Coldest spring on record for UK and most of Europe

[UK_Palms]

While it has warmed up massively here over the past 36-48 hours, the western coasts of the UK had abnormally low daytime temperatures on Wednesdau, followed by clear skies at night, meaning yet another radiation frost in some inland places. I think some areas in the SW may have actually seen their latest frost ever on record during the early hours of Thursday morning... 

 

 

It's still bitterly cold in parts of central Europe as well with some parts of Germany, Austria & Switzerland struggling to reach 10C...

 

Record snowfalls for the time of year in Austria and Slovenia as well...

 

 

I managed to reach 21.7C / 71F here on Thursday, which is also the first time that I have reached 20C since way back on March 30th. The hottest place in the UK was Wisley in Surrey at 22C / 72F, which was recorded about 10 miles NE of me. Surrey in general was probably the warmest place in the UK on Thursday, as is often the case during the summer months. 

 

Despite the 7-8 weeks of crap, record breaking cold spring weather, it appears that summer has suddenly arrived in northwestern Europe. The Azores high seems to be setting up further north again in the Atlantic and the high pressure block looks like it is going to inhibit precipitation, for most of June at least. 

 

It looks like the heat is going to keep building over the next 7-10 days. The ECMWF climate model has London down for 29C /84F on 5th June, as it stands. Guildford at 28C supposedly. Of course a lot could change between then and now. 

[UK_Palms]

Another warm day Sunday with a high of 22C / 73F here, although not quite as warm as Saturday when it reached 25C / 77F here. I saw a fair few places in southeast London exceed 27C / 80F on Saturday, but those stations are obviously unofficial ones, without stevenson screens, and could be a few degrees off. Still temperatures are widely in the 20's C across the UK now. We should hit 25C on Monday and may hit 27C on Wednesday.

 

 

 

High pressure looks set to dominate now that we move into summer...

 

 

The days are getting very long again here now. 18 hours pretty much. I am able to stay outside working in the garden, or allotment, until about 10pm now. Total darkness isn't reached until about an hour later at 11pm. Then first light is around 3am. I have been hearing the morning birds at 3am the past few nights. It's then completely light by about 4:30am. The sun is up above the horizon by 5am. We're still 3 weeks away from the summer solstice as well, when total darkness isn't reached until 11:30pm and first light will be at 2:50am here. So less than 4 hours of total darkness (astronomical twilight). The amount of visible light, in which you can work under without artificial light, is closer to 18 hours though.

 

 

Consequently UV levels are pretty high now, even up here at 51N. I have burnt the hell out of my back and shoulders in the garden on Saturday. I didn't even think to use any suncream and now I have puss-filled blisters on my shoulders that I will need to pop. I was probably out in the garden without a t-shirt, for about 3-4 hours at most. Never thought it would burn me that badly, that quickly. I totally underestimated the intensity of the sunlight. Well it turns out that we are seeing UV index levels of 8 under the clear skies. That will be closer to 9 around the summer solstice. The UV is much stronger than people realise when you're this close to the solstice. I think there's quite a bit of ozone damage above London, the UK, and Europe as well. 

[UK_Palms]

I have only reached 26.1C (79F) here in my garden on Monday, meaning that March 30th will go down as my warmest day of spring this year, back when I recorded 26.9C (80F). I think that is the first time since records began that the highest spring temperature was recorded in March, for Surrey at least. A lot of places in the UK have exceeded their March 30th temperature today though, since they were not as warm as I was here in late March. Even the Scottish highlands reached 25C (77F) today, which is obviously their warmest temperature of the year so far. 

Locally temperatures around here have been in the 24-27C range. Some stations in nearby Guildford and Godalming were reading 27C+, which could be legit, but it is doubtful. Those stations are far from being official, or having stevenson screens. It does appear that the centre of Guildford may have reached 27C / 80F however. They were probably about 1C warmer than my rural location just outside of town...

 

 

Here are some stations near my village, showing a temp range of 76F - 83F...

 

Ashford in northeast Surrey appeared to be a bit of a hotspot on Monday...

 

 

 

Here is an interesting piece on the 'record' breaking spring we have just had. Here in Surrey it was my driest, sunniest and frostiest April on record, whereas May was also my wettest on record. The injection of heat and sunshine in recent days has however prevented May from being the coldest and least sunny on record for me, which it was on course to be until recent days...

 

 

The record breaking cold spring already feels like an eternity away now that we have been bathed in sunshine and heat the past few days. It's officially the start of meteorological summer tomorrow and the southeast & London are probably going to be looking at highs of 25-26C again. Possibly 27C in a few places. Wednesday is going to be the big one though. Depending on how much cloud cover there is, some places may reach 30C on Wednesday. After that temperatures will drop back down to 22-23C, but there appears to be a big plume of Saharan air moving up next week as well, which could bring highs of 34-35C on the high end, or about 28-29C on the low end. So it looks like June is going to be doing it's best to make up for the abysmal spring.

 

There's the possibility of some thunderstorms on Wednesday, but they will be towards the west and pretty isolated. I doubt I will get any here. The high pressure system isn't going to budge now. It looks like the heat is going to be really supercharged towards the middle of June if the long range forecasts are anything to go by. One of the models is showing 36C for 12th June, but that is almost 2 weeks away. Surely it won't go from being one of the coldest May's on record to potentially the hottest June on record for the southeast of England!? Talk about a contrast.

 

@Teegurr Further to our previous discussion, you can see that high pressure is locking in hard now that we are going into summer. May was a freak record breaker here, but now you can see that precipitation is being suppressed and temperatures have climbed rapidly, compared to how things were 1-2 weeks ago. The freak cold spring aside, the weather pattern is not behaving like you would expect in a typical oceanic climate, due to the clear skies, low humidity and absence of summer rainfall during the warmer months. Especially up here at 51N. This will probably become more and more pronounced as we go further into summer. The Azores high is yet to fully establish itself too, so the rainfall suppression will become more pronounced in a few weeks. 

Keep an eye on the temperatures and rainfall in southeastern England this summer. Sure, it could break down again in the coming weeks, but I suspect it will qualify as warm-summer Med come September, primarily due to that absence of summer rainfall and also the summer heat. Somewhere in the southeast will almost certainly exceed 38C this summer. Parts of southeastern England, especially Kent and Sussex, are drier and warmer in summer nowadays than some of the true warm-summer Med climates. Seattle, Washington and Victoria, BC come to mind. Of course the longer term stats will say otherwise, but the rainfall patterns have totally changed here nowadays. Although rainfall is more erratic in general, as this May has just proven. Again, proof will be in the pudding when the stats are collated after this summer. Is it actually a standard oceanic climate, or is it now leaning heavily towards warm-summer Med...?

[JohnnyKarelian]

What is a typical “warm-summer Mediterranean” climate like in winter ? And the Southern UK has the same weather in winter to true “warm-summer Mediterranean” climate? As I have no clue. 

[UK_Palms]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyKarelian said:

What is a typical “warm-summer Mediterranean” climate like in winter ? And the Southern UK has the same weather in winter to true “warm-summer Mediterranean” climate? As I have no clue. 

Warm-summer Med climates are obviously warm and dry in summer, but then they are cool/mild and wet in winter. The majority of the rainfall comes during the cooler months. 

While the UK as a whole is quite clearly a temperature oceanic climate, the southeast of England is definitely moving towards warm-summer Med (csb). It may already be csb in London, Kent, Essex, Surrey and Sussex, going by the statistics post 2010. It needs to be assessed longer term though before it could be reclassified.

The temperatures being forecast are being scaled up by the hour here. June is going to be very dry and warm. The complete polar opposite to May/April, but then you would expect the high pressure change and warm-dry conditions come June in a zone that is trending towards csb.

[Samuel]

13 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I have only reached 26.1C (79F) here in my garden on Monday, meaning that March 30th will go down as my warmest day of spring this year, back when I recorded 26.9C (80F). I think that is the first time since records began that the highest spring temperature was recorded in March, for Surrey at least. A lot of places in the UK have exceeded their March 30th temperature today though, since they were not as warm as I was here in late March. Even the Scottish highlands reached 25C (77F) today, which is obviously their warmest temperature of the year so far. 

Locally temperatures around here have been in the 24-27C range. Some stations in nearby Guildford and Godalming were reading 27C+, which could be legit, but it is doubtful. Those stations are far from being official, or having stevenson screens. It does appear that the centre of Guildford may have reached 27C / 80F however. They were probably about 1C warmer than my rural location just outside of town...

 

 

Here are some stations near my village, showing a temp range of 76F - 83F...

 

Ashford in northeast Surrey appeared to be a bit of a hotspot on Monday...

