Texas Palmaggedon 2.0?

[Xenon]

The trend keeps going down down down 

Houston and Corpus not above 40F for DAYS ON END?

Urban Houston hasn't seen freeze this winter yet...happy anniversary?!

[Xerarch]

[joetx]

There's no way it could be down into the single digits SE of Austin while Austin is in the teens, right? 

[Matthew92]

I was seeing these trends earlier but didn't want to post and raise a too early false alarm on such a sore subject. I'm seeing more models and guidance showing it now though... 

Will be interesting to see if it gets stopped in its track from moving into FL by that magical ridge of high pressure like what happened last year...

Edited January 28, 2022 by Matthew92

[Aceraceae]

There's not many sensitive palms left to aggedon except those that withstood a worse freeze. 

[kinzyjr]

The 1980s just called... they want their winters back!

[PalmatierMeg]

Hope not. Two winters in a row are cruel and unusual. Didn't stop the winter of 2010-11 being almost as bad in FL as the previous one.

True Story: Our beloved local electric company LCEC decided to build itself a new headquarters ca. 2009. Since this is SWFL they built a state-of-the-art air conditioning system to keep its treasured employees cool during our sweltering summers. Likewise, they eschewed installing a heating system because, well, duh, this is SWFL. Comes the long record winter of 2009/10. Daytime temps didn't rise higher than the 40s/50s while nights fell to the upper-20s to 30s - for weeks. LCEC employees had to work in those temps every day. No space heaters/supplemental warmth allowed because they blew the electrical circuits. Workers had to toil in fleece, parkas, fur hats, gloves, flannel lined clothes and boots. You couldn't make this up. Only in FL

[AnTonY]

4 hours ago, Xenon said:

The trend keeps going down down down 

Houston and Corpus not above 40F for DAYS ON END?

Urban Houston hasn't seen freeze this winter yet...happy anniversary?!

Yep, saw that. Nothing near as bad on the 18z. But still not a fan of the weather pattern shaping up.

I will say it again: sluggish low pressure systems in NW Mexico are a killer.

Edited January 28, 2022 by AnTonY

[palmsOrl]

5 hours ago, Xenon said:

The trend keeps going down down down 

Houston and Corpus not above 40F for DAYS ON END?

Urban Houston hasn't seen freeze this winter yet...happy anniversary?!

That would seem to be a very unusual cold temperature distribution, but every cold outbreak is unique.  It would be unusual to have a really bad freeze in two consecutive years.

-Michael

[Meangreen94z]

Thursday night(2/3/22) is forecasted as 21°F just north of Austin where I’m at, Houston looks like just low 30’s that night. Hopefully this later prediction goes out the window.

[Collectorpalms]

GFS and Canadian been hinting at a cold blast for North and Central Texas for several runs now. Not nearly as consistent as last year was for GFS. The GFS really wants to drop temperatures for areas that end up with freezing precipitation. Can’t predict that a week in advance.

Sat/Sun/Mon/Tuesday look good for preparations. Cold front Wednesday into Thursday…. Two rounds of frozen precipitation right now. The first over north Texas possibly trailing into central Texas, and second round further south… 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Collectorpalms

[AnTonY]

4 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

GFS and Canadian been hinting at a cold blast for North and Central Texas for several runs now. Not nearly as consistent as last year was for GFS. The GFS really wants to drop temperatures for areas that end up with freezing precipitation. Can’t predict that a week in advance.

Sat/Sun/Mon/Tuesday look good for preparations. Cold front Wednesday into Thursday…. Two rounds of frozen precipitation right now. The first over north Texas possibly trailing into central Texas, and second round further south… 

Yes, also watching this one for next week Thurs and Fri. So Feb 3 and 4. 

Best case scenario is a repeat of the Jan 20-22 event.

Edited January 29, 2022 by AnTonY

[JJPalmer]

7 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

GFS and Canadian been hinting at a cold blast for North and Central Texas for several runs now. Not nearly as consistent as last year was for GFS. The GFS really wants to drop temperatures for areas that end up with freezing precipitation. Can’t predict that a week in advance.

Sat/Sun/Mon/Tuesday look good for preparations. Cold front Wednesday into Thursday…. Two rounds of frozen precipitation right now. The first over north Texas possibly trailing into central Texas, and second round further south… 

Careful extrapolating precip from models so far out when it comes to Arctic fronts moving through. From NWS Fort Worth.

[Collectorpalms]

54 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

Careful extrapolating precip from models so far out when it comes to Arctic fronts moving through. From NWS Fort Worth.

Oh yes, Totally take any frozen precipitation forecast with a grain of salt…. But One should keep in mind that a lot of our marginal palms haven’t recovered from last year. What would normally slightly fry them may just kill them. 

A lot of new planting as well that aren’t hardy. 

[SailorBold]

Yikey... here I was hoping for an 8b winter.. looks like our first snowfall will be with this storm.

Smh..  hopefully it won't be too bad..gonna bronze my filifera a bit..

