Summer weather in PNW talk

[Silas_Sancona]

24 minutes ago, amh said:

Bouteloua dactyloides (buffalo grass) is definitely what you want to try, it is able to withstand flood and drought and grows from the Gulf of Mexico to Canada. I don't know how it would respond to your specific soil, but it has deep roots and is good for stabilizing slopes.  

Would be interesting to see how it would do in the Pac. NW..  I know when certain strains were tried in Calif. they performed poorly ( poor germination, didn't establish well, dormant for as long as 6 months )  which was why the UC  Verde variety was developed.

Curly Mesquite, Hilaria belangeri, Black Grama, Bouteloua eriopoda, and False Grama, Cathestecum erectum  were 3 other low water grasses that were being evaluated as a potential turf alternative for AZ and CA before a program  at the U of AZ researching them was scrapped ..or stopped publishing research data.  Growing False Grama, and Curly Mesq. to work with later.

[amh]

24 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Would be interesting to see how it would do in the Pac. NW..  I know when certain strains were tried in Calif. they performed poorly ( poor germination, didn't establish well, dormant for as long as 6 months )  which was why the UC  Verde variety was developed.

Curly Mesquite, Hilaria belangeri, Black Grama, Bouteloua eriopoda, and False Grama, Cathestecum erectum  were 3 other low water grasses that were being evaluated as a potential turf alternative for AZ and CA before a program  at the U of AZ researching them was scrapped ..or stopped publishing research data.  Growing False Grama, and Curly Mesq. to work with later.

All great grasses to try; I've seen black grama thriving on the hill country/ Chihuahuan desert border.

This year is a bit of an anomaly for heat, but cereal rye might work in the PNW, as long as it is mowed. I've planted some in the Comfort TX area that grew uninterrupted for years.

[Chester B]

Thanks guys. I’ll see if I can locate these different varieties for a trial run. 

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Chester B said:

Thanks guys. I’ll see if I can locate these different varieties for a trial run. 

Blue Grama and Buffalo should be the easiest to track down (Not sure if the UC Verde / CA. Buffalograss variety is offered outside of CA yet though )  Others will be tougher to find, esp. as started plants / plugs.

Fyi: the " Blonde Ambition " cultivar of Blue Grama you'll probably come across is a much taller variety.. More of an ornamental - type application than the shorter, standard forms of the species you'd trial as a turf option / natural lawn area. 

[Chester B]

Looks like we're going back into the upper 80's and possibly low 90's for the next week.  Still no rain.

Last 6 months 3.82" of rain.  And everyone thinks it's always rainy here!  In an average year we are just over 3' which is pretty much spot on with the US national average, never mind a year like this one.

[Silas_Sancona]

54 minutes ago, Chester B said:

 

Last 6 months 3.82" of rain.  And everyone thinks it's always rainy here!  In an average year we are just over 3' which is pretty much spot on with the US national average, never mind a year like this one.

And at the same time, atop Mt. Lemmon in Tucson:   

...And that's just in 2.5 months..

[Chester B]

So what’s going on the rest of the PNW. Looks like we may finally tapering off the real heat this week in my neck of the woods. 
 

[Hutch]

Unreal , in Arizona...but u all need'd it..up here things are getting dire for rain ...been close to 3 months with out alittle more than sprinkles..the local trees are dropping there leaves here around me...though a lot are ash trees they still look terrible!..my Eucalyptus..look fine..

 

[Chester B]

So many dead trees here and ones that have been turning and dropping leaves just like your photos.   Why people plant maple trees around here I'll never understand - one of my pet peeves.  Even the native Big Leaf Maples and Vine maples look horrible, but they usually do at this time of year, but many dead mature Big Leafs.  And yes the Eucs here are doing great!

[Silas_Sancona]

On 9/6/2021 at 5:18 PM, Hutch said:

Unreal , in Arizona...but u all need'd it..up here things are getting dire for rain ...been close to 3 months with out alittle more than sprinkles..the local trees are dropping there leaves here around me...though a lot are ash trees they still look terrible!..my Eucalyptus..look fine..

