Florida Winter 2022-2023

[bubba]

High 76 low 62! Relief!

[JLM]

Im not sure what the final temp is here, somewhere between 32F and 35F. Crestview hit 29F!!

My unprotected bananas (basjoo) got a nice layer of frost on the leaves, same with the elephant ears. Frost on every roof, and patchy frost in grassy areas. This frost was pretty light, which is still a lot for October. Thankfully temperatures warm to near 70F today, tonights low will be in the low 40's. Lows in the 50's again Friday night thru the weekend. Winter just decided to give us a quick taste, hopefully its not a warning.

Do note that if this cold blast had happened in December or January, we would be talking freezing temperatures deep into Florida. Just something to think about and hope that a cold blast like this doesnt happen again this winter.

[Jimbean]

58.3F at my location (between Melbourne and Palm Bay)

51.9F Downtown Sarasota

62.8F Downtown West Palm Beach

45.2F Downtown Jacksonville

 

[JLM]

Temperatures in NW FL as of 6:53 AM CDT

[Matthew92]

35 deg according to my weather station- however: I'm in that same situation as last year where my plastic greenhouse with heater running inside is just below the weather station mounted on the fence so I think it's possible that it might have gotten 2-3 degrees colder (a weather station not too far away in my neighborhood got to 32). 

Still: only light frost. Mostly on roofs- didn't even notice any in the grass or on many plants thankfully. 

[kinzyjr]

A few areas of interest along the I-4 corridor:

• Lakeland (KLAL) recorded an overnight low of 48F (+3F over the forecast).  At my place, my lowest reading was 49F.  The other sensors were above 51F. 
• Bartow (KBOW) came in at 52F. 
• Plant City (KPCM) reported a low of 50F.  This is odd because all of the readings on Wundermap in the area were ~47F regardless of Zoom level at 2am late last night.
• Zephyrhills (KZPH) recorded 42F at 3:15AM
• Tampa-Vandenburg (KVDF) reported 46F
• Tampa Intl. (KTPA) recorded 49F sometime between 4am and 6:30am.  The actual readings bottomed off at 50F, but the 6 hour min states 49F.
• Both Orlando airports(KORL, KMCO) and Sanford (KSFB) reported 54F for a low. 
• Kissimmee (KISM) reported 55F for an overnight low. 
• DeLand (KDED) reported 49F.
• In general, the further east you were, the better.

Glad it didn't get too rough for @JLM and @Matthew92 up in the Panhandle!

[Estlander]

Another 45F degree night for me.  Same as last night. 

[JLM]

What could we be looking at this winter in terms of cold snaps? Nobody knows, but we can look at the pattern and see what may be supported. December **might** be a pretty cold one. Ill post a twitter thread below, but the analog years at the bottom were cold ones in Pensacola.

1989 - 11F
2000 - 20F
2017 - 26F (not terrible, but January 2018 hit 21F)

The above numbers were recorded at the Pensacola International Airport, which is obviously a lot warmer than my location. It was likely at or below 10F at my location in 1989, below 20F in 2000, and probably low 20's in 2017 (teens in Jan 2018).

This is all speculation, but dont be surprised if this is "Florida's year."

Heres a thread:

NOAA has released their official prediction, which calls for below normal precip and above normal temps. Do be reminded that the NOAA forecast is a 3 month average, so extremes (+/-) can happen as you know.
 

[kinzyjr]

21 hours ago, JLM said:

This is all speculation, but don't be surprised if this is "Florida's year."

When I'm told to expect a warm winter, I just raise an eyebrow. @Alan_Tampa's rule applies... don't talk about winter until it is over.

[JLM]

3 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

When I'm told to expect a warm winter, I just raise an eyebrow. @Alan_Tampa's rule applies... don't talk about winter until it is over.

Being the weather nerd i am, thats very hard to do lol

 

[Jimbean]

If it's a cold winter then we will see what happens.  Cold winters demonstrate long term viability of tropical species in Florida. 

[JLM]

Models are starting to come into some sort of agreement that a major pattern shift will occur across the eastern US. We are currently in a warmer than average temperature pattern, but models are indicating that in the next 2 weeks the pattern will shift to a below average temperature pattern. This may or may not be a lasting pattern change, thats too soon to know. If this pattern stays through most December, oof...

[kinzyjr]

7 hours ago, JLM said:

Models are starting to come into some sort of agreement that a major pattern shift will occur across the eastern US. We are currently in a warmer than average temperature pattern, but models are indicating that in the next 2 weeks the pattern will shift to a below average temperature pattern. This may or may not be a lasting pattern change, thats too soon to know. If this pattern stays through most December, oof...

The change is starting to show in the 10-day forecast.

[JLM]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

The change is starting to show in the 10-day forecast.

Its showing up in the NWS forecast here. 64F for a high! My goodness, next weekend might be a wee bit chilly.

[JLM]

GFS seems to want a freeze here before the end of November, if not multiple freezes. It also seems to want a decent winter storms across the central plains at some point before November's end. We will see, im skeptical.

[bubba]

With the exception of one or two incursions of low temperatures in the 60°F range, we continue to experience relatively hot conditions ( perhaps a little less humidity) in South Florida. A cool down would be greatly appreciated.

[Jimbean]

I look forward to cooler weather and less humidity. 

[Bill H2DB]

   My preference , is to reduce the Humidity , but keep the Temperature as is .   A gentle breeze would be nice .

Clear skies in the morning and at night , some cumulus clouds during the day , and rain once per week in the late afternoon , the streets drying out quickly for safe driving ,

and only on Christmas morning , some actual cold temps. , but not too much .

[JLM]

........

I dont think ive ever seen that much of the country in the below average category before.

Edited November 6, 2022 by JLM

[JLM]

[JLM]

*laughs nervously*


Obviously not to be taken as gospel, but this just shows that the pattern for the end of November into early December will be a cold one.

[__nevii]

51 minutes ago, JLM said:

*laughs nervously*

Obviously not to be taken as gospel, but this just shows that the pattern for the end of November into early December will be a cold one.

Not good.

[kinzyjr]

18 hours ago, JLM said:

Obviously not to be taken as gospel, but this just shows that the pattern for the end of November into early December will be a cold one.

Let's go for no evil nights.... 😣

[JLM]

Well, this is for next weekend. The GFS ensemble group is in enough agreement that it shows freezing temperatures all the way almost to the coast. This means there are plenty of pretty cold ensemble members to make this happen. By the way, this pattern could support some overrunning precipitation, some interesting forecasts may surface over the next week. Or the models change and nothing happens. The former is more likely at the moment but who knows. Lots of factors will be at play here.

Personally, i just want some rain. 



(PS: Some of these ensemble members show many different precip types that does not include hail in the south, but dont get excited)

[JLM]

The below average temperature pattern is in full effect this week. Luckily its pretty likely that we get some rain here this week. Thursday night looks to host some painfully cold rain chances.

[chinandega81]

Yikes, rain in the 30s? Plants wont like that! People either. I am hoping for a warm winter!

[JLM]

Yeah, im taking steps to build structures for my banana and my zone 10 palms that are in the ground. I may be crazy for trying to keep foxtails and bottles alive in zone 8b but ive been successful for one year so far. This winter might be a rough one though.

[JLM]

Ok well, forgot to protect the foxtail, bottle, and banana. But its just a windy 36F, i shouldnt have to worry too much right? I hope not, but im gonna worry anyway.

[kinzyjr]

7 hours ago, JLM said:

Ok well, forgot to protect the foxtail, bottle, and banana. But its just a windy 36F, i shouldnt have to worry too much right? I hope not, but im gonna worry anyway.

Shouldn't since there was wind => no frost.

[kinzyjr]

18 minutes ago, Molly said:

So, which winter should we expect?

The Central Florida Winter Outlook:

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and live with what you get.   Welcome to PalmTalk!

[JLM]

52 minutes ago, Molly said:

So, which winter should we expect?

Its really hard to say. We can look at the big picture, and that is one with a La Nina background state. La Nina usually favors warmer and drier winters in the south. Throughout the winter though, we look for smaller pattern changes which can make a big difference. You can have a deadly freeze for a lot of your palms yet still have an above average winter in terms of temperature.

[JLM]

There is frost here, but only on rooftops. The NWS hit the nail on the head for my area, as i was forecasted to reach 34F and sure enough, its 34F.

FL Panhandle temperatures as of 6:38 AM 11/14/22:






My forecast is a chilly one, with highs in the 50's for most of the 7 day period besides today and tomorrow, and lows in the 30's-40's for most of the period. If this were like 3 weeks later, it would be much worse.

[kinzyjr]

Looks like Thursday night will be chilly here:

[JLM]

Here is how the forecast has evolved since yesterday. Freeze still expected Thursday night, could have another freeze over the weekend.

[JLM]

Forecast for Friday morning is a chilly one for the northern portion of the state. Right now the coldest forecast grid is in Walton County at 27F. This is a theme for NW FL. Along and north of I-10 will be at or below freezing, with areas south of I-10 at or just above freezing. The relative humidity will be rather high with light winds on Friday morning, which tells me we are in for quite the frost. Friday morning definitely has the potential to overachieve, and at the same time it could definitely underachieve.

[bubba]

Classic demonstration of the Gulfstream on temperatures. 69°F at West Palm Beach, 67°F at Miami and 65°F at Naples. This paradigm fails to match up with latitude.

[kinzyjr]

For this winter, an airport reading we can probably throw out. 

Plant City (KPCM) has been reporting 66F for over a half hour and all of the reporting stations from AmbientWeather.net and Wunderground around it have been at 63F max for the same amount of time.  This includes locations dead in the middle of town:

NWS:

AmbientWeather.net

Wunderground:

[JLM]

NWS now forecasting a plunge all the way down to 29F tonight. It might be just a wee bit cold tomorrow morning.

[kinzyjr]

2 hours ago, JLM said:

NWS now forecasting a plunge all the way down to 29F tonight. It might be just a wee bit cold tomorrow morning.

It's definitely going to feel like walking into a freezer tomorrow morning. 

Looks like a prediction for anywhere from 44F-48F in my area - depending on which site is used and what zip code is entered.. 

[Jimbean]

I'm looking at 52F or 53F tomorrow morning.