Florida Winter 2021-2022

[TampaPalms]

I don't know if guidance is trending lower, but NWS Ruskin just issued a hard freeze warning for Hillsborough County except for coastal sections and a freeze warning for Pinellas County.

Edit: they just lowered my temperature to 29°. I guess I will wrap my foxtail.

Edited January 29, 2022 by TampaPalms

[JLM]

Hit somewhere near 30F lastnight, which is much better than the predicted 27F! Tonight is expected to be about the same, but minus the wind. Now im not expecting 20's this time around and this is why: winds are expected to shift to a southerly wind overnight tonight, which will help keep temperatures from falling off a cliff. Tomorrow is expected to warm into the low 60's, with low 70's for highs mid week. Its good to have a break from highs in the 50's everyday here and there. 

[Aceraceae]

The dew point in Central Florida has already fallen below 20 in the dry NW wind (48 with 28% humidity in Orlando), lower than forecast. The wind is more westerly than previously predicted so of course eastern peninsula locations will fare relatively worse than the gulf coast. The wind is forecast to nearly die down tonight with potentially much colder radiational cooling than Sunday night; however, there might remain a slight gustyness that keeps that from happening outside of the calmest spots. 

Of course Sunday is the dead calm night, but humidity and 2m temps much lower tonight with a near-calm wind. 

[pj_orlando_z9b]

8 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

The dew point in Central Florida has already fallen below 20 in the dry NW wind (48 with 28% humidity in Orlando), lower than forecast. The wind is more westerly than previously predicted so of course eastern peninsula locations will fare relatively worse than the gulf coast. The wind is forecast to nearly die down tonight with potentially much colder radiational cooling than Sunday night; however, there might remain a slight gustyness that keeps that from happening outside of the calmest spots. 

Of course Sunday is the dead calm night, but humidity and 2m temps much lower tonight with a near-calm wind. 

I'm getting a bad vibe for Orlando. NWS has lowered from 32 2 days ago to 30 and in their writeup mentions widespread 20s now. 

[kinzyjr]

11 minutes ago, TampaPalms said:

I don't know if guidance is trending lower, but NWS Ruskin just issued a hard freeze warning for Hillsborough County except for coastal sections and a freeze warning for Pinellas County.

Edit: they just lowered my temperature to 29°. I guess I will wrap my foxtail.

Yeah, I think it is trending lower on NWS at this point.  The forecast from NWS had been a bit milder than TWC at my location up to this point.  Now they are inverted.  TWC is calling for 30F vs. NWS down to 27F for this zip code.  The freeze warning is now a hard freeze warning.  The Orlando area has a freeze warning according NWS (KORL and KMCO).  This was a big surprise after looking at 4 different temperature sensors in the shade that had 56F in my yard.  Keeping my eye on the prize (Thursday and Friday).

[Jimbean]

Our warm up is doing slightly better than expected.  Our high was supposed to be 53F, and it is that already at 1:15 PM

[IHB1979]

Pretty amazing, temps as low as 28F as far south as Jupiter for the mainland. 
 

Issued by National Weather Service
Melbourne, FL
12:32 PM EST Sat, Jan 29, 2022

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Coastal Volusia and Northern Brevard Counties inland from the Indian River.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from 1 AM to 9 AM Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, until 5 PM this afternoon

[RedRabbit]

46 minutes ago, TampaPalms said:

I don't know if guidance is trending lower, but NWS Ruskin just issued a hard freeze warning for Hillsborough County except for coastal sections and a freeze warning for Pinellas County.

What part of Hillsborough County did you say you’re in? 

[TampaPalms]

57 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

What part of Hillsborough County did you say you’re in? 

North Tampa/Carrollwood.

[pj_orlando_z9b]

Good luck everyone. Here is my setup. Got some C9s under the burlap too. Saw Euro came up a degree and has Orlando at 33 now.  We'll see. 

Edited January 29, 2022 by pj_orlando_z9b

[Alan_Tampa]

i am in citrus park/northdale.  no one in my neighborhood is doing anything for this event. 

