2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[JLM]

8 minutes ago, bubba said:

I am officially woken up. Earl just hit Herbert’s Box 1. It appears to be predicted to remain westerly. The five day has it at 25.2° N latitude and 65° W longitude.
 

NHC seems to indicate current unfavorable environment for intensification but a Cape Verde that hits Herbert’s Box 1 on September 3rd is a scary proposition for South Florida…

Im almost certain right now that no matter what box Earl is in, it wont be a problem for South Florida. It would be a different situation if that Bermuda high was in place though with no opening for recurves.

[bubba]

Thank you!

[JLM]

Tropics are still active and it appears to remain that way for a while. Danielle is still a hurricane, and is expected to weaken back to a tropical storm tomorrow, and then become post tropical on Thursday. 

Tropical Storm Earl has strengthened some since the last update. Earl now has sustained winds of 65 mph this morning, but lastnight Earl almost became a hurricane. It appears that the shear and dry air has once again gotten to its core and disturbed it. Earl should continue north and should be a hurricane by early tomorrow morning. Earl is now expected to become a major hurricane late Friday night into Saturday before going on a weakening trend. Interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of Earl.

Now for our first disturbance. It has not been designated as an Invest yet to my knowledge, but it has a 40% chance to develop in the next 2 days and a 60% chance to develop in the next 5 days. This one looks like it will end up "following" Earl and will recurve. This one shouldnt be too strong regardless. Next name is Fiona.

We now have a new disturbance that has just been marked. It is still over Africa and should move off today, and if not today then tomorrow. As this one moves offshore, it is possible that it tries to follow behind the first disturbance. It is also possible that the ridge builds back in behind the first disturbance and this disturbance manages to slide west. We will see, something that bears watching over the next week or so. Development chances are at 20% this morning. The next name after Fiona is Gaston.

Looking into the future beyond our current disturbances, ensembles are showing yet another wave coming off behind the newly marked wave. This is peak season and should be expected, but the next wave may also have some development chance, its just that this wave will not move offshore until after the 5 day mark. Keep and eye on these waves, just know that theres no threat to land right now.

[JLM]

Earl is a Category 2 hurricane this morning with sustained winds of 105 mph. Bermuda is currently under a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch. Earl is also now expected to peak as a Category 4 right after it passes Bermuda. 

Danielle is still a tropical storm this morning, however that will change by this afternoon. Danielle is expected to become post/extra tropical today. The remnants of Danielle will go on to impact portions of Europe next week. Impacts will not be significant, nothing more than what a tropical depression would bring, but im sure some rain will be welcome there.

Newly dubbed Invest 95L (the first disturbance) has a 70% chance to develop. It is expected to continue turning out to sea and will not be a problem. Next name is Fiona.

The second disturbance which was over Africa about this time Tuesday, is now over water. With that, development chances have increased slightly to 30% in 5 days. This one *might* recurve, but its future is uncertain in two different ways. The first way is that conditions will be hostile, and development may not happen in the MDR. Second, steering currents are also uncertain right now. If the steering currents are right, it may recurve regardless of development, if not it may try to sneak west. We will see, but i dont anticipate much from this wave at the moment. Next name after Fiona is Gaston.

[bubba]

Good news for us in South Florida/PB County. September 10 (Arnold Palmer’s Bithdate) and there is nothing threatening in the waters between here and the Cape Verde Islands that could reach South Florida. My Grandad taught me the rule that Cape Verde season (most destructive hurricanes) ran from August 15-September 15. Minor exceptions include the 1928 Hurricane, which he experienced in persona, arrived unannounced around 6 PM in the late afternoon of September 16, 1928.

This has been an out of the ordinary hurricane season so far (thankfully). By no means are we free and clear. Sidewinder season commences after Cape Verde. Those are the hurricanes generated deep in the Caribbean that move over the peninsula of Florida coming from the west to east (see Wilma 2005). They can still be dangerous but they are not the venomous hurricanes we know as Cape Verde!

None of this excludes those hurricanes that wander into the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures remain close to 90°F through October. Those can be real bad actors (Camille Cat 5 Bay St. Louis/175 MPH).

