Florida Winter 2022-2023

[mnorell]

The new GFS (12z) has dropped on Pivotal Weather and it looks like it is backing off of the harsher temps a little bit. The peninsula now showing the freezing line staying north of the Tampa-Orlando line, and less dire temps south of the I-20. Of course it's still a long way out and things can change on a dime with these models...

One thing I learned while living in southern Mississippi was that the most damaging cold periods seem to require a "priming" of the land to the north with copious snow/ice covering the ground for the thousands of miles the air must traverse into the subtropics. In 2010 this was very evident and of course it was like a long blitzkrieg. But this year has been ridiculously mild/warm in the eastern two-thirds of the nation and unless I missed something, there is rather little of this priming available, at least on the early portion of the upcoming period. Perhaps that bodes well for the southernmost tier in this blast of polar air. Of course if it persists that could change and be very bad for later January or February. Can someone chime in on whether the '83/'85/'89/'96 events had this feature distinguishing their assaults? Also I assume there has been a decent amount of tender new growth throughout FL with this anomalously warm autumn, which is a hallmark of worse-than-normal plant damage in late-season freezes there...

[Matthew92]

 

Remember it could end up being colder or warmer than this. 

[Zoltan]

Yes I getting ready to protect my palms, well but this is the when we all need to do it in order pull trough. 

I will focus on bottles palms  and may triangles the Rest should be good .

Jacksonville fl

Edited December 16, 2022 by Zoltan

[kinzyjr]

To illustrate @D. Morrowii's observation, look at the difference a couple of days makes in the forecast:

[JLM]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

To illustrate @D. Morrowii's observation, look at the difference a couple of days makes in the forecast:

Things are trending in the wrong direction.

[bubba]

Not sure if this helps. Interesting observation regarding the snowpack in the north in 2010 aiding the cold event in Florida:

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/Dec1989.pdf

[Matthew92]

1 hour ago, bubba said:

Not sure if this helps. Interesting observation regarding the snowpack in the north in 2010 aiding the cold event in Florida:

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/Dec1989.pdf

Very interesting: reminds me how awhile back I read this detailed analysis report on the December 1962 Florida freeze, and I distinctly remember it talking about how much of the Central US had snow cover and how that was integral in getting the arctic air to FL without moderating much.

[Matthew92]

Remember it will end up being colder, warmer, or the same as this forecast by the point we get to this time period. 

 

 

 

[Matthew92]

Meteorological requirements for a hard freeze well into Florida. I think our potential pattern has quite a few similarities to say the least... From "A History of Florida Citrus Freezes" by John A. Attaway. c. 1997. 

[Silas_Sancona]

6 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Meteorological requirements for a hard freeze well into Florida. I think our potential pattern has quite a few similarities to say the least... From "A History of Florida Citrus Freezes" by John A. Attaway. c. 1997. 

  That is about as perfect and precise of an explanation of the process as it gets.. 

[kinzyjr]

4 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Meteorological requirements for a hard freeze well into Florida. I think our potential pattern has quite a few similarities to say the least... From "A History of Florida Citrus Freezes" by John A. Attaway. c. 1997. 

A History of Florida Citrus Freezes is a very good book if you're interested in gaining more insight from the troops on the ground.  The weather records are sometimes arbitrary and incomplete, especially when it comes to duration of each freeze and the damage it caused.  It also has some weather records that are "unofficial", but insightful none the less.

[JLM]

CMC always brings a good laugh. Its showing 8F on Christmas morning in Marianna, FL. Not gonna happen.

On the other hand, heres my most up to date NWS forecast (issued ~20 minutes ago). The painful reality is starting to set in.

[JLM]

Here is the NWS Mobile forecast discussion. I have only pasted the section regarding the arctic airmass that models agree on so much.

"Things will take a dramatic turn by the end of the week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in strong agreement that very strong upper level energy will dive south out of western Canada and amplify a deep longwave trough over the eastern half of the country by Thursday/Friday. An arctic front is forecast to quickly march southeast and move across our area Thursday night. There is some disagreement on how warm it will get on Thursday ahead of the front, with the ECMWF and the ensembles on the warmer side of the guidance compared to the GFS and the NBM. What is in remarkable agreement this far out is the extent of cold associated with the arctic front. Both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean shows temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees below normal by Friday. This is very impressive for an ensemble mean 7 days out and the ensembles have been consistent for several days in showing this scenario. Therefore, there is high confidence in a period of very cold weather by the end of the work week that will extend beyond the official forecast period into the holiday weekend. Current guidance indicates lows in the teens/20s by Friday morning with highs struggling to climb out of the 30s in most areas on Friday (with even lower wind chills.) We still have time to better resolve just how cold this arctic airmass will be so further adjustments are likely. It should be noted that sometimes the global models struggle resolving the extent of these low level arctic airmasses. Therefore, it is possible we could be even colder on Friday than what the official forecast shows. This is just a possibility to keep in mind. Also, given this still 6-7 days out, the timing of the arctic front could be a little slower/faster."

