2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[JLM]

I didnt quite realize how popular these threads were until this year, so here we are! "Happy" Hurricane Season. We will start off with the forecast for the season, and what we currently have going on out there right now.

The forecast from just about every agency or group that puts out a seasonal forecast is calling for an ABOVE AVERAGE season this year. Colorado State University put out their forecast calling for 19 named storms, 9 of those being hurricanes, and 4 being major hurricanes.

NOAA has also put out their forecast, and they are calling for 14-21 named storms, 6-10 of those being hurricanes, and 3-6 of those hurricanes being major hurricanes.

The average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The above numbers are quite concerning, especially given the fact that there are signs that the Western Caribbean Sea could harbor quite a bit of development this season.

Sea Surface Temperatures are above average across most of the basin right now, as shown below. Also note the La Nina in the Eastern Pacific, which is aiding the Atlantic in terms of hurricane development this season.


Now for the current disturbances in the Atlantic right now. We have two areas to watch, the most important right now being Invest 91L which has a 70% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression over the next 2 days. Looking at satellite right now, it appears that a mid-level low is trying to work its way down to the surface in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, and if it can do this and persist with convection (storms) overnight, we may wake up to a Tropical Depression as early as tomorrow morning. You can see the spin on the satellite loop at the bottom of the post.

The main concern with this disturbance right now is heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Right now the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 5-10 inches of rainfall across South Florida over the next 7 days, which will cause issues. Some spots may get more than 10 inches of rain with this system if the forecasts play out. Rainfall forecast show below.


There is another disturbance out there right now off the Southeast US coast with a 10% chance of development through the next 2 and 5 days. This one poses no threat to land and will likely not develop anyway.

[kinzyjr]

@JLM They finally twisted your arm hard enough...

[JLM]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

@JLM They finally twisted your arm hard enough...

Appears so! 

I dont mind doing these posts, in fact, i love doing them. I am hopefully getting my first job soon, so i may not be able to post as frequently as id like to, but at least information will be posted here.

[JLM]

Update: The invest area i updated on the other day is now Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone means that this is not actually a tropical cyclone, but that it has the potential to impact land areas with tropical storm conditions within the next 36-48 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of western Cuba, central/south Florida, and northern Bahamas tonight. This is no longer expected to be given the name Alex before it reaches Florida today, but it is expected to gain tropical storm status after exiting Florida. Here is the latest track forecast and rainfall forecast through the next 3 days:

[Looking Glass]

Man, we are off to a wet start to the wet season….  It rained about every day this week, with 2 days with very heavy rain.  Then yesterday it rained hard, nonstop all day and today it will be heavy tropical rain again.   That should get things growing fast.   The streets are parking lots are flooded decently, but it should drain out fast later tomorrow.  

[D. Morrowii]

4 hours ago, Looking Glass said:

Man, we are off to a wet start to the wet season….  It rained about every day this week, with 2 days with very heavy rain.  Then yesterday it rained hard, nonstop all day and today it will be heavy tropical rain again.   That should get things growing fast.   The streets are parking lots are flooded decently, but it should drain out fast later tomorrow.  

I wish I could say the same for us up here. We’ve been dry for a couple of months now. There have been plenty of storms around the last couple of weeks but they’ve avoided my neck of the woods almost completely. So far out of PTC1 we’ve received a whopping .19 inches of rain. Still hoping for a quick soaker to out of this before it scoots out of here.

[kinzyjr]

Just now, D. Morrowii said:

4 hours ago, Looking Glass said:

Man, we are off to a wet start to the wet season….  It rained about every day this week, with 2 days with very heavy rain.  Then yesterday it rained hard, nonstop all day and today it will be heavy tropical rain again.   That should get things growing fast.   The streets are parking lots are flooded decently, but it should drain out fast later tomorrow.  

I wish I could say the same for us up here. We’ve been dry for a couple of months now. There have been plenty of storms around the last couple of weeks but they’ve avoided my neck of the woods almost completely. So far out of PTC1 we’ve received a whopping .19 inches of rain. Still hoping for a quick soaker to out of this before it scoots out of here.

It's been hit and miss here.  For a while, my neck of the woods was getting rain while other places were dry.  Now, everyone else is getting a lot more.  From this particular storm, only about a quarter inch of rain.  Only about an inch in the last week.  It seems to be enough to spur growth, but I'd like to see the same ad D. Morrowii - a good soaker that will last us a week in case it gets dry for a bit.

