ENSO La Nina El Nino history & Forecast

[Banana Belt]

The chart shows equitorial Pacific temperature patterns for last 73 years.  Based on this data some evidence suggests the weather in North America for next 4 years could be similar to the 2001 to 2006 period following a 3 year La Nna.  At present the Pacific is changing from a 3 year La Nina to Neutral/El Nino pattern.

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)],

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[Silas_Sancona]

Here's the latest forecast "thoughts" from the CFSv2 and IRI. Note on both ..at least for now, neither are all that optimistic for reaching El Nino Status( At least +1C status ).  Warm Neutral is definitely possible though.





So, Anyone hoping for a transition into El Nino this year, ..it may not happen -yet-  ..just have to wait and see..

****That said, it is early.. Still have the "Spring Unpredictability Barrier" to get through.. We'll have a better idea of where things could go come June.

Additionally, would look through this excellent thread from Ben Noll on what clues to watch for / other important signs that may point toward El Nino later..  Lots of graphs / gifs.



Can also monitor how things are coming together ..or not,  here:  http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml     Finer detail forecast thoughts are often updated at least  2X's a week. Should be an update out today or tomorrow.

[Silas_Sancona]

23 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Here's the latest forecast "thoughts" from the CFSv2 and IRI. Note on both ..at least for now, neither are all that optimistic for reaching El Nino Status( At least +1C status ).  Warm Neutral is definitely possible though.





So, Anyone hoping for a transition into El Nino this year, ..it may not happen -yet-  ..just have to wait and see..

****That said, it is early.. Still have the "Spring Unpredictability Barrier" to get through.. We'll have a better idea of where things could go come June.

Additionally, would look through this excellent thread from Ben Noll on what clues to watch for / other important signs that may point toward El Nino later..  Lots of graphs / gifs.



Can also monitor how things are coming together ..or not,  here:  http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml     Finer detail forecast thoughts are often updated at least  2X's a week. Should be an update out today or tomorrow.

One other thing i forgot to add to yesterday's post,  Just because we might head into an El Nino ..or, as it appears for now, a lean warm neutral -of some sort at least- next winter, that doesn't necessarily mean it will play fair, so to say..

As has been demonstrated this year,  ENSO plays by it's own rules and ..if we can see an exceptionally wet outcome, for CA in particular, during an La Nina winter,  We can ( ..and have ) had dry and warm El Nino winters in the southwest / colder and wetter winters for the Pac. N.W. and other areas..

Here's a couple maps laying out all the El Nino Winter Temperature / Precip. composites since 1950.  As you can see, while there are some defining characteristics that can give clues to what an El Nino winter might  look like,  not all warm ENSO episodes are mild ..and / or wet.  El Nino can possess plenty of tricks up it's own sleeves.

All that said, the suggested precip. signal for warm episodes, moderate and / or strong ones esp.,  seem to be a bit more reliable then how temperatures might trend during the same winter.  That said, toss in whatever level of influence on each pattern which may be occurring in a warming world, and the suggested patterns for each episode become more variable / not quite as likely to "follow the rules", so to say ..

Temperatures:



Precip:

[UK_Palms]

While there has never historically been a quadruple dip La Niña (4 in a row), I would not rule the possibility out. I think there is a chance we could trend back to neutral and then go straight back into another La Niña again, without an El Niño. The most likely scenario is of course for it to trend neutral by March and then obviously entering El Niño conditions by say June-July however. It’s long overdue now. Although that may not actually happen. A prolonged La Niña period may also be the earth’s response to all the oceanic warming in recent years. That is one theory doing the rounds.

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Silas_Sancona]

May ENSO check:  Where ooh where could we be headed?...

Maybe greater than +3?? ..If you believe some of the more bullish the current CFSv2 " thoughts.. A +4 Nino would be pretty crazy if it occurred though.



Warmer and earlier climb compared to the last two big warm cycles for sure..






Still, no matter what, or what one might think,  no way to know ..where we go.. for sure. 

...Let alone what a major El Nino will bring, once in full swing.

Since it begins in 10 days, sit back, and watch the East Pacific Hurricane season ahead  for the first clues..