 

[JLM]

48 minutes ago, bubba said:

Good news for us in South Florida/PB County. September 10 (Arnold Palmer’s Bithdate) and there is nothing threatening in the waters between here and the Cape Verde Islands that could reach South Florida. My Grandad taught me the rule that Cape Verde season (most destructive hurricanes) ran from August 15-September 15. Minor exceptions include the 1928 Hurricane, which he experienced in persona, arrived unannounced around 6 PM in the late afternoon of September 16, 1928.

This has been an out of the ordinary hurricane season so far (thankfully). By no means are we free and clear. Sidewinder season commences after Cape Verde. Those are the hurricanes generated deep in the Caribbean that move over the peninsula of Florida coming from the west to east (see Wilma 2005). They can still be dangerous but they are not the venomous hurricanes we know as Cape Verde!

None of this excludes those hurricanes that wander into the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures remain close to 90°F through October. Those can be real bad actors (Camille Cat 5 Bay St. Louis/175 MPH).

 

Michael 2018 is the most recent example of a really bad CAG storm. It made a category 5 landfall near Panama City, FL on October 10th that year.

I would say that even if a little bit of shear or dry air is present, a storm in the Gulf would probably still get pretty strong given high ocean temperatures and also patches of high ocean heat content (ocean heat content is how deep the warm water goes). The higher the OHC, the more energy available to hurricanes. Luckily theres nothing that suggests a storm will occur in the Gulf or Caribbean within the next 10 days.

[JLM]

We have 2 areas of interest out there as of 8 PM EDT, but have a low development chance. However, our latest area of interest, which was previously marked when it was over Africa, is making a comeback on the models. We will see how long this lasts, but ill get into all the model data and stuff in a bit. As you all know, the climatological peak of hurricane season is September 10th, and if you were to show me a satellite image of the Atlantic on Saturday that didnt have a time stamp, i would have guessed it was July. Man it looked dead as hell across the Atlantic. Anyways, onto the whole reason why im posting this tonight.

First, we have an area of interest that is currently just off the coast of Africa. It has a low end chance to develop in 5 days due to dry air especially. It is expected to turn northwest and just kinda move on out to sea. It seems rather unlikely right now that it moves west regardless of development. The chance for development is at 20% over the next 5 days.



Now finally, this one is starting to catch some peoples attention, and considering it has been very quite this season i dont blame them. Now with that, theres obviously a lot of room to be skeptical about it, because you know things have been very unfavorable so far. The reason this wave is beginning to have a comeback is because it has been convectively active as of late. If you have seen any satellite images today, you were probably curious about it. Below is the latest satellite image of the wave and also where the National Hurricane Center has their X for it.



Now this convection is not very organized, its just convectively active. This is a good sign for the system, especially if this continues. Im sure if this convection were to start showing more organization, chances will go way up for it. In fact, the most recent model runs of the ECMWF and ICON are picking up on this and are now showing development into a tropical depression or storm in as soon as 3 days from now, or before it reaches the Antilles. Now of course its 2022 so theres some things that may end up working against it, but that may not matter much especially if it can keep its little moisture bubble intact. You can see this moisture bubble on the most recent water vapor imagery. The darker greys are dry air, and the light greys/almost whites is moisture. The brighter it gets, the higher the moisture content.



Now as i said, the darker values is drier air, and you can see that theres some dry air between our wave and the Antilles. This could cause some issues for it. This is partly why im skeptical about the most recent ECMWF and ICON solutions. Not only that, but on both of the above satellite images you can see evidence of some shear. Yes, theres shear in the MDR in the peak of hurricane season, its just another 2022 thing. As of right now, this shear is not significantly impacting the wave, but if it can push some dry air into this pocket of moisture then the current convection could easily go poof. 

Now for some actual model data. I dont plan to show anything too far into the short term, ill likely only show data up to the point where it reaches the Antilles. We will start with the latest ECMWF. It really had a big uptick in the organization and intensity of this thing as it nears the Antilles. Below is an image of the most recent run (18z), it is showing at least a tropical depression as it nears the Antilles. 



Now compare that to the 12z run. It is much weaker on the previous run than it is now. This is likely due to the current convection.