[aabell]

Page Field, Ft Myers data:

01/01 - 04/27:  3.46"

04/28 - 06/05: 18.04" 

Illustrates the all-or-nothing nature of Florida's wet/dry seasons. The 3.46" came primarily from a few big storms in Jan/Feb. After that, Mid-Feb through late April had virtually no rain and was about as dry as it gets for FL. On April 28th we had a 4.23" soaker followed by a week straight of strong summer-like storms and a fairly wet May overall. Now another 5" from this storm yesterday.

Hoping you guys get some in the rest of the state soon. Nothing worse than watching your plants suffer from the heat when it hasn't rained in weeks. I'm on city water, it would cost a fortune to irrigate everything properly and the treated water only keeps things alive, doesn't make them grow the way rain water does. 

 

[Looking Glass]

I think we got about 7.5” of rain the past day and a half, after a very wet week overall.  Better than last year, where things were bone dry for the first part of the wet season.  I’ll take it.  Definitely 8 foot spear-popping weather….  I hope its a wet summer-fall.  

 

[JLM]

Update: PTC 1 crossed over the Florida peninsula on Saturday, dumping several inches of rain and bringing some gusty winds to the coastal areas. The system has since moved out into the Atlantic and has wrapped up into a tropical storm, which means we can finally call this thing Alex. Due to Alex's complicated interactions with other features in our wonderfal atmosphere, Alex has strengthened and now has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. You might be thinking that this could become a hurricane, however it is in the beginning stages of making its extratropical transition, and the features that helped Alex intensify are moving away. Alex has also crossed into colder waters near Bermuda. For this reason, the NHC forecasts Alex to weaken as it passes north of Bermuda, and becoming extratropical after passing Bermuda. Bermuda is under a Tropical Storm Warning, and tropical storm conditions should begin there tonight.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, everything is quite and will likely stay that way for the next week or so. Ensembles are sniffing in the Caribbean and Gulf around the 10 day mark, but it is nothing of concern and is just something that we need to watch the trends for. 

[JLM]

Here we are, it is June 12th, and we have a new area of interest (AOI) in the Western Caribbean. It has a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days. As of right now it looks like this will stay around Central America and could move into the Bay of Campeche (Southern Gulf). Once again, this looks like it will remain around Central America no matter how much it develops. A strong ridge will be in place over the southeast US that will keep it down there, and it will keep the heat on in the SE. Heat indicies as high as 110F could be expected across the SE thru next week.

[JLM]

Development chances have gone up to 10% in 2 days and 40% in 5 days. Otherwise, no other changes have occured, still expecting this to stay south of the US. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding/mudslides will be a big threat across portions of Central America regardless of whether this develops or not.

[JLM]

Invest 93L has a 10% chance of development over the next 2-5 days. Development appears pretty unlikely. Development is much more likely on the Pacific side of Central America where Invest 93E is located. Regardless of whether or not 93L develops, heavy rainfall will be likely across portions of Central America.

[JLM]

No tropical cyclones are expected to develop within the next 5 days. Watching the 10 day time period for a weak MDR disturbance, but otherwise nothing else of note. We remain quite for at least the next 10 days.

[JLM]

If you are on any social media platform, you have seen the model runs and all that stuff. Yes, we have a new invest area, it is Invest 94L. I am probably not going to show you anything that you havent already seen if you are on social media, but here we go. 

First off we will start with what the NHC is saying about it. Right now they are giving this a 20% chance to develop in 2 days and 40% chance to develop in 5 days. Its not necessarily the development chances that is getting people stirred up, but its the location of this disturbance. Its a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago. This invest is in the eastern Main Development Region. It is very unusual to see something this far south and east in late June. If you did not know what todays date was and you saw the map below, you would probably think we are in late July or early August. Nope, we are definitely still in June.



So basically there are a number of factors that are allowing for this to even occur in the first place. The first one is that water temperatures are above average across just about the entire tropical Atlantic at this time. Not only that, but the trades are relaxed right now, so its also moving a little slower than what is typical for June. Usually the Saharan Air Layer, or SAL, is strongest at this time of year and it usually keeps everything quite. The dry air associated with the SAL has been pushed out ahead of the invest area by another tropical wave that is out ahead of 94L. This is keeping our invest in a moisture bubble. There are currently no indications that this moisture bubble will erode or go away over the next 5 days either, so dry air will likely not be an issue for this disturbance over the 5 day period. Wind shear will also not really be an issue. Usually there is quite a bit of shear ongoing around the basin during this time of year, but there are factors at play that are keeping shear values low to none across this area of the MDR. There is also an MJO moving across, which is providing a rather favorable background state on top of the factors listed. Unless this wave just does not wrap up, i dont really see any reason why this wouldnt become a tropical depression before reaching the Antilles around the 5 day mark.

Now for some model data. Yes i know, you have probably already seen it, but why not see it again? I will be showing ensemble data out to the 7 day mark, because theres absolutely no skill especially beyond 7 days. First we will start with the Euro ensemble, or the EPS. 



Notice that there is quite a west to east spread. The members that are further west are not only faster, but overall weaker. The members further east are slower and stronger. It should also be noted that some members show strong tropical storm intensity after entering the Caribbean Sea. This is an unusual signal for this area of the Atlantic in June. In most cases, storms that enter the eastern Caribbean in June die almost immediately. This one will be different regardless of whether it actually becomes a named storm. Wind shear will be anomalously low across the Caribbean due to the fact that the TUTT is out of place. The TUTT is part of why storms get shredded by shear and die during this time of year, but this feature shouldnt have much influence on this disturbance once in the Caribbean. Most members are showing westward movement beyond the 7 day mark into Central America, but some do curve further north towards Cuba. Some are even as far north and east as the Bahama, so there is quite the spread in possibilities. Right now based off the 7 day plot above, it is more likely for this to move west to west northwest in the Caribbean. To compare ensemble groups, because its very important to do that, i will also show the GFS ensemble, or the GEFS.



Where do i even begin. For one, the signal seems less robust than the EPS. Also, there is generally less of a spread in the members. It should be noted that a couple members here are showing minimal hurricane intensity in the eastern Caribbean, and ill just say this, its not impossible. If you remember Hurricane Elsa 2021, you remember that it became a hurricane over Barbados. I do not think that a hurricane is likely, because its not, but its not impossible either. An intensity similar to Elsa is possible, but this currently looks like the upper end of possibilities. This is all just something to watch, and nothing to worry about. This should definitely serve as a warning to get ready for the rest of the season, because this could be something like a warning shot. And here is yet another image, it shows the origin points of tropical cyclones for this time of year. Only one exists on this map for the MDR, and that was the Trinidad Hurricane of 1933.



Below is a satellite loop of Invest 94L, it doesnt look too bad considering the time of year.

[JLM]

The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L at 5 pm EDT so countries in the Windward Islands can issue Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings.

[bubba]

This blow has that “ headed to Nicaragua” look that seems to take place at this time of year. Always something goin on out there!

[JLM]

Here is the forecast track for PTC 2. It is forecast to become a low end hurricane before making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Grenada and its associated islands. PTC 2 is expected to become Tropical Storm Bonnie before reaching the islands.

[JLM]

Remember when i said that this disturbance was expected to become Bonnie before reaching the islands? Well...it didnt. In fact, it still hasnt. It is expected to become Bonnie before reaching Nicaragua, where Hurricane Watches are in effect as well as Tropical Storm Watches extending down into Costa Rica. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for northern Colombia and Venezuela. After the system makes landfall in Nicaragua, providing it does end up taking the name Bonnie, the NHC is forecasting this to not lost tropical storm status. This would mean that even after entering the Pacific, it would still be named Bonnie. NHC is forecasting that this becomes a low end hurricane in the Pacific off the coast of Mexico.

[JLM]

The PTC has finally obtained the westerly winds needed to create an area of low pressure. But now we dont have any shower/storm activity over this low, so therefore it is still not a tropical storm.

[JLM]

We now finally have Tropical Storm Bonnie, and it has also started strengthening. Sustained wind currently at 45 mph. If Bonnie survives as it crosses Central America as forecast, it will keep the name Bonnie. If the low pressure center does not survive and it redevelops and becomes a named storm in the Pacific, it will be given the name Darby.

[JLM]

Bonnie has officially made landfall near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica with a pressure of 997 mb and max winds of 50 mph. NHC has noted that 50 mph may be rather conservative given that the recon plane that just recently left Bonnie reported a small inner core with an open eyewall. Satellite estimates and some of the recon data would support 60-65 mph, however it is safer to bet 50 mph. We will see what the actual intensity was when the NHC releases the Tropical Cyclone Report on Bonnie after the season is over. Bonnie is expected to survive through the mountains of Nicaragua and emerge in the Pacific as a tropical storm. NHC is forecasting a hurricane as it moves out to sea.

Otherwise across the Atlantic Basin, a sneaky little disturbance that originated over the Bahamas and has tracked up the east coast of Florida developed into an area of low pressure off the coast of Georgia earlier today and was dubbed Invest 96L. Right now 96L is centered off the South Carolina coast and is bringing very heavy rainfall to portions of South Carolina, and wind gusts in the Charleston area have been reported to be as high as 50 mph in spots. This is basically tropical storm conditions, although 96L does not meet the requirements to be a named storm. The squally conditions will continue up the coast until it eventually moves out into the Atlantic.

There is another area of interest that still has a 10% chance of development near the Windward Islands, no models are showing development with this and have not shown any for the past couple of days. 

After this wave of activity, our typical July dead period takes full effect, and it appears that the Atlantic will be quiet until the end of the month. Take this quiet period to your advantage and get prepared, because after the end of July, it might be a rather bumpy ride.

[JLM]

Invest 96L became Tropical Storm Colin this morning. It is expected to remain a minimal tropical storm given that it is over land and will continue to be over land for the next 24 hours. Colin is currently located 25 miles west southwest of Myrtle Beach, SC. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for areas from the South Santee River in South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina. This also includes the Pamlico Sound.

[JLM]

Looking at Colin from above, well theres not much to look at. All of its shower and thunderstorm activity is located offshore.

[JLM]

Colin has died over North Carolina. The tropical wave in the Caribbean has also fizzled out. The tropics are quiet for now.

[JLM]

The NHC marked a new disturbance over northwest Georgia this morning and tagged it with a 20% chance of development. This is one of those classic stalling front setups. I will most certainly be watching how this progresses. Regardless of whether or not something develops, rain totals above 3" is in the forecast from the Big Bend of Florida to western Louisiana. There is also a swath of forecasted totals at or above 7" for the coasts of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi.

 

Edited July 10, 2022 by JLM

[JLM]

Some similar situations are Hurricane Danny 1997 and Tropical Storm Emily 2017. Both of those came from frontal boundaries. I'm not sure, but Hurricane Barry 2019 may have also come from a stalled front, but it may have also came from an MCS.

[JLM]

Below is the Euro ensembles, showing a wide range of possibilities. This one will be a headache to forecast.



The newest run of GFS ensemble is a little more clustered it seems like. Overall less members show development than the Euro ensemble.

[JLM]

The operational Euro has jumped on with the German model in showing a full blown tropical storm. Just one run, but worth watching.

[bubba]

Looks like one of those non-moving upper Gulf rain events that seem to happen this time of year.

[JLM]

Chances for development up to 30% this morning. A weak surface trough has formed just offshore from the Panhandle, that is the feature we will watch over the coming days.

[JLM]

Not much has changed with the forecast models for the area of interest today. Although one thing has changed, and that is the rainfall forecast. Some spots along the immediate coasts of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana could see totals at or above 15" if this forecast verifies.
It should be noted that this forecast likely does not take into account the possibility for TC development. If a storm forms, it will serve as a concentration for the highest totals, which could easily exceed 20" given the nearly stationary to slow movement of whatever happens. Regardless of whether something forms or not, it will be a very wet week across the northern Gulf Coast.

 

[bubba]

Thank you for keeping us updated!

[JLM]

Forecast models have downtrended on everything from the development potential to the rainfall amounts. NHC has the disturbance at 10% now given proximity to land. 

[JLM]

The Gulf disturbance has been gone for a couple days now, which means the Atlantic is quiet once again! I should note that once we get another disturbance, whether that be at the end of this month or the very beginning of August, it will likely be active for quite some time. A new run of the ECMWF and UKMET super blend is once again showing above to much above average precipitation during the ASO (August-October) timeframe for the Main Development Region thru the Caribbean, and also the western and northern Gulf of Mexico, across the southeast US, and up the east coast around the Carolinas. Places like the Bahamas and the Florida Straits are depicted to be drier than normal, as well as most of the central Atlantic. This signal suggests that storms may not have the chance to turn north until they get far to the west, which is concerning for everyone in the Caribbean, Central America, and the southeast US, especially the Gulf Coast. Now would be an absolutely splendid time to prepare.

[JLM]

Small signal in the models for a wave over Africa right now. The EPS is by far the most aggressive, and is showing development within the next 10 days as it reaches the islands. Will watch model trends over the coming days, otherwise the tropics are quiet. 

[JLM]

And just like that, the EPS signal went *poof*

[Looking Glass]

Man it’s been hot and dry here for this season (I’ll probably regret saying that in 4-6 weeks).  Rainy season has been a bit of a bust other than minor 1-2 events.  

[bubba]

We are starting to reach that timeframe in south Florida (PB County), when my antennas go up. It seems that we have been very lucky to this point. Once again, our time frame for the Cape Verde armed missiles is August 15-September 15. 
 

I agree that it has been drier than usual for this time of year. That stated, there have been some torrential downpours in random areas that may not agree with this assessment. Praying for another no news year.

[JLM]

On 7/25/2022 at 3:18 AM, Looking Glass said:

Man it’s been hot and dry here for this season (I’ll probably regret saying that in 4-6 weeks).  Rainy season has been a bit of a bust other than minor 1-2 events.  

Cross your fingers!