Florida Winter 2022-2023

[JLM]

Some spots already flirting with the freezing mark.

[JLM]

No frost, just temperatures near 30F. The wind saved us from frost here.

[JLM]

North FL temperatures as of 6:45 AM CST







Heres the Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Panama City, and Pensacola areas:

[Estlander]

Recorded 40F in my yard

[kinzyjr]

Coldest measure in my yard was 49.8F, mildest was 53F.  The coldest was equivalent to the airport (KLAL) at 50F.  One thing that was interesting about last night was watching the temperature stand still under clear skies most of the night. 

The airport had the same temperature for a little over 5 hours.

[Can't think of username]

I dunno if I mentioned this already, but I'm most interested in Tallahassee FSU (want to see how much warmer it is than the cold hole Tallahassee airport this winter) and Archbold Biological Station (want to see if radiational cooling gives it wacky lows much colder than normally colder places much further north). So far, Tallahassee FSU hasn't had even ground frost temperature yet, even during that October cold snap, and Archbold Biological Station hasn't got to 10 Celsius or below despite the cold snap, its normal minima being below that, and its great propensity for radiational cooling.

 

[Jimbean]

27 minutes ago, Can't think of username said:

I dunno if I mentioned this already, but I'm most interested in Tallahassee FSU (want to see how much warmer it is than the cold hole Tallahassee airport this winter) and Archbold Biological Station (want to see if radiational cooling gives it wacky lows much colder than normally colder places much further north). So far, Tallahassee FSU hasn't had even ground frost temperature yet, even during that October cold snap, and Archbold Biological Station hasn't got to 10 Celsius or below despite the cold snap, its normal minima being below that, and its great propensity for radiational cooling.

 

That is going to depend a lot on the local topography and the presence of any heat island effect.  Your looking for higher elevation compared to the surrounding area. 

[Can't think of username]

2 hours ago, Jimbean said:

That is going to depend a lot on the local topography and the presence of any heat island effect.  Your looking for higher elevation compared to the surrounding area. 

Yes, the heat island has an effect on Tallahassee. The 2021 US urban heat island survey puts the city as +3.2 Celsius warmer than outlying areas like the airport, although I am not at all familiar with Tallahassee's topography of downtown vs airport so it might be a good idea to find out some about it.

What are you referring to with the elevation? Is it Archbold Biological Station, I know it's elevated on the Lake Wales Ridge?

Thanks for the pointers.

[JLM]

25 minutes ago, Can't think of username said:

Yes, the heat island has an effect on Tallahassee. The 2021 US urban heat island survey puts the city as +3.2 Celsius warmer than outlying areas like the airport, although I am not at all familiar with Tallahassee's topography of downtown vs airport so it might be a good idea to find out some about it.

What are you referring to with the elevation? Is it Archbold Biological Station, I know it's elevated on the Lake Wales Ridge?

Thanks for the pointers.

Tallahassee is not on the Lake Wales Ridge. 

Tallahassee is indirectly affected by the Appalachian mountain chain. 

[Can't think of username]

3 minutes ago, JLM said:

Tallahassee is not on the Lake Wales Ridge. 

Tallahassee is indirectly affected by the Appalachian mountain chain. 

The Appalachians having an effect. Yeah I can see that being the case.
It's been mentioned for Atlantic coast cities in Georgia and the Carolinas on City Data weather. Don't see why it couldn't apply here since Tallahassee is in range.

And wow, downtown Tallahassee (incl. FSU) is over twice the elevation of the airport by the looks of it! I wonder how much warmer than +3.2 Celsius it would be if it was the same elevation.

[JLM]

2 minutes ago, Can't think of username said:

The Appalachians having an effect. Yeah I can see that being the case.
It's been mentioned for Atlantic coast cities in Georgia and the Carolinas on City Data weather. Don't see why it couldn't apply here since Tallahassee is in range.

And wow, downtown Tallahassee (incl. FSU) is over twice the elevation of the airport by the looks of it! I wonder how much warmer than +3.2 Celsius it would be if it was the same elevation.

There are definitely some low and high spots on campus and at the airport. The highest spot on campus is around 195 ft, lowest spot is around 70 ft.

At the airport, the highest is near 100 ft that i could find, and the lower spots are near 30 ft.

[Can't think of username]

21 minutes ago, JLM said:

There are definitely some low and high spots on campus and at the airport. The highest spot on campus is around 195 ft, lowest spot is around 70 ft.