 

[Tyrone]

8 hours ago, SailorBold said:

Yikey... here I was hoping for an 8b winter.. looks like our first snowfall will be with this storm.

Smh..  hopefully it won't be too bad..gonna bronze my filifera a bit..

 

Was just looking at this and thought that it looked like a summer forecast in Perth Western Australia, except you are talking Fahrenheit, not Celsius. 

I hope your plants pull through ok. 

[JLM]

On 1/28/2022 at 3:00 PM, joetx said:

There's no way it could be down into the single digits SE of Austin while Austin is in the teens, right? 

It would be if there was frozen precip on the ground under clear skies and no wind. That would be one hell of a radiational cooling event.

[joetx]

 3 week old plantings in Round Rock. Odds these survive the storm?

[Collectorpalms]

@joetx In College Station, there were some Medjool dates that were just planted the month before the freeze and low of 5F. They browned and did survive, I just saw them recently.

Meanwhile established ones in the area died. I saw one come back only to die mid summer.

They may have been drought stressed from cut roots, and that may have helped their survival. 

[joetx]

21 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

@joetx In College Station, there were some Medjool dates that were just planted the month before the freeze and low of 5F. They browned and did survive, I just saw them recently.

Meanwhile established ones in the area died. I saw one come back only to die mid summer.

They may have been drought stressed from cut roots, and that may have helped their survival. 

Here's hoping! Not supposed to get down to kill temp, but with the ice, they might not make it.

[kinzyjr]

Doesn't look like this go-round is going to be as bad as the last one, but it isn't the above normal winter we had all hoped for after that event.

[Xenon]

NWS has really moderated the forecast for the Houston Area in the past few days with most of the frozen precipitation staying to the far NW corners of the metro and beyond. If this holds, will still be a near-average winter for most of the area. 

[JohnAndSancho]

Dirty Sanchez (the washy) got wrapped up in a flannel sheet while Sancho supervised. Everything else is inside. We're supposed to get rain and maybe freezing rain with a low of 23. 

[Meangreen94z]

Dallas is getting hit two years in a row 

[Xerarch]

That 9 degree temp is a bit out of place for Dallas, but it is a zone 8a on average, we just all hoped for a mild winter this year. 

[Teegurr]

1 hour ago, Xerarch said:

That 9 degree temp is a bit out of place for Dallas, but it is a zone 8a on average, we just all hoped for a mild winter this year. 

Dallas is 8b on average 1992-2021.

[Xenon]

Temp is already 48F down nearly 20 degrees in the past two hours 

I covered the most valuable stuff but this will be a good test for the king palm and some other stuff 

[DreaminAboutPalms]

I’m hoping this is the last for awhile. 2010,2011,2014,2017,2018,2021,2022 have all been very cold in different parts of Texas and that’s exactly how the 80’s were. Then had 20 years of mild winters. I want to start guerrilla planting robusta hybrids everywhere and try to repalmify the city

[amh]

Current weather is reminiscent of January 2007, but not as severe. My biggest worry is Friday night when the winds have quit and the clouds have dissipated.

[chinandega81]

4 hours ago, DreaminAboutPalms said:

I’m hoping this is the last for awhile. 2010,2011,2014,2017,2018,2021,2022 have all been very cold in different parts of Texas and that’s exactly how the 80’s were. Then had 20 years of mild winters. I want to start guerrilla planting robusta hybrids everywhere and try to repalmify the city

I think with the warming arctic the polar jet stream isn't as tight and that lends the arctic air to go way south and be displaced by warm air that otherwise wouldn't be near the north pole in winter. This seems to be an effect of climate change. It isn't just warming across the board, seasons still exisist but weather patterns are more extreme.  I hope you are right though and that this is just a temporary cold cycle.

[Meangreen94z]

9 hours ago, DreaminAboutPalms said:

I’m hoping this is the last for awhile. 2010,2011,2014,2017,2018,2021,2022 have all been very cold in different parts of Texas and that’s exactly how the 80’s were. Then had 20 years of mild winters. I want to start guerrilla planting robusta hybrids everywhere and try to repalmify the city

Maybe mix in other palms that survived at a high rate and are different. Brahea Armata, Sabal Uresana, Phoenix CIDP, etc.

[oasis371]

"I think with the warming arctic the polar jet stream isn't as tight and that lends the arctic air to go way south and be displaced by warm air that otherwise wouldn't be near the north pole in winter. This seems to be an effect of climate change. It isn't just warming across the board, seasons still exist but weather patterns are more extreme. "

 

January here (NJ),  was uniformly cold without any January thaw, after an unusually warm December. Now in February, temps are all over the place and change dramatically in the course of a day, even the forecasts seem to change more suddenly.  It was in the mid 60's at night a few days ago, then a squall line came in with torrential rains and heavy winds. Today, there is a chance of snow squalls and then back into the 50's in a couple of days. (It's like Spring in Denver!) Another arctic air mass is beginning to descend to the south into the middle of the country, without much of an easterly component, and  to the right of the arctic air mass, there will be sudden warming along the East Coast.  Meantime, Dallas will be going from temps around 80 F to HIGHS only in the 30's on Wednesday. That't crazy! Still does not look as bad as last year's Texas nightmare. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/extreme-weather-whiplash-50-degree-temperature-swings/1144878

[JohnAndSancho]

I didn't research, not gonna lie. But someone mentioned in a thread (maybe even this one) to assume temps would be 10 degrees colder than forecast. 