 

[Aceraceae]

The early '00s was a long but less intense El Nino than 97-98 and 2014 to 2016. It had a lot of mild winters in the NE US. Quad dip La Nina cancelled but a quick jump to El Nino is happening which could pass 2015 intensity, but would that more likely make it shorter than four years? 

[Silas_Sancona]

30 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

The early '00s was a long but less intense El Nino than 97-98 and 2014 to 2016. It had a lot of mild winters in the NE US. Quad dip La Nina cancelled but a quick jump to El Nino is happening which could pass 2015 intensity, but would that more likely make it shorter than four years? 

Tough to say for sure, but typically, warm ENSO cycles rarely last more than 2 years from emergence to dipping back into official La Nina territory.

That said, you can have a situation like the 1990s where each year wavers between warm / cool side of Neutral, until a sudden buildup to a big end ( ..in '97 )

Current phase of the PDO can influence such " long and drawn out" ENSO cycles too ..Not all that cold or hot ...until 97 cycle, during the last warm PDO phase, and the 3 year La Nina cycle we
just emerged from, likely egged on by the current Neg. PDO phase for example.. Obviously, other global circulation patterns influence things too.




What is more interesting in terms of longer term ENSO cycles  is what may occur later in this century, as the Pacific continues to warm more -overall.. Will we still see the back and forth between La Nina and El Nino cycles?  or will the back and forth sloshing about the basin eventually settle on one side or the other ( multi year / semi-permanent El Nino-like pattern, for example )

For the west coast, only thing stopping tropical storms from striking ...California for instance ( ...as legit tropical storms / Hurricanes ) is the ..typically pronounced SST temperature gradient between central / southern CA, and the area of the East Pacific southwest of Hawaii, ...not too far west of Baja..  For now at least, thsat Temp. gradient is often pretty strong due to cold upwelling from the CA. Current keeping warmer water further out in the Pacific at roughly the same latitude, from moving closer to / pooling right off shore.

If some longer term "thoughts" on the subject end up correct, that temperature contrast could lessen -maybe quite a bit- as upwelling off Oregon and California ( esp ) slows down / becomes a less significant influence, allowing warmer water to pool off along / build north along..  the coast and out into the Pacific. Less temp gradient over that area means tropical systems may be able to survive for longer periods / reach further north. ...Something which typically only occurs during stronger El Nino cycles right now.

Something like this may happen sooner rather than later, or be preceded by a more La Nina looking Pacific temperature pattern where there are still strong El Ninos, but their " ultimate potential " is tempered by a more La Nina looking set up -overall-. ..until the overall warming of the Pacific overwhelms that signal, triggering a longer term, warmer switch.

[Silas_Sancona]

A quick June ENSO update:

Now that we are emerging from the spring predictability barrier time frame, a look at how things look right now..

While all the talk right now is focused on the possibility of a strong El Nino ahead,  i myself aren't all that impressed by what i'm seeing currently..  IMO, having lived through most of them, a potential peak value of +1.5-1.79 is more moderate strength, as a pose to the 82-83 /97-98 monsters.. 

Not to say we're not heading for one, just not currently convinced it will pan out to be the " epic "  warm cycle some headlines are blaring atm.  Part of ..what looks like a downward shift in some of the current model guidance could be related to the persistent cool / cold pool of SSTs off California ..which may be / could temper this El Nino's strength, esp. if persists another 30-60 days.

We'll see how things progress over the summer though. Won't take much to change things..  Weirdo WX pattern over the U.S. atm could be an early sign of... / El Nino influenced.

June IRI update:



Today's look from the CFSv2 from Storm Surf..




 

[Silas_Sancona]

Start of July ENSO check...  Some things to pay close attention to over the next month:

Current CFSv2 " Thoughts"  ...Note the possible stall out in the circled area, and the ? mark going forward.. Hint: ATM all the talk of a super El Nino this time around, may be premature. Things may not proceed as had been suggested earlier..  *** Though updated thru today, data may be lagging just a tad ( Solid line vs. dashed line in the circled area )



Been watching the weekly videos by Mark Sponsler ( Beforehand apologies if i'm mis-spelling his last name ) over on StormSurf the last couple weeks.. This weeks video follows up on some thoughts he'd had last week regarding the distinct possibility that this year's El Nino may not turn out to be as robust as thought.. ..at least as things are looking for the moment.  Could change going forward of course..

