2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[JLM]

That time of the year is still several months away, so dont worry about it yet. But, why am I making this thread then? We have Invest 90L off the east coast on...*checks date*…. January 16th!

This Invest area is not expected to really do anything, and has been tagged with a 0% chance of development by the NHC today. Satellite data indicates that it *may* be a Subtropical Storm, but this is such a marginal case where it may or may not be that its best to just wait to call it anything until post season analysis. A lot of studying will go into this system im sure. 90L will go on to impact Nova Scotia and Newfoundland with gusty winds and rain.

Heres some satellite imagery courtesy of Tropical Tidbits from earlier:

[Quasarecho]

...and the oceans continue to warm and rise. I talk to my students about the flood walls & gates being proposed and built in coastal cities around the world. 

[Jimbean]

Those waters are way too cold

[JLM]

March Update:

The National Hurricane Center is making some changes this season, some of these changes were due a long time ago.

The first change is that now Invest areas will be labeled as such on the Tropical Weather Outlook. To my understanding, if it is for example, Invest 91L, it would be labeled as Invest 91L on the outlook.

Another change that is coming May 15th (TWO start date), is that now instead of 5 Day Tropical Weather Outlooks, they will now be **7 Day Tropical Weather Outlooks**. Yes, tropical weather outlooks will now extend an entire week into the future.

Colorado State University will release their hurricane season forecast in April.

[Brian M]

I'm sure their forecast will be "above average" like every other year followed by the updated forecast at the end of October 😜

[JLM]

2 hours ago, Brian M said:

I'm sure their forecast will be "above average" like every other year followed by the updated forecast at the end of October 😜

Looks like El Nino will be a factor, at least towards the end of the season. This season may be a front loaded season. How loaded it will be is TBD.

[SeanK]

On 1/17/2023 at 7:39 AM, Quasarecho said:

...and the oceans continue to warm and rise. I talk to my students about the flood walls & gates being proposed and built in coastal cities around the world. 

I haven't heard of any islands going under. And most "green" subscribers continue to live at low elevations. 

[bubba]

Quasarecho,

Please list with particularity all of the flood walls, and water gates that are being built or in existence to those of us who are mere useful idiots? I thank you in advance for your kind and honest response…

 

 

[SeanK]

One of the major news outlets ran a story last week on how climate change (a catch-all, non-discript phrase) is altering NC's Outer Banks. These barrier Islands have been changing constantly since the glaciers receded about 10K to 15K years ago.  We are currently still in a cool phase.

[JLM]

Please take the climate change nonsense elsewhere. This is a thread about the hurricane season, not politics. Thanks in advance.

[bubba]

Thank you!

[Quasarecho]

On 3/27/2023 at 7:39 AM, bubba said:

Quasarecho,

Please list with particularity all of the flood walls, and water gates that are being built or in existence to those of us who are mere useful idiots? I thank you in advance for your kind and honest response…

Venice Italy has already implemented a billion plus $ sea wall that lifts to block water from surge because of sea level rise. 

Miami is already planning for how to deal with rising sea levels and storms. They're kinda linked together thus the relevance to hurricanes.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/sea-level-rise-and-coastal-cities/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/u-s-sea-levels-could-rise-more-than-a-foot-over-the-next-30-years

 

[Quasarecho]

23 hours ago, JLM said:

Please take the climate change nonsense elsewhere. This is a thread about the hurricane season, not politics. Thanks in advance.

I posted info above (PBS & National Geographic, respectable sources that focus on facts). Climate change, while real, only seems to be politicized by an ignorant minority.  Sea level rise and warming sea temps will greatly affect those in coastal communities. Miami & Venice Italy are already affected and planning. Venice has implemented a sea-wall system.

[JLM]

10 hours ago, Quasarecho said:

I posted info above (PBS & National Geographic, respectable sources that focus on facts). Climate change, while real, only seems to be politicized by an ignorant minority.  Sea level rise and warming sea temps will greatly affect those in coastal communities. Miami & Venice Italy are already affected and planning. Venice has implemented a sea-wall system.

Regardless, it does not relate to the 2023 season. You could always make a separate thread about it, im not sure how long it will last before it becomes politicized by that minority though.

[JLM]

Forecast models are showing a stalled frontal boundary in the eastern Gulf into the SW Atlantic next week. Nearly all global models are hinting at low pressure development from the remains of this boundary, with overnight models generally focusing on the eastern Gulf. Great uncertainty remains, but if an area of low pressure does develop in the Gulf, wind shear would likely create a lopsided storm which would provide plenty of rain to the Florida Peninsula. This could very well be a tropical entity as well. Climatology generally goes against this, but given that most globals show a solution like this, it kind of gives it credibility.

This is something to monitor for now, but certainly nothing to stress over. Might i remind y'all that today is April 6th.

[PalmatierMeg]

4 hours ago, JLM said:

Forecast models are showing a stalled frontal boundary in the eastern Gulf into the SW Atlantic next week. Nearly all global models are hinting at low pressure development from the remains of this boundary, with overnight models generally focusing on the eastern Gulf. Great uncertainty remains, but if an area of low pressure does develop in the Gulf, wind shear would likely create a lopsided storm which would provide plenty of rain to the Florida Peninsula. This could very well be a tropical entity as well. Climatology generally goes against this, but given that most globals show a solution like this, it kind of gives it credibility.

This is something to monitor for now, but certainly nothing to stress over. Might i remind y'all that today is April 6th.

We can sure use the rain down here.

[Looking Glass]

8 hours ago, JLM said:

Forecast models are showing a stalled frontal boundary in the eastern Gulf into the SW Atlantic next week. Nearly all global models are hinting at low pressure development from the remains of this boundary, with overnight models generally focusing on the eastern Gulf. Great uncertainty remains, but if an area of low pressure does develop in the Gulf, wind shear would likely create a lopsided storm which would provide plenty of rain to the Florida Peninsula. This could very well be a tropical entity as well. Climatology generally goes against this, but given that most globals show a solution like this, it kind of gives it credibility.

This is something to monitor for now, but certainly nothing to stress over. Might i remind y'all that today is April 6th.

3 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

We can sure use the rain down here.

We lucked out last week with some rain on this side, but man, it’s hot and dry as a bone down deep.   A nice soak would be welcome.   

[JLM]

Models continue to show at least a rainmaking feature in the Gulf next week. The official WPC forecast shows an occluded front attached to the low, which would make it completely non-tropical. The forecast can and will change between now and next week. Below is the WPC 7-Day QPF:



The bulk of the rain is advertised along the central Gulf Coast region, but all of Florida is looking to get in on some rainfall over the next 7 days. Stay tuned to forecast changes.

[Looking Glass]

We had some nice rain today, and looks like a wet week for South Florida ahead.   A nice break from the hot-dryness down here.   I threw down some fertilizer and Bermuda and Bahia grass seed in the troubled areas of the lawn the other day to take advantage of the wet weather.  Also planted a lot of potted stuff, and hopefully the rains will welcome things into the ground.  

[JLM]

Looks like the low thats expected in the Gulf this week will not be able to detach from any frontal boundaries. Any potential for a subtropical system is extremely low as it stands right now. Regardless of designation, the impacts will not change. Heavy rainfall is expected, with 1.5-3 inches expected across the central Gulf Coast. Gusty winds may also be a possibility, especially at the coast. Gusts of 30-40 mph may be possible. Coastal flooding will also be an issue, with inundation of 1-3 feet above normally dry ground, particularly across portions of southeast Louisiana and western Mississippi coastal regions.

In the end, impacts may be similar to that of a weak tropical system regardless of whether it has a name or not.

[JLM]

On 4/9/2023 at 6:36 PM, Looking Glass said:

We had some nice rain today, and looks like a wet week for South Florida ahead.   A nice break from the hot-dryness down here.   I threw down some fertilizer and Bermuda and Bahia grass seed in the troubled areas of the lawn the other day to take advantage of the wet weather.  Also planted a lot of potted stuff, and hopefully the rains will welcome things into the ground.  

Please give an update on the situation down there whenever you can. 22 inches of rain has fallen at the Fort Lauderdale airport over the past 7 hours. 

[Looking Glass]

3 hours ago, JLM said:

Please give an update on the situation down there whenever you can. 22 inches of rain has fallen at the Fort Lauderdale airport over the past 7 hours. 

Whelp…. That certainly was a doozie….  

A big blob of red on the radar just seemed to hang out over the city all day.  

20+ inches of rain for sure… and fast.  Downtown flooded, the airport flooded, Broward General Hospital flooded, ambulances flooded out and needed to be towed, 500 pending EMS calls out around 2am.   Plenty of streets were overflowing, and cars were flooded out and stalled out there on the roads.  

I wore my sandals to work and carried my clothes in a bag just to walk in from the parking lot.  

Where I used to live downtown for 10 years, through some hurricanes, never flooded like today.  The usual low lying areas flooded out and then also some areas that normally do fine.  

Luckily the house here stayed high and dry.   Also, luckily, water drains very quickly here so by morning many of the streets will be just damp, but there will be a bunch of damage and cleanup needed after this.  

[JLM]

The 2023 hurricane season forecast from CSU is calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. This is slightly below the average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They are predicting a slightly below to average season because of a developing El Nino in the Pacific. El Nino's cause high wind shear over the Atlantic which will tear apart storms.

One thing to note is that this year will likely be a front weighted season. The season may shut down early this year as El Nino continues to ramp up. The reason for this is that as you progress through the season, storm origins transition from the MDR to the western Caribbean, especially as we get towards October. The western Caribbean is not looking to be as favorable for storms as it has been in previous years.

Something else to watch is the above average SSTs in the Atlantic right now. The MDR is warm, while the subtropics is cool. This is more of a classic SST pattern. Last season, we had warm subtropics. It may have contributed to the strange pattern of activity that we saw last season.

[JLM]

The climate models are causing headaches. The Atlantic might not be as shut down as some may think. June, July, and August may be the most active months of the season for the SW Atlantic. By the time we get to September, i think most storms will be recurving, but the first half of the season we will have to watch out for sure. Nothing is set in stone. Be prepared regardless.

The National Hurricane Center begins Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15th (6 days from now), although the official start of the hurricane season isnt until June 1st.

[JLM]

The NHC has gone back and taken a look at that disturbance that actually prompted the start of this thread, and has determined that it was actually a Subtropical Storm. It will not be named, so now our numbering is messed up for the rest of the season. Oh well. 

Do note though that just because we had a rando SubTS in January doesnt mean we will have a hyperactive season. This season is looking average to slightly below average at this time, with El Nino quickly developing out in the Pacific. El Nino causes increased wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico, basically shutting those areas completely down. However, with very warm Sea Surface Temperatures across the Atlantic, we may still see several fish storms. Also, if a storm manages to sneak west, we will need to watch those.

The NHC also started routine Tropical Weather Outlooks for both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific today. Hurricane season has started in the Eastern Pacific, but the Atlantic season doesnt start until June 1st.

PS: It might be worth watching the SW Atlantic/SE Coast over the next week or two. Nothing well defined right now but there is a *small* signal that something may try to spin up. This is a very typical development spot for this time of year and going into June.

[JLM]

NOAA has officially released their 2023 Hurricane Season Forecast. Heres the numbers:

They are giving a 40% chance of an average hurricane season, and a 30% chance for an above or below average hurricane season.

In terms of the amount of storms, they are predicting 12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. They are about 70% confident in these numbers. 

Some things that are causing headaches with season predictions is the different factors playing into the season. Right now, the tropical Atlantic (MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico) is ready to go. Sea surface temperatures are above average in these areas, and the water temperatures are already adequate enough to support hurricanes, and its not even June yet! Whats worse is that since we are heading into a -NAO pattern, it will allow further warming of the MDR and the Canary Current. Why is the Canary Current important to this equation? Well in short, it helps to reduce the amount of SAL that traverses the Atlantic during the early part of the season. The SAL was relentless last season, and put quite the cap on development even during the peak of the season last year. On September 10th, which is the "peak" of the season, we had NO DISTURBANCES active. Related to SSTs, the Ocean Heat Content is also adequate enough to support a storm for longer. OHC is basically how deep these warm waters go, and its already good enough to support hurricanes. Thankfully the Caribbean should be mostly shut down, because SSTs and OHC is really high right now, and it is a breeding ground for rapid intensification. 

Now with potentially less SAL activity (not 0, but definitely reduced), and with already warm SSTs across the Atlantic, i would not be at all surprised to see early season MDR activity. All that needs to happen is a decrease in wind shear at this point, and we will have the green light. I suspect we will have a storm or two in the MDR in June, how strong these get or where they would go would have to be answered when they are active. This is just my thoughts on that, of course there will be other factors at play that will determine short term favorability in the MDR.

Anyways, July into August may also be more active than recent years, it all depends on how the Eastern Pacific season is going by that point. At this time, there are no disturbances in the EPAC for the next week to two weeks.

As you have heard a million times already, it only takes 1 storm to impact your area to make it a bad season, as we saw with Ian last year. Be prepared BEFORE the storm hits!

Now for an ACTUAL tropical update, we do have a disturbance off the Florida east coast that has a 10% chance for development. This will most likely not be named, and the only reason it was marked by the NHC was likely for public awareness purposes, as this disturbance will bring impacts similar to a tropical system to the Carolinas and maybe parts of Georgia over the Memorial Day weekend. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected in those areas this weekend.

[SeanK]

Our local forecast accuracy is 50%, 72 hours out. The hurricane season is a tossup. I've read that El Niño will produce stronger W-E winds across the Gulf and Caribbean, thus producing windshear against westbound storms coming off the African coast.

Let's hope Central FL gets a TD moving across it dropping 3 inches of rain.

[JLM]

On 5/26/2023 at 9:32 AM, SeanK said:

Our local forecast accuracy is 50%, 72 hours out. The hurricane season is a tossup. I've read that El Niño will produce stronger W-E winds across the Gulf and Caribbean, thus producing windshear against westbound storms coming off the African coast.

Let's hope Central FL gets a TD moving across it dropping 3 inches of rain.

Not only does it correspond to stronger shear, but it also causes storms to recurve before getting too far west. We can still get big hurricanes during El Ninos, but they hardly ever come far enough west to impact the US. 

Now for an update, the NHC designated an area of interest lastnight, and has been dubbed Invest 91L. 91L is currently located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and has a 20% chance of development. This system will likely stay in the Gulf as it meanders around, and finally moves south towards the Caribbean towards the end of the forecast period. There is a Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for tomorrow to investigate the system, if necessary.

Here is what Invest 91L looks like currently. Some convection has been trying to persist over the low pressure area for the past bit, but wind shear is so strong that it keeps getting blown apart. Whats worse for this system is that theres PLENTY of dry air coming in from the west, which will wrap into the system. This is why development odds are low right now. If this system can overcome these challenges, which is unlikely, it could be designated as a tropical cyclone.



For the forecast, it is expected to meander around the eastern Gulf for the next several days before finally dropping south. This is certainly an interesting direction to go, because usually they go the opposite direction from this. 

For impacts, this system is expected to bring increased moisture to portions of Central and South Florida, which in turn will increase chances for showers/thunderstorms. Rain totals are expected to be highest in areas where thunderstorms typically form during the wet season. These totals could be has high as 1.5-2.5 inches.

[JLM]

What i said was unlikely lastnight has now come to fruition. Invest 91L has organized quite a bit today, and now has a 70% chance of development. A Hurricane Hunter mission is about to take off in about 10 minutes from the time of this post. Depending on what is found, we may see it get designated as a tropical depression or storm before the end of the day today. Regardless of development, this will really only be a beach impact, bringing elevated surf and rip currents to the northern and eastern Gulf Coast regions today and tomorrow. Rain chances will be elevated across the Florida Peninsula. Heres a current satellite image of this system:

[Silas_Sancona]

8 minutes ago, JLM said:

What i said was unlikely lastnight has now come to fruition. Invest 91L has organized quite a bit today, and now has a 70% chance of development. A Hurricane Hunter mission is about to take off in about 10 minutes from the time of this post. Depending on what is found, we may see it get designated as a tropical depression or storm before the end of the day today. Regardless of development, this will really only be a beach impact, bringing elevated surf and rip currents to the northern and eastern Gulf Coast regions today and tomorrow. Rain chances will be elevated across the Florida Peninsula. Heres a current satellite image of this system:

A 🔮 prediction of how your weekend will be spent:  

[JLM]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

A 🔮 prediction of how your weekend will be spent:  

Oh you bet!

[JLM]

Invest 91L has been designated as Tropical Depression Two. 02L may very briefly become Arlene before getting ripped to shreds by shear. Other than increased surf and rip currents at the beaches, direct impact is not expected. This will be one of those rare storms in the Gulf that will not hit land.