 

 

 

Here is an interesting piece on the 'record' breaking spring we have just had. Here in Surrey it was my driest, sunniest and frostiest April on record, whereas May was also my wettest on record. The injection of heat and sunshine in recent days has however prevented May from being the coldest and least sunny on record for me, which it was on course to be until recent days...

 

 

The record breaking cold spring already feels like an eternity away now that we have been bathed in sunshine and heat the past few days. It's officially the start of meteorological summer tomorrow and the southeast & London are probably going to be looking at highs of 25-26C again. Possibly 27C in a few places. Wednesday is going to be the big one though. Depending on how much cloud cover there is, some places may reach 30C on Wednesday. After that temperatures will drop back down to 22-23C, but there appears to be a big plume of Saharan air moving up next week as well, which could bring highs of 34-35C on the high end, or about 28-29C on the low end. So it looks like June is going to be doing it's best to make up for the abysmal spring.

 

There's the possibility of some thunderstorms on Wednesday, but they will be towards the west and pretty isolated. I doubt I will get any here. The high pressure system isn't going to budge now. It looks like the heat is going to be really supercharged towards the middle of June if the long range forecasts are anything to go by. One of the models is showing 36C for 12th June, but that is almost 2 weeks away. Surely it won't go from being one of the coldest May's on record to potentially the hottest June on record for the southeast of England!? Talk about a contrast.

 

@Teegurr Further to our previous discussion, you can see that high pressure is locking in hard now that we are going into summer. May was a freak record breaker here, but now you can see that precipitation is being suppressed and temperatures have climbed rapidly, compared to how things were 1-2 weeks ago. The freak cold spring aside, the weather pattern is not behaving like you would expect in a typical oceanic climate, due to the clear skies, low humidity and absence of summer rainfall during the warmer months. Especially up here at 51N. This will probably become more and more pronounced as we go further into summer. The Azores high is yet to fully establish itself too, so the rainfall suppression will become more pronounced in a few weeks. 

Keep an eye on the temperatures and rainfall in southeastern England this summer. Sure, it could break down again in the coming weeks, but I suspect it will qualify as warm-summer Med come September, primarily due to that absence of summer rainfall and also the summer heat. Somewhere in the southeast will almost certainly exceed 38C this summer. Parts of southeastern England, especially Kent and Sussex, are drier and warmer in summer nowadays than some of the true warm-summer Med climates. Seattle, Washington and Victoria, BC come to mind. Of course the longer term stats will say otherwise, but the rainfall patterns have totally changed here nowadays. Although rainfall is more erratic in general, as this May has just proven. Again, proof will be in the pudding when the stats are collated after this summer. Is it actually a standard oceanic climate, or is it now leaning heavily towards warm-summer Med...?

[Samuel]

1 minute ago, Samuel said:

13 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I have only reached 26.1C (79F) here in my garden on Monday, meaning that March 30th will go down as my warmest day of spring this year, back when I recorded 26.9C (80F). I think that is the first time since records began that the highest spring temperature was recorded in March, for Surrey at least. A lot of places in the UK have exceeded their March 30th temperature today though, since they were not as warm as I was here in late March. Even the Scottish highlands reached 25C (77F) today, which is obviously their warmest temperature of the year so far. 

Locally temperatures around here have been in the 24-27C range. Some stations in nearby Guildford and Godalming were reading 27C+, which could be legit, but it is doubtful. Those stations are far from being official, or having stevenson screens. It does appear that the centre of Guildford may have reached 27C / 80F however. They were probably about 1C warmer than my rural location just outside of town...

 

 

Here are some stations near my village, showing a temp range of 76F - 83F...

 

Ashford in northeast Surrey appeared to be a bit of a hotspot on Monday...

 

 

 

Here is an interesting piece on the 'record' breaking spring we have just had. Here in Surrey it was my driest, sunniest and frostiest April on record, whereas May was also my wettest on record. The injection of heat and sunshine in recent days has however prevented May from being the coldest and least sunny on record for me, which it was on course to be until recent days...

 

 

The record breaking cold spring already feels like an eternity away now that we have been bathed in sunshine and heat the past few days. It's officially the start of meteorological summer tomorrow and the southeast & London are probably going to be looking at highs of 25-26C again. Possibly 27C in a few places. Wednesday is going to be the big one though. Depending on how much cloud cover there is, some places may reach 30C on Wednesday. After that temperatures will drop back down to 22-23C, but there appears to be a big plume of Saharan air moving up next week as well, which could bring highs of 34-35C on the high end, or about 28-29C on the low end. So it looks like June is going to be doing it's best to make up for the abysmal spring.

 

There's the possibility of some thunderstorms on Wednesday, but they will be towards the west and pretty isolated. I doubt I will get any here. The high pressure system isn't going to budge now. It looks like the heat is going to be really supercharged towards the middle of June if the long range forecasts are anything to go by. One of the models is showing 36C for 12th June, but that is almost 2 weeks away. Surely it won't go from being one of the coldest May's on record to potentially the hottest June on record for the southeast of England!? Talk about a contrast.

 

@Teegurr Further to our previous discussion, you can see that high pressure is locking in hard now that we are going into summer. May was a freak record breaker here, but now you can see that precipitation is being suppressed and temperatures have climbed rapidly, compared to how things were 1-2 weeks ago. The freak cold spring aside, the weather pattern is not behaving like you would expect in a typical oceanic climate, due to the clear skies, low humidity and absence of summer rainfall during the warmer months. Especially up here at 51N. This will probably become more and more pronounced as we go further into summer. The Azores high is yet to fully establish itself too, so the rainfall suppression will become more pronounced in a few weeks. 

Keep an eye on the temperatures and rainfall in southeastern England this summer. Sure, it could break down again in the coming weeks, but I suspect it will qualify as warm-summer Med come September, primarily due to that absence of summer rainfall and also the summer heat. Somewhere in the southeast will almost certainly exceed 38C this summer. Parts of southeastern England, especially Kent and Sussex, are drier and warmer in summer nowadays than some of the true warm-summer Med climates. Seattle, Washington and Victoria, BC come to mind. Of course the longer term stats will say otherwise, but the rainfall patterns have totally changed here nowadays. Although rainfall is more erratic in general, as this May has just proven. Again, proof will be in the pudding when the stats are collated after this summer. Is it actually a standard oceanic climate, or is it now leaning heavily towards warm-summer Med...?

Summers are not getting drier in southern England only 3 summers have been drier then average since 2007 they are 2013 2016 2018 all other summers have been wetter and duller then the average summers in the 90s were much better then what we have seen recently also I doubt anywhere will reach 38 degrees that is incredibly rare more likely reach 32 and that’s at a push we are not a warm summer med climate and never will be even with global warming 

[UK_Palms]

6 minutes ago, Samuel said:

Summers are not getting drier in southern England only 3 summers have been drier then average since 2007 they are 2013 2016 2018 all other summers have been wetter and duller then the average summers in the 90s were much better then what we have seen recently also I doubt anywhere will reach 38 degrees that is incredibly rare more likely reach 32 and that’s at a push we are not a warm summer med climate and never will be even with global warming 

What part of the UK are you from then? I just notice that this is your first post and this account has just recently been set up.

Summer’s are definitely getting drier than they used to be here. The change isn’t even gradual, it is actually quite a drastic shift that is very noticeable. If I look at the past 5 years, June has averaged just 0.5 inches here although June 2018 saw 0.0 inches, which brings the average down considerably. It’s still pretty dry nowadays though.

The rainfall used to be more evenly spaced out across the year, but now there are enormous spikes in precipitation in the Oct - Feb period when about 70-80% of the annual rainfall occurs. Then hardly anything from April - August, with June being particularly dry. Of course it can vary year on year, as this May has shown. Although this spring was a freak record breaker. But even May last year, in 2020, had 0.0 inches of rain as well. So you must acknowledge the decrease in rainfall from April - September here. I am only speaking for southeastern England. 

[JohnnyKarelian]

@UK_Palms Yeah looking at the temps now compared to the past two months it’s like they at once cranked up the heating. Also in Western Europe! Big difference but I think it’s kind of normal, as summer is so near. 

[UK_Palms]

46 minutes ago, JohnnyKarelian said:

@UK_Palms Yeah looking at the temps now compared to the past two months it’s like they at once cranked up the heating. Also in Western Europe! Big difference but I think it’s kind of normal, as summer is so near. 

I’m currently at 27C / 80F here, but that will rise a bit further under the clear skies. Central Guildford is hovering around 28C now. A massive recovery on the temperatures that we were seeing just 1-2 weeks back. 

 

There’s still another 2 hours of hearing to go yet here. Warmest period is around 4pm at this time of year. Expecting to reach 29C here probably. 

[Samuel]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

What part of the UK are you from then? I just notice that this is your first post and this account has just recently been set up.