 

 A very unexpected summer here for sure.. After the last two, most people were expecting something half way normal rainfall-wise.. not quite what it ended up being.. a good thing no doubt, even if it only puts a brief dent the longer term drought.

Not surprised the Eucs are doing well.. This is almost a mirror image of how they handle the typical summer drought back in California.. ( let alone almost year long drought / dry, hot conditions here ) Trade off is susceptibility to wind damage ( on big trees ) during storms.

3 hours ago, Chester B said:

So many dead trees here and ones that have been turning and dropping leaves just like your photos.   Why people plant maple trees around here I'll never understand - one of my pet peeves.  Even the native Big Leaf Maples and Vine maples look horrible, but they usually do at this time of year, but many dead mature Big Leafs.  And yes the Eucs here are doing great!

You'll laugh but they still use cool climate tree choices like red / silver / other Maples in San Jose.. and yes, lol have even seen the remains of a couple here..  Chinese Pistache is also a popular " Fall foliage " tree here though they take much more drought / heat.  Don't color up well ( too warm thru the winter 98% of the time ) though.

Back in San Jose, those are probably the best trees you could plant for fall color in that climate.. Just have to be sure whatever trees are planted are single sexed ( typically male ) otherwise you will deal with fruit / seeds everywhere ( and some seedlings popping up ) The negative side of those trees ( besides the seeds on female trees ) is stressed trees can suffer pretty serious storm damage. Have seen a few where the tops of some bigger trees had been completely shredded is a good wind storm.

Agree, what you're seeing w/ things like Big Leaf / Vine Maple is exactly what you'd see this time of year in places like the Santa Cruz Mountains / Foothills of the Sierras / Big Sur.. Same w/ native Sycamore / Buckeye there ( which i'd bet would do well up there, if it isn't already used ) Seeds are quite toxic though.

While a ways out, and subject to change, you guys may see a decent shot at some rainfall ..sometime between the 16th-23rd.. Same 12z GFS run also has a pretty good cool down on the map around the 24th ( widespread lower 40's / 30s across Oregon / Wash. ) Same passing trough might have enough kick to bring the first stretch of fall-like 90s / 60s here.

[Chester B]

Yes it looks like today will be our last 80+F day of the year sadly.  Local weather people are predicting 2nd half of Sept cool and wetter than normal.  I'll be glad to get some rain, but not looking forward to the temperature shift.  I need to move a lot further south.

[Hutch]

I agree....looks like summer is closing up shop in the next week or 2.....sheeez....as much as I love rain...the warm hot weather is just soo nice...besides the smoke...heres some photos of 83 right now..in the yard soo long summer .

[Hutch]

On fire...

[Chester B]

Looks great @Hutch I'm still blown away you have that CIDP.  When I compare my average weather to yours I actually get less rainfall, snow and are slightly warmer in the winter.  You on the other hand get 11 extra days of sun per year.   According to the maps you're zone 8B same as me whereas nearby Eugene is only 8A.   What size was the CIDP when it went in?  I'm assuming you can't protect it now, and did you ever?

I saw rain this morning over much of the state, did you pick up any?  We're still a week away from our first chance of rain.

[Hutch]

Yes, I protected it when it was young, can't anymore it's been on its own the last 2 winters  ...i bought it from a nursery in Florence...it was in ....I think a 10 or 15 gallon..was really nice looking.... I was there with my wife were suppose to get Rhododendrons or something came home with the CIDP...that was 8 years ago!

[Hutch]

It's really weird weather up my way ......in the morning we always have a weak east wind...that switches to the west around 11 or 12...and that slow east wind drains the cold air down to the surrounding lowland aka Willamette Valley ...the Eugene Airport I believe is like 370 ft it's a hole that collects cold air....areas to the south Hills of eugene are 8b some 9a areas Lowell Oregon were my son goes to school is even stranger on micro climate!

[Paradise Found]

It's been over 90 days since I have had any rain.  Now on Friday that will end, with 1.65" of rain, garden really needs it badly and will have a few shrubs that might not make it. Palms & exotic plants are all ok. 

[Chester B]

Last I heard a maybe an inch here over 4 days. I planted some palms down by what used to be a pretty wet spot as in it was a pond and the dirt was like cement. I am very interested to see how all the plants respond. 

