Florida Winter 2022-2023

[Merlyn]

Yeah I was thinking the same thing on frost Saturday morning.  29F, 28F and 32F are the new forecasts.  If past patterns hold it will be 3 or so degrees colder at my place.  25ish in the backyard would not be unexpected.  I'd be happy with a little breeze to keep the frost minimized.

[Jimbean]

46 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

I'd say so as well - your location is one of the most protected from radiational cooling away from the coast.  Forecast is a bit lower here, but the clouds are still in it for the second and third night.  There are two freeze watches issued here and one freeze watch issued over in Orange county.  @ruskinPalms might have hit the nail on the head with a "sneaky frost" on Monday for open and exposed areas.

Geez that forecast has gotten worse.

I just looked up mine at the NWS and I'm seeing this:

 

 

[kinzyjr]

1 minute ago, Jimbean said:

Geez that forecast has gotten worse.

I just looked up mine at the NWS and I'm seeing this:

This kind of thing happens a lot west of US-27 and south of I-4.  It corresponds to the old "zone 9a bulge" on the previous version of the USDA zone map.  What looks like something that will be a cursory event turns into a nail-biter for marginal plants, especially away from the city's interior.  The one part of the forecast that may turn out not to be accurate is that it is forecast to get colder downtown than here. 

Planting for zone 9a here is a good way to limit the amount of Xanax prescribed.

[Matthew92]

Interesting history tidbit on the Melbourne NWS discussion today

 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

 Top 3 Coldest Lows for Christmas Eve (12/24)

  Daytona                  Sanford            Leesburg
1. 20 (1989)              1. 19 (1989)        1. 19 (1989)
2. 30 (1983 & 1929) 2. 32 (1975)        2. 30 (1967)
3. 32 (1995)              3. 36 (1995 & 1968) 3. 31 (1975)

  Orlando      Melbourne    Vero Beach   Ft Pierce
1. 22 (1989)  1. 22 (1989) 1. 23 (1989) 1. 19 (1989)
2. 26 (1906)  2. 35 (1995) 2. 35 (1995) 2. 29 (1906)
3. 28 (1930)  3. 38 (1968) 3. 38 (1975) 3. 31 (1995)

 Top 3 Coldest Lows for Christmas Day (12/25)

  Daytona         Sanford        Leesburg
1. 20 (1983)    1. 19 (1989)    1. 19 (1989 & 1983)
2. 23 (1989)    2. 22 (1983)    2. 26 (1966)
3. 29 (1995)    3. 28 (1995)    3. 29 (1995)

  Orlando      Melbourne    Vero Beach   Ft Pierce
1. 21 (1983)  1. 21 (1983) 1. 26 (1989) 1. 22 (1989)
2. 25 (1906)  2. 27 (1989) 2. 29 (1983) 2. 27 (1995)
3. 27 (1989)  3. 31 (1995) 3. 32 (1995) 3. 29 (1983)
 

[Jimbean]

We are forecast to match the 2nd coldest Christmas Eve, but imagine getting a 1989 event instead of this one. 

[ruskinPalms]

This will most likely not be that big of a deal for the southern two thirds of Florida. It has not been a cold fall around here, the gulf and Atlantic are still full of all kinds of heat despite what surface temps may say. My coldest weather comes from north-northeast winds and pure radiational nights. Yet, as soon as any component of east is added to the wind, it includes the Atlantic and even the Gulf Stream in a round about way which starts the rapid moderation process. I know, I’ve seen the records from the days of yore, but this isn’t the one.  

[Palmarum]

-Begins to bring plants inside... -

6 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

We are forecast to match the 2nd coldest Christmas Eve, but imagine getting a 1989 event instead of this one. 

A super cold Xmas eve reminds me of the Dec. 24th, 1989 Miami Dolphins home game against the Kansas City Chiefs... It was 39ºF (plus wind) at a 1:00pm kickoff! I was there, freezing to death with thousands of others; a bunch of S. Floridians wearing every piece of clothing they owned. Usually the shaded seats are ideal and sought after, but this game we worshiped the sun. We cursed the stadium shadow as it approached and prayed it didn't reach us. Still stands as the coldest Dolphins game at home.. still got the ticket.