Summer’s are definitely getting drier than they used to be here. The change isn’t even gradual, it is actually quite a drastic shift that is very noticeable. If I look at the past 5 years, June has averaged just 0.5 inches here although June 2018 saw 0.0 inches, which brings the average down considerably. It’s still pretty dry nowadays though.

The rainfall used to be more evenly spaced out across the year, but now there are enormous spikes in precipitation in the Oct - Feb period when about 70-80% of the annual rainfall occurs. Then hardly anything from April - August, with June being particularly dry. Of course it can vary year on year, as this May has shown. Although this spring was a freak record breaker. But even May last year, in 2020, had 0.0 inches of rain as well. So you must acknowledge the decrease in rainfall from April - September here. I am only speaking for southeastern England. 

I’m in southern England about a 12 minute drive from Heathrow there is definitely more variation in rainfall but summers are not getting drier they maybe where you are but the majority of the uk including southeast England is getting warmer wetter summers only June 2018 has been dry all other June’s since 2015 have been average to much wetter than average same with July and august spring is the only season that I have noticed a decline in rainfall the climate is definitely changing no doubt about it but it’s not turning into the med 

[UK_Palms]

4 hours ago, Samuel said:

I’m in southern England about a 12 minute drive from Heathrow there is definitely more variation in rainfall but summers are not getting drier they maybe where you are but the majority of the uk including southeast England is getting warmer wetter summers only June 2018 has been dry all other June’s since 2015 have been average to much wetter than average same with July and august spring is the only season that I have noticed a decline in rainfall the climate is definitely changing no doubt about it but it’s not turning into the med 

 

I can categorically say that summer's are noticeably drier here, especially in June. As I have previously said, I am averaging about 0.5 inches of rainfall in June nowadays. That is pretty dry for any climatic zone, let alone an oceanic one. Also droughts are far more common now too, with most summers seeing spells of 15-20 days without a drop of rainfall nowadays.

You are out in the western suburbs of London, which is also the wettest area within the city limits. Probably the wettest area in the entire southeast. I mean parts of southern and east London receive almost a third less rainfall than you do near Heathrow. So maybe that is something to also factor in, when assessing a climatic shift in the southeast of England. And that shift is evidently there, both in regards to rainfall and temperature.

I don't think we are "turning into the Med" either. I just think parts of southeast England are edging towards a warm-summer Med climate. I'm talking Csb climate zone classification, due to the decreasing summer rainfall and the much higher, and increasing, winter rainfall. The massive contrast is very noticeable here. I can't be bothered to dig out all the data for each summer month since 2010, but here is last year's Met recordings, during what was supposedly a 'wet' summer for the UK...  well, if you happen to live outside of the southeast anyway...

I'll begin with May, since that is probably relevant due to how damn dry and warm it was. I recorded 0.0 inches which was 0% of my long-term average...

June was just marginally drier than average for me here with about 75-80% of my long term average...

July definitely had below average rainfall across the entire south of England. I only had about 45% of my long-term average. 

August was the wettest summer month, but again the southeast only has average - slightly below average rainfall, compared to the rest of England that got lots of thunderstorm activity (so in theory the southeast should also be looking at higher than average like the rest of England, yet it isn't). I had about 80% of my long term average, whereas England in general had 175%+...

 

Very, very dry across the board in September too, which is basically an extension of summer still. I had about 10% of my long term average rainfall...

 

Now onto October 2020... and you can probably see where I am going with this. As I have stressed before, April - September is becoming increasingly dry here (evidenced above), whereas come October and going into winter, the rainfall is increasing more and more. In October 2020 I saw 180% of my average rainfall. The first month out of the previous 6 where the rainfall is actually above average. And considerably so. You see the same thing in Csb climates too, and by that I mean not much rain at all during summer, then suddenly heavy rains start up in October...

There is a lot more to it than this, but I can't be bothered to expand further. Let's just see how this summer turns out. It looks like this June is going to be very warm and dry, akin to May 2020, but obviously warmer. It may be like June 2018 when 0.0 inches were recorded here. I suspect July will be pretty damn dry and warm too. August may be a 'wet' month, which breaks the cycle, but only time will tell. It's probably going to trend towards Csb again as I have been saying. It's also worth noting the massive decline in summer rainfall over northern Scotland. Something not many people really pick up on. 

[Teegurr]

8 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

 

I can categorically say that summer's are noticeably drier here, especially in June. As I have previously said, I am averaging about 0.5 inches of rainfall in June nowadays. That is pretty dry for any climatic zone, let alone an oceanic one. Also droughts are far more common now too, with most summers seeing spells of 15-20 days without a drop of rainfall nowadays.

You are out in the western suburbs of London, which is also the wettest area within the city limits. Probably the wettest area in the entire southeast. I mean parts of southern and east London receive almost a third less rainfall than you do near Heathrow. So maybe that is something to also factor in, when assessing a climatic shift in the southeast of England. And that shift is evidently there, both in regards to rainfall and temperature.

I don't think we are "turning into the Med" either. I just think parts of southeast England are edging towards a warm-summer Med climate. I'm talking Csb climate zone classification, due to the decreasing summer rainfall and the much higher, and increasing, winter rainfall. The massive contrast is very noticeable here. I can't be bothered to dig out all the data for each summer month since 2010, but here is last year's Met recordings, during what was supposedly a 'wet' summer for the UK...  well, if you happen to live outside of the southeast anyway...

I'll begin with May, since that is probably relevant due to how damn dry and warm it was. I recorded 0.0 inches which was 0% of my long-term average...

June was just marginally drier than average for me here with about 75-80% of my long term average...

July definitely had below average rainfall across the entire south of England. I only had about 45% of my long-term average. 

August was the wettest summer month, but again the southeast only has average - slightly below average rainfall, compared to the rest of England that got lots of thunderstorm activity (so in theory the southeast should also be looking at higher than average like the rest of England, yet it isn't). I had about 80% of my long term average, whereas England in general had 175%+...

 

Very, very dry across the board in September too, which is basically an extension of summer still. I had about 10% of my long term average rainfall...

 

Now onto October 2020... and you can probably see where I am going with this. As I have stressed before, April - September is becoming increasingly dry here (evidenced above), whereas come October and going into winter, the rainfall is increasing more and more. In October 2020 I saw 180% of my average rainfall. The first month out of the previous 6 where the rainfall is actually above average. And considerably so. You see the same thing in Csb climates too, and by that I mean not much rain at all during summer, then suddenly heavy rains start up in October...

There is a lot more to it than this, but I can't be bothered to expand further. Let's just see how this summer turns out. It looks like this June is going to be very warm and dry, akin to May 2020, but obviously warmer. It may be like June 2018 when 0.0 inches were recorded here. I suspect July will be pretty damn dry and warm too. August may be a 'wet' month, which breaks the cycle, but only time will tell. It's probably going to trend towards Csb again as I have been saying. It's also worth noting the massive decline in summer rainfall over northern Scotland. Something not many people really pick up on. 

Looks like you're just basing this hunch that Southeast England is nearing a warm-summer mediterranean climate on last year or even cherry picking certain years that fit the narrative (I'm sorry to be harsh, but it's getting out of hand).

Even with that statement, look at these graphs from 2016-2020 of monthly precipitation in Hampstead Heath (probably a wet part of Southeast England, still, the patterns should be similar to the rest of the Southeast.

Some years do have a slightly mediterranean pattern, such as 2016, but this trend is sort of vague.

It is nowhere near the uniformity that defines true mediterranean climates.

 

[UK_Palms]

I recorded a high of 28C / 82F on Tuesday here. Nearby Guildford was about 29C / 84F during the hottest part of the day.

Just north of me...

Surrey was probably the hottest place in the UK for the second day running. The BBC forecast said tonight that Surrey will be the hottest place tomorrow, specifically around the Ashford-Sunbury-Walton area in the northeast of the county. Possibly 30C somewhere. Can't rule out Guildford or Woking hitting 30C either. I am expecting a high of 28C here again though.

The ARPEGE model has Cambridge down for 29C on Wednesday. 27-28C across the board in the southeast. Probably 28-29C for London. 

 

The Met Office has Kew Gardens in London down for 29C on Wednesday and then 27C on Thursday...

 

Not a bad start to summer, I suppose. It looks like Europe is about to get engulfed in a heatwave next week as well. Those temperatures aren't going to drop much as we go into the weekend.

[Samuel]

13 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

 

I can categorically say that summer's are noticeably drier here, especially in June. As I have previously said, I am averaging about 0.5 inches of rainfall in June nowadays. That is pretty dry for any climatic zone, let alone an oceanic one. Also droughts are far more common now too, with most summers seeing spells of 15-20 days without a drop of rainfall nowadays.