 

WELP here I am lugging all of Patio Squad back inside again. I left a C. Cataractarum and the Washie outside. Had initially left the Queen and BxLyto outside but they got rained on and I don't wanna take chances with frost and freeze burns on either of them.  My favorite weather app (WeatherDoge) says it's 34 at 6:30pm. It's windy. It's wet. We were supposed to have a low of like 40 last time I looked. 

[amh]

40 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

I didn't research, not gonna lie. But someone mentioned in a thread (maybe even this one) to assume temps would be 10 degrees colder than forecast. 

 

WELP here I am lugging all of Patio Squad back inside again. I left a C. Cataractarum and the Washie outside. Had initially left the Queen and BxLyto outside but they got rained on and I don't wanna take chances with frost and freeze burns on either of them.  My favorite weather app (WeatherDoge) says it's 34 at 6:30pm. It's windy. It's wet. We were supposed to have a low of like 40 last time I looked. 

It was probably me. I'm in a dry, low area, so when the winds quit, it gets really cold. When there is wind or clouds, the temperatures will be within an acceptable margin.

Thankfully I brought my patio squad inside last night because my area was below freezing before I woke up this morning.

[AnTonY]

On 2/3/2022 at 4:05 PM, chinandega81 said:

I think with the warming arctic the polar jet stream isn't as tight and that lends the arctic air to go way south and be displaced by warm air that otherwise wouldn't be near the north pole in winter. This seems to be an effect of climate change. It isn't just warming across the board, seasons still exisist but weather patterns are more extreme.  I hope you are right though and that this is just a temporary cold cycle.

 

On 2/19/2022 at 9:38 AM, oasis371 said:

"I think with the warming arctic the polar jet stream isn't as tight and that lends the arctic air to go way south and be displaced by warm air that otherwise wouldn't be near the north pole in winter. This seems to be an effect of climate change. It isn't just warming across the board, seasons still exist but weather patterns are more extreme. "

 

January here (NJ),  was uniformly cold without any January thaw, after an unusually warm December. Now in February, temps are all over the place and change dramatically in the course of a day, even the forecasts seem to change more suddenly.  It was in the mid 60's at night a few days ago, then a squall line came in with torrential rains and heavy winds. Today, there is a chance of snow squalls and then back into the 50's in a couple of days. (It's like Spring in Denver!) Another arctic air mass is beginning to descend to the south into the middle of the country, without much of an easterly component, and  to the right of the arctic air mass, there will be sudden warming along the East Coast.  Meantime, Dallas will be going from temps around 80 F to HIGHS only in the 30's on Wednesday. That't crazy! Still does not look as bad as last year's Texas nightmare. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/extreme-weather-whiplash-50-degree-temperature-swings/1144878

 

23 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

I didn't research, not gonna lie. But someone mentioned in a thread (maybe even this one) to assume temps would be 10 degrees colder than forecast. 

 

WELP here I am lugging all of Patio Squad back inside again. I left a C. Cataractarum and the Washie outside. Had initially left the Queen and BxLyto outside but they got rained on and I don't wanna take chances with frost and freeze burns on either of them.  My favorite weather app (WeatherDoge) says it's 34 at 6:30pm. It's windy. It's wet. We were supposed to have a low of like 40 last time I looked. 

 

22 hours ago, amh said:

It was probably me. I'm in a dry, low area, so when the winds quit, it gets really cold. When there is wind or clouds, the temperatures will be within an acceptable margin.

Thankfully I brought my patio squad inside last night because my area was below freezing before I woke up this morning.

I think the problem in Texas also is persistent "troughing" patterns extending "positive tilt" into Southwestern area (i.e. Desert Southwest, Intermountains, Northern Mexico, etc). Often, the troughs don't actually dive super deep directly into Texas from the polar zone during the cold periods, from what I see looking at weather maps — instead, it's either (1) smaller shortwaves that round the larger Southwest trough moving east, or (2) the entire northerly component of the trough detaching and moving east away from the equatorward component left in the Southwest. Regardless, of the scenario, the northerly systems end up dragging down "shallow" cold air into the state — "shallow" since the upper level flow is unchanged, so you still have warmer, moister air overhead, creating "overrunning" conditions ranging from gloomy overcast, colder rain days ... to wintry precip, depending on how cold the airmass in question is. 

It all clears out once the longwave trough in the SW/Intermountains finally moves out/breaks down. The "positive tilt" refers to SW to NE orientation of the troughs/weather systems, and those are the patterns that create the sharp gradient of Texas cold versus warmer conditions in areas like Florida.