- NWS MOB AFD

Edited December 16, 2022 by JLM

[kinzyjr]

The flux here has been between 32F and 34F on the 23rd.  We'll see.  Anything can happen in a week.

[D. Morrowii]

25 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

The flux here has been between 32F and 34F on the 23rd.  We'll see.  Anything can happen in a week.

Ours has been bouncing between 36 and 38. Some close monitoring is in order.

[South Carolina palms]

On 12/15/2022 at 7:50 PM, Zoltan said:

Yes I getting ready to protect my palms, well but this is the when we all need to do it in order pull trough. 

I will focus on bottles palms  and may triangles the Rest should be good .

Jacksonville fl

How cold is it expected to be there? 

[JLM]

The GFS (American), CMC (Canadian), ICON (German), and ECMWF (European) are all showing freezing temperatures for around and north of Lakeland and Orlando for Friday night into Saturday morning (23rd into 24th).

The ICON is probably the coldest overall at the moment, showing freezing temperatures as far south as Lake Okeechobee. The CMC is similar to the ICON but just a touch warmer. The GFS shows freezing temperatures as far south as the I-4 corridor respectively. The ECMWF shows freezing temps reaching between Ocala and I-4. In addition to the global models, the ensemble mean for both the GFS and ECMWF (GEFS and EPS), is showing solutions very similar to the ECMWF deterministic. These will change a lot, and as NWS Mobile noted, global models may be a touch too warm, even if they are already bitterly cold (im looking at you ICON and CMC).

We will see how this trends. For my area and the rest of northern Florida, its almost guaranteed to have a string of nights with freezing temps, its just a question of how low does it get and will it be a long term freeze that lasts for over 24 hours (many model solutions have suggested this for areas west of Tallahassee).
For Central Florida, freezing temperatures are possible. If it does get down below freezing, how far will it go? How far south will the freezing temperatures reach?
For South Florida, it really wont even take freezing temperatures for damage to occur. No model solution shows freezing temperatures south of Lake Okeechobee at this point, and i doubt this will change much. 
With that, entire state of Florida needs to be watching and preparing for the possibility of a damaging cold event. It is important to remember that a damaging cold event in Pensacola is much different than in, for example, West Palm Beach.

I will be looking at my arsenal of what im gonna start calling "anti cold weapons" (lights, sheets, etc). Hopefully ill be able to go out and get this stuff this week, and everything is wrapped and protected by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should start dropping for me on Thursday night. Timing may speed up/slow down so the plan may change, especially if timing speeds up. Fingers crossed it doesnt get too bad.

[JLM]

Need some opinions on whether i should protect for the wind chill. I know that palms dont feel wind chill, but surely 24F combined with near 30 mph wind gusts would cause damage, right? 

[bubba]

I am not certain that I understand the basis, for you were all hands on deck call in south Florida. I have checked the runs of all models on tropical tidbits, including global and ensembles. I see nothing that threatens frost anywhere near the Glades around Christmas. Please let me know what I am missing. Please also find the latest 10 day in our area. I see no reason to request my neighbor to shield her Red Sealing Wax indigenous to Borneo. Please explain what I am missing. Thank you in advance.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/fl/west-palm-beach

 

[Fishinsteeg234]

As of now, the freeze/frost prediction line appears to be holding around the I-4 corridor. 

[Matthew92]

Not a forecast. But such agreement means it's going to be quite cold in some capacity.

 

 

[JLM]

NWS Mobile already sighting the need for Hard Freeze and Wind Chill products for this area late this week.
 

26 minutes ago, bubba said:

I am not certain that I understand the basis, for you were all hands on deck call in south Florida. I have checked the runs of all models on tropical tidbits, including global and ensembles. I see nothing that threatens frost anywhere near the Glades around Christmas. Please let me know what I am missing. Please also find the latest 10 day in our area. I see no reason to request my neighbor to shield her Red Sealing Wax indigenous to Borneo. Please explain what I am missing. Thank you in advance.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/fl/west-palm-beach

 

You dont have to have frost for it to be cold enough to see some damage occur with the most tender of palms/other plants. Model guidance will flip back and forth with how cold it gets throughout the state. It will go lower and higher. Forecasting this could almost be compared to a hurricane, aint got a single clue whats gonna happen until we are only a couple days till the event. However, models are in remarkable agreement for this, but regardless, changes will still occur and nothing is set in stone right now other than the fact that its gonna be cold.