The speed is about the same, although on the 12z run it was just a strong tropical wave with a pretty sharp wave axis. Now lets compare to the GFS. It has not really liked the idea of something getting going before the Antilles. In fact, because it is so weak on the GFS it shows wave (barely a wave on this model) plowing through the islands and not hitting any open water again until the Gulf of Mexico, but we wont get into that since thats almost 10 days away. Here it is below:



These differences are creating a HUGE range of possibilities. Really anything from a tropical depression/minimal tropical storm at the greatest to a tropical wave that barely has any affect on the wind flow at the lowest is our range. There are still subtle differences even in the ensembles between the GFS and the Euro. The GFS hardly pays much attention to it with a wimpy 5-8 members that even acknowledge it. Here is the GFS ensemble.
 

The ECMWF ensemble is much more bullish and has been for several runs. The EPS was the first to really even sound the alarm on anything. Below is the EPS.



The signal on the EPS is much bigger than the GEFS for sure. One thing is for certain though, regardless of whether or not this wave develops before the Antilles, the Antilles will be in for some rain and gusty winds later this week as the wave passes through. It currently has a low end chance of development at 10% in 2 days and 20% in 5 days. I feel like this may go up a little, but unless models really start showing it develop and/or it begins to increase in organization then development chances will probably remain low for now. With all of that, steering currents looks like it will continue moving west beyond the Antilles, and the earlier Euro run today actually suggested something developing near the Bahamas beyond 7 days from this wave. It is something to watch for sure, and its a reminder that hurricane season does still exist despite popular belief. Below is the NHC map showing the 5 day development zone.

[JLM]

A quick update this morning on our wave in question:

[SeanK]

Today's report was for 70% chance of tropical storm development, moving westward across PR&DR. After that, not sure if west or northwest trajectory.

[JLM]

16 minutes ago, SeanK said:

Today's report was for 70% chance of tropical storm development, moving westward across PR&DR. After that, not sure if west or northwest trajectory.

Actually as of 2 PM earlier today, 96L became Tropical Depression Seven. Based on recent satellite data, it might be upgraded to a tropical storm tonight. Next name is Fiona.

[JLM]

Its official, we now have Tropical Storm Fiona. Max winds at 50 mph, already stronger than the forecast.

[JLM]

[JLM]

New forecast is out for Tropical Storm Fiona. No track changes, however the intensity forecast has been bumped up to 60 mph from 45 mph at the previous advisories.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the following locations:
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- St. Maarten
- Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

Here's a reminder of what tropical alerts mean:

- A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area in the next 48 hours.

- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely somewhere within the warning area in the next 24-36 hours.

- A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area in the next 48 hours.

- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are likely somewhere within the warning area in the next 24-36 hours.

Below is the forecast cone and intensity forecast:

[JLM]

There are lots of possible outcomes as to where Fiona might go. So lets take a look at those possible outcomes. Right now i wouldnt say that its likely to recurve before reaching the Bahamas, but i also wouldnt say that its likely that this hits Florida or gets in the Gulf.

A lot of these track differences will be sorted out in real time. With pacific typhoons disrupting the jet stream, steering components may change quickly and Fiona could have a pretty erratic track in the end. Short term differences in speed and intensity will play probably the biggest role in determining what it does in the medium range. A faster and stronger Fiona will lead to a recurve likely before Hispaniola, this would lead to an out to sea track more than likely. A weaker and slower Fiona would likely lead to a more westward track, and at that point chances for impacts to the CONUS go up. Some European ensemble members are going into the Gulf of Mexico at the western extent, and some members are also going out to sea past Bermuda at the eastern extent. The EPS seems to really capture the spread of most of the other models except for the GFS and its ensemble. The GFS is faster and much stronger, its currently showing a hurricane over the USVI. This is likely way overdone, especially given the shear and dry air it will face as it nears the islands. The European however is slower and weaker in the near term. Once Fiona gets into the Caribbean south of Hispaniola, it begins to strengthen. On the Euro, Fiona moves over Hispaniola and weakens out. It then tracks into the Bahamas where it begins to redevelop, however a cold front sweeps down and begins to carry it out to sea on this run. Now for the CMC, which is on the lower end of the spectrum. It shows Fiona being a weak storm moving through the Caribbean and it doesnt really strengthen at all. It moves westward and quickly develops over the Gulf Stream near South Florida and moves into the Gulf of Mexico where it then makes a landfall in Mississippi. Right now im not buying this solution, however it is showing what may happen to Fiona if shear and dry air continuously nag at the storm and it never fully organizes. The ICON, which is usually more in line with the Euro is currently on the GFS side. ICON is showing a weak storm that enters the Caribbean, and it strengthens and tightens up south of Puerto Rico. It then moves over Puerto Rico without really being fazed and it continues generally NNW and is a strengthening hurricane out over the Atlantic. The GFS ensemble seems pretty set on a stronger and faster Fiona and most members go out to sea. However there are still members to meander further west.