You are out in the western suburbs of London, which is also the wettest area within the city limits. Probably the wettest area in the entire southeast. I mean parts of southern and east London receive almost a third less rainfall than you do near Heathrow. So maybe that is something to also factor in, when assessing a climatic shift in the southeast of England. And that shift is evidently there, both in regards to rainfall and temperature.

I don't think we are "turning into the Med" either. I just think parts of southeast England are edging towards a warm-summer Med climate. I'm talking Csb climate zone classification, due to the decreasing summer rainfall and the much higher, and increasing, winter rainfall. The massive contrast is very noticeable here. I can't be bothered to dig out all the data for each summer month since 2010, but here is last year's Met recordings, during what was supposedly a 'wet' summer for the UK...  well, if you happen to live outside of the southeast anyway...

I'll begin with May, since that is probably relevant due to how damn dry and warm it was. I recorded 0.0 inches which was 0% of my long-term average...

June was just marginally drier than average for me here with about 75-80% of my long term average...

July definitely had below average rainfall across the entire south of England. I only had about 45% of my long-term average. 

August was the wettest summer month, but again the southeast only has average - slightly below average rainfall, compared to the rest of England that got lots of thunderstorm activity (so in theory the southeast should also be looking at higher than average like the rest of England, yet it isn't). I had about 80% of my long term average, whereas England in general had 175%+...

 

Very, very dry across the board in September too, which is basically an extension of summer still. I had about 10% of my long term average rainfall...

 

Now onto October 2020... and you can probably see where I am going with this. As I have stressed before, April - September is becoming increasingly dry here (evidenced above), whereas come October and going into winter, the rainfall is increasing more and more. In October 2020 I saw 180% of my average rainfall. The first month out of the previous 6 where the rainfall is actually above average. And considerably so. You see the same thing in Csb climates too, and by that I mean not much rain at all during summer, then suddenly heavy rains start up in October...

There is a lot more to it than this, but I can't be bothered to expand further. Let's just see how this summer turns out. It looks like this June is going to be very warm and dry, akin to May 2020, but obviously warmer. It may be like June 2018 when 0.0 inches were recorded here. I suspect July will be pretty damn dry and warm too. August may be a 'wet' month, which breaks the cycle, but only time will tell. It's probably going to trend towards Csb again as I have been saying. It's also worth noting the massive decline in summer rainfall over northern Scotland. Something not many people really pick up on. 

What you shows was that the majority had a wet summer last year there are a few spots that have slightly drier but even there it’s only slightly below average last summer was also duller then average so felt nothing like the med it took till the last day of July to get temps over 30 which is pretty poor for high summer also you say dry spells have become more common but the met office even state that dry spells and droughts have become less frequent. September is usually one of the drier months of the year that’s not new so don’t think that can be put down to a changing climate also September of the last 90- early 2000s were much warmer then what we have had over recent years 

 

[LivistonaFan]

4 hours ago, Teegurr said:

Looks like you're just basing this hunch that Southeast England is nearing a warm-summer mediterranean climate on last year or even cherry picking certain years that fit the narrative (I'm sorry to be harsh, but it's getting out of hand).

Even with that statement, look at these graphs from 2016-2020 of monthly precipitation in Hampstead Heath (probably a wet part of Southeast England, still, the patterns should be similar to the rest of the Southeast.

Some years do have a slightly mediterranean pattern, such as 2016, but this trend is sort of vague.

It is nowhere near the uniformity that defines true mediterranean climates.

 

True. There are some requirements for an climate to be classified as Csb:

requirements most / all parts of the Southeast UK meet:

1.  Coldest monthly average > 0 °C / 32 °F    (some sources state -3 °C)
2.  At least 4 months with average temperatures > 10 °C / 50 °F  

requirements few? / no parts of the Southeast UK meet (probably not even in e.g. 2016-2020):

1.  Precipitation of the driest summer month (April - September) < 30 mm   
2.  Precipitation of the driest summer month <= One third of the precipitation of the wettest winter month (October - March) 

Obviously  you have to choose the on average driest / wettest month for consecutive years and are not supposed to compare e.g. an exceptionally dry June with an exceptionally wet November.

Conclusion: Temperature-wise the Southeast UK meets the (quite low tbh) standards easily, but I doubt there is a place in the Southeast UK where both precipitation requirements are met. 

 

Now it's up to you @UK_Palms to show at least a single place in the UK which fulfills all these criteria for consecutive years or is at least a near miss.

[UK_Palms]

1 hour ago, Samuel said:

What you shows was that the majority had a wet summer last year there are a few spots that have slightly drier but even there it’s only slightly below average last summer was also duller then average so felt nothing like the med it took till the last day of July to get temps over 30 which is pretty poor for high summer also you say dry spells have become more common but the met office even state that dry spells and droughts have become less frequent. September is usually one of the drier months of the year that’s not new so don’t think that can be put down to a changing climate also September of the last 90- early 2000s were much warmer then what we have had over recent years 

 

What it shows is that the southeast of England was drier than the long-term average last summer, despite the fact that the UK in general had a wetter than average summer. So that's actually quite telling. It supports what I have been saying about declining summer rainfall in general and increasing autumn/winter rainfall, even during what is supposed to be a 'wet' summer for the UK. If the rainfall is closer to average across the UK this summer, then the southeast is going to be very dry again.

You are going to have to rely on it being an exceptionally wet summer in general, across the board, in the hope that the southeast just sees average rainfall alone. Otherwise summer rainfall will be drastically lower than the long-term average, again. I am only talking about the southeast though (Essex, Kent, London, Surrey, Sussex). Come summer it is like a different climate zone entirely to the southwest for instance. It is sunnier, drier, hotter. More so than it used to be. Maybe less so in Heathrow, compared to say Maidstone. 

Looking at the long range forecast for this June, it doesn't look like there is going to be any rain at all barely. Probably less than my 0.5 inch average post 2010. So June 2021 itself is going to be pushing the Csb debate for the southeast.  The Met Office and BBC Meteorologists themselves say that London will have the same climate as Barcelona by 2070. Hotter, drier summers and milder, wetter winters. They also acknowledge that summers are getting drier, not wetter. There is a clear trend towards Csb. London will supposedly have the same climate as Barcelona by 2050. 

Also, you can try to use the argument about seasonal lag preventing any 30C recordings until late July, but August certainly made up for that with a lot of heat. I recorded 7 consecutive days above 37C / 100F here. September was also pretty warm as well. Again, seasonal lag is another indicative of csb climates. The hottest month is usually in August and sometimes even September. It was a similar case last year in southeast England. And you're downplaying how warm it was too. 

I'm going to have to pull up a Met Office forecast from mid August 2020 now...

July 31st saw 100F here as did mid August...

London is London...

 

Even by the coast it was very hot in August... 

 

You would expect those sort of temps on the actual Mediterranean coast in August... not in southeastern England. The summers are getting both warmer and drier. 

[JohnnyKarelian]

31 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

The Met Office and BBC Meteorologists themselves say that London will have the same climate as Barcelona by 2070. Hotter, drier summers and milder, wetter winters. They also acknowledge that summers are getting drier, not wetter. There is a clear trend towards Csb. London will supposedly have the same climate as Barcelona by 2050. 

Which one is it then, 2070, or 2050? I wonder if Barcelona will have the same increase as London will have, it must be hard to live there by then because of the heat... I hope the climate change can turn in a different direction  

[Samuel]

31 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

What it shows is that the southeast of England was drier than the long-term average last summer, despite the fact that the UK in general had a wetter than average summer. So that's actually quite telling. It supports what I have been saying about declining summer rainfall in general and increasing autumn/winter rainfall, even during what is supposed to be a 'wet' summer for the UK. If the rainfall is closer to average across the UK this summer, then the southeast is going to be very dry again.

You are going to have to rely on it being an exceptionally wet summer in general, across the board, in the hope that the southeast just sees average rainfall alone. Otherwise summer rainfall will be drastically lower than the long-term average, again. I am only talking about the southeast though (Essex, Kent, London, Surrey, Sussex). Come summer it is like a different climate zone entirely to the southwest for instance. It is sunnier, drier, hotter. More so than it used to be. Maybe less so in Heathrow, compared to say Maidstone. 

Looking at the long range forecast for this June, it doesn't look like there is going to be any rain at all barely. Probably less than my 0.5 inch average post 2010. So June 2021 itself is going to be pushing the Csb debate for the southeast.  The Met Office and BBC Meteorologists themselves say that London will have the same climate as Barcelona by 2070. Hotter, drier summers and milder, wetter winters. They also acknowledge that summers are getting drier, not wetter. There is a clear trend towards Csb. London will supposedly have the same climate as Barcelona by 2050. 