 

i have covered a few things, but I am out of frost cloth.  And my stuff is mostly huge anyways.

 

All my stuff has seen 27, but I'd rather not have piles of dead branches to clean up.

 

The weather picker shows spot.

 

[Alan_Tampa]

I feel like the NWS is late to the party.

[Alan_Tampa]

I meant to indicate the bottom put temp/time frame

 

[JJPalmer]

Shaping up to be an interesting night, that’s for sure.  First Freeze Warning since moving here in 2019.  Wish I still had a house for my PWS.  Good luck everyone! 

[Hombre de Palmas]

14 minutes ago, Alan_Tampa said:

I feel like the NWS is late to the party.

Yeah, I just checked and the latest model runs are coalescing around the mid 30's for here,  and the WU just bumped up to 34F. That would make a big difference.

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Hombre de Palmas

[JJPalmer]

17 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

Yeah, I just checked and the latest model runs are coalescing around the mid 30's for here,  and the WU just bumped up to 34F. That would make a big difference.

 

NWS is calling for more of a radiational cooling event tonight, which tends to be a bit harder for models to pick up. From the ~2:15 pm update. 

[Hombre de Palmas]

19 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

NWS is calling for more of a radiational cooling event tonight, which tends to be a bit harder for models to pick up. From the ~2:15 pm update. 

Well, my relief was short-lived...although I'll cling to hope.

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, TampaPalms said:

North Tampa/Carrollwood.

Ah, I used to live around there. There are some pretty good coconuts growing around Dale Mabry and Linebaugh. 

1 hour ago, Alan_Tampa said:

I meant to indicate the bottom put temp/time frame

 

I think the contour lines for a lot of these models are off. They always seem to show places like TNC, Westchase, East Lake, etc as getting help from Tampa Bay or the Gulf. There’s no way that’s going to happen though when the wind is from the NE like is forecast. 

HRRR makes the most sense from what I’ve seen:

[Matthew92]

LOL

 

 

[ChristianStAug]

The NWS, with the extension of the freeze warnings and hard freeze warnings into the state really caught my attention. So far I have been monitoring the HRRR and it has performed well today down to the hour, and it has us at about 33-34. I advised my family in Sun City and Wimauma that they would need to protect their Christmas palms and Foxtails, especially smaller ones. The 2018 event really took them by surprise with them not understanding what was tender and what was not but they are getting better now. In 2018, when the foxtail was much smaller and easier to protect, it was not, and took a long time to recover in addition to some wonderful plumerias turning all to rotting mush.  I am exhausted and wind burned and hope the best for everyone.  Nobody in my neighborhood is doing anything so we will have some good microclimate data for sure.  Also our meyer lemon is full of open blossoms today, go figure  

Edited January 29, 2022 by ChristianStAug

[ChristianStAug]

34 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

LOL

 

We must follow all the same people lol.

2 hours ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

Good luck everyone. Here is my setup. Got some C9s under the burlap too. Saw Euro came up a degree and has Orlando at 33 now.  We'll see. 

Looks great! You can't say you could have done anything else. 

 

4 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Yeah, I think it is trending lower on NWS at this point.  The forecast from NWS had been a bit milder than TWC at my location up to this point.  Now they are inverted.  TWC is calling for 30F vs. NWS down to 27F for this zip code.  The freeze warning is now a hard freeze warning.  The Orlando area has a freeze warning according NWS (KORL and KMCO).  This was a big surprise after looking at 4 different temperature sensors in the shade that had 56F in my yard.  Keeping my eye on the prize (Thursday and Friday).

All the best to you!!!

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by ChristianStAug

[PalmatierMeg]

Currently 53.1F. Sun is setting. The drop-off begins. Wishing best wishes and good luck to all.

[JJPalmer]

If anyone shares their PWS data to WUnderground, I’d be interested in following your station. Drop the names if you’re willing.

[ChristianStAug]

5 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

If anyone shares their PWS data to WUnderground, I’d be interested in following your station. Drop the names if you’re willing.