My opinion, the European operational seems like a pretty good consensus on short term track in the Caribbean. After the Caribbean, its anyones guess as to where Fiona will go. We just gotta keep watch on the models and see how things trend over the next several days. Again, short term differences is probably the biggest cause of the huge uncertainty right now. Once it gets into the Caribbean, hopefully we will have a better idea as to whether or not it recurves or heads further west. 

[JLM]

Also im sure the Herbert's Box 1 will come up somewhere in this thread again soon. Theres no guarantee that it will or will not impact Florida. This is a highly uncertain forecast. Also, technically these boxes only apply to storms that move into the box with winds of 110 mph or greater, which Fiona will be far from. That being said, this box should only be used as a guide and given that, if you live in Florida you should keep an eye on Fiona.

[bubba]

Thank you for your outstanding coverage! Much better than the national hurricane center!

[JLM]

1 hour ago, bubba said:

Thank you for your outstanding coverage! Much better than the national hurricane center!

Lets be fair here, the information im sharing here is from the National Hurricane Center. I do certainly appreciate the feedback!

Fiona is a little weaker this morning and the windshield wiper effect is starting on the models. Yesterday they trended weaker/west and this morning they are trending stronger/east. Models will either trend back towards the west, or the east solution will become dominant and Fiona wont be a problem for the CONUS. There is still loads of time to watch.

[JLM]

Here a look at the alerts in place as of the latest advisory:

[JLM]

Fiona is experiencing really no change in intensity. Very heavy rain and tropical storm force winds impacting portions of the Leeward Islands tonight. Fiona likely wont strengthen a whole lot before reaching Hispaniola, where Tropical Storm Watch have been issued tonight. Fiona's track is trending east still tonight, the upper pattern is looking more favorable for a quicker recurve, and most models are catching onto this. Below is a map showing current alerts as of 4 PM AST (AST = Atlantic Standard Time and is basically just EDT, or Eastern Daylight Time).

[JLM]

Below is a satellite image showing all of the current features in the Atlantic, and also spots that are either currently being watched by the NHC or spots that may be worth watching.

Fiona stands out a lot tonight on IR satellite, with lots of deep convection firing around the center and on the eastern side of the storm. Fiona has been bumped back up to 60 mph, RECON is flying in the storm right now doing center fixes. 

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lester will be making landfall along the coast of Mexico tomorrow as a low end tropical storm. Otherwise in the Pacific, there is another disturbance that is being monitored with high development probabilities in the next 5 days. This will not have an affect on anything in the Atlantic, but why not mark it as a feature since its in the satellite image?

For Atlantic disturbances, we will start with the one closest to Bermuda. It has a low 10% chance to develop in 5 days. The development window is pretty short, and pretty much after the disturbance passes Bermuda all development chances come to an end. The second disturbance is currently in the MDR and is moving north out to sea. Its window for development is also rather short and chances are pretty low.

There is one disturbance in the MDR right now that currently embedded in the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone). Some European ensemble members along with the ICON model are picking up on some development just beyond the 5 day mark as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Remember that the ICON model first picked up on Fiona, then the European ensemble picked up on it, and from there more and more models picked up on it. Then all of a sudden we have a new tropical depression. The same could happen here, but there may be more obstacles for this wave than what Fiona has. It is worth watching, but its nothing pressing.

Edited September 17, 2022 by JLM
forgot the friggin satellite image LOL

[kinzyjr]

4 minutes ago, JLM said:

Looks like mother nature is playing Cover 2 with a spy on the QB.

