Florida Winter 2022-2023

[JLM]

Well, a cold front is expected to dip down through here over the next couple of days, with it comes lower humidity and low overnight temps. Even high temperatures will take a slight ding with highs only in the mid 80's in spots early next week. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60's in spots across northern Florida for a couple nights. It will be our first real taste of "fall". Im almost glad, but i know that this is a sign that ill need to break out the sheets and lights in a few months. Unfortunately, this front will not bring anything to central or south Florida besides some rain, which some of yall might not complain about. Anyways, just figured we could jumpstart the winter season talks considering the hurricane season is imploding on itself right now *knocks on wood*

[chinandega81]

You all have been getting all the rain this summer...well most of FL except the SE coast. I pray this front can veer our winds to the SW so it steers the storms our way.

A lot of warm, untocuhed water in the Ocean and Gulf. They call it a maritime heat wave. I think that will supercharge winter storms, probably sending fronts well down south. I think we will have a lot of ups and downs with very warm vs typically cool temps.

I don't even think anything will form in the WCARB or GOM in October, there seems to be a lot of subsidence and unfavorable conditions. Not sure why it is so rainy over land (Africa, FL, Central America) and so dry over the ocean, tropical waves just collapse upon exiting Africa.

[kinzyjr]

On 9/10/2022 at 8:25 PM, JLM said:

Well, a cold front is expected to dip down through here over the next couple of days, with it comes lower humidity and low overnight temps. Even high temperatures will take a slight ding with highs only in the mid 80's in spots early next week. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60's in spots across northern Florida for a couple nights. It will be our first real taste of "fall". Im almost glad, but i know that this is a sign that ill need to break out the sheets and lights in a few months. Unfortunately, this front will not bring anything to central or south Florida besides some rain, which some of yall might not complain about. Anyways, just figured we could jumpstart the winter season talks considering the hurricane season is imploding on itself right now *knocks on wood*

Hope the summer "cold front" in not the official harbinger of doom for this winter.  At least let our delusions last until Thanksgiving 🙈🙉🙊

[JLM]

53 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Hope the summer "cold front" in not the official harbinger of doom for this winter.  At least let our delusions last until Thanksgiving 🙈🙉🙊

I now have 2 nights in the low 60's in the forecast (tomorrow night 62F, Wednesday night 63F), although rain chances come back by Friday along with the humidity. Like you said, hopefully this doesnt spell doom but if it does, we will be prepared.

[JLM]

12 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

You all have been getting all the rain this summer...well most of FL except the SE coast. I pray this front can veer our winds to the SW so it steers the storms our way.

A lot of warm, untocuhed water in the Ocean and Gulf. They call it a maritime heat wave. I think that will supercharge winter storms, probably sending fronts well down south. I think we will have a lot of ups and downs with very warm vs typically cool temps.

I don't even think anything will form in the WCARB or GOM in October, there seems to be a lot of subsidence and unfavorable conditions. Not sure why it is so rainy over land (Africa, FL, Central America) and so dry over the ocean, tropical waves just collapse upon exiting Africa.

Keep watch on the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread, im about to make a post there. Things might get interesting this week, but if 2022 has anything to say about it then maybe not. We shall see.

[SeanK]

ATL awoke to 57° (14C) and 59° (15C) past two mornings dry air high of 80°F.

[JLM]

6 minutes ago, SeanK said:

ATL awoke to 57° (14C) and 59° (15C) past two mornings dry air high of 80°F.

Man do i wish the high temps would have been affected here. Highs got to 89F today despite being 60F this morning. These cooler temps feel great, but we have a mini heatwave coming up next week with highs approaching the low 90's.

[kinzyjr]

20 minutes ago, JLM said:

Man do i wish the high temps would have been affected here. Highs got to 89F today despite being 60F this morning. These cooler temps feel great, but we have a mini heatwave coming up next week with highs approaching the low 90's.

The forecast has lower temperatures, but the airport hit 89F today while I recorded 92.9F in the yard today.  It has been cooler overall at night in spite of the absolute minimum being about the same, but that is mostly because of overnight rainfall.  The plants really appreciate the long soaking rain vs. the typical deluge/evaporate cycle.

[bubba]

This current tiny respite may not last long but it is certainly appreciated and gives hope that we may be moving towards dry season and less oppressive heat and humidity.

[SeanK]

We hit som 90°+ for a few days but going back to highs below 85° the next week. Most forecasted below 80° for highs. Window weather.

[PalmatierMeg]

I got to get through hurricane season first.

[JLM]

Lows in the mid to upper 50's for the next several nights thanks to Ian. Very bad situation in the southwest portion of the state.

[JLM]

NWS is forecast 45F on Tuesday night with a high of 70F on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday night could be cooler. The GFS model is showing temperatures getting down into the upper 30's. If this ends up happening, ill have to put a sheet over the Foxtail and Bottle.