[Chester B]

I spoke too soon this morning things have changed again - big surprise!  Now it looks like rain on Saturday and Sunday we may get the odd shower, overall predicted temps are now going into the mid to upper 70s.  I sure hope we don't miss out on this chance.  Last day of measurable rain was June 13.

[Hutch]

73 right now....got nearly 3 inches of rain over the weekend...looks like we're in store for a couple more 80+ degree days this week into next weekend ..awesome !

[Chester B]

2 hours ago, Hutch said:

73 right now....got nearly 3 inches of rain over the weekend...looks like we're in store for a couple more 80+ degree days this week into next weekend ..awesome !

Same here except for the rain. Portland airport got a lot more rain than me I know they were almost 2.5” On Saturday plus whatever they picked up on Sunday. At my house I got about 1.5” but it was greatly appreciated I noticed the plants in the neighborhood look much better. Still didn’t do much to help my grass though. 
 

I know I’m looking forward to some more 80s, I thought for sure they were over for the year. 

[Paradise Found]

On 9/20/2021 at 5:32 PM, Chester B said:

I know I’m looking forward to some more 80s, I thought for sure they were over for the year. 

About 15 years ago we had 90F on September 30th, a new record for that day.  So we can get some heat in late Sept.  Just not every year. And, as you know every year seems to be different how long the heat last. 

Oregon's spring come two weeks earlier than mine and summer is two weeks longer. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Paradise Found

[Chester B]

We’re definitely getting close to the end, sometime in the latter half of October it will start to go downhill.  November is usually the first real wintry month with cool weather and frequent precipitation. 
 

An extra month of summer makes a big difference. Wish we had another month on top of that.  Didn’t realize we were that far off rom you guys  

We had an some light showers for about 30 minutes this morning. Pleasant surprise - the ground keeps soaking up any rain we get. Once the sun comes out you’d never know it rained. We have a pretty big deficit to make up. 
 

I’m going to start the rework on my front yard next week. All the grass will be gone by next spring. I have a lot of plants that I already have that I will be moving as things are getting crowded. I read now is a good time to move Rosemaries I have two big ones I want to save.  

[nick206]

What do you guys think of the upcoming la Nina winter? Feels like it has been forever since we had a moderate or strong El Nino.

[Silas_Sancona]

9 minutes ago, nick206 said:

What do you guys think of the upcoming la Nina winter? Feels like it has been forever since we had a moderate or strong El Nino.

This is the CPC's " thoughts " regarding the winter forecasts, via the September update to the NMME model spread:  Next months update will be out in a couple weeks..  No doubt what you see now will likely change a bit at each update.

Precip: ( Nov. - Feb. )
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead2.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead3.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead4.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead5.html


Suggested Temps: ( same time period )
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead2.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead3.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead4.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead5.html

As for another El Nino ENSO cycle?.. Maybe next winter?  Major or weakling? ..Have to see what happens w/ SST's after March. 

Keep an eye on this plot as winter ends next year.. 
Waiting to see where Will be interesting to see where it is at as we go into next month.. Could remain in the -0.00 to 0.05C range vs. diving lower as suggested on the plot. If it does stay higher than suggested,  La Nina could be weak this winter ( compared to last year ) / transition toward positive neutral sooner next year.  Agree, been a lonnggg time since a big, classic, ( and ultra wet ) El Nino has occurred ( 1982-83 / '97-98 )   Considering the drought, other current factors, will be interesting to see what the next monster Nino brings.
 

[Chester B]

Last winter was quite mild here.  We had the one three day stretch of cold weather with the ice storm that one night that hit us right before it hit Texas.  One day below freezing was the only real blip we've had in 5 years.  I'd take another one like that minus the ice.  Just a couple miles north of me in Portland proper they were that much colder so only got snow.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Chester B

[Paradise Found]

Last winter was mild but that three day snow event with heavy snow/24hrs was awful, 14" at my place.  The three days it snow the temps were mild, 31/30. Ice storms are very rare here.  

I was out of town and couldn't get back, so I miss the big snow event. Would have made some great pictures. 

It's getting cooler here than you, for example, Friday.  Portland 87F, Here only 78F. Saturday will be nice too, maybe warmer.  

