For some, Florida drought is getting very "extreme"

[Looking Glass]

Down this way it’s been a typical wet season pattern now.   Every day it is predicted to rain in late afternoon or evening.  But forecasting is difficult for these random storms.  They will call for a 90% chance of 2 inches of rain, but that never comes…. The next day, 30% chance of 0.1 inches, and it pours solid for 2 hours straight.   

28 inches for the year, 17 inches this month, and most of that fell over just 2-3 days in a row.  

Still, getting 0.2-0.3 inches once every 3 days is enough to keep things moving and temper irrigation needs this month.  Can’t complain too much.  

[kinzyjr]

Overall, the monthly total will be roughly average.  The last two days both had rain chances of at least 50% and didn't put any drops on the ground.  A trace of rain hit us today so far, but I'll gladly take more.  With the Saharan Dust coming this way, that might reduce our chances when it gets here.

[D. Morrowii]

Received a good dowsing the last 2 days. 1.15 yesterday and 1.22 today so far.

[kinzyjr]

No matter what happens in the next two days, it was a much better month than May.  The statistics I recorded for May here:

[flplantguy]

The sand here is still hydrophobic under the surface even with slight bits of rain this week.  Way below the expected in my tiny spot this month, and i expect more of the same. It looks like a typcial pattern here is onshore light showers and nada the rest of the day as the seabreeze pushes in, but the storms have not been pushing back in the evenings. I wonder how much the urban heat islands mess with the patterns.

[kinzyjr]

12 hours ago, flplantguy said:

The sand here is still hydrophobic under the surface even with slight bits of rain this week.  Way below the expected in my tiny spot this month, and i expect more of the same. It looks like a typcial pattern here is onshore light showers and nada the rest of the day as the seabreeze pushes in, but the storms have not been pushing back in the evenings. I wonder how much the urban heat islands mess with the patterns.

That's an interesting question.  The generally accepted response is that areas downwind of UHI-impacted environments tend to receive more rain.  I've shared a few articles that I've read on the topic:

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/69728-urban-heat-island-research-and-scholarly-articles/?do=findComment&comment=1172228

Hope you get more rain.  Every time I look at the radar maps, I'm surprised by how often my location is yellow or red and there is no rain falling, and then the opposite where there's barely any green in the area and the rain gauge is changing like a gas pump filling an airplane.

[flplantguy]

Getting some today finally!  The setup has to be coastal, but i don't feel like i'm on the beach except the sand lol.  One good soaking can go a long way so hopefully our ditches fill up like all the ones in a mile in any direction lol.  I was out today and saw the difference, anything on a small sandhill is dry, but green in the low spots in my little area.  Warm season rainfall is below normal for my location, but this winter was well above some months too so its a wash but out of norm.

[RFun]

3 hours ago, flplantguy said:

Getting some today finally!  The setup has to be coastal, but i don't feel like i'm on the beach except the sand lol.  One good soaking can go a long way so hopefully our ditches fill up like all the ones in a mile in any direction lol.  I was out today and saw the difference, anything on a small sandhill is dry, but green in the low spots in my little area.  Warm season rainfall is below normal for my location, but this winter was well above some months too so its a wash but out of norm.

The way things have been trending, it does look as though many parts of the Southeast are going to under the threat of Summer drought conditions.

[RFun]

Just now, RFun said:

The way things have been trending, it does look as though many parts of the Southeast are going to under the threat of Summer drought conditions.

Anyway, the good news is that we have plenty of water available in the region, so we can give supplemental water, as needed.

[SubTropicRay]

7 inches (178mm) of rain in a little over 48 hours.  What a difference a year makes.

[SeanK]

Driest area thusfar is SE NM towards El Paso.

[flplantguy]

We had 1.18 yesterday but im jealous of the higher totals im seeing of 6 or 7 north and south of here. Its odd, but once the pipes are in and timers set up it wont matter as much since the water rable flows from the higher rains inland to the springs at the coast.  July means less collisions and more random rains so maybe thay will help.

[sonoranfans]

We had 0.75 inch yesterday the last day of june.  I looked back, this is the wettest june here for the last 10+ years.  13.9" in june is near double the typical june of 7-8".  Last year we got 3.1" in june '23 and that was followed by a whopping 1.1" in july '23.   I am happy not to be nursing wet loving palms in the heat.

[kinzyjr]

Finished the month strong here with almost 3 inches of rain to put us well over the average.  Very thankful for all of the days where it rained and cooled things off 15F-20F:

[SubTropicRay]

It's not July 4th yet 🤔

 

[flplantguy]

I can confirm the yellow here, even with popup storms the amounts are "meh" at best outside the one day i got 1.18 inches.  Enough for green but not a lot.  July has only just started, so im still hopeful and trying to keep my zen patient outlook lol. Just make Beryl the last monster this year please.

[kinzyjr]

They repealed the burn ban in Polk, but the SW portion of the county is still pretty dry.

[D. Morrowii]

Everything is still green here from 2 weeks ago but its hot and dry the last few days! Everything pops and goes west, rain barrels are almost empty. 

[D. Morrowii]

On 7/1/2024 at 6:02 PM, kinzyjr said:

Finished the month strong here with almost 3 inches of rain to put us well over the average.  Very thankful for all of the days where it rained and cooled things off 15F-20F:

@kinzyjr Where do you get the “climate normals” from? 

[kinzyjr]

1 minute ago, D. Morrowii said:

@kinzyjr Where do you get the “climate normals” from? 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/

Hope you get some more liquid sunshine to fill the barrels and keep the ground moist.  It doesn't take too many days of no rain for everything to dry out on the coast.

