Florida Winter 2021-2022

[RedRabbit]

30 minutes ago, ChristianStAug said:

I know the official low at Jax airport was 28F so this doesn't look like actual lows to me. 

I think it was just a snapshot from this morning and not the actual lows.

What interests me about the image is it fills in some blanks where we don’t have data from stations. When you zoom in you can identify some places that have pretty nice microclimates too. Winter Garden, for example, looks like it did well and we don’t talk much about it on here. Also, when I look at places like AMI and Captiva it looks almost like it isn’t just the maritime influence but they’re just far enough west to where they’ve got less influence from the Florida peninsula. 

Edited January 25, 2022 by RedRabbit

[Brian M]

My yard hit 31.8 last night in Jax Beach a little after midnight for about 25 minutes before jumping back above freezing. Had frost on the open area of my yard. I was able to last minute wrap a sheet around my adonidia merrellii and ptychosperma elegans but still noticed some leaf burn from where the frost was on the sheet. My foxtail doesn't seem to show any damage and it went uncovered.

If we do end up getting another cold blast this weekend I doubt I'll be able to wrap them again and just let them ride. Will probably end up replacing them with something a touch hardy this spring. 

[Estlander]

32.2F here in the FL panhandle. @JLM do you know what your last night's low was? Hope it was nowhere near the 22.6F you had the first night.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Estlander

[Walt]

5 hours ago, Aceraceae said:

What was your dew point/humidity at those temps as Archbold was claiming a saturation point above 35 F? 

Don't know what the dew point was officially, but I went outside as it was just starting to get light and I could hear dew dripping down through the trees. By then I had bottomed out at 31 degrees in the open yard, so I assume the dew point was near that temperature. In my tree canopied areas I was getting temperature readings of 33-34+ (tenths) readings.

[Walt]

1 hour ago, ChristianStAug said:

I know the official low at Jax airport was 28F so this doesn't look like actual lows to me. 

Come Sunday morning those lows are going to be much lower if one puts stock in the forecast.

[Walt]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

It's pretty incredible the difference a relatively small change in elevation can make.  This weekend looks like Saturday may not get out of the 40s during the day with a freeze at night.  I entered the zip code for the airport on Weather.com and they are calling for 29F there overnight and 30F for my own zip code.  Sunday is not supposed to be a picnic either.  If it isn't too difficult, I'd do the protection in the event everything is as bad or worse as what is being expected.  Then again, doing the protection song and dance gets old.

Nothing like a heated debate to knock the chill out of the area

Wow!  Every bit as frosty as Bartow was this morning!  That's unexpected!

I had similar experiences to both of you.  My weather station recorded an absolute minimum of 36.9F.  That's the mildest reading I've found in Lakeland by a few tenths of a degree.  That said, there were a lot of 31-33F readings as well as some 29F readings on the map this morning.  The car and rooftops had frost and so did some of the grass, but the live oaks and avocado trees made short work of the frost component of this one in places where they could provide cover.  Some of the milder areas in Lakeland were similar to Red's reading of 36.5F.  Next weekend is looking pretty bad.

Here are a few stations that were pretty close to mine as far as temperature:

South Lake Morton - KFLLAKEL130 This station is close to downtown

GLD LKLD - KFLLAKEL290 This station is on the hill coming away from Lake Hollingsworth

Sun Shower - KFLLAKEL327 This one is up in the hills, so it was surprising it wasn't quite as mild as the others

As bad as it was, it could have been a lot worse - like mid-20s worse!  Friends don't let friends live NW of Griffin/Knights Station Road :

For anyone interested, I've attached a spreadsheet of the NWS records from the airports along the I-4 Corridor.  You'll be impressed by the readings in Orlando, especially if you compare them to nearby Kissimmee.  KISM is about 10-12 miles from KMCO as the crow flies, but look at the difference in the readings!