[JLM]

Puerto Rico has been put under a Hurricane Warning as of the latest advisory.

[JLM]

New storm surge forecast from the NHC:

[kinzyjr]

You can definitely tell that the Atlantic is awake when I start seeing more than just Amazon planes flying over the yard while I'm weeding and mowing:

• Hurricane Hunters FB: https://www.facebook.com/NOAAHurricaneHunters/
• Aircraft Operations: https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations

[bubba]

Fiona looks like a Sea storm. Very strange hurricane season.

[JLM]

7 hours ago, bubba said:

Fiona looks like a Sea storm. Very strange hurricane season.

Yep, Fiona will go out to sea. Looks likely that Fiona becomes our first major hurricane. After Fiona, im not sure what else there is to watch in the short term.

[bubba]

Beware Sidewinder Season…

[JLM]

29 minutes ago, bubba said:

Beware Sidewinder Season…

So about that...

We have a signal from both the EPS and GEFS ensembles for about the 10 day mark. Its something to watch long term, but at this stage in time we are just in pattern identification. The pattern looks to favor something in the western Caribbean, but nothing pressing right now. Just keep watching.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Fiona made landfall yesterday in the southwestern corner of Puerto Rico as a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is especially one of those cases where the category DOES NOT matter. Fiona has dumped between 20-25 inches of rainfall across the island, and the storm also wiped out most of the power grid there, making communications difficult. More rainfall and flash flooding is expected through today.

Fiona has also made another landfall in the Dominican Republic this morning as a Category 1, Fiona is still over land this morning as im typing this. The storm will move offshore later today and will move north, brushing the Bahamas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. For the 5 day forecast, Fiona is expected to become the first major hurricane of the season. The current forecast shows Fiona passing close to Bermuda as a Category 3, so if we have any Bermuda citizens here they need to pay close attention to the forecast for Fiona.

Some comparisons to Hurricane Hortense 1996 have been made with Hurricane Fiona, and ill be damned...
 

Hortense also caused major flash flooding across Puerto Rico, as is Fiona. Also, Fiona's future track looks very similar to Hortense's track. Its almost eerie!! (Image below is the track of Hurricane Hortense 1996 from Wikipedia)

Edited September 19, 2022 by JLM

[Matthew92]

 

 

[JLM]

2 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

 

 

Yea this wave has uptrended quite a lot today. 

NHC has short term development chances at 20% for this wave.

[JLM]

Here are our features on satellite tonight.

First one is Hurricane Fiona, which is now a Category 2 hurricane with max winds of 100 mph. Fiona is forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday, and is expected to pass Bermuda as a Category 3 on Thursday night or Friday morning. By Saturday, Fiona is expected to be near or over Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane. Yes, it is expected to keep its tropical characteristics far enough north to bring a possible direct hurricane impact to Atlantic Canada. This is not a guarantee, but interests in the Bahamas where Hurricane Warnings are in place, in Bermuda, and in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland should all keep an eye on Fiona.

The second one is Invest 97L, located over the open Atlantic. Development chances have gone up to 40% tonight. This one will not impact anybody. Next name is Gaston.

The third and final one tonight (besides the Pacific disturbance which has minimal development chances) is a tropical wave located in the MDR. This wave is expected to move west into the Caribbean Sea. Development odds are now up to 30% as of the latest update by the NHC. There will be nothing that will stop this wave from moving westward, the only thing preventing short term development is outflow shear from Hurricane Fiona to the northwest. Once Fiona has exited the picture, odds become better for development. Once this wave gets into the Western Caribbean, it could get ugly. The environment could be nearly shear-free, and with the jet fuel for hurricanes that is the Western Caribbean sea surface temperatures, it will not be hard for something to develop quickly. The next names are Gaston, and ironically Hermine (you know, the one that broke Florida's hurricane drought).

Please do not post any model data beyond 120 hours for at least the next few days for this disturbance, some of the data does not look good and theres no point in getting all worked up over it right now. Models will struggle and they will uptrend and downtrend and shift every which direction until we get a well defined center that models can track.

