aloft eroding at the cold air. Will probably see substantial freezing rain in the central valley and parts of the coast range. Eventually the freezing rain works its way north to sw WA as some of the ensembles show. Snow amounts forecast will be a bit more challenging for north Willamette and sw WA on Sat-Sat night due to the possibility of freezing rain, but think will see another 3 to 5 inches snow. The Gorge, Upper Hood, and the Cascades will get a new coat of paint later Thu into the weekend. Cascades should see 8 to 12" Thu-Fri and 10 to 15" Fri night-Sat. Gorge and Upper Hood with 4-8" Thu-Fri, and 6 to 10" Fri night-Sat. One thing lowering confidence in the snow amounts in the Cascades is the orographics aren`t highly favorable, so will have to rely synoptic lift and frontogenesis for good snow rates. With these changes in guidance have extended the winter storm watch into Sat for the Cascades, Gorge, and lowlands from central Willamette Valley into sw WA. This will be a prolonged period of wintery weather for much of the forecast area. Besides the wintery pcpn, temperatures will dip into the 20s for much of the northern half of the forecast area and along with gusty east winds will see the windchill index in the low teens. .LONG TERM...Saturday night through Tuesday...Cold air remains place with temps in the 20s and single digits in the Cascades. But with brisk east winds will probably see wind chill index in the low teens for the lowlands. But there is gradual warming as the offshore flow weakens later Sun into Mon as the storm track lifts further north. Another front will arrive later Sun night into Mon, with snow levels slowly rising. May see some light snow initially at lowest inland locations, but think most areas transitions to rain, with snow above 1500 feet.

Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Calm wind.

Tonight

Rain and snow likely, mainly after 4am. Snow level 1500 feet. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Light northeast wind becoming east 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1pm. Patchy fog between 4pm and 5pm. Snow level 2700 feet lowering to 1500 feet in the afternoon . High near 37. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. Low around 27. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Windy, with an east wind 22 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow and freezing rain likely, mainly after 10pm. Snow level 500 feet. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Sunday

A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.

Sunday Night

Rain likely. Snow level 1400 feet rising to 3000 feet after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Washington's Birthday

Rain likely. Snow level 2600 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

Monday Night

A chance of rain. Snow level 2700 feet lowering to 2000 feet after midnight . Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Tuesday

A chance of rain. Snow level 1800 feet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.

 

I think you might be right about this.  Here's hoping I'm on the rain side and not the snow!

[Chester B]

2 hours ago, PDXPalm said:

Hi Chester,

I used to have plenty of palm's up in Tualatin a few years back.  Kept a 15 foot Robusta alive through plenty of cold snaps, thanks to that lovely Gorge Cold Air Funnel.  That being said,  the best weather guy in my opinion up there is Mark.  His blog is here:  https://www.kptv.com/weather/blog/winter-storm-watch-a-closer-look/article_a2373ff8-6b5e-11eb-9415-93584e32b299.html?block_id=1035069

Wish we had something like that for DFW now that I have tree's here

Yeah Mark is who I usually listen to.  The last couple winters he's not been the most accurate until the day before.  He was talking crazy stuff yesterday but now he's backing off on those predictions.

[Collectorpalms]

34 minutes ago, climate change virginia said:

hmm  my family never had to do that and our pipes never exploded. what part of NOVA did u live in?

If you were too young you probably wouldn’t know about the cold 1970s and 1980s. I don’t know your age. 
Those feel like a completely different way of life. We have it easy now. My dad was on the front page of the newspaper for plowing roads with his tractor after a blizzard. 

There are probably more coconuts than snow plows in Texas. 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Chester B]

2 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

If you were too young you probably wouldn’t know about the cold 1970s and 1980s. I don’t know your age. 
Those feel like a completely different way of life. We have it easy now. My dad was on the front page of the newspaper for plowing roads with his tractor after a blizzard. 

I'm from Canada - trust me I know snow.  Yes things seemed snowier and colder when I was a kid in the 80's on average, but by far 2013/2014 was the worst winter I've ever experienced.  Coldest, snowiest, iciest and longest.  Nothing came close in my memory.  