Edited December 17, 2022 by JLM

[Matthew92]

Wind chill/wind burn will be an issue for many of our plants.

 

 

[JLM]

1 minute ago, Matthew92 said:

Wind chill/wind burn will be an issue for many of our plants.

 

 

I dont think either humans or palms will like the 10F wind chill on Friday morning.

[Matthew92]

1 hour ago, JLM said:

I dont think either humans or palms will like the 10F wind chill on Friday morning.

Definitely true as well!

[Looking Glass]

I’ve been down here for 12-13 years, and most of that in a downtown high rise.  We always looked forward to the occasional cold snaps for a change of weather.  The ladies could wear Uggs and a scarf with their miniskirts, and I might even wear sweatpants at night and break out the 9inch space heater and put it next to the couch.      

Now, with a yard and palms and other plants, it’s a whole different perspective, though I don’t have any zone-pushes.  In a few days, some people may be protecting their lipsticks, and other stuff I can’t pronounce though…..  or it might just end up being 48 degrees.   

I always marvel at the dedication and lengths people go to, to protect their leafy dependents.  We are all crazy in our own way.  

It’s hard to judge some lady pushing around a chihuahua in a baby carriage, from up on the ladder you’re using to wrap up your palm in a warm blankie for the night.  

[JJPalmer]

While I’m not living in St Pete anymore, my fingers are crossed for everyone. Latest graphic from NWS Tampa. 

[kinzyjr]

10 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

While I’m not living in St Pete anymore, my fingers are crossed for everyone. Latest graphic from NWS Tampa.

The forecast is still in flux, but this is currently what is being prognosticated by Weather.com in the area:

 

[Can't think of username]

Haven't been back here in quite a while! I'm seeing both downsides and upsides to the forecasts: the freeze looks to be very advective but only of moderate intensity.

The downside to this freeze is that stations that are as warm as they are because of being by the water or an elevated urban heat island may be hit hard. Destin is forecast for -4 Celsius despite a normal -2.7 Celsius seasonal minimum, and Tallahassee FSU which is probably about the same as Destin is forecast for  -7 Celsius(!)😬. That would be FSU Tallahassee's first time getting its first frost in December since 2020, and Destin's first time getting its first frost in December since 2010.

The upside is that radiation-threatened areas will probably get off easy. Archbold Biological Station isn't even forecast for a frost, just 2 Celsius!

I'd also like to give a reminder that these forecasts for bad freezes can be pretty off. I've seen this just this January 30 for example, when Tampa was forecast for -1 Celsius but got off at 2 Celsius.
 

[chinandega81]

19 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

The forecast is still in flux, but this is currently what is being prognosticated by Weather.com in the area:

 

How damaging is a dry, 48 hour period that never goes below freezing, but never gets above the low 50s? Specifically regarding tropicals in Central Florida?

[JLM]

NWS is calling for the possibility of 2-3 nights of hard freezes here. This is absurd.

On Thursday, they are calling for a high of 63F. Temperatures begin dropping Thursday night, but this will be no ordinary temperature drop. They are forecasting a low of 25F for Thursday night, which is nearly a 40 degree drop in temperature over a span of 6-12 hours. Wind is expecting to be sustained around 20 mph gusting to near 30F. The wind chill is forecasted to be a bitterly cold 11F.

On Friday, temperatures dont climb above freezing until almost noon. The high tops out at 37F around 3 PM, then begins dropping quickly. Winds sustained at around 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph yields a wind chill in the mid to upper 20's. Friday night, temperatures plummet, going below the freezing mark by 5 PM. The ultimate low hits 19F. Wind chills will be even colder than the previous night at 8F. 

Saturday starts off bitterly cold, with the temperatures not climbing above freezing until almost 11 AM. The high reaches 39F. Wind will be much calmer for Saturday, being sustained at 9 mph. Wind chill should stay around the freezing mark all day regardless. The temperature drops below freezing by 7 PM, hitting an ultimate low of 22F.

Christmas Day looks to be warmer, with a high of 43F. Not sure when temperatures rise above freezing, but if i had to guess itll probably be around 9 or 10 AM.

So far just with the current forecast thru midday Saturday, i am expecting to have 28 hours of freezing temperatures. I am expecting 3 hours tonight, 7 hours Thursday night, and 18 hours Friday night. The number of freezing hours for Saturday night is currently unknown. In addition, it is likely that there will be a night or two of freezing nights beyond the forecast period, with each night having less freezing hours.

[kinzyjr]

3 hours ago, chinandega81 said:

How damaging is a dry, 48 hour period that never goes below freezing, but never gets above the low 50s? Specifically regarding tropicals in Central Florida?

