Florida Winter 2022-2023

[JLM]

James Spann is looking at a cooler pattern headed towards Christmas, which wouldnt be surprising. 

I doubt that cold will be fully denied this winter, we always get that one cold snap that makes us worry. I wouldnt disagree to no cold though 😄
 

 

[kinzyjr]

10 hours ago, JLM said:

I wouldnt disagree to no cold though

Same... no evil nights works for me.

[D. Morrowii]

I’m seeing a “51” way out on the Friday after next. I know these have a way of trickling downward as they get closer. Or am I paranoid? 🙂  

[kinzyjr]

11 minutes ago, D. Morrowii said:

I’m seeing a “51” way out on the Friday after next. I know these have a way of trickling downward as they get closer. Or am I paranoid?

No, I see the same thing happen frequently.  Two weeks out: 55, 1 week out: 42, 3 days out: 37F, 2 days out: 35F....

[Jimbean]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

No, I see the same thing happen frequently.  Two weeks out: 55, 1 week out: 42, 3 days out: 37F, 2 days out: 35F....

In a way that's actually kind of funny.  It's like sadistic and funny at the same time.

Long range weather forecasts are like that South Park episode where the bankers on wall street were using chickens with their heads cut off to decide what to do with failing companies. 

[Xenon]

Check out the two most recent GFS model runs for Texas...zone busting freeze or shorts & t-shirts? Which will it be? 😆

Most recent

The next most recent

[amh]

32 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Check out the two most recent GFS model runs for Texas...zone busting freeze or shorts & t-shirts? Which will it be? 😆

Most recent

The next most recent

I've seen some modeling that is even colder. I'm hoping for the warmer forecast, because I don't feel like bringing everything inside or going a week without power, again.

[bubba]

Clicks?

[bubba]

All of the models on tropical tidbits show that it has been extremely cold continually in the western United States. I have not heard or seen any temperatures that correspond to this western modeling. Am I missing something?

[JLM]

1 hour ago, bubba said:

All of the models on tropical tidbits show that it has been extremely cold continually in the western United States. I have not heard or seen any temperatures that correspond to this western modeling. Am I missing something?

Yes, you are missing the current temperature charts.



 

 

8 hours ago, Xenon said:

Check out the two most recent GFS model runs for Texas...zone busting freeze or shorts & t-shirts? Which will it be? 😆

Most recent

The next most recent

It is certainly a scary run, but luckily ive only seen this one run in particular that has been real bad. If you look at the CMC model, it will almost always look worse than reality.

A scenario like this couldnt be ruled out, but the right factors have to come into play. The stars aligned in that run, but it hasnt been shown again since that run, and its actually showing warmer than runs before the doomsday run.

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, JLM said:

Yes, you are missing the current temperature charts.



 

 

It is certainly a scary run, but luckily ive only seen this one run in particular that has been real bad. If you look at the CMC model, it will almost always look worse than reality.

A scenario like this couldnt be ruled out, but the right factors have to come into play. The stars aligned in that run, but it hasnt been shown again since that run, and its actually showing warmer than runs before the doomsday run.

As the saying goes:  Wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket   ..or the other..  just yet..  Remember too that what starts here in the west, doesn't always end there ...or stay there.  Areas that have managed to stay mild -so far ..are  far  from out of the woods.





 CMC? =  ..Every time.  Most of ignore it's existence.

[bubba]

These maps show continued cold in the West and do not touch Florida. What is the point?

[kinzyjr]

21 hours ago, Jimbean said:

In a way that's actually kind of funny.  It's like sadistic and funny at the same time.

Long range weather forecasts are like that South Park episode where the bankers on wall street were using chickens with their heads cut off to decide what to do with failing companies. 

When I first came to Florida, it was odd.  Nowadays, just a normal weekday in December-February.

Case similar to @D. Morrowii - woke up Tuesday and spotted a 51F in the forecast.  Now, a few 40s (2-3 depending on zip code locally)

[D. Morrowii]

48 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

When I first came to Florida, it was odd.  Nowadays, just a normal weekday in December-February.

Case similar to @D. Morrowii - woke up Tuesday and spotted a 51F in the forecast.  Now, a few 40s (2-3 depending on zip code locally)

 

22 hours ago, Jimbean said:

In a way that's actually kind of funny.  It's like sadistic and funny at the same time.

