A rare sight out west... Hurricane Kay

[Silas_Sancona]

With the worst of the heat looking to back off a bit across the west over the next few days, attention turns to potential impacts from a rarely experienced weather phenomenon along the west coast of the U.S.

While remnants of dying storms do spread clouds and higher humidity levels, the occasional, brief tropical shower / Dry / high-based thunderstorm outbreak across the state from time to time through the summer and fall months almost each year,  significant effects from Tropical systems that manage to reach near shore waters of California are extremely rare. While it has happened, direct hits from legit Tropical storms / Hurricane strength systems are noted in California weather history, but exceptionally rare, at least for the time being.

Simply put, while water right near the shoreline can briefly ( ..and have, in recent " Marine heatwaves " ) reach 80F in S. Cal.,  the depth of any warm water that might pool off Southern CA. is often too shallow to support a passing tropical system.. Break the connection to warm water, and a tropical storm will not be able to maintain itself.  Water temps would have to reach 80-83F, extend well offshore, and to a depth of at least 50 meters/ 164ft to provide enough fuel to keep a passing storm going.  Due to upwelling of cold water via the California Current, development of  extensive areas of warm water like this are rare and require very unique conditions to develop. When they do, it is often during El Nino years when upwelling influence from the California Current is reduced and warm water has an easier time migrating north from Southern Baja during the mid/ late summer.

In what was looking to be another lackluster " La Nina " down year for the East Pac. Hurricane season, seems it has been a bit more active than forecast back in May..  While most storms have stayed well south and out to sea this year, which is typical,  late August- roughly the start of October is  the main " window of opportunity " for tropical storms that form near the coast of southwestern Mexico, or near the mouth of the Gulf of California to move more north vs. taking a westerly/ northwesterly, out-into-the-Pacific path and directly impact areas of mainland Mexico surrounding the Gulf of California, and occasionally, the Pacific coast of Baja / coast of Southern California.  This is also Arizona and the overall southwest's best opportunities for experiencing the effects of Tropical storm activity that makes it this far north.


 We here in Central and eastern AZ may miss out on a majority of the rain, it is looking more and more like this will be one of those rare years when a Tropical storm has just enough strength to bring both wind and significant rainfall to portions of Southern California, even though the storm center itself is forecast to stay offshore and not make a landfall.

While still a couple days out, at this point, the room for wiggle room in the forecast for the upcoming weekend is quickly closing and it is looking like some parts of San Diego county may see 3+ inches of rainfall in the mountains, east facing slopes especially,  and possibly up to 1.5-2" in a few favored spots closer to the coast. Many other areas around coastal S. Cal. could see .25-.80" of rainfall as well. ***Obviously, exact amounts will be different than suggested totals and where the good rains fall will shift around between now and Friday night. ( Have seen upwards of 7-8" suggested for the central/ southern mountains / 2+ inches for coastal areas of San Diego by a few especially bullish GFS  model runs )***

Wind effects will help create another unusual weather event. Because they will be moving up and over the coastal mountains -from the east, winds associated with Kay as she approaches will help to create brief Santa Ana-esque conditions over coastal San Diego county and could push temperatures to /over 100F on Friday / keep overnight lows warm/ hot closer to the coast.  Later, winds will relax  as Kay moves away from the coast. Right now, winds look to peak out in the 25-35/40mph range w/ gusts to/over 50mph on Friday.

For now, winds look lighter over the rest of S. Cal on Friday as Kay reaches northern Baja.

As for surf conditions ..I'm sure several PT members are closely monitoring this as well.. A snippet from Stormsurf on what is anticipated around S. Cal this weekend:  ***Note, this is as of yesterday's forecast update. I'm sure another will be issued tomorrow. ***



Rain chances go up area-wide around the same time ( 40-50% by Friday night )

For the rest of California, remnants from Kay should spread over a good chunk of the state. Though " beneficial " rainfall chances look to stay mostly confined to S.Cal.. widely scattered / isolated activity may occur elsewhere. A big thing to watch for would be dry Thunderstorm activity over the Sierras / elsewhere over the weekend/ early next week. As hot and dry as it has been, we don't need any more wildfire issues..

Moisture may eventually spread into Nevada, parts of S.E. Oregon and Utah at some point as well.