[Paradise Found]

What a difference a day makes.  Saturday high 78F clear / Sunday high 60F rain.

[Chester B]

Not here, 70s and sunny, another really nice day. Supposedly rain starting tonight but they keep backing off on how much and how long. Back to 80s by the end of the week and sunshine. Hopefully these next 2 days we get some decent rain. I backed off on manual watering and am starting to see drought damage showing up again. 

[Paradise Found]

I've got damage on some BLE trees...One rare tree is growing back already. 

Edited September 27, 2021 by Paradise Found

[Chester B]

13 hours ago, Paradise Found said:

I've got damage on some BLE trees...One rare tree is growing back already. 

How's the wheel tree doing?

Most of my damage is plants on the west side of my property.  I had big trees that used to provide shade but last winter's ice storm destroyed them.  So I had plants that were used to part shade that went to full blazing afternoon sun.  I have replacement trees growing and they are growing mega fast but it will still take 5 years to get that level of shade back.  Pseudopanax laetus and Metapanax delavayi have quite a bit of scorch on them as well as a Magnolia macrophylla subs Ashei. and some Paw Paws.

I had 7 mature trees when I bought the place most 25'+ but all I have left these days is a single Mimosa tree which provides almost no shade for my yard.  Two red maples, a norway maple, two bradford pears and an alder tree have all been removed.  The maples were destroying my sidewalks and driveway, as well as growing into the house and foundations and my water line, the alder was diseased and the pears were smashed into pieces by the ice.  Most of the mature trees in my neighborhood have gone the way of the Dodo in the last 3 years so it's pretty sad looking these days.  And no one seems to be replanting, so it is definitely feeling a lot hotter around here when I walk my dogs. 

We finally had some more rain move in late last night, I've gotten 0.43" so far.  This should help a great deal.

[Paradise Found]

Pseudopanax laetus is the one that got burn really bad since I didn't water them. They both moved in the spring, I have two one is 12' tall and 10' one is full shade other in half a day of shade, both are growing back nicely. In NZ they are a understory tree And are becoming more rare.  My only Magnolia tree has about 15% damage to leaves but still looks ok. 

 

[Chester B]

Please post a photo of your big one, I was under the impression when I bought them they weren't a large plant.  Mines about 7' tall and pretty big around.

[Paradise Found]

3 hours ago, Chester B said:

Please post a photo of your big one, I was under the impression when I bought them they weren't a large plant.  Mines about 7' tall and pretty big around.

Well it looks like there not that tall after all. The first one will grow back its about 8'tall.  It will recover for sure. 

Second one is 9' tall and may not make it.  The heat really beat them up, the second one was transplanted a few week before the big heat way.  Not counting on this one to live.  Unless it grows back from the roots.

Edited September 27, 2021 by Paradise Found

[Chester B]

Yikes. Those look pretty rough. Mines in much better condition. Yesterday one side became limp for some reason. I hope the rain we had perks it back up. 

[Paradise Found]

18 hours ago, Chester B said:

Yikes. Those look pretty rough. Mines in much better condition. Yesterday one side became limp for some reason. I hope the rain we had perks it back up. 

Yeah, I think the one in the cat cage is toast.  Funny thing is I got mine and I've never seem again locally. 

[Chester B]

On 9/28/2021 at 2:23 PM, Paradise Found said:

Yeah, I think the one in the cat cage is toast.  Funny thing is I got mine and I've never seem again locally. 

I saw them for the previous two years and this year they all disappeared.

Weather is taking a major downturn starting Tuesday.  Looks like we'll be below seasonal bouncing around 60F.  Lots of precip too.  Time to turn off the irrigation.

[Hutch]

Yep. ...agree..moving into winter very quickly....tonight is my official last day of summer.....it was about 72...

[Chester B]

3 hours ago, Hutch said:

Yep. ...agree..moving into winter very quickly....tonight is my official last day of summer.....it was about 72...

Sad isn’t it?

[Hutch]

Gosh Darn.....its been relentless rain here..at the moment it's 54...i hope this is not the start to some ridiculous la Nina ... hopefully is not some ... hot and rot year...!