 

May it be warmer for everyone than the forecasts predict. Hug your trees and bring the rest of the potted plants inside. I still find myself forced to trim and weed plants before packing them into the garage. The mental game of going species to species while deciding on what to do, can be both fun and chaotic. A: what needs to protected, B: marginal stuff that will be iffy, but will survive and grow back C: Plants with unknown tolerance that should/could be experimented upon. Anyone else going through the same mental routine when it gets cold?

Ryan

[kinzyjr]

34 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

We are forecast to match the 2nd coldest Christmas Eve, but imagine getting a 1989 event instead of this one. 

Same scenario here, but I'm glad it isn't 1989: The Sequel.  Here is Lakeland's current top 3.

The airport (KLAL) is forecast to record 29F on Saturday, so it has a good chance of coming in #2.

[NickJames]

well, after suffering not one but TWO hurricane experiences this year, including catastrophic flooding that put several of my palms underwater but somehow didn’t kill them, I was hoping for a mild winter…joke’s on me!! 

I am expecting total cocos devastation. Hoping the royals survive. There’s too much this year to try to heat, so I’m going to rely on the irrigation system that’s new for this winter - I’m going to have it come on every other hour and douse the whole yard in 72 degree water. I’m hoping this will keep the ambient temperature on the surface of the palms above freezing. This trick actually used to stop my lawn from browning in Jax. Of course, it wouldn’t work with lower 20s because it would probably turn to ice. 

[JLM]

I think a big problem for me will be duration. NWS is forecasting that i go above freezing for a single hour tomorrow. 1 hour of above freezing temperatures. This above freezing temp is 33F. This will not end well for many plants in the area that arent good with long term freeze conditions.

Edit: I have high hopes for my protection method for this event. I cant see the lights that i wrapped the palms in through the sheets and plastic. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by JLM

[Can't think of username]

Archbold has its first frost forecast on Christmas Eve, in line with everything else. It's only -1 Celsius though, so it's not too bad and could easily be no frost if the forecast changes,

[Matthew92]

Enough of the arctic front was able to make it through this morning to get pretty much all of Okaloosa county at or below freezing. Just north on the mainland is at 30 deg F with 32-33 at the beaches. However, farther west one can see what is still coming, with Pensacola beach around 30 deg and Gulfport MS at 22! 
 

Wind is considerable here. It wasn’t terrible on the mainland but once I got out near the beaches where I work it is pretty fierce. 

[JJPalmer]

Posted this in the other thread, but figured it may provide additional visibility here.  You can use this site from the NWS to find officially reported low temperatures.  I would turn off Hazard Overlays, make sure Surface Observation Overlays are turned on, and select 'Min Temperature' under the display tab.  This allows you to see the minimum recorded temperatures since midnight of the current day.  There are fewer stations, but *generally* they will be of a much higher quality.  Also, much like Wunderground, you need to zoom further in to ensure you see all stations. A few examples from today below:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/

[JLM]

Based on surrounding stations, i had a low of about 25F this morning. Still in the upper 20's here as of 10:45 AM CST

[JLM]

If you set the density to ALL (you have to be zoomed in enough), it will show all the stations. Heres Pensacola for example.



Zooming out, the map automatically pulls back to 3x density. As you can see, if the front came through a couple of hours earlier, we wouldve been flirting with evil numbers this morning.



And now zoomed out even more to state level, the map is set to 2x density. Heres the low across the state today:

[RedRabbit]

Here’s the NWS forecast map for Tampa Bay:

 

[Matthew92]

Amazing the difference 50 or so miles makes @JLM. At my house in a cold spot in southeast Okaloosa County (not close to any body of water) the coldest it got from what I can see is 29 deg F (Due to how far eastward the arctic front got).

While some locations in the Western FL Panhandle are still at or below freezing, I’m finally seeing some stations go above. Still, I’ve been amazed at how the temps were still dropping even after the sun got quite high in the sky into the late morning. 
 

This is one potent airmass!

Edited December 23, 2022 by Matthew92

[kinzyjr]

@RedRabbit Those numbers are definitely showing up in the forecast at this point.  My sensors recorded a high temperature of 75F right around 10:20 AM.  It's currently between 63F and 64F on all of them.

[Jimbean]

[kinzyjr]

Here was a photo of the approaching cold front at 8:53AM this morning

[JJPalmer]

24 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Amazing the difference 50 or so miles makes @JLM. At my house in a cold spot in southeast Okaloosa County (not close to any body of water) the coldest it got from what I can see is 29 deg F (Due to how far eastward the arctic front got).