Also, you can try to use the argument about seasonal lag preventing any 30C recordings until late July, but August certainly made up for that with a lot of heat. I recorded 7 consecutive days above 37C / 100F here. September was also pretty warm as well. Again, seasonal lag is another indicative of csb climates. The hottest month is usually in August and sometimes even September. It was a similar case last year in southeast England. And you're downplaying how warm it was too. 

I'm going to have to pull up a Met Office forecast from mid August 2020 now...

July 31st saw 100F here as did mid August...

London is London...

 

Even by the coast it was very hot in August... 

 

You would expect those sort of temps on the actual Mediterranean coast in August... not in southeastern England. The summers are getting both warmer and drier. 

We will have to agree to disagree last summer was poor tbh a super hot week in August doesn’t change it every month had sunshine below 200 hours away from the south coast.

I find it hard to believe you average 0.5 inches of rainfall in June when only June 2015 and 2018 were dry June 2016 was one of the wettest and dullest on record for London and the southeast 2017 was also wetter then average but it was sunny and very warm and 2019 was also wetter then average and cool until the last week of the month. Also the met office forecast that summers will become drier and hotter not that it’s already happening this is from and article where the met office states  summers between 2008-2017 were on average 20% wetter compared to 61-1990

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, JohnnyKarelian said:

Which one is it then, 2070, or 2050? I wonder if Barcelona will have the same increase as London will have, it must be hard to live there by then because of the heat... I hope the climate change can turn in a different direction  

I meant 2050...

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/environment-and-conservation201907londons-climate-will-resemble-barcelonas-2050-study-reveals

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-48947573

Of course there are no certainties with that. The scientists and meteorologists do seem to think that London will be a lot hotter and drier in summer. At which point it would be a full-on Med climate by then (Csb), if it was to actually resemble today's Barcelona. I'm not saying that will happen, but the 'experts' seem to think so. Then again, the 'experts' aren't right about everything. 

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Samuel said:

We will have to agree to disagree last summer was poor tbh a super hot week in August doesn’t change it every month had sunshine below 200 hours away from the south coast.

I find it hard to believe you average 0.5 inches of rainfall in June when only June 2015 and 2018 were dry June 2016 was one of the wettest and dullest on record for London and the southeast 2017 was also wetter then average but it was sunny and very warm and 2019 was also wetter then average and cool until the last week of the month. Also the met office forecast that summers will become drier and hotter not that it’s already happening this is from and article where the met office states  summers between 2008-2017 were on average 20% wetter compared to 61-1990

Well I had slightly below average rainfall totals across all the summer months, with the shoulder months of May and September being particularly dry here. So summer on the whole was on the dry side here. That can be seen in the Met's rainfall maps that I posted for each month. August and September certainly made up for the lower than average temps in June and July. There was quite a bit of sunshine as well. I harvested the best tomatoes and peppers that I ever had last year. Summer 2020 really wasn't that bad.

Also, I'm not saying that we are a Med climate and full on Csb, it's just that I am seeing the decline in summer rainfall first hand here and can clearly see us trending towards Csb here. I am noticing a lot more summer droughts and less rain days. It just seems way drier in general from about April - September. Perhaps the geography/topography of my location means that I am drier here? But like you said, maybe we will have to agree to disagree on that. There are parts of Kent and Essex as well that are very dry, even compared to my location. 

What do you make of the longer range forecast for this June, beyond the weekend? It's looking pretty dry and warm for the entire first half of June here, with no breakdown. There's the possibility of some very hot weather around the 9th - 11th as well. I saw one model reading 36C for London on the 10th, during the big European heatwave that looks set to move in early next week. The overnight lows are really starting to creep up now as well. I think July will have record breaking heat and drought this year with August being cool and wet. If August and September see the best weather again though, it could be yet more evidence of the seasonal lag and transition towards a Csb climate. Or the entirety of summer could just be hot and dry this year...? There's multiple scenarios.

Here's the longer range forecast for Kew, London...

It looks like it is going to cool down briefly on Friday, before very warm conditions return quite promptly...

 

Here's the latest ECMWF model showing high pressure firmly in control on 11th June still, with the airflow coming directly from the Mediterranean. That close to the summer solstice, I would expect temperatures to be well into the 30's C with clear skies. I think 35-36C will be possible for London on 11th or 12th. Maybe as early as the 9th. This is definitely something to watch.

I expect the BBC and Met Office forecasts to adjust in the coming days. It looks like even hotter air may be coming up from north Africa in mid June. There is definite Csb influence going on there in southeast England, but I also acknowledge that it is not a consistent theme, like how last June was relatively wet and cool. This June appears to be the polar opposite. Warm and dry. Not your standard oceanic set-up though for early summer.

[Samuel]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

Well I had slightly below average rainfall totals across all the summer months, with the shoulder months of May and September being particularly dry here. So summer on the whole was on the dry side here. That can be seen in the Met's rainfall maps that I posted for each month. August and September certainly made up for the lower than average temps in June and July. There was quite a bit of sunshine as well. I harvested the best tomatoes and peppers that I ever had last year. Summer 2020 really wasn't that bad.

Also, I'm not saying that we are a Med climate and full on Csb, it's just that I am seeing the decline in summer rainfall first hand here and can clearly see us trending towards Csb here. I am noticing a lot more summer droughts and less rain days. It just seems way drier in general from about April - September. Perhaps the geography/topography of my location means that I am drier here? But like you said, maybe we will have to agree to disagree on that. There are parts of Kent and Essex as well that are very dry, even compared to my location. 

What do you make of the longer range forecast for this June, beyond the weekend? It's looking pretty dry and warm for the entire first half of June here, with no breakdown. There's the possibility of some very hot weather around the 9th - 11th as well. I saw one model reading 36C for London on the 10th, during the big European heatwave that looks set to move in early next week. The overnight lows are really starting to creep up now as well. I think July will have record breaking heat and drought this year with August being cool and wet. If August and September see the best weather again though, it could be yet more evidence of the seasonal lag and transition towards a Csb climate. Or the entirety of summer could just be hot and dry this year...? There's multiple scenarios.

Here's the longer range forecast for Kew, London...

It looks like it is going to cool down briefly on Friday, before very warm conditions return quite promptly...

 

Here's the latest ECMWF model showing high pressure firmly in control on 11th June still, with the airflow coming directly from the Mediterranean. That close to the summer solstice, I would expect temperatures to be well into the 30's C with clear skies. I think 35-36C will be possible for London on 11th or 12th. Maybe as early as the 9th. This is definitely something to watch.

I expect the BBC and Met Office forecasts to adjust in the coming days. It looks like even hotter air may be coming up from north Africa in mid June. There is definite Csb influence going on there in southeast England, but I also acknowledge that it is not a consistent theme, like how last June was relatively wet and cool. This June appears to be the polar opposite. Warm and dry. Not your standard oceanic set-up though for early summer.

The outlook does certainly look good for June I’m getting very June 2018 vibes about it which was dry and sunny uk wide not sure it’s going to be crazy hot most likely mid to high twenties down here and low to mid twenties up north not seeing anything to suggest mid 30 type weather that’s very rare for June think the record is 35.6. Whether  this is the start of a hot summer setting up is hard to say IMO I’ve seen a few forecasts for front loaded summer so the best weather in June before it goes down the pan by mid July and august either way my palm tree will be loving the next few weeks great growing weather 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Samuel

[UK_Palms]

The highest I recorded today was 29C / 84F in the shade here at around 1pm. Temperatures peaked quite early on due to the arrival of cloud cover. It looks like there were some places in Surrey and London that may have reached 30-31C / 86-88F. 

 

Temperatures just to the south of me...

Snapshot of London temps at 3pm (degrees C)

 

I'm actually glad it's cooling down a bit tomorrow and on Friday. I know I was moaning lots about how cold and wet it was a few weeks back, but I have struggled the past two days in both my actual job and getting stuff done in the garden. I came home from work today with a splitting headache and had to sit straight in front of the fan with a cold flannel on my forehead. It's still a muggy 20C right now at 11:30pm here, after a brief rain shower earlier (<1mm). Probably looking at a low of 16C tonight now due to cloud cover. 

[Samuel]

On 6/3/2021 at 3:44 AM, UK_Palms said:

The highest I recorded today was 29C / 84F in the shade here at around 1pm. Temperatures peaked quite early on due to the arrival of cloud cover. It looks like there were some places in Surrey and London that may have reached 30-31C / 86-88F. 

 

Temperatures just to the south of me...

Snapshot of London temps at 3pm (degrees C)

 

I'm actually glad it's cooling down a bit tomorrow and on Friday. I know I was moaning lots about how cold and wet it was a few weeks back, but I have struggled the past two days in both my actual job and getting stuff done in the garden. I came home from work today with a splitting headache and had to sit straight in front of the fan with a cold flannel on my forehead. It's still a muggy 20C right now at 11:30pm here, after a brief rain shower earlier (<1mm). Probably looking at a low of 16C tonight now due to cloud cover. 

