2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[JLM]

We have a pretty active map for November right now. Lisa is entering the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Depression. Lisa made landfall in Belize as a Category 1 hurricane. Lisa will die out over the Bay of Campeche as another front moves through. 

The second spot to look at is the area of low pressure out near Bermuda, it has a 10% chance to develop over the next 5 days. It will likely not be much of a threat to anyone.

The last spot to look at is the southwest Atlantic. We do not have a marked spot yet, but we have been given an area that a low pressure system may develop. This system will be very large once it does develop, and there is a 40% chance that this broad low will acquire some subtropical characteristics. If it does become a named system, then heavy rainfall, gusty winds along the southeast US Coast, and high surf/rip currents and coastal flooding will be felt all across the southeast Coast. If this does not become a named system, then heavy rainfall, gusty winds along the southeast US Coast, and high surf/rip currents and coastal flooding will be felt all across the southeast Coast. Basically what im saying is that the impacts will be the same no matter what label it gets. This low could begin impacting the SE Coast by Monday. Rain chances over there may last all week due to this huge disturbance. Below is the 7 day rainfall forecast, which shows just how much of a coastal event this will probably be.


Why will the winds be so widespread over a large area? Well, with this big low over the Bahamas/Florida and a large high pressure system over the northeast states, the pressure gradient will get pretty tight. This is the WPC's forecast for Wednesday. I have circle the pressure gradient on the map to point it out. Being in the circle does not mean you will have high winds, the highest wind will occur along the coast, but gusty winds may still happen further inland across the Carolinas and Georgia.

With this onshore flow, coastal flooding will likely be an issue, especially since we have the Beaver Moon coming up soon. How much coastal flooding is too early to determine, but if you live along the immediate coast and you are prone to coastal flooding, keep an eye on this one.

High surf and rip currents will likely make it unsafe for swimming activities all over the SE Coast. If you plan to travel to the Carolinas, Georgia, or eastern Florida, keep an eye on this if you plan to be at the beach.

[JLM]

Heres the latest NHC outlook. 60% chance of development over the next 5 days for the disturbance that is currently located over the Caribbean. This system is expected to move into the southwest Atlantic, and could develop into a subtropical or tropical depression by the middle of next week. Movement should be west to west northwest. The threat for coastal flooding and heavy rainfall is increasing across the southeast coast.

[JLM]

2 PM Update from the NHC. Chances for our SW Atlantic disturbance now up to 70% in 5 days. The GFS uptrended in this run, and with the pattern that will be in play, a poorly organized hurricane may not be out of question. This is all speculation, and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, the threat for coastal flooding (possibly significant considering the King Tides are coming up next week), heavy rainfall, and gusty winds is increasing along the southeast coast.

[JLM]

NHC said the following in their outlook discussion as of the 1 PM EST update:

"Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas beginning in the middle to early part of this week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by early Monday."

Now would be an absolutely splendid time to have a look at your hurricane plan. Now would also be a great time to start preparing for at least a minimal hurricane, just in case. 

Just remember, this will likely not be your typical tropical cyclone. It will be a very far reaching and widespread event. If/when a forecast cone is issued, DO NOT FOCUS ON WHETHER YOU ARE IN/OUT OF THE CONE!! The impacts will extend FAR from the edge of the cone.

[bubba]

Tropical Tidbit’s Consensus Runs show this as TS affecting South Florida on Thursday (50 MPH). Grumbling up the state through Friday as it dissipates (35 MPH North Florida) and heads through Georgia and South Carolina. That stated, Irma had low wind speed predictions at this time and we know that horrible story.

[JLM]

Subtropical Storm Nicole has officially been named. It is expected to be near hurricane intensity by the time it reaches the peninsula. Tropical Storm, Hurricane, and Storm Surge Watches may be required for a nice size chunk of the Florida east coast later today.

Based on the overnight model runs, the trend has been towards a later trough arrival, which means this could get into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. If the storm manages to cross the state, it would bring widespread impacts across the peninsula and northeast Florida. These impacts would likely be prolonged as the system slows down when it begins to make a sharp turn to the north and then northeast. This almost seems like a worst case scenario for this storm, since all the rain and storm activity will be on the north and east side of the storm (over the FL peninsula in this case).

The best case scenario would be if the trough speeds up significantly and Nicole turns before reaching the east coast, but this is becoming more unlikely.