[kinzyjr]

10 minutes ago, JLM said:

NWS is forecast 45F on Tuesday night with a high of 70F on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday night could be cooler. The GFS model is showing temperatures getting down into the upper 30's. If this ends up happening, ill have to put a sheet over the Foxtail and Bottle.

A bit early for all of this.

Looks like we'll potentially sit in the 50s for a low overnight.

[JLM]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

A bit early for all of this.

Looks like we'll potentially sit in the 50s for a low overnight.

Definitely early. I dont think we saw these temps until November last year.

[JLM]

Alright, what gives...

[JLM]

The GFS forecast is more in line with the NWS forecast for Tuesday night, showing upper 30's all across northwest FL. Upper 50's stretches all the way down near Lakeland, low to mid 60's for most of the rest of the state with the exception of the Miami/Ft Lauderdale areas that pretty much stays in the 70's.
For Wednesday night the GFS is advertising upper 30's being a little more isolated across my area of the state, with temps in the 40's across the rest of the northern portion of the state. Temps in the 50's are in the GFS forecast for the west side of the peninsula all the way down to Lake Okeechobee and near Naples. 60's prevail elsewhere up the east coast to near Orlando with the Miami area remaining in the 70's.

The Euro is a bit warmer Tuesday night for the north part of the state, showing 40's pretty much across the entire I-10 corridor. 50's dip down near Lakeland. Otherwise the rest of the state is in the 60's except for the everglades and the Miami/Ft Lauderdale area.
For Wednesday night it shows pretty much the same thing for north FL. However, 50's are shown to reach as far south as Naples with 60's along the immediate coastal areas up the east coast. Even the Miami area gets in on some upper 60's that night, but the immediate coastal areas in this part of the state is still shown to be in the 70's.

The CMC (Canadian) model actually has the cold front coming in a day later than the other models. I dont usually trust this model with temperature forecast and heres why: its almost always absurdly cold. That statement stands this time as well, showing lows on Wednesday night dipping down below freezing in some spots in the panhandle (near the FL/AL border). It also shows mid 30's near Gainesville. It is showing 40's for NE FL, and these 40's go all the way down near Tampa. It shows 50's for the rest of the state except SE FL which is in the low 60's (yes, even the Miami area).
For Thursday night it shows temps in the upper 40's for NW FL, with 30's across the eastern panhandle into NE FL. 40's dip down a little bit south of Tampa. It shows 50's for the rest of the state except for the Miami area which is in the 60's.

If you blended all these solutions together, you would get upper 30's across NW FL with low 40's near the Jacksonville area. Upper 40's to low 50's across the coastal areas of NE FL. Temps in the 50's would stretch down towards Lakeland. 60's for most of the rest of the state like areas around Orlando and further south towards Naples and the Everglades. The Miami/Ft Lauderdale area would remain in the 70's. Basically a rinse and repeat for the next night just a touch warmer in north FL with 50's expanding a little further south.

[kinzyjr]

Looking like low-to-mid 50s here in the forecast.  Guess this will give us an early preview as to how well the UHI here holds up right before our meeting.

[JLM]

Tuesday and Wednesday nights could break records. Im currently expecting 37F Tuesday night and 36F Wednesday night. If the wind is calmer than expected on Tuesday night it could easily drop way lower. Some spots across the southeast are looking at the earliest freeze on record.

[kinzyjr]

11 minutes ago, JLM said:

Tuesday and Wednesday nights could break records. Im currently expecting 37F Tuesday night and 36F Wednesday night. If the wind is calmer than expected on Tuesday night it could easily drop way lower. Some spots across the southeast are looking at the earliest freeze on record.

Pretty interesting that this is happening already.  Currently looks like it will stay above 50F here.  Lakeland's earliest dip below 32F on record is November 24th back in 1970.  This was followed up by a dip down to 28F on the 25th.  Some records are better left unbroken.

[Jimbean]

The forecast as of now has me staying above 60F on weather underground

[JLM]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Some records are better left unbroken.

This ^^^^

Especially when places are going below freezing before they did in 1989! We definitely do not need that. Funny enough, 1989 was a La Nina/Cool Neutral year. Not saying that 1989 is an analog year for this winter, but just like any winter there is a threat for it to get pretty cold in FL.

[JLM]

.......

[kinzyjr]

Batten down the hatches.  With it being mostly clear the second night, I'd expect frost.

Looks like the forecast is for the low 50s here.

Interested to watch what happens in Yeehaw Junction this winter.  The lows in the Lakeland and Orlando areas were consistently in the low 70s across the Wundermap at 7:15AM, but this station was pegged at 65.8F: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLVEROB517

[JLM]

4 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Batten down the hatches.  With it being mostly clear the second night, I'd expect frost.

Yeah, wind is forecast to be sustained at 10 mph gusting to 25 mph Tuesday night. If the wind is any weaker than that, will probably dip below 32F. The second night looks to be pretty calm, so like you said, ill probably get frost. 

How should i go about protecting a banana? Its in the backyard, its a super dwarf cavendish. I know ill probably need to add heat, but this is a first for me.