[enigma99]

Looks like the trend as backed off a little... 

[Teegurr]

22 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

If you were too young you probably wouldn’t know about the cold 1970s and 1980s. I don’t know your age. 
Those feel like a completely different way of life. We have it easy now. My dad was on the front page of the newspaper for plowing roads with his tractor after a blizzard. 

There are probably more coconuts than snow plows in Texas. 

He's only 14.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Teegurr

[NBTX11]

So the GFS moderated.  Wonder why.

[Collectorpalms]

20 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

So the GFS moderated.  Wonder why.

The locations of highest or any frozen precipitation is squirrelly this far out. That’s a huge deal. 

Large hurricanes are quite easy to forecast their landfall. However, a tropical storm is harder to forecast because it hasn’t developed. This hurricane hasn’t formed. 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[Keys6505]

2 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Whataburger > In N Out 

White Castle > everything

Do they even have them here?  I haven't seen one.

 

 

[amh]

I've been told to never forecast record weather.

[PalmatierMeg]

2 hours ago, climate change virginia said:

hmm  my family never had to do that and our pipes never exploded. what part of NOVA did u live in?

Fairfax County

My kids never had to worry about frozen pipes either

[JohnAndSancho]

35 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

White Castle > everything

Do they even have them here?  I haven't seen one.

 

 

I've literally never seen one, but thanks to the Beastie Boys I know their fries only come in one size. I've seen Krystal scattered here and there though. 

[Meangreen94z]

48 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

I've literally never seen one, but thanks to the Beastie Boys I know their fries only come in one size. I've seen Krystal scattered here and there though. 

I thought both White Castle and Krystal went bankrupt. But I guess they both stayed in business 

[RJ]

1 hour ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Fairfax County

My kids never had to worry about frozen pipes either

No one up north ever had to really worry about it because they built houses with the anticipation that frigid cold does and will happen. Just like folks in Canada don't worry about frozen pipes. The house I'm renting here in SC had pipes freeze in the 2018 cold snap. Silly things like water lines plumed on outside walls you would never see up north but is common in the south. 

[amh]

1 minute ago, RJ said:

No one up north ever had to really worry about it because they built houses with the anticipation that frigid cold does and will happen. Just like folks in Canada don't worry about frozen pipes. The house I'm renting here in SC had pipes freeze in the 2018 cold snap. Silly things like water lines plumed on outside walls you would never see up north but is common in the south. 

Exactly, I wish builders wouldn't attach faucets to the houses without a shutoff.

[Keys6505]

2 minutes ago, RJ said:

Silly things like water lines plumed on outside walls you would never see up north but is common in the south. 

....Or water heaters in attics, or hose bibs without shutoffs, or cpvc water lines, or......

[NBTX11]

I went and bought 2 outside faucet insulators at home depot today for like 5 dollars.  Put them on and will leave them on until at least Tuesday. 

[JohnAndSancho]

3 minutes ago, amh said:

Exactly, I wish builders wouldn't attach faucets to the houses without a shutoff.

I'm trying to figure out what to do with all the faucets on the outside of the hotel, but I'm also kind of hoping it kills off all the knockout roses and boring landscape plants. I'd love to replace our Yawn Trees with Trachies. 

[JohnAndSancho]

2 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

....Or water heaters in attics, or hose bibs without shutoffs, or cpvc water lines, or......

Air conditioners in attics! 

[amh]

Just now, JohnAndSancho said:

Air conditioners in attics! 

Hey now, you dont want to repair your ceiling every time the drain clogs?

[amh]

2 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

I'm trying to figure out what to do with all the faucets on the outside of the hotel, but I'm also kind of hoping it kills off all the knockout roses and boring landscape plants. I'd love to replace our Yawn Trees with Trachies. 

Are the faucets home grade or industrial quality?

[JohnAndSancho]

2 minutes ago, amh said:

Are the faucets home grade or industrial quality?

Industrial. Hidden behind little flap doors. I guess we just let them dribble and throw some old sheets and towels down or something. The Styrofoam home depot covers won't fit.