Here is the forecast track:

[bubba]

We have experienced out of the ordinary and extremely wet weather in coastal South Florida so far this season. What I have noticed, from a completely amateur point of view, is that the thunderstorms and wet weather that develop repeatedly in the afternoon and move from the inland areas are reaching our coastal areas with much greater consistency. The usual trend for our coastal areas is to be spared from the rain from these thunderstorms, blown back by the constant and rather intense east to west sea breeze. 

This normal pattern has not been the case commencing in May. This is an out of the ordinary pattern. Also, our rainy season usually does not start until early June. It is much earlier this year with the additional add-on of the thunderstorms reaching the coastal area currently with high frequency.

A specific example of this standard phenomenon in our area was the experience of two outstanding professional golf course superintendents, who I know. One was located in the western convergence zone, out in the Wellington area. Annually, he consistently recorded over 100 inches of rain a year. In PB, another outstanding superintendent, regularly recorded in the neighborhood of 30 inches annually. This trend is set on its ear this year. What do you believe this portends for upcoming hurricane season?

 

 

[bubba]

By the way, our coastal weather is quite clear in the morning to 2-3 PM in the afternoon this year. Inside all day is not an option!

[JLM]

Small scale patterns like sea breeze boundaries will not have any implications on Atlantic hurricane activity. I dont have an answer for why the pattern has been abnormal down there this year, as i dont actually know whats normal and whats not.

To see what the Atlantic season may look like, you have to look at large scale patterns, like the incoming El Nino and the strong +AMO. Other things like the -PMM can also have implications. Right now, one analog that seems like the closest match that we have to our current configuration is 1951. The 1951 season ended up with 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The bulk of the activity from that season turned out to sea, although there was a couple Caribbean Cruisers that season. Another season that might be a closer comparison to 2023 currently is 1899, which had 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes that we know of. There could have been more in 1899, but we will never know. 

There are many factors at play this season, so we are really flying by the seat of our pants here for 2023. This is probably one of the more uncertain seasons we have seen in quite a while. Be prepared regardless.

[bubba]

Agree. Likely a meaningless observation from a long time resident. I know many times the amount of  precipitation is dictated by the floating ENSO (sic) and has nothing to do whatsoever with anything else. Call it an anecdotal observation from a local who has been in the area long enough to know what is standard. Nothing more, and should be discounted accordingly by all experts. 

[JLM]

Until something gets into the 7 day range, i wont be mentioning much here at all and i dont want anybody else to post any model runs for anything beyond 7 days. All i will say right now is that conditions might become favorable for development in the Southwest Caribbean Sea at around the 10 day mark. Will be watching this small signal over the next several days, but i suspect there wont be much to come of it.

[Can't think of username]

My favorite thing to watch for in hurricane season is how much it can drop daytime highs because of sheer cloud cover, and in the notoriously hot and stable warm season of the Southeast US nonetheless.

What comes to mind is September 11 2017 - which literally gave some places in Florida and Alabama winter solstice-ballpark average highs of 17-18C, a full 1 1/2 weeks before the end of summer and a full 13-14C or so below the daily average highs. That's literally on the level of the well-known wild temperature swings from hot to cold and in between weather the Southeast gets in its cool season.🤯
September 30 2022 was also featuring this phenomenon - although it was reversed to early December weather in late September, meaning late autumn weather in early autumn instead of winter weather in summer. I hope this year's season will give 2017-level monitoring fun in that respect.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Can't think of username

[JLM]

Its official, NOAA has issued an El Nino Advisory, meaning that we are now in a state of El Nino. El Nino typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increased vertical wind shear. However, the Atlantic is in a +AMO state, which is a belt of positive sea surface temperature anomalies stretching from Greenland, curving down the east side of the Atlantic, and down into the Main Development Region (MDR). Atlantic SSTs are quite literally in uncharted territory. Like seriously, the Atlantic is ridiculously warm. We should be VERY thankful that there is a strengthening El Nino going into peak season, as it will put a lid on potential activity.

This season may be a season of fish, but do be aware that sometimes, even in patterns that support recurves, we can get things that manage to sneak west. Gotta stay on the lookout for that.

[JLM]

It is June, right?

The NHC has highlighted a tropical wave in the MDR, it has been given a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days. Forecast models currently indicating that if this becomes a notable storm, it will likely recurve out into the open Atlantic. If it develops but stays fairly weak, it may continue West Northwest and impact the Lesser Antilles. This is beyond the 7 day mark though, and theres plenty of time to watch this.