Edited September 20, 2022 by JLM
forgot the satellite AGAIN LOL

[Matthew92]

This is posted not for exact track just for an idea of what the steering setup could potentially be like. Comment by a knowledgeable participant on a weather blog I follow.

[JLM]

17 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

This is posted not for exact track just for an idea of what the steering setup could potentially be like. Comment by a knowledgeable participant on a weather blog I follow.

Just my opinion, but i feel right now it would be much better to look at this same product but on the ensembles. 

And not gonna lie, the operational isnt too far off from the ensemble, which is surprising for this range. Using the ensemble gives a range of possible solutions ranging from being picked up by the trough and pulled up the east coast to being caught by the ridge and moving westward towards the NW Gulf. 



Right now though, we have to watch the short term to see where the wave will end up and where it develops, until then this is all just pattern recognition.

Edited September 20, 2022 by JLM

[JLM]

This morning as of the 8 AM update, our MDR wave is up to 50% in 5 days. At this rate, it will be 70% by 8 PM tonight. Confidence is quickly growing, and this thing will likely be an invest before the day ends. Next invest number is 98L. And it appears that this one may not get the name Gaston. Our other disturbance that has been out there for a while is up to 80% this morning, and could become a TD/TS at any time.

[JLM]

Heres our features this morning. Fiona is now a major hurricane, the first one of the season. Fiona is now forecast to become a 140 mph Category 4 before its all said and done. Interests in Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland should watch closely.
97L is better organized this morning, and if it forms it wont be very strong. Next name is Gaston.
The next one is our MDR wave which will probably enter the Caribbean tomorrow, and it looks pretty good this morning. Development chances are increasing quickly for this one, and Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the US Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula should be watching the progress of this one.

[Aceraceae]

It's interesting how every time the water is a little extra warm they call it jet fuel for hurricanes yet there was a lot of waffling on the consensus of weather stronger hurricanes would be a part of a warmer climate change, because of a possible increase in wind shear and other countering factors.

A decrease in the amount of hurricanes but an increase of rapid intensification of the few that make it. A Carnot heat engine needs a delta in temperature I suppose a gas engine should run better when it's cold out once it's warm. 

[bubba]

Sidewinder?

[JLM]

45 minutes ago, bubba said:

Sidewinder?

Its possible, no solution is a guarantee right now though.

[JLM]

Bigish update this morning. Not because i have one particular disturbance that i want to talk about a lot, but because we now have 5 different systems to look at.

1) We will start with Hurricane Fiona, which is now a Category 4 hurricane this morning with max sustained winds at 130 mph. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Bermuda due to Fiona. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland should already have preparations underway for Fiona. This could end up being a rather significant impact there, given that winds will be within Category 2 strength at least, and then also storm surge will be a possibility. 

2) Next is Tropical Storm Gaston, which formed yesterday over the open Atlantic. It may have honestly briefly been a hurricane yesterday, but right now it is high end tropical storm with max winds of 65 mph. Gaston will not impact anybody and doesnt have much more time left before unfavorable conditions set in.

3) Invest 98L is the third disturbance on the board this morning. 98L now has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 2 days, and a 90% chance of becoming a depression or storm in the next 5 days. The NHC development area really only extends out to the 72 hour mark, so generally one can expect development of at least a tropical depression within the next 3 days. At the 120 hour mark (5 day), it is currently expected to be near or southwest of Jamaica. Beyond 5 days is honestly just a gamble, models have been back and forth and up and down in intensity. One model takes it across the Florida Peninsula in the long range while another takes it into the Panhandle. They are all over the place with different possible solutions, but i expect some of these issues will be cleared whenever/if we end up with a center. Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Central America, and the US Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula should be monitoring the forecast, just note that a storm likely wont enter the Gulf, if it does, until next Wednesday give or take.

4) The next one is the wave thats still over Africa, which has a 50% chance of development in 5 days. It is expected to turn north almost immediately once it moves off of Africa. If something forms over there, it will be rather weak and short lived.

5) The final disturbance on the watch list this morning is a newly marked wave over the central MDR, it has a low chance for gradual development as it moves northwest and then west. Chance of development is 20% in 5 days.



PS: I didnt forget the satellite image this time!

[JLM]

As of the latest information from the NHC, Bermuda has now been placed under a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch.