Florida Winter 2022-2023

[Matthew92]

Major warm spell or not: from what I can see it's way too early to be letting my guard down. I've noticed computer models are latching onto a cold event around Feb 12-13th. At the moment, it looks like freezing temps could be on the table for North FL.

[RedRabbit]

4 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Anna Maria is nice overall, but depending on the benchmark for 10b/11a, that might be ambitious.  At 200 Coconut Ave on the west side of the island, they had a quad-planting of coconuts at the house at the turn in Dec 2007.

After the January 2010 and December 2010 freezes, the best one was heavily damaged and at least one perished.  The other two may have been removed after the January freeze or sometime before.  We wouldn't be able to verify it now.

The most current photo looks pretty good.  Full recovery from any of the events since then.

Yeah, 11a is too generous. I think I concluded later in the thread based on recent events it looks consistent with 10b and not borderline 11a, but perhaps I forgot to document that?

For what it’s worth, I don’t think it actually froze on AMI in 2010 (it didn’t freeze at Albert-Whitted even.)

NW Bradenton is more impressive than it gets credit for too. Everywhere from downtown west looks very solidly 10a or 10b. It’s definitely the warmest larger city in Central Florida.

[D. Morrowii]

These are lows for Melbourne Fl for the last 23 years pulled from the NWS.

This graph shows that Melbourne had temps in the 30s 16 out of those 23 years and 9 of those were 35F or less. So if these are correct there is more than a 65% chance that this area of Central Florida sees temps in the mid to high thirty's in February. Hopefully that AO thing is right and and we are in one of those 35% years. I'm just feeling ready for spring and looking forward to another round of in ground trials!

 

 

 

[JLM]

Models have been trending. The GFS is saying no freezing temperatures anywhere in the state for the next 16 days. The CMC is showing freezing temperatures in the northern portion of the state around the 9-10 day mark. The Euro is saying near freezing temperatures around the 9-10 day mark as well for northwest FL. Note that all models do show at least one or two dips into the 30's for the northern half of the state.

Meanwhile, Spring continues to do its thing across NW FL. Some things are beginning to leaf out, and my Queens have resumed a decent rate of growth. A few elephant ears are coming back from the dead, as well as both of my basjoo bananas. The grass in the backyard has come along so much that ill actually have to mow it at some point over the next week. There is also pollen on the vehicles. To me, this is Spring, even though i know we are still in danger of freezing temperatures.

[Hombre de Palmas]

8 hours ago, JLM said:

Models have been trending. The GFS is saying no freezing temperatures anywhere in the state for the next 16 days. The CMC is showing freezing temperatures in the northern portion of the state around the 9-10 day mark. The Euro is saying near freezing temperatures around the 9-10 day mark as well for northwest FL. Note that all models do show at least one or two dips into the 30's for the northern half of the state.

Meanwhile, Spring continues to do its thing across NW FL. Some things are beginning to leaf out, and my Queens have resumed a decent rate of growth. A few elephant ears are coming back from the dead, as well as both of my basjoo bananas. The grass in the backyard has come along so much that ill actually have to mow it at some point over the next week. There is also pollen on the vehicles. To me, this is Spring, even though i know we are still in danger of freezing temperatures.

https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring

 

Here is an interesting website,  "The Status of Spring".

Around my way, it appears some of my more recalcitrant plants are responding to warmer than normal temps and the increasingly longer days. The long term forecast provides some reason for optimism that this winter is on the way out, but I will stay on guard for a pattern change over the next couple weeks.

That unusual chill over the Christmas holidays did not faze most of my landscape, including the Adonidias which usually are the most sensitive, they continue to put out new spears. Some of the coconuts around here look a little worse for wear, though I think almost all of them will recover.

[JLM]

13 hours ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring

 

Here is an interesting website,  "The Status of Spring".

Around my way, it appears some of my more recalcitrant plants are responding to warmer than normal temps and the increasingly longer days. The long term forecast provides some reason for optimism that this winter is on the way out, but I will stay on guard for a pattern change over the next couple weeks.