While some locations in the Western FL Panhandle are still at or below freezing, I’m finally seeing some stations go above. Still, I’ve been amazed at how the temps were still dropping even after the sun got quite high in the sky into the late morning. 
 

This is one potent airmass!

I’ve since left Florida for the Denver metro (but remain interested in FL’s climate). Temps here fell ~40° in one hour, and the cloud at the leading edge of the front caused but the drastic temperature change is something I won’t forget.  Good luck down there!

[PalmatierMeg]

Cold front arrived with a rain squall while we were shopping in Publix. Sunny and warm when we walked in, dark, menacing and raining when we came out 30 minutes later. Mid-70s then, now 66.6F and falling after a 10-minute deluge. Predicted low tonight: 37F. Predicted high tomorrow: 52F. Same forecast for 12/25.

I filled my 5 mini greenhouses on the back lanai, then zipped them closed before shopping so my small tropicals were spared the shower before the cold drop. That’s the extent of the protection I’m taking. We just can’t lug or cover palms like we used to. Good luck to all.

[PalmatierMeg]

13 hours ago, NickJames said:

well, after suffering not one but TWO hurricane experiences this year, including catastrophic flooding that put several of my palms underwater but somehow didn’t kill them, I was hoping for a mild winter…joke’s on me!! 

I am expecting total cocos devastation. Hoping the royals survive. There’s too much this year to try to heat, so I’m going to rely on the irrigation system that’s new for this winter - I’m going to have it come on every other hour and douse the whole yard in 72 degree water. I’m hoping this will keep the ambient temperature on the surface of the palms above freezing. This trick actually used to stop my lawn from browning in Jax. Of course, it wouldn’t work with lower 20s because it would probably turn to ice. 

Coconuts in inland central FL. I’m impressed with your zone pushing. Hope they all make it.

BTW, have you been able to check out your property on Pine Island? Ian really nailed it (nailed Cape Coral as well). I haven’t even tried to travel out that way - those poor residents don’t need another lookie-lou snooping around cross-crossing the temporary bridge. I worked for 17 years at a mitigation bank on Little Pine Island and traveled through the fishing village of Matlacha 10 times a week. Just the photos of Matlacha now are heartbreaking and I wonder if my office trailer on LPI survives (it survived Charley, Wilma & Irma). Somehow I doubt it.

[Merlyn]

It's still 66.6F and sunny here in NW Orlando, with a light breeze of maybe 3-5mph.  I just finished making my big honkin' cardboard boxes for a couple of plants.  Going under cover are a Corypha Umbraculifera, Caryota Gigas/Obtusa, Butia x Parajubaea Sunkha, Dypsis Onilahensis, Copernicia Macroglossa hybrid, E. Natalensis x Woodii, and an Elaeis Guineensis "Whole Leaf" mutant.  Everything else gets to fend for itself.  Last year the boxes helped a lot for frost damage, and certainly provided some degree of insulation.  The ground temp here is still in the 60s, so there's enough latent heat to keep it a couple of degrees warmer inside the box.  I'll have to take out my thermocouple setup and check inside/outside the boxes...just out of curiosity.

[D. Morrowii]

The afternoon high forecasted for us here today was 70 but we topped out at 75.6. Same as others mentioned the clouds and wind showed up about an hour ago and the temps dropped to 63. I’m hoping the forecast remains off by that amount for the rest of this cold front but I know thats not likely.

[JLM]

Current conditions here is severe clear (not a single cloud in the sky) with a temperature of 32F. Wind is northwest at somewhere between 10 and 20 mph. Wind chill is in the 20's. 

Forecast says temperatures should begin dropping by 3 PM. Appears we didnt even make it a half a degree above freezing. This is colder than the forecast, which said a high of 34F. If temperatures drop faster or further than expected before clouds move in tonight, it could go lower than the forecasted 18F. No matter what happens, im about as prepared as i can be for it.

[JLM]

As of 4:35 PM CST my temperature has fallen into the 20's. 

[Emarohl]

Praying for my cocos. Looking like it is supposed to stay above freezing here but I’m worried about the 3 day span of sub 40 temps. I have one young one in a pot that is safely inside. My other two were just planted in March and are partially sheltered from my house on the south side of it. Im not too worried about my wodyetia bifurcata or adonidias. Got the rest of my citrus, tropicals, and small seedlings in pots so they’re inside and safe. Hoping my proximity to the water helps moderate the temps.

(Pardon the brick, Ian knocked that coco over and it’s helped it from falling over again 😂)🤞🏻

[Jimbean]

At 6:55PM

[Jimbean]

 

 

[kinzyjr]

@Emarohl You should be fine in Sarasota.  You might get some leaf damage on them, but I doubt anything fatal.

***===================================***

I decided to wimp out and wrap a few of my plants around 5pm.  The cocos have their stems and buds wrapped.  The Veitchia subdisticha got the same even though it had nothing more than a little browning at the leaf tips in January.  The Medemia argun bed got a quick cover to prevent frost since they just hit the ground not long ago.  Everything else is jumping without a 'chute.  My yard had the same experience as @D. Morrowii today; with an ultimate high of 75F at 10:00 AM and a drop thereafter. 

The NWS forecast is the coldest, calling for 28F overnight now.  For the first time in my viewing history, AccuWeather is the highest at 30F.  Usually, Weather.com is the most accurate for my particular location and they are predicting 29F.  28F-30F is roughly the average for this area, but the duration and wind might make it more damaging than a typical cold front.

The highest wind speed in the neighborhood is 11MPH.  It is typical for the wind speed here to be lower due to everyone bordering their property with hedges and fences,  plus being on the east side of a hill.

[pj_orlando_z9b]

I'm prepared. Went higher with the frame this year so heat in the structure can rise up the meristem.  This heater is phenomenal. I stood inside the structure and it felt very warm. The heater has a blower so it throws the heat inside.  I feel comfortable about the forecast 30 both nights. Surprised by the temps today...dropped about 10 degrees with the front but then climbed to mid 60s.  Just fell to 49F.

[Walt]

6 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

I'm prepared. Went higher with the frame this year so heat in the structure can rise up the meristem.  This heater is phenomenal. I stood inside the structure and it felt very warm. The heater has a blower so it throws the heat inside.  I feel comfortable about the forecast 30 both nights. Surprised by the temps today...dropped about 10 degrees with the front but then climbed to mid 60s.  Just fell to 49F.

Good Job, pj! The trunk and meristem should be more than fine, and that's the main thing. Some fronds might get cold damage, especially tomorrow night when there will be little or no wind -- and that means frost (frozen dew). 

[Walt]

My near 20-year-old green Malayan dwarf coconut will have to fend for itself. I'm not physically able to protect it any longer, although I think it will pull through the next several days with leaf damage. However,  I do have a small coconut I sprouted back in 2020 that I am protecting tonight and through the weekend. Not sure of the variety. A friend gave it (nut) to me. I think it's half Panama tall and something else. In any event, I don't want it cold damaged. Today I provided cold/frost protection to it as shown in photos.

Photo #1: Coconut palm before protection.

Photo #2: Palm cinched with rope to bundle fronds.

Photo #3: Palm covered with flannel sheet with heating cable wrapped over it.

Photo #4: Palm with another sheet and terry cloth towels wrapped over heating cables.

Photo #5: Palm with PVC tarp wrapped over all coverings. PVC trap will prevent dew from forming on cotton sheets and wetting them, thus destroying insulative qualities.

I wrapped this palm last winter the same way when my low was 28 degrees. The palm wasn't hurt at all.  My unprotected mature coconut palm was mostly defoliated.

[Walt]

This is my near 20-year-old green Malayan dwarf coconut palm. Last winter it saw 28 degrees with heavy frost. It was near defoliated. After the 2022 growing season it managed to regrow about half a full crown of fronds.  I'm physically now unable to protect the trunk and meristem with heating cables and insulation (like I've down so many winters in the past). So, now I will just have to let nature take her course.  However, they are calling  for a low of 32 degrees tonight and 31 degrees tomorrow night here in Lake Placid. But I might run lower at my place.

The coldest night I had last winter was 28 degrees. I got into my car and drove up on the ridge and into town.(Lake Placid). Believe it or not, depending on what part of town I was in, it ranged 10-12 degrees warmer than at my place! I documented this with my cell phone video camera as I drove, showing my location on my SUV GPS screen and also the temperature. This was a radiational cooling night with no wind. The air stratification was phenomenal. It was like the temperature rose 1 degree F for every 10 feet higher in elevation I went. I still have the video I took, and I might upload it to YouTube so anyone interested can see for themselves.