At the airport, the highest is near 100 ft that i could find, and the lower spots are near 30 ft.

On the other hand, I wonder if the lower elevation of the Tallahassee airport is making it cooler. I know that area gets mostly dry, radiational freezes (which is why snow is so rare compared to places like Austin with similar winter averages), so a slightly elevated city (which also has the most heat island effect during radiational cooling) is going to be even warmer relative to an outlying airport at a lower elevation where cool air pools than to one of the same elevation.

[kinzyjr]

3 hours ago, Can't think of username said:

On the other hand, I wonder if the lower elevation of the Tallahassee airport is making it cooler. I know that area gets mostly dry, radiational freezes (which is why snow is so rare compared to places like Austin with similar winter averages), so a slightly elevated city (which also has the most heat island effect during radiational cooling) is going to be even warmer relative to an outlying airport at a lower elevation where cool air pools than to one of the same elevation.

In Florida, being located higher in elevation is helpful, especially if the location is not at the crest of a hill and fully exposed.  With the right orientation, it tends to drop the wind speed and allow the coldest air to drain to the lowest point.  In my area, this is usually a lake.  Looking at Tallahassee in particular:

11/18/2022 6:45 AM - Screenshot Credit to @JLM

It looks like the middle of town had roughly a 1F advantage over the airport in terms of minimum temperature on 11/18/2022 as the readings trend toward 37F there vs. 36F at roughly the same time at the airport. 

The numbers at the airport can temporarily be verified here: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTLH.html

The lowest temperature this time was 34F, recorded the following evening - probably around 10PM

You would have to look at some of the stations on WeatherUnderground or AmbientWeather.net to verify if there was an advantage to the UHI and elevation during this time frame.

[JLM]

My basjoo bananas got scorched.

[Can't think of username]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

In Florida, being located higher in elevation is helpful, especially if the location is not at the crest of a hill and fully exposed.  With the right orientation, it tends to drop the wind speed and allow the coldest air to drain to the lowest point.  In my area, this is usually a lake.  Looking at Tallahassee in particular:

11/18/2022 6:45 AM - Screenshot Credit to @JLM

It looks like the middle of town had roughly a 1F advantage over the airport in terms of minimum temperature on 11/18/2022 as the readings trend toward 37F there vs. 36F at roughly the same time at the airport. 

The numbers at the airport can temporarily be verified here: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTLH.html

The lowest temperature this time was 34F, recorded the following evening - probably around 10PM

You would have to look at some of the stations on WeatherUnderground or AmbientWeather.net to verify if there was an advantage to the UHI and elevation during this time frame.

I have been looking at the FSU Tallahassee wunderground station, yes. It looks like the coldest FSU got yesterday was 2.5 Celsius, and that freeze seems to have been pretty advective (aka not as much cold air drainage as there would have been during a radiational freeze), so that's +1.4 Celsius to the airport.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLTALLA77/table/2022-11-18/2022-11-18/monthly

On the other hand it looks like you're spot on about the higher elevation being a benefit for cold air drainage when a freeze is radiational. During the radiational October 20 cold snap that gave the airport a -0.6 Celsius freeze, FSU's 5.4 Celsius minimum was a few degrees too warm to even get ground frost! So that's +6 Celsius to the airport.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLTALLA77/table/2022-10-18/2022-10-18/monthly

edit: Looks like radiational freeze differences can be even more than +6 Celsius. During the November 24 radiational freeze last year, FSU only got to 5.1 Celsius to the airport's -2.8 Celsius, so that's +7.9 Celsius.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLTALLA77/table/2021-11-18/2021-11-18/monthly

Edited November 20, 2022 by Can't think of username

[kinzyjr]

For anyone who wants the reports from all of the Florida airports for the last 3 days, please download the attached zip file and extract it to a folder.  It contains an HTML file for each of the airports for your review.

20221117-20221119_FL_airports.zip

[Can't think of username]

The main things that impress me about Tallahassee FSU compared to the airport is how regular the very big cool season low temperature differences are between it and the airport, frequently exceeding the average +3.2 Celsius Tallahassee urban heat island.  Since the station started recording in June 2014:

-Most months beside January haven't recorded a freeze. The only November to get a freeze was 2014, the only Decembers to get a freeze were 2017+2020, the only February to get a freeze was 2015, and no Marches have recorded a freeze, compared to the airport getting freezes all Decembers all Novembers except 2015+2017+2019+2020, all Februaries except 2018+2019, and all Marches except 2015+2016+2020.