[D. Morrowii]

5 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/

Hope you get some more liquid sunshine to fill the barrels and keep the ground moist.  It doesn't take too many days of no rain for everything to dry out on the coast.

I hear that…Thanks for the link thats awesome! 

[SubTropicRay]

[flplantguy]

Im at just over 20 inches for the year so far and much of that was winter el nino rains. The story continues of being just outside the good rains and getting drizzle. Much of the area bearby has been getting a ton of rain, but my spot is the unlucky one this year too it seems. My little sandbar still has some soil moisture underneath though so im planting anyway and repotted a bunch if things to keep them happy. The first year i've had a garden here that didn't need a fungicide by the end of june. Last year was so hot my watering would cuase it too on what little i had started, but this year nothing. Yet. I keep waiting for the one big rainfall but won't hold my breath.

[kinzyjr]

At the halfway point for July, ~4.75in of rain.  Off to a good start and the rain has been more consistent this month.  Perhaps a few of the palms that got scorched in May will have a shot at a rebound.

[SubTropicRay]

The last couple of weeks have been anything but impressive.  It rains in the same places everyday ☹

[Looking Glass]

I don’t know if it’s “Saharan dust” or if it just feels like it, but here, 0.8 inches of rain for the entire month.  Back to bone dry, clear sky, and blazing sun and heat.  Classic “wet season”.   Back to irrigating like crazy.   I was outside pulling weeds yesterday, and was gasping like I just ran a marathon.  It’s brutally hot and dry out there.  I’m sure in the coming months we’ll get some crazy single day rain totals from storms, but in the end, whatever total there is for the year, will come mostly from a few scattered heavy rain days.  

Caribbean palms tolerate it well at least…

[SubTropicRay]

It rains and does not rain in the same places everyday,

[kinzyjr]

39 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

It rains and does not rain in the same places everyday,

Amen.  NW Lakeland will soon need to abandon cars for canoes while the area south of Bartow to Ft. Meade is practically a desert.

[SubTropicRay]

After a decent start, my area has slipped back into a dry pattern.  If last year's fiasco wasn't so recent, I'd say this year was the fiasco.

[sonoranfans]

3rd day in a row of 1" or more rain, you can almost see things grow.   The drainage ditches are now holding water for the first time this summer.  I have shut down my irrigation for the last 5 days and not reason to turn it back on in sight. 

[flplantguy]

I put in my micro spray irrigation over the weekend (my legs were sore from all the squatting🙄) and its rained every day since🤣. I told people at work that would happen and it has this week. Poured some peroxide into my little blue decipiens that are starting to have some issues, i'm thinking the sun they got may be too much but the spots could also be from heat. Both mean i think they will be grown in shade in the high and dry garden, maybe near the prestonianus and titan i have planted already. They are also doing better than before with normal spears and larger new fronds.  It may be still too sunny there too, but it also might be the only place i could get winter sun and summer shade (thats a harder combo than i thought if you want frost canopy too). I have also discovered my rain guage is not great and heavy rains disrupt the wind sensor on the tempest, so i will be getting a typical guage that i can look at direct like i always had.  It wasn't far off until the rain came down too hard, so i don't doubt it too much but a rain guage is not expensive either.

[kinzyjr]

Currently sitting at ~6.5 in. of rain for the month.  It will take ~2.2 in in the next 6 days to match our average, but after June was above average, sitting in good shape.  The average for August here is 9 inches of rain.  One plus has been the overcast skies giving the plants a break from direct sun and scorching temperatures in the afternoon.

[SubTropicRay]

I've had less than 3" of rain this month.  The ongoing drought is understated in this map.  It is still a thing...a thing I know now will be with us forever.

[D. Morrowii]

Ugh 1” for the month here…..grass is half dead….water meter is getting a work out

[Looking Glass]

1.9” for the month here….  Suuuucks….

[kinzyjr]

5 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

The ongoing drought is understated in this map.

Definite agreement.  Posts like @D. Morrowii, @Looking Glass, and @flplantguy verify it.  Meanwhile, they might as well put a temporary lake in NW Polk County.  You nailed it when you said it rains in the same spots every day.  They should start with a map completed colored for the drought and put little doughnut holes in it where it rains.

[sonoranfans]

40 miles south of tampa here we got another good rain yesterday evening, standing water rain.  the nearest weather station at sarasota airport says 0.45",  I'd say closer to one inch.  Strange how last year we had 8 inches annually through july, but this year june alone was 13".  East coast florida was getting flooded last year while we had 3" in june.  I have taken advantage of the rain and planted a few palms out including teddies, one 15 gallon C. fallaensis, and a 10 gallon chambeyronia hookeri.  Its looking like it will rain right now, but weather report stated 4-8PM is most likely for rain.

[SubTropicRay]

It feels as if I live in Seattle.  Every afternoon, I get a 5-10 minute drizzle.  It's usually a remnant or outflow from a nearby downpour which has again missed me.  My last heavy, sustained rain was June 17.

[D. Morrowii]

I got a little bump up in rain since last Friday. About an inch and a quarter over 2 days which will help out a bunch. The best shot of that, .81”, came from a tiny cloud that drifted over us with nothing else for around for miles. 

[SeanK]

So, There's some rain brewing around Hispañola headed to Florida Sunday.

• The Euro model puts it to the east coast, near Jupiter then up the Atlantic coast.
• The GFS model tracks it slower, entering the Gulf coast then heading NE from TSP to the Big-Bend area.

Any preference for model or tracking?