Those temperatures looks very off no where recorded over 30 lol and looking at the forecast after this week it looks like turning cooler and wetter so still nothing like a summer med climate and from what I’ve heard July is looking like a cool and wet month we will probably have the first June since 2016 not to achieve 30c 

[UK_Palms]

3 hours ago, Samuel said:

Those temperatures looks very off no where recorded over 30 lol and looking at the forecast after this week it looks like turning cooler and wetter so still nothing like a summer med climate and from what I’ve heard July is looking like a cool and wet month we will probably have the first June since 2016 not to achieve 30c 

Those temperatures weren't 'off' as you say, since I have screenshotted a number of Surrey locations showing consistent readings in 27-30C range earlier in the week. All those stations collectively aren't wrong. Even if some are off by a few degrees, collectively they all show temperatures in the 27-30C range. I would stand by those recordings in general, since they give a good reflection of the temps in a certain area, even if they are not 100% accurate. Besides, the Met confirmed 28-29C recordings at Northolt and Kew anyway.

The issue is that 'official' stations are few and far between and there are no 'official' stations in residential areas of Surrey. The station at Wisley is right out in the open with no UHI or buildings nearby, so it usually runs 1-2C below Guildford's max temperature, or my temperature here. The station at Farnborough isn't even in Surrey, it's in Hampshire. On winter nights especially, the Farnborough station can run a good 2C below Guildford's temperature. The same can be said for the hottest days in summer too, when Farnborough may be at 35C but Guildford reaches 37C. 

Also, the Spanish Med has just been absolutely soaked by heavy rain and storms a few days ago with highs of just 21C in places like Malaga and Ibiza yesterday. So it has been drier and warmer here in southern England, with a high of 25.1C yesterday, and a high of 24.4C right now here. So even true Med climates, like southern Spain, get rain and cooler temps in summer sometimes. So the fact that we have had some rain or cooler temps as well doesn't mean we are miles away from being warm-summer Med here in southeastern England.

 

 

Again, Victoria in British Columbia is considered 'warm-summer Med' yet they surprisingly have a high of just 14C and rain today. Quite a bit of rain to come as well next week...

Compared to London's forecast...

 

Plus you may not have got the memo, but it looks like potentially record breaking heat moving in between the 11th and 19th of June. Temperatures are expected to spike around the 13th but could be later around the 18th as the Azores high sits directly over us. Some of the models are forecasting 37C for London. There might be a brief breakdown as a low tries to push in around the 20th, but the end of June is going to be particularly hot and dry by the looks of things. July as well looks to be hot as it stands with high pressure dominating and suppressed rainfall, which will give more credence to the Csb debate for the southeast of England...

These are runs to the 13th...

 

And still looking very positive on the 18th...

 

Of course it is still too early to say how things will shape up in a week, or a month's time even, but the signs are looking good. This summer may fuel the Csb debate further. And no, I don't think we are Csb here, but we are clearly transitioning towards it in my opinion. Rainfall is decreasing over summer with droughts more likely, whereas winter and autumn rainfall is increasing. 

[Samuel]

19 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Those temperatures weren't 'off' as you say, since I have screenshotted a number of Surrey locations showing consistent readings in 27-30C range earlier in the week. All those stations collectively aren't wrong. Even if some are off by a few degrees, collectively they all show temperatures in the 27-30C range. I would stand by those recordings in general, since they give a good reflection of the temps in a certain area, even if they are not 100% accurate. Besides, the Met confirmed 28-29C recordings at Northolt and Kew anyway.

The issue is that 'official' stations are few and far between and there are no 'official' stations in residential areas of Surrey. The station at Wisley is right out in the open with no UHI or buildings nearby, so it usually runs 1-2C below Guildford's max temperature, or my temperature here. The station at Farnborough isn't even in Surrey, it's in Hampshire. On winter nights especially, the Farnborough station can run a good 2C below Guildford's temperature. The same can be said for the hottest days in summer too, when Farnborough may be at 35C but Guildford reaches 37C. 

Also, the Spanish Med has just been absolutely soaked by heavy rain and storms a few days ago with highs of just 21C in places like Malaga and Ibiza yesterday. So it has been drier and warmer here in southern England, with a high of 25.1C yesterday, and a high of 24.4C right now here. So even true Med climates, like southern Spain, get rain and cooler temps in summer sometimes. So the fact that we have had some rain or cooler temps as well doesn't mean we are miles away from being warm-summer Med here in southeastern England.

 

 

Again, Victoria in British Columbia is considered 'warm-summer Med' yet they surprisingly have a high of just 14C and rain today. Quite a bit of rain to come as well next week...

Compared to London's forecast...

 

Plus you may not have got the memo, but it looks like potentially record breaking heat moving in between the 11th and 19th of June. Temperatures are expected to spike around the 13th but could be later around the 18th as the Azores high sits directly over us. Some of the models are forecasting 37C for London. There might be a brief breakdown as a low tries to push in around the 20th, but the end of June is going to be particularly hot and dry by the looks of things. July as well looks to be hot as it stands with high pressure dominating and suppressed rainfall, which will give more credence to the Csb debate for the southeast of England...

These are runs to the 13th...

 

And still looking very positive on the 18th...

 

Of course it is still too early to say how things will shape up in a week, or a month's time even, but the signs are looking good. This summer may fuel the Csb debate further. And no, I don't think we are Csb here, but we are clearly transitioning towards it in my opinion. Rainfall is decreasing over summer with droughts more likely, whereas winter and autumn rainfall is increasing. 

Those temps you showed are off one place is supposedly 31 but another station not far away has 26 doesn’t add up and yes even the med gets cool and wet weather even in summer difference is it’s rarer and doesn’t last as long like it does here. I don’t Know where you are getting record heat from no model is forecasting temps of 35+ We may get 30 this coming weekend but next week looks to return to cool and unsettled London is not a warm summer med climate the summers are not dry enough despite what you keep saying and I can prove it 

as you can see there has been no decline in summer rainfall even in the extreme south most summers have average to above average  rainfall 

 

Edited June 7, 2021 by Samuel

[UK_Palms]

Let’s add summer 2020 to it as well to be totally transparent...

There has been just as many below average rainfall summers as above average for the southeast, post 2010. However, what the graphs don’t show is the 6-8 week periods during summer when there is hardly any rainfall. That is what I am on about and the graphs above don’t reflect that. 

Usually there is a month with above average rainfall, either June or August, which bolsters up the summer average. It’s the 6-8 weeks before, or after, the above average rainfall month where rainfall is scarce. Often just a few mm of rain in the space of a month or two these days. 

So there is a definite ‘dry’ period pretty much every summer that is becoming more pronounced. It can vary year or year though. This summer will probably back up what I have been saying. There is clearly evidence that the southeast is becoming drier in summer, compared to the rest of the UK, even looking at the summer rainfall as a whole.  But again it doesn’t reflect the dry period we see most summers nowadays.

[Samuel]

33 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Let’s add summer 2020 to it as well to be totally transparent...

There has been just as many below average rainfall summers as above average for the southeast, post 2010. However, what the graphs don’t show is the 6-8 week periods during summer when there is hardly any rainfall. That is what I am on about and the graphs above don’t reflect that. 

Usually there is a month with above average rainfall, either June or August, which bolsters up the summer average. It’s the 6-8 weeks before, or after, the above average rainfall month where rainfall is scarce. Often just a few mm of rain in the space of a month or two these days. 

So there is a definite ‘dry’ period pretty much every summer that is becoming more pronounced. It can vary year or year though. This summer will probably back up what I have been saying. There is clearly evidence that the southeast is becoming drier in summer, compared to the rest of the UK, even looking at the summer rainfall as a whole.  But again it doesn’t reflect the dry period we see most summers nowadays.

Nope most summers as shows are wet there is 3 dry summers in those charts I’ve showed the rest are average to wet dry spells have always been normal in summer down here it’s nothing new actually if anything dry spells during summer have decreased as said by the met office them selves you might need to study the history of the uk climate you will see that hot summers and droughts have always been a feature of our climate the great drought of the mid 70s as an example. In regards to climate change summers are forecast to become drier but as of yet there is no trend for that in fact it’s the opposite London is not transitioning to a summer med climate it may do in the future but as of now it’s still and oceanic climate with to much cloud and to much summer rainfall the only reason we can have palms is because of the milder winters but law of averages states that will will get one that kills them off even in the centre of London.