-The freezes, if they happen, are really not all that cold either.  Only winter 2014-15+2017-18 were 9a, while 2016-17+2020-21+2021-22 were 9b and 2015-16+2018-19+2019-20 were 10a (even freezeless 10a for 2018-19), compared to the airport having all seasons except 2015-16+2019-20 (9b) and 2021-22 (8b) as 9a. 

-Besides what happened just this past October, it has not recorded an April or October ground frost temperature, compared to the airport getting some within that time period (eg: October 2017 or April 2021).

All this seems right in league with notably mild Gulf Coast places like New Orleans, Houston, and Destin, even outdoing them in some aspects. I guess that's the benefit of being a slightly elevated heat island with good cold air drainage in a place that gets mostly radiational freezes!

Edited November 20, 2022 by Can't think of username

[kinzyjr]

50 minutes ago, Can't think of username said:

The main things that impress me about Tallahassee FSU compared to the airport is how regular the very big cool season low temperature differences are between it and the airport, frequently exceeding the average +3.2 Celsius Tallahassee urban heat island.  Since the station started recording in June 2014:

-Most months beside January haven't recorded a freeze. The only November to get a freeze was 2014, the only Decembers to get a freeze were 2017+2020, the only February to get a freeze was 2015, and no Marches have recorded a freeze, compared to the airport getting freezes all Decembers all Novembers except 2015+2017+2019+2020, all Februaries except 2018+2019, and all Marches except 2015+2016+2020.

-The freezes, if they happen, are really not all that cold either.  Only winter 2014-15+2017-18 were 9a, while 2016-17+2020-21+2021-22 were 9b and 2015-16+2018-19+2019-20 were 10a (even freezeless 10a for 2018-19), compared to the airport having all seasons except 2015-16+2019-20 (9b) and 2021-22 (8b) as 9a. 

-Besides what happened just this past October, it has not recorded an April or October ground frost temperature, compared to the airport getting some within that time period (eg: October 2017 or April 2021).

All this seems right in league with notably mild Gulf Coast places like New Orleans, Houston, and Destin, even outdoing them in some aspects. I guess that's the benefit of being a slightly elevated heat island with good cold air drainage in a place that gets mostly radiational freezes!

The readings at this station cannot be considered in a direct comparison with airport weather stations due to its placement.  This weather station is mounted at on the top floor of a 7-story parking garage.  There is no doubt from my point of view that the middle of town would have a more protected microclimate due to all of the concrete and asphalt surfaces, but the difference would have to be quantified with a different station.

This April 2016 view shows the Davis Vantage Pro 2 most clearly:

In the May 2022 view, it looks like they may have shortened the pole a bit, but the readings are still going to be high due to the concrete surface and elevation well above 6 feet.

[Can't think of username]

32 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

The readings at this station cannot be considered in a direct comparison with airport weather stations due to its placement.  This weather station is mounted at on the top floor of a 7-story parking garage.  There is no doubt from my point of view that the middle of town would have a more protected microclimate due to all of the concrete and asphalt surfaces, but the difference would have to be quantified with a different station.

This April 2016 view shows the Davis Vantage Pro 2 most clearly:

In the May 2022 view, it looks like they may have shortened the pole a bit, but the readings are still going to be high due to the concrete surface and elevation well above 6 feet.

Ooh goody! Better find one in the middle of town with the all surface protection to verify what you described, it would be an absolutely fascinating microclimate.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Can't think of username

[Eric in Orlando]

Amazing temperature range in Florida this morning at 8:00 a.m.

[ChristianStAug]

The alarm bells are starting to ring for a significant -NAO event that will begin to turn things much cooler starting about December 10-14th and beyond. Mets and enthusiasts have dropped "2010" as an analog year. That is nothing that any of us palm lovers in Florida want to hear! However, I am hopeful knowing there can be huge dumps of cold air into the East for the east coast snow weenies to enjoy, without sending harmful freezes to Florida. Every trough is a little different! We will keep rooting for a -PNA to keep our little ridge boosted.  There is also an unfortunate precedent for cold weather in winters proceeding major Hurricane impacts in Florida.

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by ChristianStAug

[JLM]

Ive seen some signs that the PNA may go positive going into mid-late December. If this were to happen, go ahead and start wrapping your palms!

[ChristianStAug]

 

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, ChristianStAug said:

 

I remember that December.  A low of 25F at the airport and 26F here at the ranch... brrrr.... 