*** Note: If not interested in surf conditions, skip on past to the 18 Minute mark of the Video ( Where the " Long Term outlook " section starts.  Encompasses the rest of it ).  Lots of great, easy to understand explanations of... / quick lessons on how to interpret the various model data used to track how things are coming together, ..or not.. or may later.   No hype, or under playing how things are looking  either..

This weeks Video update:
 

We'll see how things are looking at the end of the month..
 

[Silas_Sancona]

While extremely early to know how winter '23-24 may proceed..  I'm not all that excited by what early hints may be suggested by the current NMME update.. 

Does not speak " Super El Nino " language to me at all..   Call me " Bad news Barry " if you choose to,  but,  i like to live in reality  ..and the reality for this winter may be wet -at times, ..W/ the bulk of the coming winters' above normal odds precip concentrated into the January ..and/or Feb. timeframe -, ...but, for the moment at least, to me, this does not look like a repeat of last winter...

Oddly enough, today's NMME update seems to follow what the CanSIPS L.R. Models have been hinting at lately, Vs. what the  CFS  L.R. thoughts are stuck on..  Who will get it right????

Again, it's early.  Guaranteed, there will be tweaks to these maps going forward..  ....We'll see how the NMME's " thoughts " look come October..






November:

Precip:



Temps:





December:

Precip:



Temps:




January:

Precip:



Temps:



February:


Precip:




Temps:


 

[Silas_Sancona]

July IRI ENSO update..  





Watching this closely because, despite an apparent stall atm,  CFS upgraded it's forecast based upon a forecast upswing in Westerly wind activity ( which could generate more Kelvin Waves, thus pushing more warm water east, adding to.. / reinforcing the warm pool off Ecuador ) suggested from about now, until at least the end of August, possibly beyond. .. It is back in strong to very strong territory for the upcoming winter..  Skeptical / not sold on this idea just yet.  

We'll see what Mark thinks come his Sunday update Video.

[Silas_Sancona]

Lasted Storm Surf  Vid. update from Mark Sponsler  as we start August..  No video next week, so we'll see where things are when he posts the next ..in 2 weeks. August update from the IRI should be out around approx. the same time as well.   


As usual, skip the surf data portion at the start of the Video if not interested..  ENSO outlook part is a bit long this week but covers a lot of important points to consider..
 

Have to say, completely agree with his thoughts shared..  Having some serious doubts about where things are headed..  " Something - El Nino / -ish " ahead this winter?? ..yes..  Massively hyped " Mega Nino "?? .. don't think so..  for now.. 
 

[Silas_Sancona]

A much awaited ( ...and pushed back ) update... 

October IRI data:





Today's CPC CFSv2 plot  *** Added " Notes " discussed below ***



October update of the NMME " thoughts "..

Nov:







Dec:









Jan:







Feb:






Mar:





October Siberian snowfall extent data ( From this week's AER blog update ) For anyone wondering what Snow in Siberia ..in October  has to do with winters here in the states,  go and read the blog.. ( Judah Cohen AER Blog Update )






Near -term personal Thoughts :

** Yes, El Nino is in effect.. That said, and despite all the hype, i myself am not totally convinced the effects will follow the " classical " sense. 

** E Pac. Hurricane activity has been " meh ", imo.. Only Hilary has had any real effect on the weather here this year ..Should be seeing more remnants doing " something " here. No real threats for Hawaii either.

** October has been much warmer than last year here..  Pretty sure the monthly average for PHX ..possibly the state as well..  is outpacing every other leading-into-an- El Nino-Winter October as well.. While it should cool off a bit here next week, for the moment, November is looking warmer -much warmer than last year same the same time. We'll see...

** Don't care what anyone says..  Warmer than average Non- ENSO SST temp pattern in the N. Pacific / elsewhere in the N. Hem. ( ..and/or globally ) will likely influence the overall outcome this winter, on top of the " usual " factors like what the AO / NAO / PNA, QBO,  etc etc does thru the upcoming winter..



With all this in mind.....

** Compared to last year, i personally don't think it will be quite as wet, esp. locally..  Nor as cold, which could mean less snowfall -overall-, even if the region still sees average to just above average winter precip. ..  

**Don't get too confident about this being another year that adds a ton of runoff to Powell and Mead come spring..  CA. Reservoirs on the other hand should continue a winning streak..

Not impossible ..but unlikely... we'll see back to back super wet winters..

...If this year does turn out to be as wet ..or wetter... than last year out there,  that scenario could spell serious trouble since it wouldn't take much runoff to replenish what amount of water has been used since they were refilled last year..  Something to watch closely..


Quite possible this will be an " early retreat " year of what snowfall  falls, esp here in the Southwest. ..Looking at the " suggested thoughts " of warmer than normal temp anomalies, from next month - March.,  Just don't think snow will stick around as long as it did last year.    No doubt, that could change though.

** Greatest " Above average anomalies for rain / Below average temp anomalies could be focused more on the east / southeast / FL.  rather than the west,  esp. mid / late winter..

** I know the usual idea during a high end moderate / strong EL Nino is a " wet Cali. / Dry Pac. N.W.  but i'm not quite sure that is how things play out this winter.. Could this be another " Strong " El Nino year where most of the precip that would head into CA / the S.W. gets deflected north of the state more often than not thru the winter?

** Midwest / Plains is another " roll of the dice " area ..esp if the colder solutions suggested by the NMME pan out at any point this winter..

Again, these are just thoughts.. Any or all could be dead wrong..


There is a forecaster out there who is dead set on the western U.S.  experiencing what i describe as a " Joe Bastardi Sky is falling everything will freeze "  tin hat wearing kind of forecast for this winter ( Wonder if they're friends, personalities seem similar )  ..where we see extreme well below normal cold, all the way into Mexico, and some big freezes.. and the east roasts .. far flung crazy thought  but will toss it in the back of a junk drawer  - so to say,   just in case ...and because he'd nailed 2021's wet summer here.  

In a year ..err, trend, of weird weather surprises,  even the craziest of absurd forecast can't be totally erased from the realm of possibility. That said, dude's forecast for the Monsoon was a complete bomb that blew up in his face..




Longer term thoughts ( ..Well, hopes this far out anyway, lol )

**Can already see this warm ENSO cycle starts a steady, but pretty rapid decline sometime after peaking in the next month or two..  That could influence how next years' Monsoon plays out ( Hopefully in a good way )

** As noted on the current CFSv2 plot, light green mark i added represents the weird, off season " False " Monsoon- like pattern we saw last May.. Observed 3.4 ENSO region temps were ~somewhere~ in the +0.6 - +0.70 range at that time..  By the time we were crossing the +1.00 mark in July, ( Yellow mark ),  it got hot, and the first obvious clue this years Monsoon season was going to be bad could be seen in the forecasts.  the rest of the summer here  ..is history,  literally..

Obviously, it isn't just ENSO - related SST temps at a particular time that can influence everything..

Looking at what the same forecast plot is suggesting as we head into next spring,  after peaking sometime near January, note the steady decline in 3.4 SST temps, and where they could be both in May and July..  While any outcome is never guaranteed of course, ..and " just how quickly " El Nino fades will likely change between now and ..April,  if indeed we are near neutral, or below it  by late June / start of July next year, ..it could be a very early hint at a better Monsoon for next summer..  At least based on the plot below which has looked at the relationship between ENSO and the N. American Monsoon.. Not that this plot does not include 2020, 21, 22, and this year -which would be well below -50% of average across the board, except in a few spots in N. and Western AZ which some how lucked out this year..



Obviously, as the winter ahead wanes, will be watching factors like how quick any accumulated snow pack is to melt next spring / how warm it is around the same time, overall,  esp. compared to last year  for clearer " summer '24 " clues.  AZ / overall Southwest can't afford another summer as awful as this..





 

[SeanK]

On 1/23/2023 at 2:20 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

One other thing i forgot to add to yesterday's post,  Just because we might head into an El Nino ..or, as it appears for now, a lean warm neutral -of some sort at least- next winter, that doesn't necessarily mean it will play fair, so to say..

As has been demonstrated this year,  ENSO plays by it's own rules and ..if we can see an exceptionally wet outcome, for CA in particular, during an La Nina winter,  We can ( ..and have ) had dry and warm El Nino winters in the southwest / colder and wetter winters for the Pac. N.W. and other areas..

Here's a couple maps laying out all the El Nino Winter Temperature / Precip. composites since 1950.  As you can see, while there are some defining characteristics that can give clues to what an El Nino winter might  look like,  not all warm ENSO episodes are mild ..and / or wet.  El Nino can possess plenty of tricks up it's own sleeves.

All that said, the suggested precip. signal for warm episodes, moderate and / or strong ones esp.,  seem to be a bit more reliable then how temperatures might trend during the same winter.  That said, toss in whatever level of influence on each pattern which may be occurring in a warming world, and the suggested patterns for each episode become more variable / not quite as likely to "follow the rules", so to say ..

Temperatures:



Precip:

What happened 1957-1958 ?

[flplantguy]

The NWS office in Albuquerque released this summary of the summer weather pattern and why the southern US was so dry this summer.  It's focused on the monsoon but it applies to the whole southern portion of the country.  The shift being sudden was not normal but they say it will be more common in the future.

[Silas_Sancona]

🎵 ...What goes up, must come down 🎵 Ya' know the tune.. ( ...or at least should, lol )



Looks like some hints our rapidly evolving Warm ENSO phase may be about to have the rug pulled from beneath it.. ( Lucy, is that you ..Again, haha )  


...Per the following " Take w/ a grain of Salt Article "

El Niño on brink of 'rapid collapse' as world poised for new phase of weather (msn.com)




That said.. Can easily see the end creepin' in the ETA chart as well..  We'll have to see what this weekend's thoughts are from " Mr. Stormsurf " himself, if he's planning on another YT vid. before X-Mass.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

..Screen shot, Just in case the animated link doesn't linky linky..





Looks like were at the peak, and about to slide down hill on the CFSv2 Chart as well.  IF   things follow the suggested dashed line, we may be back at +.05 by the start of  ..or right after...  the start of April, similar to last year at the same time. 

I myself have a naggy itch telling me we may be headed just  below that mark before  April.  We'll see who is in the Ballpark when Baseball season starts.






Early of course, but... IF....  this plays out as suggested, could make for a very interesting Summer next year ..Not that every summer recently hasn't been already.


Mentioned this elsewhere but, here's a " fly by the seat of my shorts " look at how summer rainfall has played out here, and in Tucson following the collapse of the bigger,  " stronger " El Ninos. 

Tucson, Summer average 5.69" :








Phoenix, Summer Average 2.43"  :









Obviously,  no two years are alike, and, ..with as weird as things have been, this is just a general " what can  happen / has happened ," here at least.

Graphs from the past are fun to look at, but ..in this era,  ya' can't totally trust them ( All la, .15" all summer, at Sky Harbour this year ).   🤞, next summer is a nice, long  throwback to the good times.

** Because it was a solidly La Nina Summer, 2021's Monsoon totals were not added **  That said,  of course i Don't mind if they are surpassed next year,  at- all- ( Ahem, hint.. universe, lol )

[Silas_Sancona]

 

On 12/14/2023 at 1:11 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

We'll have to see what this weekend's thoughts are from " Mr. Stormsurf " himself,

Mark's thoughts: ** Remember, if not interested in the Surf forecast portion of the video, skip ahead to minute 23 to start down the ENSO - related discussion..
 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

For anyone curious,  A+++  analysis of this past years' EL Nino by the ENSO analysis master himself  Mark Sponsler of  Stormsurf....

Skip to Min 21 to skip the surf forecast if not interested in that portion of this weeks video..