202201240000_AirportRecords.xlsx 37.14 kB · 1 download

Elevation where I live along the Lake Wales ridge is good for a whole USDA hardiness zone. That is, up in town (less than 2 miles as the crow flies) is 90 feet higher in elevation than at my place. I've been tracking the temperatures for years now via reporting stations and by my car thermometer. Just today I had to drive up to town to my dentist's office. Even at 9:30 a.m. it was still 5 degrees warmer than at my place, and it was 10 degrees warmer at sunrise.

[Walt]

It was far warmer on North Carolina's Outer Banks this morning than at my place -- a testament to the value of water. It's no wonder the Outer Banks are rated zone 9a (last time I read something stating that).

[pj_orlando_z9b]

11 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

Belle Isle, downtown or the I Drive vicinities seem to be the prime microclimates in the Orlando area.  Coconuts should survive in this area as long as they reach a good size between freezes or near freezes.

-Michael

 

I think Winter Garden belongs in that category too. Seems Lake Apopka helps downtown quite a bit. Maybe too far NW to get the best advantage?

Edited January 25, 2022 by pj_orlando_z9b

[pj_orlando_z9b]

Model trends: Euro colder 3 runs in a row. Has Orlando at 31. GFS warmer and has Orlando 40.

GFS is not phasing the storm now. I would think a stronger storm would pull colder air further south. Next few days will be interesting. 

[JLM]

4 hours ago, Estlander said:

32.2F here in the FL panhandle. @JLM do you know what your last night's low was? Hope it was nowhere near the 22.6F you had the first night.

32F very briefly. I suspect colder, had a decent amount of frost on everything, once the sun came out it looked like snow on the rooftops from being such a thick frost.

[JLM]

Not sure what in gonna find when i unwrap the foxtail, which may be tomorrow just so it can air out before it gets wrapped back up. Hit 22.6F officially, if there was a 10F temp difference then at a minimum it experienced freezing temps and could be damaged pretty good, any higher of a temp difference then there may be no damage or low amount of damage. Hoping for the best.

[JJPalmer]

FWIW - from NWS Tampa: 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[PalmatierMeg]

Low this a.m. was 51.6F          Predicted: 42F    Not sure what happened (cloud cover?) but I'm grateful. Currently 58.8F

Sat. & Sun. coming up threaten the lowest temps here since 2015: 36F with highs of 58F & 59F, respectively. Very bad news and a reminder winter can never be counted out. Wish I had bought those mini personal space heaters last summer - none to be found anywhere now. The coconuts will be looking ratty in the spring.

[Walt]

14 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Low this a.m. was 51.6F          Predicted: 42F    Not sure what happened (cloud cover?) but I'm grateful. Currently 58.8F

Sat. & Sun. coming up threaten the lowest temps here since 2015: 36F with highs of 58F & 59F, respectively. Very bad news and a reminder winter can never be counted out. Wish I had bought those mini personal space heaters last summer - none to be found anywhere now. The coconuts will be looking ratty in the spring.

I also don't know what happened. Weird. WU was calling for a low of 44 up on the hill in town. Since my property always run much colder (if it's radiational), so I figured to be in the 30s. I wrapped a small coconut palm I planted this past summer and had an infrared heater on standby.  However, when I went to bed my thermometer read 47 degrees.  During the night I checked it several times and it read no less than 44 degrees. .When I got up around 6:30 a.m. it read 47 degrees. I went online to the WU weather site up in town and it reported 51 degrees. I'm not complaining, as I always like it when WU errs and the temperature stays higher than predicted.

While WU is predicting 32 degrees for Lake Placid Sunday morning, I just hope it's advective, as then there shouldn't be frost. For Monday WU is calling for 33 degrees, and I all but know that will be radiational cooling. And I know that if it's 33 up in town it will be well down into the 20s for me. I expect to incur freeze damage akin to both January and December of 2010. I expect to lose all my small veitchias,  Bec. fenestralis,  solitares, et al zone 10 palms.