[Fishinsteeg234]

I spent the majority of today wrapping and prepping the best I could. Archontophoenix, Chambronia, Foxyladys, Veitchias, satakentia, Caryotas, pembanas, lanceolata, coconuts, teddybears, bottle palms, royals, mangoes, and others wrapped with incandescent string lights and then blankets. The wind tonight will not allow for my propane heaters or a close proximity bonfire to be effective in the yard. I added a small electric heater for the greenhouse. Wunderground is calling for 28 tonight and tomorrow, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few degrees lower. I’d rather prepare for the worst and hope for the best. These wraps will stay on until Monday when the low is back into the upper 30’s. I hope the palms will still breathe and not condensate too bad under the blankets to form any ice crystals. I hope the best for everyone who is going through this event. Good luck 

[pj_orlando_z9b]

1 hour ago, Walt said:

This is my near 20-year-old green Malayan dwarf coconut palm. Last winter it saw 28 degrees with heavy frost. It was near defoliated. After the 2022 growing season it managed to regrow about half a full crown of fronds.  I'm physically now unable to protect the trunk and meristem with heating cables and insulation (like I've down so many winters in the past). So, now I will just have to let nature take her course.  However, they are calling  for a low of 32 degrees tonight and 31 degrees tomorrow night here in Lake Placid. But I might run lower at my place.

The coldest night I had last winter was 28 degrees. I got into my car and drove up on the ridge and into town.(Lake Placid). Believe it or not, depending on what part of town I was in, it ranged 10-12 degrees warmer than at my place! I documented this with my cell phone video camera as I drove, showing my location on my SUV GPS screen and also the temperature. This was a radiational cooling night with no wind. The air stratification was phenomenal. It was like the temperature rose 1 degree F for every 10 feet higher in elevation I went. I still have the video I took, and I might upload it to YouTube so anyone interested can see for themselves.

Still looks great. 

[RedRabbit]

Here are a few microclimates I’ll be watching to see how they hold up:

- Anna Maria Island… Evidence of 10b/11a?

- St. Pete: Venetian Isles, Tropical Shores… How solid might they be at 10b?

- West side of Lake Tarpon… More evidence it’s a solid 10a.

- Tampa: Davis Island, Ballast Point… Warmest spot in Tampa?

- Orlando: Belle Isle… More evidence it’s really 10a.

- Winter Garden… Possibly 10a due to the lake?

- Jacksonville, east side of St. John’s river… Solid 9b?

- St. Simons Island, East Beach… Solid 9b?

- North Captiva / Useppa (if any stations are left)… 11a?

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by RedRabbit

[pj_orlando_z9b]

2 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Here are a few microclimates I’ll be watching to see how they hold up:

- Anna Maria Island… Evidence of 10b/11a?

- St. Pete: Venetian Isles, Tropical Shores… How solid might they be at 10b?

- West side of Lake Tarpon… More evidence it’s a solid 10a.

- Tampa: Davis Island, Ballast Point… Warmest spot in Tampa?

- Orlando: Belle Isle… More evidence it’s really 10a.

- Winter Garden… Possibly 10a due to the lake?

- Jacksonville, east side of St. John’s river… Solid 9b?

- St. Simons Island, East Beach… Solid 9b?

- North Captiva / Useppa (if any stations are left)… 11a?

 

We typically do best in Belle Isle on radiational nights compared to advective.  One thing I'm curious to see play out is water levels are higher due to Ian across the metro...does that buffer some of the cold tonight.  Also about Belle Isle, lake temps were almost 70F this week compared to 50s in Jan.  Will be watching to see how this plays out the next two nights vs forecasts.

[shminbabe]

Northeast Florida here,  Atlantic Beach, where it's currently 32 degrees and clear, with a breeze, in this very early hour of Christmas Eve.  I've protected my Archontophoenix Cunninghamiana; my Chambeyronia Macrocarpa; my two baby Alex's (sic)  - Archontophoenix Maxima -  that I grew from seed (purchased from a lovely Palm Talk member!) and planted the juvenile trees in the ground in October; and my gorgeous, mature Archontophoenix Alexandre King Alexander which is literally unprotected by any of Atlantic Beach's famous Live Oak trees and I'm unsure how it will stand up to what's coming. So my husband rigged a couple of heat lamps for that one, and also wrapped its trunk.  That's the best we can do given its size. We wrapped the rest up with sone sort of covering and I'm hoping for the best. Good luck to anyone involved this frigid-weather moment!