Here across AZ, S.W. part of the state looks to win out rainfall-wise this time ( Yes Yuma, that means it might actually rain there, haha ).. Rest of the state, low elevation areas esp. will be lucky to receive .10-.25" thru the weekend / into the start of next week. For us, the biggest benefit from Kay will be knocking down temperatures, extra clouds, some breezes, and higher humidity.. While no cool spell, we'll at least get temperatures down closer to normal ( 99-102F ) by the weekend, and keep them near normal next week. Lows may finally drop back into the mid/ upper 70's as well.

If Kay's forecast track decides to surprise everyone and shifts a little more east, putting more influence from it in the Gulf over the next 48hours, then we could see more rainfall / wind effects over a wider area here in AZ instead of California..

Regardless of the outcome, some relief from the heat and dry conditions is on the way for most and ..it's nice to see " Hurricane Warnings " issued off northern Baja / Tropical storm warnings issued in the Gulf ( Of CA. ) ( Why no tropical storm-related products issued off San Diego? ) for a change..  I myself wouldn't mind a full fledged Hurricane threat sometime in the near future. " Hurricane X makes landfall in " just sounds neat..



As far as the heatwave goes, a couple final thoughts from yesterday...









 

[JLM]

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued all the way up to the US/Mexico border. Very interesting...

[Silas_Sancona]

4 hours ago, JLM said:

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued all the way up to the US/Mexico border. Very interesting...

They extended the T.S warning up into the waters just outside the S. Cal Bight. and hoisted a Gale warning inside it..  I kind of understand the reasoning, ...kind of, lol.. I myself might have included the T.S warning in the nearer shore waters right off San Diego and Orange Counties, but that's just me, haha..




What's weird about this set up is the unusual period of hot and HUMID downsloping winds that will occur today/ tomorrow over San Diego, before significant rain arrives..  Same winds under typical downsloping conditions bring the hot dry " Santa Anas " to S. Cal. .  This time around, the same setup will pull soupy, tropical air west over the mountains from the deserts / Gulf of CA, yet still heat up as they descend off the mountains toward the coast, which means places like Downtown San Diego might hit the mid / upper 90s tomorrow..

Coast -facing side of the mountains could see whats called a Mountain Wave ( Think of the cloud formation(s) that form on the east side of the Rockies at times ) with the eastern slopes ( which are typically rain shadowed ) getting dumped on. Deserts there, and in S.W. AZ could see a year or two's worth of rain if   things play out as currently suggested..

 Crazy to think  had Kay wandered up the Gulf instead of tracking to the west of it, ...and stayed at the stronger end of suggested strength from earlier model runs, we could have had a legit Hurricane make landfall here.. Perhaps something at or just below 980mb in strength. 

While the remnants of.. or legit effects from minimal-strength tropical storms passing over the state aren't too unusual, a solid / moderate strength cat. 1 passing intact over Tucson ..or Phoenix would be. 
 

[JLM]

Wow....

[Silas_Sancona]

26 minutes ago, JLM said:

Wow....

This was posted as well:



Whats crazy is we're close enough Kay, but the most " wind " we might see here are some 10-20mph-ish breezes at times tomorrow.

*If the link works:
At least one video showing flooding on the Gulf facing side in Baja Sur.
 

Occurring up near Lake Tahoe at At the same time:

[Jimbean]

I love hurricanes.  They are a lot of fun and bring clean air.  The rain will also be nice for southern California. 

[DoomsDave]

I remember Hurricane Nora back in 1997. Warm, muggy weather suddenly succeeded by stormy muggy weather, though not enough rain to make much of a difference. Plus very very high humidity for a couple of days.

As noted, the ocean here is too cool to sustain a tropical storm for long, though some say that might change, especially for all of our friends in Sandy Ego.

 

[peachy]

Spare a thought for those poor Real Housewives of Orange County.....will their weaves survive a hurricane ?  Oh the humanity.

[surfermatt]

Already getting decent rain in La Jolla San Diego since mid day yesterday. Should be interesting. 
 

if you are a weather buff wavecast.Com also has interesting short written analysis 3x weekly. 

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, peachy said:

Spare a thought for those poor Real Housewives of Orange County.....will their weaves survive a hurricane ?  Oh the humanity.

Hopefully not.. Maybe a breeze will blow them all into the sea.  Life will be better when they -and the Kardash-a-clan vanish without a trace..

[Silas_Sancona]

28 minutes ago, surfermatt said:

Already getting decent rain in La Jolla San Diego since mid day yesterday. Should be interesting. 
 

if you are a weather buff wavecast.Com also has interesting short written analysis 3x weekly. 

Assuming you, among several of the San Diego Palm Talk crew are planning on getting out on the water at some point over the next few days?

[Silas_Sancona]

Morning Satellite view as Kay ...what's left of her anyway.. churns northwest w/ the center now somewhere between Ensenada and San Quintin, BCN.. Can see the ample supply of moisture / cold cloud tops being funneled north and northwest toward S. Cal from the Gulf of CA. Center circulation isn't nearly as impressive as yesterday when she crossed the Baja Spur, but we'll take it.

Rain chances for this evening across central / eastern AZ should be sparked by the tap of moisture laid out over Sonora.

COD NexLab True Color imagery:

[chinandega81]

I have seen a lot of flooding and ponding in Mexicali from this and the arroyos in the Imperial Valley are flowing as they seldomly do. A lot of water can come crashing down the east side of the mountains and cause major flooding in Imperial County even though the low elevations receive a relatively "light" 2-3 inches...which btw is their annual precip! It will be interesting to monitor and see how the situation evolves, although it appears the heaviest rain is over for now. Perhaps over the coming days, more scattered t-storms will form accross the SW lower desert.

[Silas_Sancona]

25 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

I have seen a lot of flooding and ponding in Mexicali from this and the arroyos in the Imperial Valley are flowing as they seldomly do. A lot of water can come crashing down the east side of the mountains and cause major flooding in Imperial County even though the low elevations receive a relatively "light" 2-3 inches...which btw is their annual precip! It will be interesting to monitor and see how the situation evolves, although it appears the heaviest rain is over for now. Perhaps over the coming days, more scattered t-storms will form accross the SW lower desert.

We're starting to see some pop up stuff here as moisture along one of the outer bands flares up.. Not expecting anything close to what San Diego County could see though.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, chinandega81 said:

I have seen a lot of flooding and ponding in Mexicali from this and the arroyos in the Imperial Valley are flowing as they seldomly do. A lot of water can come crashing down the east side of the mountains and cause major flooding in Imperial County even though the low elevations receive a relatively "light" 2-3 inches...which btw is their annual precip! It will be interesting to monitor and see how the situation evolves, although it appears the heaviest rain is over for now. Perhaps over the coming days, more scattered t-storms will form accross the SW lower desert.

A video from Salton City:

https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1568352947343618048?cxt=HHwWgMDTzcas9MMrAAAA

 

[surfermatt]

20 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Assuming you, among several of the San Diego Palm Talk crew are planning on getting out on the water at some point over the next few days?

Yesterday was pretty good, ocean temps dropped significantly. Mostly southern groundswell dominant. Looks like the buoys spiked last night (Point Loma) around 9-10pm with large wind swell (11ft at 8s) but a super steep angle around 160. We will see if today has much left and If the wind cooperates. Lots of run off also. 
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46232
the far right up top also shows water temps. Looks like they dropped 5 degrees in the last 24 hrs… wild 

Edited September 10, 2022 by surfermatt

[Chris Chance]

I didn't get the rain I was hoping for but the cooler Temps are a welcome. We got less than a half inch of rain. I guess the storm saw me spreading fertilizer. 

[JLM]

Its nice that some places got some beneficial rainfall, but there are plenty more places that desperately need it. Take a look at the Great Salt Lake in Utah. Not sure when these lines were last updated but you can see the changes.

[Silas_Sancona]

23 minutes ago, JLM said:

Its nice that some places got some beneficial rainfall, but there are plenty more places that desperately need it. Take a look at the Great Salt Lake in Utah. Not sure when these lines were last updated but you can see the changes.

And even this wouldn't help that situation..  Winter ahead likely won't as well..

[Silas_Sancona]

40 minutes ago, Chris Chance said:

I didn't get the rain I was hoping for but the cooler Temps are a welcome. We got less than a half inch of rain. I guess the storm saw me spreading fertilizer. 

Looks like decent rain chances should stick around for at least today out there. As long as what is left of Kay hangs out nearby offshore, + more sun breaks to spark storms, that could extend storm chances into tomorrow as well before things start to dry out again. Regardless, a minimum of a 1/2 an inch of rain, in September, anywhere in California ...can't beat that.  Would be neat to see how Borrego Springs responds over the next 2-6 weeks.



Bay Area.. up to about Sacramento, Vegas, and St. George could see some activity today as well.

A little surprised to see what we got overnight.. More than i thought we'd get.

https://alert.fcd.maricopa.gov/alert/Google/v3/gmap.html

[Jimbean]

I saw this video on my youtube feed and thought to post it here

 

 

[Tracy]

On 9/11/2022 at 4:28 AM, Jimbean said:

saw this video on my youtube feed and thought to post it here

 

On 9/9/2022 at 3:28 PM, chinandega81 said:

I have seen a lot of flooding and ponding in Mexicali from this and the arroyos in the Imperial Valley are flowing as they seldomly do. A lot of water can come crashing down the east side of the mountains and cause major flooding in Imperial County even though the low elevations receive a relatively "light" 2-3 inches...which btw is their annual precip! It will be interesting to monitor and see how the situation evolves, although it appears the heaviest rain is over for now. Perhaps over the coming days, more scattered t-storms will form accross the SW lower desert.

Kay seems to have been a rainfall dud in the southern most portions of California for anything but the more rural portions of the mountains to the east of San Diego and into Imperial County.  Now that it has completely passed, the 5 day totals from our local National Weather Service office posted the 5 day total rainfall summary by regions and location within a region.  The interesting one to me is that in the Coastal zone, the highest and lowest readings in San Diego are about 12 miles apart as the crow flies. SD International Airport and Tijuana Estuary, with Tijuana Estuary being the countries most southerly location on the West Coast of the mainland:

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY....PRELIMINARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
1234 PM PDT TUESDAY SEP 13 2022

     5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 1234 PM TUESDAY

.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES...

        STATION                 PRECIP(IN)   ELEVATION(FT)

     1. MT LAGUNA                 5.86         6000
     2. MOUNT LAGUNA RAWS         5.71         5760
     3. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN           5.15         5410
     4. RANCHITA RAWS             4.65         4180
     5. PANORAMA POINT            4.57         3887
     6. RAYWOOD FLATS             4.33         7097
     7. JULIAN                    4.09         4230
     8. AGUA CALIENTE             4.08         1222
     9. YUCAIPA RIDGE             4.02         9020
    10. JULIAN RAWS               3.85         4240

-------------------------------------------------------------

.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...

ID      STATION                PRECIP(IN)    ELEVATION(FT)

SAN     SAN DIEGO INTL AIRPORT    0.63           42
FSNC1   FASHION VALLEY            0.53           20
L13     POINT LOMA                0.50          364
NZY     NORTH ISLAND NAS          0.49           23
KEAC1   KEARNY MESA               0.45          455
VST1    VISTA                     0.43          330
UGGC1   SMUGGLERS GULCH           0.39           74
MYF     MONTGOMERY FIELD          0.39          423
OCNC1   OCEANSIDE                 0.38           30
NKX     MIRAMAR                   0.37          477
SOFC1   SAN ONOFRE                0.31          162
PPDC1   CPEN LAKE ONEILL          0.30          109
LSFC1   LAS FLORES RAWS           0.30          100
CRQ     CARLSBAD AIRPORT          0.28          357
SDM     BROWN FIELD               0.28          524
ECMC1   EL CAMINO DEL NORTE       0.24           50
FBZC1   CPEN FALLBROOK RAWS       0.22          876
CVA1    CHULA VISTA               0.22           68
PLMC1   CARLSBAD                  0.20          305
NMLC1   SAN MARCOS LANDFILL       0.19          766
ENCC1   ENCINITAS                 0.17          242
NAC1    NATIONAL CITY             0.17           82
TJEC1   TIJUANA ESTUARY           0.04           20

.SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...

ID      STATION                PRECIP(IN)    ELEVATION(FT)