 

[IHB1979]

Current low temperature ranges for barrier island in Brevard. Saturday daytime gusts to almost 40 mph out of the WNW. Saturday night into Sunday winds around 15 mph, gusts over 25mph. 

Saturday: 43-46F

Sunday: 35-41F

Monday: 41-46F

[JJPalmer]

Model Update:

12z EURO and GFS hot off the presses. Obviously these are deterministic and only represent one models individual solution, so as with all model runs don't take them as gospel. Both GFS and Euro seem to be cooling off, which isn't ideal.  Also included below is a link to a site I found that allows you to zoom in on a county-by-county basis. Pretty neat but less aesthetic compared to Pivotal Weather.  

Model charts for Pinellas (Temperature) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) (weather.us)

[Jimbean]

Yeah it's not looking good, but this is still away out yet so we'll know better as the week progresses. 

 

 

[pj_orlando_z9b]

Latest Euro has a high of 45 for both Orlando and Tampa Saturday.  This would have to be near record high mins.  In the 30s and low 40s most of the day??

[PalmatierMeg]

34 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

Latest Euro has a high of 45 for both Orlando and Tampa Saturday.  This would have to be near record high mins.  In the 30s and low 40s most of the day??

Ow, ow, ow! Reminds me of Jan. 2010. That Sat. started off in the 40s in the rain and dropped throughout the day to 35F. Then rain stopped, clouds cleared and the mercury plummeted to an all-time low of 28.5F the next morning. Mass horticultural slaughter: I lost 30+ species of palms and caught acute bronchitis after working in ice cold rain to save stuff. 

[Estlander]

Last winter I posted a photo of these two Bottle palms I found in Destin(FL panhandle). Here they are still and looking pretty good. 

Edited January 25, 2022 by Estlander

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

Model Update:

12z EURO and GFS hot off the presses. Obviously these are deterministic and only represent one models individual solution, so as with all model runs don't take them as gospel. Both GFS and Euro seem to be cooling off, which isn't ideal.  Also included below is a link to a site I found that allows you to zoom in on a county-by-county basis. Pretty neat but less aesthetic compared to Pivotal Weather.  

Model charts for Pinellas (Temperature) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) (weather.us)

Wow, this tool is awesome @JJPalmer. Thanks a lot for sharing!

[JJPalmer]

58 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Ow, ow, ow! Reminds me of Jan. 2010. That Sat. started off in the 40s in the rain and dropped throughout the day to 35F. Then rain stopped, clouds cleared and the mercury plummeted to an all-time low of 28.5F the next morning. Mass horticultural slaughter: I lost 30+ species of palms and caught acute bronchitis after working in ice cold rain to save stuff. 

We've seen 0.60" today and the temperature hasn't risen above 51F in St. Pete today and it feels miserable. I can't imagine 10+ degrees colder.  

[jreich85]

Where I live on the west side of the ICWW in Jacksonville we barely touched 32 the night before last but had moderate frost. I thought that was bad, but this Saturday night looks to be downright painful. We’ll have a nice high tide right at sunrise, but it doesn’t look like it will be any match for the predicted wind, which the NWS has termed “blustery”. Time to search Amazon for any good heating cables or similar, if someone has any good recommendations.

[NickJames]

34 minutes ago, jreich85 said:

Where I live on the west side of the ICWW in Jacksonville we barely touched 32 the night before last but had moderate frost. I thought that was bad, but this Saturday night looks to be downright painful. We’ll have a nice high tide right at sunrise, but it doesn’t look like it will be any match for the predicted wind, which the NWS has termed “blustery”. Time to search Amazon for any good heating cables or similar, if someone has any good recommendations.

Highly recommend a tank top propane heater. It is especially good for smaller palms. I have an adonidia that survived this weekend in Volusia County uncovered with no damage because of it.

It heats up the air enough around the palm to prevent frost from forming on it and keep the ambient temperature above freezing. 
 

Is it perfect? No. It won’t protect foliage that is too far from the heat source. 
 

Tractor Supply on St. John’s Bluff has them cheap. 
 