KFLSTAUG852

[pj_orlando_z9b]

9 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

If anyone shares their PWS data to WUnderground, I’d be interested in following your station. Drop the names if you’re willing.

KFLORLAN691

[Silas_Sancona]

49 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

LOL

 

 

  Cheers to that!..  Couldn't say it better myself..

[Jimbean]

I'm a few blocks away from this station:

KFLMELBO95

 

[Merlyn]

It is 39-40F here in NW Orlando/Sanford already!  I just put boxes over the Elaeis whole-leaf, Corypha, variegated Mitis, and Caryota Gigas.  Wunderground and Weather Channel are still forecasting 31-33F here, if past results hold I'll be 3-5F below that.  Being just outside of the "urban heat island" is nice in the summer, spring, and fall...but not so wonderful in winter! 

[IHB1979]

I’m a block from:

KFLINDIA380

[ChristianStAug]

Here we go…..

[Brian M]

Well... palms are wrapped and now we just wait for mother nature to do her thing.

 

In the meantime...A fire and Blanton's will get me through the cold stretch just fine!

[Jimbean]

I just thought of an idea.  We can make this a game; we could start a pool where we guess the low in every city across Florida.

Here's some of my guesses:

Orlando 32

Melbourne 33

Merritt Island  34

Cocoa Beach 37

Vero Beach 33

Fort Peirce 34

Port St. Lucie 34

Stuart 35

West Palm Beach 38

Miami  41

Daytona Beach  29

 

[TampaPalms]

Now they lowered it another degree to 28°

Starting to drop fast here in the Bay Area.

[ruskinPalms]

NWS has me down to 29F and WU has me down to 32F. We will see which forecast wins. 

[pj_orlando_z9b]

Following the short range models, NAM vs HRRR. At this hour, NAM spot on at 43 for MCO (I'm currently 43.3) and HRRR predicted 41. NAM goes to 36 tonight and HRRR 31.  The temp around my trunk is 50.

[JLM]

1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

I just thought of an idea.  We can make this a game; we could start a pool where we guess the low in every city across Florida.

Here's some of my guesses:

Orlando 32

Melbourne 33

Merritt Island  34

Cocoa Beach 37

Vero Beach 33

Fort Peirce 34

Port St. Lucie 34

Stuart 35

West Palm Beach 38

Miami  41

Daytona Beach  29

 

Florida counts as central and south Florida now haha

Has anyone looked at the forecast for downtown Miami compared to Miami Beach? 41F is forecast in downtown while 39F is forecast for Miami Beach. I wonder why that is.

[Jimbean]

3 minutes ago, JLM said:

Florida counts as central and south Florida now haha
 

Santa Rosa county?  Wait... I though that was in Alabama  haha

Edited January 30, 2022 by Jimbean

[Walt]

I just planted a small Maypan coconut palm this past summer, and no way was I going to risk losing it (at worst) for just one or two nights, or at least, having lots of cosmetic damage. Further, I once a a golden dwarf variety that was badly cold damaged and it never grew normally after that, languishing for several years and then dying.

I bundled the palm, wrapped it with a sheet, then spirally wrapped over the sheet with a 40-feet heating cable (rated at 7 watts per lineal feet), then wrapped over the cables with another sheet, then wrapping some terry cloth towels for good measure. 

I plan to activate the cables once the temperature drops below 35 degrees. Right now at 8:13 p.m. it's 42 degrees.

[JLM]

3 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

Santa Rosa county?  Wait... I though that was in Alabama  haha

The Florida Panhandle, aka the forgotten part of Florida. The red highlighted county is Santa Rosa County. The little tiny one on the west side of my county is Escambia County, which holds the city of Pensacola.

[Jimbean]

3 minutes ago, JLM said:

The Florida Panhandle, aka the forgotten part of Florida. The red highlighted county is Santa Rosa County. The little tiny one on the west side of my county is Escambia County, which holds the city of Pensacola.

I was joking of course.  Central/south Floridians joke about the different parts of Florida, we call the panhandle 'Alabama' because it's far away from the stereotypical core of what is known as Florida. 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Jimbean