Long range weather forecasts are like that South Park episode where the bankers on wall street were using chickens with their heads cut off to decide what to do with failing companies. 

They are pretty good at hinting at the possibility that something may or may not be approaching and thats all I need at 10 days out! 
On the other hand if you're a weather nerd then its just fun to speculate, observe and arm chair forecast. 

[Jimbean]

My 10 day forecast is saying 65/52 for Saturday and 68/50 for Sunday

[JLM]

Just for fun, i decided to check my 10 day on TWC. It seems realistic at this point, and maybe just a little too warm actually for the 16th-17th (35F-36F). GFS, Euro, and CMC all showing a freeze on the morning of the 18th here. This will change, but a cold blast seems pretty certain going into next weekend. 

[JLM]

The fact that the GFS ensemble mean temperature is already nearing freezing on Christmas morning on the Gulf Coast tells me that theres quite a bit of agreement among each member. These are just the first signs of a cold back half of December.

And yes, you will see GFS runs that will show big winter storms in the south, because the latest run just showed over 3 winter weather events back to back in one run. This will most likely never happen. Until there is agreement among all the global models and their ensembles of winter weather in the south, then i will not take any run thats showing it seriously.

[Matthew92]

 

 

[Matthew92]

On 12/8/2022 at 10:27 PM, JLM said:

Just for fun, i decided to check my 10 day on TWC. It seems realistic at this point, and maybe just a little too warm actually for the 16th-17th (35F-36F). GFS, Euro, and CMC all showing a freeze on the morning of the 18th here. This will change, but a cold blast seems pretty certain going into next weekend. 

It's been way above average for so long here in North FL that the switch has got to flip soon- it can't last like this forever. Last Christmas we got this 'torch' weather into Christmas, but hopefully everything's aligning so we can get some seasonably cold weather around Christmas week this year.

[bubba]

Florida is a very long state. Once you move south below the point of continental climate (circa line from Cedar Key to St. Augustine), you begin to see the effect of water (Gulf and Atlantic) on temperatures.

this winter has been remarkably warm for December in Florida. Of course, that can change on a dime and frequently flip-flops. In south Florida, it will be interesting to see what January portends. I totally agree that more cool would be greatly appreciated. However, it would be nice to avoid the 1989 conditions!

[JLM]

Im not too sure that i can say that i appreciate the GFS ensemble MEAN TEMPERATURE showing 25 degrees here on Christmas Eve

Also, i saw for analogs lastnight for this upcoming pattern. We will see if it pans out, but the December analogs listed was 2010, 2009, 1989, and 1983. All were bad to some extent.

Edited December 12, 2022 by JLM

[bubba]

I know you are much deeper than I am on this weather out in the future science. However, I do not see anything on tropical tidbits models, which includes the GFS among others ( Euro, CMC, etc), that portends what you devine.

Where do you get this information? At the end of the day, are these not unlike the theaters referred to by Mr. Beam?

[ChristianStAug]

Now that it looks like this first round is not much to worry about for this weekend, the bigger worry comes leading up to Christmas. Looks like there is going to be quite a dumping of cold. We would have to hope that Florida gets the protective shield like it did in the Feb 2021 event.

Anybody see this yet on the GFS? What in the world.  Just some negatives F down to the Gulf Coast of Louisiana. 🤮😳

[__nevii]

1 hour ago, ChristianStAug said:

Now that it looks like this first round is not much to worry about for this weekend, the bigger worry comes leading up to Christmas. Looks like there is going to be quite a dumping of cold. We would have to hope that Florida gets the protective shield like it did in the Feb 2021 event.

Anybody see this yet on the GFS? What in the world.  Just some negatives F down to the Gulf Coast of Louisiana. 🤮😳

Holy...

[__nevii]

@JLM @bubba @ChristianStAug @chinandega81

Might have to start saying prayers soon, after seeing potentials regarding the some of these forecasts.

[JLM]

The 12z GFS was quite honestly on some top tier drugs today.
 

5 hours ago, bubba said:

I know you are much deeper than I am on this weather out in the future science. However, I do not see anything on tropical tidbits models, which includes the GFS among others ( Euro, CMC, etc), that portends what you devine.

Where do you get this information? At the end of the day, are these not unlike the theaters referred to by Mr. Beam?