GOSC1   GOOSE VALLEY RAWS         0.99         1530
OFLC1   LOWER OAT FLATS           0.95         2239
RNM     RAMONA AIRPORT            0.95         1400
RMNC1   RAMONA                    0.90         1420
RAIC1   RAINBOW CAMP              0.87         1553
ANEC1   ALPINE RAWS               0.83         2041
SKLC1   SKYLINE RANCH             0.76          562
OTYC1   OTAY MOUNTAIN RAWS        0.58         3283
RMAC1   MT. WOODSON               0.57         1720
RINC1   RINCON SPRINGS            0.56          970
STEC1   SANTEE                    0.52          300
OUSC1   COUSER CANYON             0.49          285
LMSC1   LA MESA                   0.42          530
VLCC1   VALLEY CENTER RAWS        0.39         1370
BOSC1   BONSALL CRS               0.38          185
MMRC1   MIRAMAR LAKE              0.36          720
OLEC1   COLE GRADE RD             0.36          750
BNAC1   BARONA                    0.35         1280
CTGC1   CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS      0.28          917
FLBC1   FALLBROOK                 0.27          675
VALC1   VALLEY CENTER             0.26         1295
ESOC1   ESCONDIDO                 0.25          640
DULC1   DULZURA SUMMIT            0.24         1512
DRGC1   DEER SPRINGS              0.24         1000
ESTC1   SD COUNTRY ESTATES        0.24         1660
PWYC1   POWAY                     0.17          440
HARC1   HARBISON CANYON           0.15         1240
MIGC1   SAN MIGUEL RAWS           0.15          425
FLYC1   FLINN SPRINGS             0.14          880
WHLC1   LAKE WOHLFORD             0.14         1490
TTRC1   THOUSAND TRAILS           0.13          740
LCKC1   LOS COCHES CREEK          0.11          560
RNBC1   RANCHO BERNARDO           0.10          690
GRHC1   GRANITE HILLS             0.08          533

.SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

ID      STATION                PRECIP(IN)    ELEVATION(FT)

LGMC1   MT LAGUNA                 5.86         6000
MLGC1   MOUNT LAGUNA RAWS         5.71         5760
VCNC1   VOLCAN MOUNTAIN           5.15         5410
RCHC1   RANCHITA RAWS             4.65         4180
JLNC1   JULIAN                    4.09         4230
JULC1   JULIAN RAWS               3.85         4240
RTAC1   RANCHITA                  3.01         4008
CYDC1   LAKE CUYAMACA             2.94         4560
TRRC1   TIERRA DEL SOL            2.33         4000
CMNC1   CAMERON RAWS              2.22         3443
PNV1    INE VALLEY MESONET   3    1.40          700
PIHC1   PINE HILLS RAWS           1.38         3600
PMMC1   PALOMAR CRS               1.33         5387
CMFC1   CAMPO 1N                  1.33         2610
PHIC1   PINE HILLS FS             1.27         3645
ECDC1   ECHO DELL                 1.24         3060
DSCC1   DESCANSO RS               1.24         3650
DENC1   DESCANSO RAWS             1.24         3480
PNVC1   PINE VALLEY               1.21         3730
SYSC1   SANTA YSABEL              1.18         2990
WSGC1   WARNER SPRINGS            1.12         3040
IRCC1   BIRCH HILL                1.11         5645
ETKC1   LA JOLLA ERN TANKS        1.02         3000
PAMC1   PALOMAR MOUNTAIN RAWS     1.02         5530
PRMC1   PALOMAR OBSERVATORY       1.01         5560
OGVC1   OAK GROVE RAWS            0.83         2770
HAWC1   HENSHAW DAM               0.50         2750
MEGC1   MESA GRANDE               0.36         3204
LJOC1   LA JOLLA AMAGO            0.19         2400

.SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...

ID      STATION                PRECIP(IN)    ELEVATION(FT)

AGUC1   AGUA CALIENTE             4.08         1222
SFVC1   SAN FELIPE                2.72         2280
BRPC1   BORREGO PALM CANYON       1.53          790
BGOC1   BORREGO SPRINGS           1.52          500
CCYC1   COYOTE CK                 1.29         1189
OCWC1   OCOTILLO WELLS            1.15          425

[Chris Chance]

On 9/10/2022 at 11:21 AM, Silas_Sancona said:

Looks like decent rain chances should stick around for at least today out there. As long as what is left of Kay hangs out nearby offshore, + more sun breaks to spark storms, that could extend storm chances into tomorrow as well before things start to dry out again. Regardless, a minimum of a 1/2 an inch of rain, in September, anywhere in California ...can't beat that.  Would be neat to see how Borrego Springs responds over the next 2-6 weeks.



Bay Area.. up to about Sacramento, Vegas, and St. George could see some activity today as well.

A little surprised to see what we got overnight.. More than i thought we'd get.

https://alert.fcd.maricopa.gov/alert/Google/v3/gmap.html

In the end after getting slammed by some heavy rain and gnarly lighting we got a total closer to one inch. Sorry for the late reply.