My childhood home is off Hodges so very familiar with that area!

[jreich85]

43 minutes ago, NickJames said:

Highly recommend a tank top propane heater. It is especially good for smaller palms. I have an adonidia that survived this weekend in Volusia County uncovered with no damage because of it.

It heats up the air enough around the palm to prevent frost from forming on it and keep the ambient temperature above freezing. 
 

Is it perfect? No. It won’t protect foliage that is too far from the heat source. 
 

Tractor Supply on St. John’s Bluff has them cheap. 
 

My childhood home is off Hodges so very familiar with that area!

Thanks for the recommendation, and now that I think about it, I remember reading about your success with it, maybe around last winter. And a perfect excuse to finally check out our new TSC!

[NickJames]

26 minutes ago, jreich85 said:

Thanks for the recommendation, and now that I think about it, I remember reading about your success with it, maybe around last winter. And a perfect excuse to finally check out our new TSC!

Yes. I kept a golden Malayan dwarf coconut alive through 28 degrees last year. 
 

and I apparently saved a green Malayan dwarf from 26 degrees on Sunday night  

[Aceraceae]

6 hours ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

Latest Euro has a high of 45 for both Orlando and Tampa Saturday.  This would have to be near record high mins.  In the 30s and low 40s most of the day??

Weather Channel shows the line from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona Beach at least making 50 on Saturday, with very low humidity and a dry wind. Miami Beach should hold on to 40 and Key West 50, and thanks to the breeze even most of central florida should avoid a hard freeze even with humidity topping out around only 70% at night when near freezing, dew point around 20.  

Right after posting the forecast dropped a little. 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Aceraceae

[pj_orlando_z9b]

48 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

Weather Channel shows the line from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona Beach at least making 50 on Saturday, with very low humidity and a dry wind. Miami Beach should hold on to 40 and Key West 50, and thanks to the breeze even most of central florida should avoid a hard freeze even with humidity topping out around only 70% at night when near freezing, dew point around 20.  

Right after posting the forecast dropped a little. 

Weather Channel now has me 50/32. I'm will likely throw burlap around the coconut trunk and run a propane heater close by. 

[chinandega81]

What i´m noticing about this cold event is that it is fairly uniform across peninsular Florida. There isn't much difference between Miami and Tampa/Orlando temps. the weather channel has Miami with highs in the 50s and lows inthe 30s 2 days in a row....and the thrid day 60s and 40s. To have 2 days a row in the 50s is pretty undeard of. And 2 with 30s for lows is bad. A lot of the ultra tropical stuff will be damaged and even hardy tropicals are going to look awful after 3 very cold days here. Ironically, it won't be much worse in Central FL from what I am seeing. I suppose that is the saving grace for zone pushers farthur north in the state.

[Alan_Tampa]

february 1996 i thnk the 9th. colder in homestead than in  tampa

 

since y'all already set the jinx, this is still a forecast, and the gfs and ecm do not agree.  

euro

 

GFS

 

 

[JJPalmer]

It appears as the NWS is favoring the ECMWF over the GFS which is definitely not ideal. 

[pj_orlando_z9b]

24 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

It appears as the NWS is favoring the ECMWF over the GFS which is definitely not ideal. 

Looks like a blend. ECMWF is actually trending colder. Orlando at 28F and TPA at 30F. Both with high temps now at 44.  GFS ticked higher at bit with both locations 35F or higher. 

[Jimbean]

Well at least we get to see what happens. 

[Aceraceae]

3 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

What i´m noticing about this cold event is that it is fairly uniform across peninsular Florida. There isn't much difference between Miami and Tampa/Orlando temps. the weather channel has Miami with highs in the 50s and lows inthe 30s 2 days in a row....and the thrid day 60s and 40s. To have 2 days a row in the 50s is pretty undeard of. And 2 with 30s for lows is bad. A lot of the ultra tropical stuff will be damaged and even hardy tropicals are going to look awful after 3 very cold days here. Ironically, it won't be much worse in Central FL from what I am seeing. I suppose that is the saving grace for zone pushers farthur north in the state.