That unusual chill over the Christmas holidays did not faze most of my landscape, including the Adonidias which usually are the most sensitive, they continue to put out new spears. Some of the coconuts around here look a little worse for wear, though I think almost all of them will recover.

Been keeping track of this for a while now. I like the maps that show how often you get an early/late start to spring.

[kinzyjr]

One good thing about this winter going into spring is that it hasn't been as dry as in years past.  My location received over an inch of rain yesterday.  With the mild weather overall, that helps a lot to get things moving.  All of my coconuts pushed a 3-6 inches of spear in the last 3 days. 

[Jimbean]

A bit of a weird one this morning

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

A bit of a weird one this morning

A typical day in the neighborhood here - it's pot luck and you never know what you'll get. 

My sensors recorded minimums of 43F in the open yard, 45F in the coconut beds.  The airport recorded a low of 42F thus far at 6:55AM.  You can see some areas fared better than others.  Note the temperatures near the county line at 39F and near downtown at 47F-49F.  There is a reason they grow all the tropical palms there.

[RedRabbit]

I had 43f… Cold for sure, but I’m still feeling good about my call of winter being over.

[Hombre de Palmas]

5 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I had 43f… Cold for sure, but I’m still feeling good about my call of winter being over.

Victory is not always linear.

[Matthew92]

Winter not over here in Northwest FL (sorry I don't know why the image quality is getting lower when I post)

[JLM]

Ended up going a little below forecast and had a full blown freeze. Hit 31F this morning. This brief freeze likely wont faze any of the ongoing blooming in the area. Tonight is expected to be much warmer with a low of 41F. And then next week the southeast ridge sets up and the entire southeast US will see above average temperatures. Northwest FL is expected to get in on some low 80's next week, meanwhile South FL is expecting some spots in the 90's.
My forecast:


While some cold spells can happen during above average temperature periods, the PNA is going negative next week, and it will be quite strong. This will basically cause the SE ridge to go on steroids for the rest of February. Here is the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks from the CPC:





Now in some other news, the Polar Vortex had a major SSW event earlier this week. It will take until March for any impacts to be felt in this area of the US, and thats very dependent on whether the pattern allows for any cold air intrusions and most importantly if it translates to the surface. If that ridge stays in place, you can think of it as a shield. Im not saying that the threat for freezing temperatures is over for the entire state of FL, but the chances have already started declining and decline slowly everyday. We will see what the pattern looks like by the time we get to March but im willing to bet it doesnt change a whole lot. 

[ChristianStAug]

Besides the brutal Christmas period, the limited amount of nights below 40 in my area is remarkable. There was only a light roof frost on one other occasion besides the Christmas event. In recent years where we never dropped below freezing, we have had several nights in the upper 30s. 

The entire Eastern US is on track for one of their warmest winters ever. Unfortunately North Florida and the Panhandle were extremely unlucky with the December front and shallow, hardly-modified arctic air.

I guess what I am trying to say is that we didn't really "pay our dues" by enduring the Christmas freeze and all the damage it caused up here since it occurred in an otherwise very mild winter. The La Niña forecast proved very accurate and at first glance, if you just looked at seasonal data, you would have thought us to have been "very safe" for winter 22/23.

[JLM]

Seeing plenty of red maples leafing out right now in my area. Also saw a sweet gum and a crepe myrtle leafing out earlier today which was surprising, especially the crepe myrtle which can take until April to leaf out in some instances. Expecting to see some movement in the river birches and bradford pears within the next week or two. In fact the massive river birches in the neighbors yard has been releasing its pollen, which you know is occurring when the little catkin things expand. Should see some leaves soon. Oaks will take a while, they are usually the last of the bunch to leaf out.

[Alan_Tampa]

All ya'all talking about winter being over made it snow in California.  🤪

[Sabal_Louisiana]

If only we could take away the coldest 5 days of the year, imagine what we could grow.  Maybe even mangoes.

Its hard to feel sorry for California and Arizona even when they do get cold. How often does it get to freezing in LA or they have a hard freeze in Phoenix...

 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Sabal_Louisiana

[Can't think of username]

Haven't been here in a while, but things are looking pretty darn good for North Florida at this point.

-Tallahassee cold hole airport has not recorded a frost since January 28 (lowest all February has been 1C), and they are not in the range of below normal weather in the March 10-31 cold Euro  forecast models. So it's looking like they have a legitimate shot at a January 28 last frost for this season!😃
Depending on whether the airport record started in 1940 or 1961 (I can't tell) that would either be their third earliest last frost ever and only third January last frost, or earliest last frost PERIOD and first January last frost. Both of which would be very appropriate to make up for the dumb freak October first frost in 2022 that was the second earliest on record.

-Gainesville airport has not either. This would be perfect timing for the 20 year anniversary of the January 28 2003 lucky last frost (they narrowly got by the dumb April 1 2003 backload by 1C).

-Pensacola has likewise stayed above 0C all February so it might also have a chance at the January last frosts it can get at times (eg: 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022).

What's more, I actually found some STUDIES on all the Tallahassee stuff I was talking about, which is super neat😅! They don't agree with the elevation theory and determine that the Tallahassee airport is anomalously cold because of unusually high potential for radiational cooling due to lots of sky exposure, which I had no idea was the case.
https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/PDF/Research/ElsnerFuelbergDealOrrockLehmillerRuscher1996.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/239751448_Tallahassee_Florida_Minimum_Temperature_Anomaly_Description_and_Speculations

Last but not least, some of you may remember the big radiational cooling event around the middle of the month. It led to 2 things:

-Archbold Biological Station dipped all the way down to -9C😱, 4.3C below the usual seasonal low and the 2nd coldest ever! That would be like Miami getting to -2C.
-Biggest Tallahassee difference between the city and cold hole airport I have ever seen, which I suppose radiational cooling strong enough to drop Archbold to -9C would lead to! Normally the difference between the weather.gov/tae station and the downtown stations during radiational cooling is in the 5-7C ballpark, but this is a 9C difference!

Here are also the Euro models I mentioned. I don't like the high anomalies for my list outside of Florida (although the fact that it's less than 2 weeks from spring with much warmer temperatures than January helps my odds), but Florida (including of course Tallahassee) looks pretty darn safe - no 2022 for them!

 

[Can't think of username]

4 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

Its hard to feel sorry for California and Arizona even when they do get cold. How often does it get to freezing in LA or they have a hard freeze in Phoenix...

I agree. I would not feel sorry at all for Los Angeles if it dipped to something like -10C with an ice day and 25cm of snow, in fact I'd be having a lot of fun as it'd be unlikely to be something I could see again if it happened.

Mostly this comes from my dislike of the stereotype that the West Coast of the US is much warmer than the Southeast (coming from the people who think winter is the only season). Not true, the latitude appropriate comparison of coastal California has a pretty cold climate for its latitude compared to the Southeast with the average discrepancy being that the climate is in the 2C colder ballpark (eg: Oxnard and Wilmington).

Edited February 24, 2023 by Can't think of username

[kinzyjr]

I'd be OK if it never went below 40F in Lakeland or in Los Angeles again, let alone have a snow event.

[JLM]

Well yall, CPC has outlook almost the entire lower 48 in some sort of below average temperature probability for mid March. This has happened before, it actually happened last year. Cant remember what day it was, but we had 26F in the forecast here north of Pensacola in March last year! It was insane, but that didnt really stop the trees from blooming at all. Which btw, trees are in full bloom mode right now all over the place.
Here is the CPC outlook for March 11-24:


Luckily this cold period is expected to occur during my spring break, so ill be able to protect anything if needed. Below average temperatures may not necessarily mean a freeze is incoming, but it can be an indicator. Just something to watch for now, until then enjoy the late spring like weather we have been getting!

Edited February 25, 2023 by JLM

[JLM]

Here is my forecast for the next 7 days. This is about as spring like as you can get here in NW FL. Any palms recovering from December will certainly appreciate this. I may fertilize tomorrow, despite saying i was gonna do it on Wednesday. If you ask me, this is a perfect forecast right here.

Some other things that may happen tomorrow: i may do some repotting of some stuff, there are several things that need it for sure. I will also likely be starting my sunflowers tomorrow and some palm seeds in community pots.

[Can't think of username]

1 hour ago, JLM said:

Well yall, CPC has outlook almost the entire lower 48 in some sort of below average temperature probability for mid March. This has happened before, it actually happened last year. Cant remember what day it was, but we had 26F in the forecast here north of Pensacola in March last year! It was insane, but that didnt really stop the trees from blooming at all. Which btw, trees are in full bloom mode right now all over the place.
Here is the CPC outlook for March 11-24:


Luckily this cold period is expected to occur during my spring break, so ill be able to protect anything if needed. Below average temperatures may not necessarily mean a freeze is incoming, but it can be an indicator. Just something to watch for now, until then enjoy the late spring like weather we have been getting!

I remember that horrible, dumb March 12-13 backload from last year remarkably well, what a great thing to see in your first March back from a climatology hiatus. Some places the forecast was overblown for (Tallahassee cold hole airport forecast for -3C but only got to 0C, and Gainesville airport forecast for -1C but only got to 1C, thank heavens they got past that backload as they were literally one of the only saving graces to my March list that year), but others it was rather spot on for due to being extremely advective, which really sucked.
Pensacola was also forecast for something like -1C or -2C but got to something like 2C. That's it for the lucky places in Florida forecast vs actual weather wise.

This forecast is very similar to the Twitter ones I linked to above. Tallahassee airport who needs a January last frost most is also in the equal chances and not far off from the above normal area, and Gainesville airport who would also do well with it is either in or very close to the above normal (and considering it's March 11-24, both of them stand a considerably better chance than colder parts of winter that are well prior to the spring equinox).
I am worried about radiational cooling especially for the Tallahassee airport (seeing as how it is unusually prone to that), but barring that, they have a good shot here.

Edited February 25, 2023 by Can't think of username

[Matthew92]

On 2/21/2023 at 9:03 PM, JLM said:

Seeing plenty of red maples leafing out right now in my area. Also saw a sweet gum and a crepe myrtle leafing out earlier today which was surprising, especially the crepe myrtle which can take until April to leaf out in some instances. Expecting to see some movement in the river birches and bradford pears within the next week or two. In fact the massive river birches in the neighbors yard has been releasing its pollen, which you know is occurring when the little catkin things expand. Should see some leaves soon. Oaks will take a while, they are usually the last of the bunch to leaf out.

It's really odd because I saw on Twitter everyone in South Carolina is posting photos of Bradford Pears blooming and yet they are still bare here in Northwest FL.

[Matthew92]

Maybe an unpopular opinion on here: but I really don't like it when we get this insane heat so early. Besides the light freeze event we got about a week ago, this is honestly one of the hottest Februarys I've experienced here in Northwest FL. 

I usually enjoy the fact that we get more 4 season/seasonal weather up here compared to peninsula FL. But this extended 80 degree weather in FEBRUARY (not just a couple days, but a solid week+!) that triggers plants to think it's late March or April makes me annoyed. This actually feels like deja-vu from when I lived in Orlando and such temps were common during these winter months. 

Some of my favorite springs here were 2010, 2014, and 2015 where we had enough cold/freeze events through February (and even into March) that we got a real spring with these early blooming plants coming to life mid/2nd half of March even into April (if I remember correctly, in 2010, the citrus didn't bloom until April!!!). It's amazing how many people at the local garden stores don't even pay attention to last frost dates and buy tender plants based only on the warm weather we currently are having. 

Well, with La Nina going away (La Nina contributes to the pattern of high pressure here in the Southeast that keeps cold air away and causes high temps: we've had 3 years of it in a row) and a possible El Nino coming (El Nino has occurred in years with colder winters in FL), maybe we'll have some more climatologically accurate springs in the near future.

It's times like this where I appreciate trees such as Hawthorne, Sand Post Oak, Nuttall Oak, Shumard Oak, Chinese Elm, Silver Maple, and others having the sense to not leaf out/flower so early (also for those trees it is insurance for if we get a late freeze). 

[Matthew92]

Well maybe it is possible we will get that March cold spell

 

 

[bubba]

This would be fine for those of us in S. Florida. It has been hotter than a monkey rogering a football down here. 

Actually, I have observed numerous warm winters in south Florida that are followed by cool months from March-May, which is a blessing!
 

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by bubba
Corrupt dictation

[JLM]

26 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Maybe an unpopular opinion on here: but I really don't like it when we get this insane heat so early. Besides the light freeze event we got about a week ago, this is honestly one of the hottest Februarys I've experienced here in Northwest FL. 

I usually enjoy the fact that we get more 4 season/seasonal weather up here compared to peninsula FL. But this extended 80 degree weather in FEBRUARY (not just a couple days, but a solid week+!) that triggers plants to think it's late March or April makes me annoyed. This actually feels like deja-vu from when I lived in Orlando and such temps were common during these winter months. 

Some of my favorite springs here were 2010, 2014, and 2015 where we had enough cold/freeze events through February (and even into March) that we got a real spring with these early blooming plants coming to life mid/2nd half of March even into April (if I remember correctly, in 2010, the citrus didn't bloom until April!!!). It's amazing how many people at the local garden stores don't even pay attention to last frost dates and buy tender plants based only on the warm weather we currently are having. 

Well, with La Nina going away (La Nina contributes to the pattern of high pressure here in the Southeast that keeps cold air away and causes high temps: we've had 3 years of it in a row) and a possible El Nino coming (El Nino has occurred in years with colder winters in FL), maybe we'll have some more climatologically accurate springs in the near future.

It's times like this where I appreciate trees such as Hawthorne, Sand Post Oak, Nuttall Oak, Shumard Oak, Chinese Elm, Silver Maple, and others having the sense to not leaf out/flower so early (also for those trees it is insurance for if we get a late freeze). 

I found this tool that compares the conditions that have been observed to the averages for different cities. Pensacola has had weather similar to Honolulu, Hawaii the past 3 days or so, and throughout February it has been more similar to what you would expect in Tampa for this time of year. Since January 1st, Pensacola has been more similar to Orlando. You were spot on for the comparison to Orlando! For the past 2 years in Pensacola, our weather has been more typical of Houston, TX.



Lets take a look at Miami, which has been very toasty! They have been experiencing weather that is typical in San Juan, PR for the past week. Year to date though, and even for the past 2 years, Miami has been feeling more like Honolulu, HI (2 year time period is further down on the chart).

[Can't think of username]

22 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Maybe an unpopular opinion on here: but I really don't like it when we get this insane heat so early. Besides the light freeze event we got about a week ago, this is honestly one of the hottest Februarys I've experienced here in Northwest FL. 

I usually enjoy the fact that we get more 4 season/seasonal weather up here compared to peninsula FL. But this extended 80 degree weather in FEBRUARY (not just a couple days, but a solid week+!) that triggers plants to think it's late March or April makes me annoyed. This actually feels like deja-vu from when I lived in Orlando and such temps were common during these winter months. 

Some of my favorite springs here were 2010, 2014, and 2015 where we had enough cold/freeze events through February (and even into March) that we got a real spring with these early blooming plants coming to life mid/2nd half of March even into April (if I remember correctly, in 2010, the citrus didn't bloom until April!!!). It's amazing how many people at the local garden stores don't even pay attention to last frost dates and buy tender plants based only on the warm weather we currently are having. 

Well, with La Nina going away (La Nina contributes to the pattern of high pressure here in the Southeast that keeps cold air away and causes high temps: we've had 3 years of it in a row) and a possible El Nino coming (El Nino has occurred in years with colder winters in FL), maybe we'll have some more climatologically accurate springs in the near future.

It's times like this where I appreciate trees such as Hawthorne, Sand Post Oak, Nuttall Oak, Shumard Oak, Chinese Elm, Silver Maple, and others having the sense to not leaf out/flower so early (also for those trees it is insurance for if we get a late freeze). 

I agree to an extent. I do like the Southeast US getting insane February heat for my weather monitoring, IF it means no dumb March or even freak April last frost backloads (and unfortunately, February heat seems to love dumb backloads).
The only exceptions I know of are 2017 and 2018 for Texas and Louisiana (but NOT generally east of there),  and 2020 for the Southeast US in general (Texas was a bit below normal for February though). February or sooner last frosts are great, March or later (even in the 3 weeks of winter March still has) are not.

[Can't think of username]

22 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Well maybe it is possible we will get that March cold spell

 

 

This is exactly the kind of dumb backload I was worried about. Unless the below normal temperatures refer to below normal highs and my list gets lucky with lows (as places like Tallahassee airport did in March 2014), I hope that forecast is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overestimating Southeast US cold.

[Merlyn]

I share your dislike of hot Februaries, it's 92-93F in the backyard right now.  A friend told me that Orlando had a record high or two this week, and that wouldn't surprise me at all.  The weeds are going absolutely nuts.  It's also dry and the sun is brutally hot right now.  This is pretty good for some of the frost-damaged palms, as they are in active regrowth mode.  Last year a lot of them did absolutely nothing until May.  My biggest Arenga Pinnata and 8' trunk Spindle have already opened a new stunted leaf, so it's good that they are moving and will probably recover quicker this spring.  On the other hand I planted some shade-loving palms with more Southern sun exposure in the winter.  They get lots of sun from December-March, and are well-shaded all summer.  They are definitely not happy with 90s and clear skies...

[Can't think of username]

1 minute ago, Merlyn said:

I share your dislike of hot Februaries, it's 92-93F in the backyard right now.  A friend told me that Orlando had a record high or two this week, and that wouldn't surprise me at all.  The weeds are going absolutely nuts.  It's also dry and the sun is brutally hot right now.  This is pretty good for some of the frost-damaged palms, as they are in active regrowth mode.  Last year a lot of them did absolutely nothing until May.  My biggest Arenga Pinnata and 8' trunk Spindle have already opened a new stunted leaf, so it's good that they are moving and will probably recover quicker this spring.  On the other hand I planted some shade-loving palms with more Southern sun exposure in the winter.  They get lots of sun from December-March, and are well-shaded all summer.  They are definitely not happy with 90s and clear skies...

Believe it or not Immokalee has gotten up to 35C on multiple days this February, breaking the old record by 3C!😲 This is the absolute subtropical champion of Florida winter heat, only beaten by the tropical Everglades it seems.

[Merlyn]

I've recorded several days in the 90-95F range, which is really absurd for February.  January was pretty normal though, with one cold front around 1/13-1/16.  It wasn't super cold here, but did dip down to freezing one night.  Monday morning was clear and 34-36F and about 7:30AM I watched heavy frost form all over the yard in a period of about 10-20 minutes.  Here's the temp profile in my yard:

[Matthew92]

This would have been yesterday (2/25/2023). Crazy times...

[Matthew92]

Oh boy...

 

 

[JLM]

3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Oh boy...

 

 

Been watching this signal. Our average temperatures begin a steady climb here soon, so those 5-6 degree below average temperatures may not be so bad. It is long range though and can definitely change, we will see how this progresses. 

Something else is that we are certainly not out of the woods for freezing temperatures either. I wont feel comfortable planting anything like bananas until after this mid march cold wave. Any big cold that we get in April is usually a light frost if even that.

[bubba]

Immokalee is hotter than a long tailed cat in a non-air conditioned room full of rocking chairs! They are crying like babies down in Jerome and Deep Lake because of the heat performance in Immokalee!

Warm winters in South Florida are almost always followed by seasonally cool March-May dry season. This is good news Mitch!

[Matthew92]

 

 

[Matthew92]

 

Looks like only North FL/Panhandle would be at risk for significant cold temperatures at this point.

[JLM]

12 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

 

Looks like only North FL/Panhandle would be at risk for significant cold temperatures at this point.

Depends on what you mean by significant. GFS is showing upper 30's at minimum at the moment. This could very easily change, but right now im not overly concerned. Its too far out still to know for certain how cold it may get.

The average high in Pensacola on 3/11 is about 70F, with the average low being somewhere around 52F. 6-8 degrees below average wouldnt be terrible.