Either way, coastal flooding will be a big problem especially with King Tides. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be an issue, but how widespread this threat is is still to be determined. Strong gusty winds will be possible all across the state, except for areas south of the low. Areas south of the low will have much lower winds than areas north of the low. Gusty winds will be an issue not just in Florida, but on the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia, across inland Georgia into southeastern Alabama. How far west the highest winds make it will be determined by how far west Nicole ends up. There are a lot of what ifs right now, but hopefully some of the questions will be answered with RECON data, we have TDR (Tail Doppler Radar) and Upper Level missions set to happen today.

[PalmatierMeg]

Deja vu. I still got 8’ high piles of dead trees and palms ringing our yard - 300 running feet of dead palms and trees. After Nicole maybe 9’ high piles. The good news: I don’t have much landscaping left to decimate. Just another day in Paradise.

[JLM]

Hurricane Watches issued for the FL east coast from Broward County to Brevard County. Tropical Storm Watch for coastal Miami-Dade County as well as for all areas in between Volusia County FL to Glynn County GA. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Broward County FL to Glynn County GA.

Nicole is now expected to be a hurricane at landfall, preparations should begin today across the peninsula.

[kinzyjr]

Hoping this is rain event rather than another strong storm.

[JLM]

I decided to get crafty, not sure how many of these ill actually be able to do in the future, but here it is. 

[Merlyn]

Most probable spaghetti models have it landing around Melbourne to New Smyrna as a Cat 1 hurricane.  Some of the models still show Tropical Storm force winds, so hopefully it'll stay low speed and just barely approach Cat1. 

[Jimbean]

Getting a subtropical storm as a opposed to a tropical storm is pretty novel already.  This thing seems to have a pretty wide wind field. 

[Merlyn]

And of course after I posted that screenshot they are shifting the path South to maybe land near Port St. Lucie.  So far still a Cat1...

[JLM]

Ive noticed this as a theme for storms that are moving southwest and are forecast to turn northwest then north. They tend to take longer than forecasted to make that turn. Who knows, but impacts are set to begin tomorrow (in terms of actual wind and surge). 

Heres a look at the alerts as of the most recent update:



Do note that this will not just be a Florida impact. Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings extend further north into Georgia. Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches have been issued today for the rest of the Georgia coast into the South Carolina Coast.

[Jimbean]

The winds are picking up really nicely here in south Brevard!  Some of these gusts are close to 30 miles per hour.

[Looking Glass]

At 04:30, we are getting little gusts and rain, like a typical summer storm.  Not much going on.  Will pick up throughout the day, and are expecting a fairly direct hit, but at Cat 1, not expecting much other than a rainy/windy day.    I positioned some of the potted stuff in protected areas and tied the big stuff in pots to the fence out back just in case.    

Enjoy some 04:30am shots of the front.....  (man, pictures make everything look so small)

I grew up in a gloomy, storm-prone area where sunshine was a luxury, so I always find stormy days kind of relaxing.  Will enjoy a decent rest on a lazy, rainy day today.  

Edited November 9, 2022 by Looking Glass

[D. Morrowii]

Man, thats a chunky bottle palm! 
 

Gusty winds and intermittent drizzle here in MI. 

[JLM]

Nicole, as expected, has become a Category 1 hurricane. Nicole is expected to make landfall in the next few hours. No changes to the forecast have occurred.

[Looking Glass]

Despite bad looking radar, all it’s been here is light to medium rain, on and off today.   Went to go out for dinner, and was surprised to find places closed.  
 

 

[kinzyjr]

Currently:

The track looks like the storm will come through pretty close.

[JLM]

Nicole getting ready to make landfall, which will be somewhere around Port St Lucie.

[JLM]

Heres a good look at the radar for Nicole. Look at how big that eye is!

[Jimbean]

I've been getting tropical storm force gusts for the last hour and a half. 

[Jimbean]

This reminds me of hurricane Erin back in 1995

T

[Bill H2DB]

Here is a SWFMD radar image at about 4:30 am .  And a Screen shot of the STEM weather site directly on the Beach here in Daytona . Note the wind gust . 

[JLM]

After Nicole passes, there seem to be no other signals in the models right now that indicate tropical formation through the rest of the month. This may very well be the last storm of the season. Things can change, but its getting close to that time of years where the tropics shut down for winter as if it were a tourist destination.

[JLM]

Well this is just eerie...
 

 

[Jimbean]

3 hours ago, Bill H2DB said:

Here is a SWFMD radar image at about 4:30 am .  And a Screen shot of the STEM weather site directly on the Beach here in Daytona . Note the wind gust . 

84 mph wind gust?  I was in Melbourne/Palm Bay close to US-1 and got the inner feeder bands and the so called eye wall and say maybe 45 mph gusts

[Jimbean]

15 minutes ago, JLM said:

Well this is just eerie...
 