Looks like it was roughly the same at the St. Augustine Lighthouse:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1h2lbBtHdxlGNuyDTVo5A6xdrn4McSCQ&ll=29.882650354167225%2C-81.28130089287652&z=15

Note: You might have to uncheck the box for Jan_2022 and check the box for Dec_2010 if you look at the map.

[kinzyjr]

On 11/16/2022 at 8:42 PM, kinzyjr said:

For this winter, an airport reading we can probably throw out. 

Plant City (KPCM) has been reporting 66F for over a half hour and all of the reporting stations from AmbientWeather.net and Wunderground around it have been at 63F max for the same amount of time.

OK, something is wrong here too:

NWS:

AmbientWeather.net

Wunderground:

[bubba]

At this time, a cool breeze would be greatly appreciated in South Florida! 

[ChristianStAug]

On 11/28/2022 at 9:55 PM, kinzyjr said:

I remember that December.  A low of 25F at the airport and 26F here at the ranch... brrrr.... 

Looks like it was roughly the same at the St. Augustine Lighthouse:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1h2lbBtHdxlGNuyDTVo5A6xdrn4McSCQ&ll=29.882650354167225%2C-81.28130089287652&z=15

Note: You might have to uncheck the box for Jan_2022 and check the box for Dec_2010 if you look at the map.

One interesting thing looking at those freezes was the consistency across large swaths of the state. I imagine on the coldest nights it must have been quite windy. The Atlantic didn't seem to provide much protection. 

[kinzyjr]

2 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

One interesting thing looking at those freezes was the consistency across large swaths of the state. I imagine on the coldest nights it must have been quite windy. The Atlantic didn't seem to provide much protection. 

Most of the absolute worst ones have a very advective nature.  At that point, latitude has a greater effect than the typical factors that mitigate radiational cooling like elevation, proximity to large bodies of water, canopy and UHI.  The 1980s and 1890s freezes are a good example.

Eric had a good summary of 1989 vs. 2010: "In 2010, tender stuff died.  In 1989, hardy stuff died."

[ChristianStAug]

Do you know how to access the data for the St. Augustine lighthouse temperatures? I live a couple blocks away and I was not aware of a station there. I suppose unless these were manual readings. That Google maps link is great and also scary. 

Has anyone been checking out the run to run volatility  around mid month? The 18z gfs will take the freeze line down into the peninsula one night and the 00z will have the same moment in time just downright balmy. It’s super early to begin to look at temps (and a sad thing to dread a cold event when you have a minimum of 10 gorgeous days ahead—what a unique anxiety) but I am watching the trends. 

[kinzyjr]

20 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

Do you know how to access the data for the St. Augustine lighthouse temperatures? I live a couple blocks away and I was not aware of a station there. I suppose unless these were manual readings. That Google maps link is great and also scary. 

Has anyone been checking out the run to run volatility  around mid month? The 18z gfs will take the freeze line down into the peninsula one night and the 00z will have the same moment in time just downright balmy. It’s super early to begin to look at temps (and a sad thing to dread a cold event when you have a minimum of 10 gorgeous days ahead—what a unique anxiety) but I am watching the trends. 

Give the attached Excel file a look.  It's similar to the one I generated for @Lou-StAugFL.  This has the stations list, daily records, and annual lows for each of the three NOAA stations previously active in St. Augustine.  There is also a sheet with combined annual lows in order of precedence by their proximity to your location.

20221201_StAugustine.xlsx

[chinandega81]

I have been seeing a lot of chatter online about a blocking ridge setting up over Greenland in a few weeks, and that pattern stagnating, leading to extreme cold to the eastern US for a prolonged period of time. 

I don't know any details, but does anyone here know how bad this could be for Florida? A "coldest event of the season" type blast? Or more like the coldest air in a decade or more? It seems like it might be pretty prolonged and intense from what people are saying about the anomalies. The worst part is, nothing is hardened off as it's been in the 80s, humid, there have been good rains and no cold air or real fronts in South Florida yet this season.

Any insight about the intensity or duration of this possible event would be appreciated.

[ChristianStAug]

8 minutes ago, chinandega81 said:

I have been seeing a lot of chatter online about a blocking ridge setting up over Greenland in a few weeks, and that pattern stagnating, leading to extreme cold to the eastern US for a prolonged period of time. 

I don't know any details, but does anyone here know how bad this could be for Florida? A "coldest event of the season" type blast? Or more like the coldest air in a decade or more? It seems like it might be pretty prolonged and intense from what people are saying about the anomalies. The worst part is, nothing is hardened off as it's been in the 80s, humid, there have been good rains and no cold air or real fronts in South Florida yet this season.

Any insight about the intensity or duration of this possible event would be appreciated.

The models are really bouncing around. So far, I have not seen "coldest air in a decade" -type cold showing up on any particular run. It seems the coldest air has been delayed (which sometimes can mean denied).  The models seem to be struggling with what happens with the PNA.  On today's GFS it appears to stay negative, which means that a deep trough (which would mean an amplified) pattern has a hard time digging into the SE.  The SE ridge is maintained through the 18th on today's 12z GFS. Just my novice opinion.

[chinandega81]

2 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

The models are really bouncing around. So far, I have not seen "coldest air in a decade" -type cold showing up on any particular run. It seems the coldest air has been delayed (which sometimes can mean denied).  The models seem to be struggling with what happens with the PNA.  On today's GFS it appears to stay negative, which means that a deep trough (which would mean an amplified) pattern has a hard time digging into the SE.  The SE ridge is maintained through the 18th on today's 12z GFS. Just my novice opinion.

My memory seems to indicate we dont usually get overly cold until around Xmas and beyond, through Feb. I assume it is inevitable, but I hope it is at least, highly modified, if and when it makes it this far southeast. Thanks for sharing your insight!

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

I have been seeing a lot of chatter online about a blocking ridge setting up over Greenland in a few weeks, and that pattern stagnating, leading to extreme cold to the eastern US for a prolonged period of time. 

I don't know any details, but does anyone here know how bad this could be for Florida? A "coldest event of the season" type blast? Or more like the coldest air in a decade or more? It seems like it might be pretty prolonged and intense from what people are saying about the anomalies. The worst part is, nothing is hardened off as it's been in the 80s, humid, there have been good rains and no cold air or real fronts in South Florida yet this season.

Any insight about the intensity or duration of this possible event would be appreciated.

I posted some stuff regarding what "might" happen w/ this set up over in the current temp thread..  I'll add it here..

This was from longtime P.V. forecaster / researcher Judah Cohen, posted on his weekly updated ( this time of year ) blog on Wednesday:  Have followed him since 2011 and find his thoughts to be well laid out, even if some of those thoughts don't pan out quite as suggested..

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Would suggest following his Twitter posts, as well as  PV Forecast's twitter posts, even if numerous posts from him are a tad technical, even for the not-so-weather novice, haha..


This was something another, blatantly honest forecaster posted a few days earlier, when everyone and their relatives was "sounding the alarm" on what "might" occur..  This will be a BIG detail many overlook watch as well..



Current PNA outlook:   Following the suggested negative pattern atm ( Hence the chillier Wx here in the west, for now ).. Bigger ???, ..What- will- it- do- next..   Same w/ the NAO.



Deep dive suggested may just be transient ...AKA: not gonna stick around too long.



AO?? ( Arctic Oscillation )  In the tank for a little longer,  ..We'll see what happens there..



*** 3 year old scribble notes included free of charge🤣😁***

[JLM]

I cant sleep right now, so i figured i would just come here to say that the CMC and European models are trying to show another surge of cold air in about 8-9 days from now. These 2 models look pretty similar right now. The GFS is very different from these 2 models. I guess we will see how models change over the coming week.

[ChristianStAug]

On 12/1/2022 at 9:38 PM, kinzyjr said:

Give the attached Excel file a look.  It's similar to the one I generated for @Lou-StAugFL.  This has the stations list, daily records, and annual lows for each of the three NOAA stations previously active in St. Augustine.  There is also a sheet with combined annual lows in order of precedence by their proximity to your location.

20221201_StAugustine.xlsx 1.56 MB · 2 downloads

Thanks so much!

[ChristianStAug]

 

[ahosey01]

On 11/21/2022 at 7:52 AM, Eric in Orlando said:

Amazing temperature range in Florida this morning at 8:00 a.m.

A typical diurnal range for a single spot in the mid-altitude desert where I am!

Florida is so foreign to me.... lol

[ChristianStAug]

Delayed and....denied? 🤞

 

[bubba]

It seems that December 2022 will continue quite warm. The question is what will January 2023 look like. From the southeast Florida perspective, it is much more about some cooler weather, and not so much about losing vegetation.