It's really species-dependent.  In addition to the two cold days at the end of January 2022, we had a day (01/23/2022) where it was literally 46F-48F with rain all day.  It eventually cracked 50F around midnight.  Basically, anything I did a report on in the January 2022 Florida Freeze Report has gone through the test.

Licuala, Caryota, and Zombia don't seem to mind until we get frost. 

Our native Coccothrinax argentata, Leucothrinax morrisii, Pseudophoenix sargentii, and Roystonea regia handle it well.

The crownshaft palms that are notorious for handling long cool spells like Archontophoenix, Chambeyronia, and Dictyosperma album 'conjugatum' tend not to be bothered at all.  Wodyetia, Veitchia, Adonidia, and Carpentaria performed well here during January 2022, so hopefully it will be a repeat performance.  Once in a while these get some cold spotting on their leaflets.  Carpoxylon macrospermum did fine as well.  Bottles and Spindles seem to do OK so long as they aren't hit with heavy frost.  Ptychosperma elegans and Ptychosperma macarthurii seem to handle it better than I expected.  Satakentia liukiuensis did fine here and downtown.

Coconuts tend to get yellow leaves and some leaf tip necrosis and get more leaf die-back if there is frost.  The damage on the coconuts tends to happen on the second day when the cold is more due to radiational cooling.  Out of the varieties I have, Maypan and Panama Tall did the best last year.  There are a lot of Green Malayans that did OK.  The Jamaican Talls took a lot of leaf damage considering their reputation, but never stopped growing.  This year will be the maiden voyage for the Fiji Dwarf.  The advantage to this cultivar is that it could permanently stay under canopy.  If it proves leaf hardy enough, it's probably the best choice for those of us in less than optimal growing zones.

The species that we have in our city gardens that tends to take damage first is Areca catechu.  Most of ours start showing damage around 35F.

This cold front coming Friday might be a little different, but we'll see.

[Matthew92]

Interesting thing I was thinking about. I recall how on previous year's thread of this same topic for FL how it has been discussed that the threat for hard freezes start quickly diminishing in late January due to the sun getting higher. 

With this cold outbreak coming: it's noteworthy to point out that this arctic airmass has such an advantage for amassing amidst the lowest solar levels of the year with the 21st being the minimum (winter solstice). 

 

[pj_orlando_z9b]

The 18z run of the GFS is warmest yet. Hope that trend continues. Has 47/37 and 52/38 for Orlando. European model unfortunately trended colder earlier today. Has 43/28 and 44/31. Yikes. 

I'll likely implement the same setup I used last year. Propane heater in an enclosed space. The difference I plan this year is to have a fan facing up to carry the heat up the enclosure to the meristem. If it's windy, it may not matter much though. 

[JLM]

These recent trends in models are probably for the better. Snow is not occurring as far south as previous runs have shown. Subsequently, temperatures are just a touch higher across the Gulf Coast. How cold it gets on the Gulf Coast impacts how cold it gets further south into Florida. Not saying it wont be cold, but maybe not as deadly cold as previous runs have shown.

Despite this, i am not taking chances, as models can very well reverse and go the opposite direction tomorrow or the next day. This is just something to keep in mind.

[JLM]

Just determined that my backyard Queen is over 30 feet tall 😐

Edit: Me and my lack of using me eyes told me 30 ft, nah

I measured again to see if that was right, it wasnt even close. Its actually closer to 20 feet. This makes my life easier lol

Edited December 19, 2022 by JLM

[JLM]

A quick look at any forecast changes:

1) Friday night low has decreased to 18F from 19F.

2) Thursday night low has increased from 25F to 27F.

3) Saturday night low has decreased to 21F from 22F.

[Jimbean]

My forecast low has been hovering around 36F for the past 24 hours.  We'll see what happens.

[Matthew92]

I've seen my minimum low forecast temps go up just barely in the last day's worth of model runs/forecasts. However, amidst this I started noticing something else. It appears the cold is being spread out more beyond that initial time when the arctic front moves through. In the beginning, my forecast showed the one really cold night in the low 20's/teens with a lesser freeze(s) after, then yesterday it seemed to spread that out into two nights in the low or mid 20's. And now it looks like I might at least have 3 nights well into the 20's. 

I also have been watching various model runs for peninsular FL, and even the Euro now shows the 2nd or even 3rd night having about the same temps as the first (has around 27-30 deg in Orlando 3 nights in a row). These 2nd and 3rd nights look to potentially have some nasty radiational freezes.

This situation is evolving in real time, and this arctic airmass may cause such problems by lingering around in our neck of the woods. Again, doesn't look to be the duration of a Jan 2010 type event, but still something to contend with.

[Matthew92]

This exemplifies well what I was referring to in my previous comment.