 

I live in south Brevard, and both were basically minimal tropical storms here.

[Bill H2DB]

39 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

84 mph wind gust?  I was in Melbourne/Palm Bay close to US-1 and got the inner feeder bands and the so called eye wall and say maybe 45 mph gusts

Yes I question that also , but the Ch 9 guys did note some readings in the 70's in the DB area , maybe from PWS's .

   They also noted the NASA reported 100mph from the Artemis launch set up, and of course that is up on the tower .

[Bill H2DB]

57 minutes ago, JLM said:

Well this is just eerie...
 

 

   Maybe it means that in 2043 , 2 storms ,  one from the Gulf ,  and one from the Atlantic  ,  will collide and combine   o days apart .

 

or not.....

[kinzyjr]

The highest wind gust I've measured here was just shy of 20mph.  That number is not official in any way as there are windbreaks in place along the perimeter of the property to mitigate advective cold fronts.  At Lakeland Linder (KLAL), they've recorded a gust of 47mph at this point.  Just went down the road and noticed there is a PVC fence blown over on a more open property as well as a street sign tilted out of the ground.

[Jimbean]

 

[Jimbean]

Melbourne airport recorded a sustained wind of 58 mph and a wind gust of 67 mph.  I'm surprised because I don't live that far away from there and I don't think I saw any winds like that. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/melbourne/KMLB

[Bill H2DB]

7 hours ago, Bill H2DB said:

Yes I question that also , but the Ch 9 guys did note some readings in the 70's in the DB area , maybe from PWS's .

   They also noted the NASA reported 100mph from the Artemis launch set up, and of course that is up on the tower .

   Not to beat a dead horse here , but just now , Channel 9 Orlando just re-stated the 84 mph at Daytona Beach , and 88 mph at the Artemis site.

   Others were Port Canaveral 75 , Melbourne 73  , Indiatlantic  70 , Orlando Executive Air Port 66.

Our Volusia County coast took a big hit from this storm , with a number of buildings condemned , ranging from Condos to single homes being undermined .

  They'll certainly be videos on youtube etc . 

[JLM]

Yep, and some people were thinking that this was "just a Cat 1". Well see, this can happen with a "Cat 1". If this had been a 70 mph tropical storm, the impacts would have been no different. This is another example of why the category does not matter. 

The beach erosion in Volusia County and in other places may have everlasting impacts to those areas. Despite being a "Cat 1", this was a rather high impact storm for the state of Florida.

[D. Morrowii]

We had very minor damage here in MI but did lose some palms and plants. Sadly an 18’ tall Ptychosperma elegans snapped in two. It also looks like I’ll have to wait another year before I’m able to try some home grown ice cream bananas or cuban reds. 
The high sustained winds on my weather station were in the mid to high 20s and highest gust was 53. The weather station averages wind speed over 2 min so I think those readings can be deceiving. Nicole was worse for us wind wise than Ian was for sure.   

[kinzyjr]

@D. Morrowii Sorry to hear of the plant damage, but at least you and the property are OK.

[Looking Glass]

4 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

 

 

 

 

Ptychosperma elegans seem to do poorly in hurricanes.   Sorry about the bananas too.   A friend gave me a bunch of the ice cream ones (to eat).  They are awesome….   And I don’t really even like bananas normally.  

Ian was nowhere near us, and the outer bands of the storm were much, much worse than Nicole, which was pretty much on top of us.   It was less eventful than a typical summer thunderstorm here.  I had one small tipped over pot.   Maybe because we were on the south side.  

[D. Morrowii]

2 hours ago, Looking Glass said:

Ptychosperma elegans seem to do poorly in hurricanes.   Sorry about the bananas too.   A friend gave me a bunch of the ice cream ones (to eat).  They are awesome….   And I don’t really even like bananas normally.  

Ian was nowhere near us, and the outer bands of the storm were much, much worse than Nicole, which was pretty much on top of us.   It was less eventful than a typical summer thunderstorm here.  I had one small tipped over pot.   Maybe because we were on the south side.  

These p elegans made it through Matthew, Irma and Ian but I guess Nicole was the last straw. Maybe the added height gave the wind that little bit of extra leverage it needed. 
Interesting how the different storms affected different areas. Irma which never really even got close to us here was by far worse than either of these last two. Signs down all over, roof tiles lifted, gas station canopies toppled etc. The center of low during Ians trek across the state went right over us that Thursday morning and that one just felt like a prolonged bad storm here. I think the top winds my weather station recorded were 25s/44g.