The GEFS (GFS ensemble) is in the Ensemble category. Its not a global model, its a set of many models. What is shown on Tropical Tidbits is the mean temperature, rainfall, etc

[kinzyjr]

We get what we get... and hopefully that turns out to be another mild year with a few scares to keep us on our toes. 

A few years back, I remember seeing the thermometer read 37F at 7pm and thinking we were definitely going into at least the mid-20s overnight.  Then midnight came and the temperature started going up because some clouds moved in and there was a 2-3mph breeze.  Not enough wind to cause advective cold damage, but enough to mix the air.  It's better to be lucky than good.

[bubba]

Thank you for the clarification regarding Ensemble on tropical tidbit models. I used it and I see a December 25, 2022 cool down in your area in the Florida panhandle. However, these runs certainly do not portend anything close to 1899!

I have no question that even South Florida will get ours in January 2023. However, I am from Missouri on the constant excitement generated from the voracious following of these maps!

[ChristianStAug]

Wow! Don't look at today's midday GFS! Tracking freezes are worse than 'canes for the psyche.

[kinzyjr]

5 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

Wow! Don't look at today's midday GFS! Tracking freezes are worse than 'canes for the psyche.

Anticipation of a cold event seems evident in the forecast around Christmas time. 

[Sabal_Louisiana]

GFS showing stubborn consistency in its runs for hard freeze conditions in the deep south before during and after Christmas.

So what is the Euro showing?

A wild scenario of a truly monstrous cold air mass poised to spill out of the Rockies. This is the end of the 10 day on Dec 23rd.  

[bubba]

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/fl/west-palm-beach

[ChristianStAug]

DEFCON 3 ACTIVATED! ⚠️

[enigma99]

[Jimbean]

Weather underground has it as 44F as my low.  We'll see what happens. 

[Matthew92]

1 hour ago, enigma99 said:

 

I remember this past January (it was late in the month I believe) there was a signal of a huge arctic airmass intrusion that was similar to this. It looked very alarming (had similar hard freezing temps down into the peninsula) and was sort of near the end of the model runs. However, I remember the models dropped it after just a day or two (ended up being somewhat of a regular winter cold snap).

This one is staying run to run so far on multiple models. So it is concerning in that way and needs to be watched. The extent of freezing/hard freezing temperatures will end up being less, the same, or hopefully not more than what is currently shown by the time we get to this time period.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Matthew92

[bubba]

I believe that JLM clarified a major point for us regarding the forecast runs on Tropical Tidbits. He pointed out that the Global runs are not as precise as the Ensemble runs, like GEFS, which is a set of many models. Since receiving this advice, I have looked to the Ensemble runs (GEFS, GEPS and EPS), which seem to be much more accurate.

The Global runs have been exceedingly drastic. California and Arizona runs of the Global have consistently shown record breaking fronts with temperatures similar to cold like 1949. While it has been consistently cool in these areas, none have seen anything close to the 1949 temperatures.

The latest GEFS run through December 31, 2022 shows freezing incursions limited to the very northern tip of Florida. The GFS run posted by Enigma for Christmas Day, shows freezing low temperatures as far south as central Florida. While this is certainly possible, it is not in line with any of the Ensemble runs. As Matthew points out, these Global runs appear drastic only to be followed by major changes in the next run.

The bottom line is that anything could happen! Florida could experience another 1989 in a heartbeat! California could experience another 1949 in similar fashion. However, all of these runs, while backed by scientific data, that changes on a dime, do not reflect reality. Fun/Scary to watch but only estimates, ever changing!

[JLM]

Yep, anything can happen. It is important though to remember that the ensembles are pretty low resolution, especially since its an average. So in other words, it could be a little more widespread than it appears. Ensembles are pretty good for long range. Once we get much closer in time, global models would become more useful than ensembles. One thing im noticing about this cold snap in ALL models, global and ensemble, is that its moving forward in time which means it has some credibility. Those runs showing mid teens in northern Florida is not out of question, same with central Florida seeing at or below 30. Another thing to note is that as of right now, there is quite an agreement between most models that a big arctic outbreak will occur starting on the 22nd into the 23rd and could last for several days.

This bears watching, and it might not be a bad idea to go ahead and start preparing for this potential outbreak. I will be getting ready for it by figuring out how the hell im gonna protect all these 9a+ palms i have in the ground lol

[JLM]

Hmmm

[Matthew92]