Edited June 7, 2021 by Samuel

[UK_Palms]

6 hours ago, Samuel said:

Nope most summers as shows are wet there is 3 dry summers in those charts I’ve showed the rest are average to wet dry spells have always been normal in summer down here it’s nothing new actually if anything dry spells during summer have decreased as said by the met office them selves you might need to study the history of the uk climate you will see that hot summers and droughts have always been a feature of our climate the great drought of the mid 70s as an example. In regards to climate change summers are forecast to become drier but as of yet there is no trend for that in fact it’s the opposite London is not transitioning to a summer med climate it may do in the future but as of now it’s still and oceanic climate with to much cloud and to much summer rainfall the only reason we can have palms is because of the milder winters but law of averages states that will will get one that kills them off even in the centre of London.

By my reckoning, 6 of the past 10 summers have seen below average rainfall here (2020, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2013 and 2011). 4 of the past 10 have seen above average rainfall (2019, 2017, 2011 and 2012). I'm not going to count average years, since it is either below the 'average' amount, or above it. Most of those wet summers have just seen heavy rainfalls at the shoulder ends of the season, even in early summer, or late summer, with lengthy dry spells in-between still. It does vary year on year though. Summer 2012 was the only genuine washout summer here. 

You really need to break it down into individual months to see the periods of drought that occurs pretty much every summer nowadays. Some years June is wet, followed by a hot, dry July and August. Other years it is June and July that are hot and dry, followed by a particularly wet August. The fact of the matter is that there is almost always a very dry period in summer nowadays, often lasting 1-2 months. The idea that droughts are less common nowadays is ridiculous. The Met Office themselves say that droughts are becoming increasingly more common. 

Also, let's not forget that September is also an extension of summer essentially, and consequently it is also a 'dry' month... and getting drier each year. I have had below average rainfall for the past 10 September's here pretty much...

That's over a decade straight of below average rainfall in September, more or less. Enough to suggest a definite shift in the rainfall pattern. Oceanic climates aren't supposed to be that dry in September, which is supposed to be the first month of autumn/fall. So there's definitely something going on there. I haven't been able to find the Met's rainfall % for some of those years, so I have had to use the actual rainfall total maps instead. Still it is pretty much below average every September nowadays. 

Regarding the palms in London, those big CIDP's will be pretty cold hardy now at their size and the temperature in the centre of London will not get anywhere near as cold as it has in the past, due to the enormous UHI effect nowadays. The UHI is getting more intense each year as well. And that's without even mentioning climate change or global warming on top of that as well. I don't think those big CIDP's will be going anywhere. I guess we'll know in another 20-30 years time, when London may potentially have skyduster CIDP's and Washies. I personally can't see them getting taken out now, for the reason's I have stated. If they don't get taken out there will be some really big specimens about in a few decades. 

Edited June 7, 2021 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

I don't even understand how we have flipped from record low temperatures for 2 months straight, right up to mid-late May, then a sudden switch to such warm weather in early June. It's literally like a switch has been flicked. Obviously the record spring cold was just a freak blip this year and temperatures would have inevitably recovered anyway, but even still it is one hell of a contrast compared to where we were just a few weeks back. I mean the past 10 days have been pretty warm in general now, but London is actually warmer than Los Angeles this week. Maybe it is mother nature balancing itself out, after the record spring cold perhaps?

Bearing in mind that we are only a week into June right now at 51N...

 

Looks like Kew is in for a hot week, according to the Met...

 

These are the temperatures forecast on the Euro model for Friday 11th, before the bulk of the heat even hits us. 31C in parts of Essex and East Anglia, apparently. A few places at 30C on Thursday too. If that is true, 35C will definitely be a possibility on Sunday or Monday in London as the heat is forecasted to continue building over the weekend. 

 

It looks like the first round of heat will peak on Sunday 13th now...

 

If the ECMWF is correct, which it probably is since it is the designated European forecast model, then London and southeast may see 35C around the 13th and 14th then a stonking 38C on the 19th when an even hotter barrage of Saharan air moves up. Paris may see 40C+.... in mid June! It looks like records are going to tumble across western Europe...

 

 

Not sure how much heat we will hang onto going into next week. Probably still 27-28C for London, but parts of southwest France & northeast Spain look to be hitting the 40's C still on 17th June, according to the ECMWF model. Paris still at 35C. The UK may cool down a bit midweek next week, as shown here, before the second onslaught of heat a few days later. A lot could change still. There may be no cool down between the two blasts of heat if the Azores High pushes back the Greenland low.

 

Looking at the 17th, it appears London may hang onto 30C+ temps during the 'cool' interlude, before the second wave of heat. Low pressure trying to push in from the Atlantic though. Western France and the Bay of Biscay still getting cooked in the oven. 

 

I wonder what this will mean for the rest of summer, as in come July and August...? I mean summer only started a week ago. At this point I wouldn't be shocked if London & Paris's all time record high's went this month in June, close to the summer solstice when the sun is strongest and days longest. Especially if that heat keeps building beyond next week.

I wonder if there is a link between the record heat in the arctic last month? Maybe it has caused something to flip in Europe. What a strange year 2021 has been so far...

[Samuel]

10 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

By my reckoning, 6 of the past 10 summers have seen below average rainfall here (2020, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2013 and 2011). 4 of the past 10 have seen above average rainfall (2019, 2017, 2011 and 2012). I'm not going to count average years, since it is either below the 'average' amount, or above it. Most of those wet summers have just seen heavy rainfalls at the shoulder ends of the season, even in early summer, or late summer, with lengthy dry spells in-between still. It does vary year on year though. Summer 2012 was the only genuine washout summer here. 

You really need to break it down into individual months to see the periods of drought that occurs pretty much every summer nowadays. Some years June is wet, followed by a hot, dry July and August. Other years it is June and July that are hot and dry, followed by a particularly wet August. The fact of the matter is that there is almost always a very dry period in summer nowadays, often lasting 1-2 months. The idea that droughts are less common nowadays is ridiculous. The Met Office themselves say that droughts are becoming increasingly more common. 

Also, let's not forget that September is also an extension of summer essentially, and consequently it is also a 'dry' month... and getting drier each year. I have had below average rainfall for the past 10 September's here pretty much...

That's over a decade straight of below average rainfall in September, more or less. Enough to suggest a definite shift in the rainfall pattern. Oceanic climates aren't supposed to be that dry in September, which is supposed to be the first month of autumn/fall. So there's definitely something going on there. I haven't been able to find the Met's rainfall % for some of those years, so I have had to use the actual rainfall total maps instead. Still it is pretty much below average every September nowadays. 

Regarding the palms in London, those big CIDP's will be pretty cold hardy now at their size and the temperature in the centre of London will not get anywhere near as cold as it has in the past, due to the enormous UHI effect nowadays. The UHI is getting more intense each year as well. And that's without even mentioning climate change or global warming on top of that as well. I don't think those big CIDP's will be going anywhere. I guess we'll know in another 20-30 years time, when London may potentially have skyduster CIDP's and Washies. I personally can't see them getting taken out now, for the reason's I have stated. If they don't get taken out there will be some really big specimens about in a few decades. 

September is on average one of the driest months of the year in the uk always has been so it’s not a change in rainfall pattern and is normal.

Secondly We just lived through the coldest April-may since 1941 if we got a winter as cold as one of the early 40s winters  every palm except  trachycarpus would be wiped out London UHI effect wouldn’t be enough to save them just look at  the beast from the east if it occurred a month earlier London would not of gotten above  -5c during the day and even lower at night look and that’s with out the wind chill  feb 1991 as a great example.  I Personally  hope those palms survive as there a great palm and look amazing I have one my self but don’t underestimate just how cold it can get here in winter even down here 

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Samuel said:

September is on average one of the driest months of the year in the uk always has been so it’s not a change in rainfall pattern and is normal.

Secondly We just lived through the coldest April-may since 1941 if we got a winter as cold as one of the early 40s winters  every palm except  trachycarpus would be wiped out London UHI effect wouldn’t be enough to save them just look at  the beast from the east if it occurred a month earlier London would not of gotten above  -5c during the day and even lower at night look and that’s with out the wind chill  feb 1991 as a great example.  I Personally  hope those palms survive as there a great palm and look amazing I have one my self but don’t underestimate just how cold it can get here in winter even down here 

September is getting progressively drier though, the same can be said with May and June too. When you compare the past decade with the long-term stats there is a clear decline in rainfall at the shoulder ends of summer, as well as mid-summer. July and August are a bit more averaged out, probably due to thunderstorms, but extreme dry spells in either month are becoming more common during mid-summer as well now. Then again when it does rain, it is heavier than it used to be too. 

Also I think the CIDP’s are safe in central London these days. The BFTE wasn’t that bad in London compared to other parts and should we get an event like that in January, I still don’t think it would be bad enough to wipe them out. Also it’s like saying that if the Texas freeze happened in mid January instead of mid Feb, then Dallas would have got down to -25C and Houston below -15C. I mean I’m not saying that couldn’t ever happen, but it is ridiculously unlikely. Same with London. I guess we’ll know in the coming decades...

[UK_Palms]

Yeah, London and the southeast of England definitely isn't trending towards warm-summer Med (Csb)...

 

 

Victoria in BC is considered 'warm-summer Med', yet their daytime high at 5pm is actually running lower than London's 1am temperature. It looks pretty wet this week as well there. Again, they are recognised as being actual Csb. 

Low pressure should push back the Azores High next week, bringing cooler and potentially wetter weather for us, but if a low doesn't then temperatures are going to really spike later on as we approach the summer solstice. This June's average high is already running at 24.2C here and I am on 0.09' of rainfall. Funny how the weather flipped to warm and dry the second we went into June. Must be a coincidence. Let's see how dry this summer turns out to be. The Met are already predicting July to be warmer and drier than average in their long range forecasting. I guess we will see...

[Samuel]

On 6/8/2021 at 10:54 AM, UK_Palms said:

September is getting progressively drier though, the same can be said with May and June too. When you compare the past decade with the long-term stats there is a clear decline in rainfall at the shoulder ends of summer, as well as mid-summer. July and August are a bit more averaged out, probably due to thunderstorms, but extreme dry spells in either month are becoming more common during mid-summer as well now. Then again when it does rain, it is heavier than it used to be too. 

Also I think the CIDP’s are safe in central London these days. The BFTE wasn’t that bad in London compared to other parts and should we get an event like that in January, I still don’t think it would be bad enough to wipe them out. Also it’s like saying that if the Texas freeze happened in mid January instead of mid Feb, then Dallas would have got down to -25C and Houston below -15C. I mean I’m not saying that couldn’t ever happen, but it is ridiculously unlikely. Same with London. I guess we’ll know in the coming decades...

Ok so there may be a small decline in September rainfall I’ll give you that but it’s not a strong change. Now let’s look at may and June you say they have become drier over the last decade let’s see I’ll start from 2007 and look at may  it’s very variable but I’m not seeing a trend to drier mays it all looks typical of an oceanic climate that varies year to year 

Now let’s look at June again back to 2007 again it’s highly variable some dry June’s and some very wet ones overall I’d say there is not much of a trend either way and actually since 2015 June’s have been on the wetter side of anything only 2018 comes out as dry 

 

[Samuel]

9 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Yeah, London and the southeast of England definitely isn't trending towards warm-summer Med (Csb)...

 

 

Victoria in BC is considered 'warm-summer Med', yet their daytime high at 5pm is actually running lower than London's 1am temperature. It looks pretty wet this week as well there. Again, they are recognised as being actual Csb. 

Low pressure should push back the Azores High next week, bringing cooler and potentially wetter weather for us, but if a low doesn't then temperatures are going to really spike later on as we approach the summer solstice. This June's average high is already running at 24.2C here and I am on 0.09' of rainfall. Funny how the weather flipped to warm and dry the second we went into June. Must be a coincidence. Let's see how dry this summer turns out to be. The Met are already predicting July to be warmer and drier than average in their long range forecasting. I guess we will see...

We are having an above average June potentially the hottest since 1976 this isn’t normal so can’t be compared to a summer med climate and next week looks to return to what’s  typical of an oceanic climate that we have e.g cloudy pleasant temperatures and some rain it’s to early to say what July or the rest of summer has in store but I’ve heard July isn’t forecast to be anything special probably average and I agree it  does feel like a switch has been flicked since the end of may but these swings from wet to dry are not unheard for the uk we may flip back wet for the rest of summer who knows 

[UK_Palms]

@Samuel What even is 'normal' these days? This year has truly been bizarre. It seems to go from one extreme to the other quite rapidly nowadays. Like going from freezing cold to suddenly boiling hot. Or from very dry, to very wet. Although it is relatively dry in general across the board in southeast of England. Drier than the global average. And that's before factoring in any climate change. Like you say, this summer could go either way, precipitation-wise. It's certainly odd's on to be a drier than average summer now though. I think August will be hot and dry since everything has been delayed this year and nature is still behind where it should be, plus the seasonal lag. 

I recorded 27C here today, but it looks like Guildford may have saw 28C / 82F. It was clear sunny skies all day long. UV must have been pushing level 9. I have got really bad sunburn on my face for the second time this year. I was out in the sun for about 30 minutes today and my face is burning right now as I type this. 

 

 

According to the Met, central London is going to hit 30C on Sunday. Possibly 30C on Monday as well. Looking a bit too dry as well. We could really do with some rain now. You wouldn't think twice if this was a mid-summer forecast in Rome or Sydney. 

 

 

While it will cool down a bit next week and we could possibly see a shower or two, temperatures are still going to be running at 20-25C. It will still be relatively 'warm' weather. There doesn't look like much rain either due to the Azores High sticking around to the south of us, providing a buffer against any Atlantic lows. 

The UKV Model puts central London at 30C on Monday as well as Sunday. Guildford at 29C. The northern regions of UK are an entirely different climatic zone to the southeast of England. Single digit highs in some parts of Scotland, when London hits 30C. Massive temperature contrast, especially during summer, since they are too far north to benefit from any Mediterranean influence. 

 

Here's the Met Model showing Mediterranean influence still at play on Wednesday 16th June. Southern England warmest and driest. Scotland, Ireland and northern England right in the buffer zone, or outside of it. Scandinavia also on the cold side. Real potential for some very hot weather moving up from north Africa into Europe next week. 

Edited June 9, 2021 by UK_Palms

[Samuel]

Look like once this week is out the way normal service will be resumed temperatures look like struggling into low twenties with plenty of cloud and showers around 
 

 

[UK_Palms]

It looks like temperatures are going to be closer to the long-term average for June between the 18th - 22nd. Quite a welcome respite from the heat frankly, which we are unaccustomed to after such a cool spring. The UV levels as well have been pretty intense under the clear skies. Hopefully a bit of rain too later next week, since it is really drying out here again now. 

It looks like Monday might be the hottest day now with 31C at Heathrow and Kew Gardens. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday all have the potential to reach 31-32C, possibly higher in a few places. The weather is world’s apart from where it was a few weeks back. It’s certainly trying it’s hardest to make up for the shite spring! There may be a big heatwave on the cards at the end of June as well, if the Azores High pushes back up, which I think it may do. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by UK_Palms

[Samuel]

5 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

It looks like temperatures are going to be closer to the long-term average for June between the 18th - 22nd. Quite a welcome respite from the heat frankly, which we are unaccustomed to after such a cool spring. The UV levels as well have been pretty intense under the clear skies. Hopefully a bit of rain too later next week, since it is really drying out here again now. 

It looks like Monday might be the hottest day now with 31C at Heathrow and Kew Gardens. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday all have the potential to reach 31-32C, possibly higher in a few places. The weather is world’s apart from where it was a few weeks back. It’s certainly trying it’s hardest to make up for the shite spring! There may be a big heatwave on the cards at the end of June as well, if the Azores High pushes back up, which I think it may do. 

No signs at the moment for any nice weather for the end of June it looks more like early autumn this chart looks horrendous this just helps prove  there is no transition to a summer med climate we are to far north to sustain heat and dry weather

[UK_Palms]

GEM model still showing highs of 33C / 92F in London next Wednesday still... suggesting the heat may stick around a bit longer, for western Europe in general...

 

The Euro model (ECM) puts high pressure just to the south of us on 20th June, buffering against the Icelandic low. Southeastern regions are not going to be effected as badly as you are making out. Scotland, Ireland, northern England may be wet and windy, but the southeast will remain relatively dry and warm. Highs of 20C / 68F and the possibility of a shower or two around 18th. The southeast still being influenced by Csb conditions. Not as sunny or warm as of late though, clearly...

 

Extended forecast doesn't look too bad for London. Just cooler and more windy later on. High pressure block still in effect in the south, to a degree, plus the cold seas further suppressing rainfall. The southeast should be okay. A week of 20C temperatures, with the odd shower. The west coast and northern regions will take the brunt of any low pressure systems moving in. Any rain that does fall in the southeast, and some will, should be pretty light and not amount to much really. 

 

The furthest runs do show the potential for a monster heatwave in late June with the Azores High centring over us again. Late June - early July should be pretty warm. Possibly hot. Similar conditions to what we have forecast this weekend. So low 30's C in London and southeast. The GFS model has high pressure around us and building on the 26th. Looks like the centre of the high is going to push up into the UK and France. 

 

Before any potential breakdown in the weather occurs, we still have a few warm-hot days to look forward to...