 

3 hours ago, Alan_Tampa said:

february 1996 i thnk the 9th. colder in homestead than in  tampa

Homestead and Orlando are forecast only a couple degrees apart ultimate low being low 30s and 30. But Miami/Beach and Fort Lauderdale will be at least 5 degrees warmer. Whether advective as in this case, or radiational, the urban heat island helps a lot. 

[Palmarum]

Forecasts have this Sunday in the possible upper 30ºF's for the zone 10a/b line I am sitting on... ugh. I hope the cloud cover keeps up.

I look at the temperatures possible for Ft. Lauderdale and think warm thoughts for areas to the west.

Ryan

[Estlander]

Looks like coastal areas all the way up to north Florida, are gonna do better than inland areas down to even south FL during this freeze.

According to Weather.com, the lows for FL panhandle coastal areas Fri and Sat night are between 31F-35F, while the lows for Crestview (inland panhandle) are 25F Fri and 22F Sat.

Here are lows for some of the other more southerly locations all the way down to south FL:

Jacksonville - Fri 31F, Sun 26F

Gainesville Fri-31F, Sat-23F

Ocala Fri-32F, Sat-24F

Deland - a low of 27F Sat night.

Spring Hill - a low of 28F Sat night

Lakeland -  a low of 27F Sat night

Lake Placid - a low of 29F Sat night

Lehigh Acres - a low of 30F Sat night and 31F Sun night

Okeechobee - Sat 30F, Sun 31F

Immokalee - Sat 31F, Sun 31F

 

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Estlander

[Looking Glass]

If it hits the forecasted 39 here Sat night, it will be similar to lows in 2020, 18, & 15.  I guess if your Crytostachus renda somehow made it in the ground those years it will still be OK here.  

In 2010 it hit 33….  Glad I only had palms on the condo balcony back then.   Still a pretty chilly night coming up though.   Good luck to you guys a few hours north and inland.   Who knows for sure though.  These things can change so much in just a few days.  

I honestly don’t know how people do it.  The most sensitive stuff I have Is a 3 gallon D. Nobilis and a bunch of seedlings that can go in the garage in 2 seconds, but that’s it.   Heat lamps and tarps and Christmas lights, and wheeling 200lb pots inside….   That’s true palmholic love.   

[Walt]

Well, after about 10 years I've decided to install heating cables and mover's quilts around the trunk and meristem of my green Malayan dwarf coconut palm. I'm not that concerned for Sunday morning, as WU is now predicting a low of 30 degrees (up from 29), but it will be mostly advective, thus no frost.  But Monday morning, even though WU is predicting 32 degrees, and because I'm in a low spot, and the freeze will be radiational, I believe my low might drop well into the 20s for many hours of duration. Thus, I've decided to protect my coconut palm once again. The problem is, my palm is much higher (just like my age) now, and it will be harder for me.  Tomorrow I will get my cables out and test them (with ice around the thermostat) to make sure they still work.  I know in years past (over 10) I've protected because the forecast called for sub 30 degree low, only to be wrong, where no protection would have been needed.  I hope that's the case this Sunday and Monday morning. Below is my 2010 protection (I've posted this before).

 

[Matthew92]

It had been looking like the pattern was going to flip pretty quickly after this cold wave this weekend, and the East/Southeast was going to have above average temperatures, but the trends lately have been otherwise. Not necessarily saying we will have more freeze impacts in FL but might not be out of the threat just yet.

 

 

[ChristianStAug]

7 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

It had been looking like the pattern was going to flip pretty quickly after this cold wave this weekend, and the East/Southeast was going to have above average temperatures, but the trends lately have been otherwise. Not necessarily saying we will have more freeze impacts in FL but might not be out of the threat just yet.

 

 

I had been looking forward to a warm Feb for weeks now! Not fun to see this sticking around. Boo!