I already plan to protect the foxtail and bottle with heat. Might protect the Mule through every freeze this year just because its so tiny.

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, JLM said:

How should i go about protecting a banana? Its in the backyard, its a super dwarf cavendish. I know ill probably need to add heat, but this is a first for me.

The first night your enemy is the cold wind, the second night your enemy is the frost.  If you have a large trash can that you can put over the bananas, that will work pretty well.  Just make sure to find some way to hold it down the first night when the wind is blowing.  Putting concrete blocks on the handles is usually enough.  If you don't have a large garbage can, you can slap together a temporary enclosure with a few stakes and some frost cloth or landscape fabric.  Shy away from plastic since it will damage leaves that come into contact with it.

[JLM]

Freeze Warning in effect tonight...

[JLM]

Foxtail and bottle got added heat, the banana didnt end up getting heat, not enough extension cords  

[Xenon]

6 minutes ago, JLM said:

Foxtail and bottle got added heat, the banana didnt end up getting heat, not enough extension cords  

how tall is the banana? There's more than enough ground heat to keep it toasty if you can tarp/cover and seal at ground level 

[kinzyjr]

10 minutes ago, JLM said:

Foxtail and bottle got added heat, the banana didnt end up getting heat, not enough extension cords  

Keep the wind off of the banana tonight and you're fine.  Tomorrow, overhead cover will win you the day.

[Jimbean]

Past midnight here and still 72F with a 70F dew point.  The forecast says 59F tomorrow morning.  I'm looking forward to change in weather.  We'll see what happens. 

[Matthew92]

37 deg 2-3 hours earlier. Still 43 now. 🥶 Ughh.... No frost though. Maybe tonight. Supposed to be even colder 🙁 

Times like this make me want to move somewhere tropical or close to it.

[Estlander]

Can’t believe we have to deal with this in mid-October already, but here we are.  45 deg. low for me this morning. 

[kinzyjr]

Lakeland Linder (KLAL) bottomed off at 52F around 7am this morning:

The lowest I recorded here was 53F and the highest I recorded was 54F.  Typical compressed temperature range for windy, early chill.

For comparison, the here are some of the WeatherUnderground Stations around the area and their records :

• Holly Ridge (NW Lakeland) - 49.8F
• Hawk's Ridge (NW Lakeland - Usually the coldest area): 51.4F
• WC4PEM-8 (Socrum - unusually mild area in far north Lakeland): 52.8F
• Polk City (near Florida Polytechnic Univ - NE Lakeland): 50.4
• Lakeland Harbor (north of Lake Gibson): 51.4F
• Lakeshore (near LRMC and Lake Parker): 51.3F
• South Lake Morton (near the start of our tour Saturday): 52.2F
• Dixieland Historic District: 51.6F
• Lake Hollingsworth (On a steep hill near a lake): 53.2F
• Turtle Rock (Near the Bottle Palm recently posted in RPoTB) : 52.8F
• Sun Shower (Just up the hill) : 53.8F
• Polk EOC (Just off the bend in the Polk Pkwy): 52.3F

[The7thLegend]

Jacksonville broke the all time low this morning that was set in 1989 (43), got to 42 this morning.  Record lows probable for most of north Florida tonight.

[Matthew92]

 

 

[Matthew92]

 

 

[JLM]

Hit a low of around 37F according to the station in Milton, FL. My sensor had some contamination from the house (it showed 42F, which is several degrees higher than surrounding stations).

Tonight i am forecast to hit 34F with frost. Luckily things warm up next week with maybe some rain back in the forecast.

[kinzyjr]

The NWS records for the Lakeland stations have the following lows for last night (10/18):

• USC00084802 10/18/2009 46F
• USW00012883 10/18/1977 50F

Since NWS had 52F, no record low fortunately.

Lakeland may set a record low tonight. 

• USC00084802 10/19/2009 45F
• USW00012883 10/19/1955 52F

The second station numbers are what I see on Weather.com.  With a forecast calling for 45F (NWS) or 50F (Weather.com), there is a good shot that a record will be set.  KLAL is currently reporting 55F at per the NWS.  Currently, it is 59.4F in my back yard.  There are parts of the Lakeland area already reporting 50F or below, while the city center and the higher elevations are holding the temperature up in the high 50s.  Please disregard the 60F reading near the Polk Parkway.  That weather station is at a height of ~30ft which will throw things way off on a radiational cooling night.

Orlando Executive Airport (KORL) dropped to 52F last night, but the old record was 49F, set in both 2009 and 1943.  The record low for tonight is 47F in 1927, but that location is only forecast to drop to 50F.  KORL is currently reporting 59F.  Here is a snapshot of the Wundermap from the area.

Orlando International Airport (KMCO) had 53F this morning, with the record low being 45F.  The record low for tonight is 47F, but that location is predicted to hit 51F.  KMCO is currently reporting 59F.  The temperatures in this area are more consistent than near downtown Orlando in the above snapshot.

[Jimbean]

40's in central Florida this early morning.