For some, Florida drought is getting very "extreme"

[JLM]

Looking at all available models, the major models now showing a stall in the NE Gulf to Georgia vicinity. A stalled out system spells big time rainfall totals, developed or not. Other models take it across FL and up the EC or take as far west as Louisiana. Loads of uncertainty in all aspects, but one thing is for sure:

[Looking Glass]

This is the time of year where we desperately need hurricanes and tropical storms, but hope for non-direct hits and lower end hurricanes.  Without them, it’s just desert-like conditions.  I’m doing triple irrigation and hand soaking right now and it’s barely enough.   Stuff without a lot of drought tolerance is pretty miserable.  The sand-soil here drains 36 inches per hour and is bone, bone dry within 48 hours in this heat and sun.  

[JLM]

Some of these recent model runs have not been my friend. Monitoring closely here, and the rest of Florida should be checking the forecasts from NHC and local NWS offices over the coming days too. Would not hurt to make sure your hurricane plans are ready to go just in case. It’s hard to trust anything in the Gulf in August.

[SubTropicRay]

This is not entirely representative of the current situation.  

[flplantguy]

Rain totals in some models are looking Harvey like with a stall.  Hopefully not that much but a good soaking for the state.  Maybe a drought buster and this version of the dry weather thread can be put to rest. Until next year🙄

[kinzyjr]

Here, my location ended the month with ~7.5 inches of rain vs. the 8.85 inches of rain on average for July.  My yard barely got a sprinkle yesterday, but the north side of town got a downpour.  Tuesday, I got a little better than half an inch while parts of US-98 and Sikes Blvd were under a foot of water due to heavy rainfall.  No complaints though since the overcast skies and frequent mist kept the plants happy.

That's Florida for you - if you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes or drive 5 miles and it will change.

Keeping an eye on the approaching system mentioned by @JLM.  The last two storms, Ian and Irma, weren't supposed to hit here and we got a direct hit after they came inland in SW FL.

[SubTropicRay]

16 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Here, my location ended the month with ~7.5 inches of rain vs. the 8.85 inches of rain on average for July.  My yard barely got a sprinkle yesterday, but the north side of town got a downpour.  Tuesday, I got a little better than half an inch while parts of US-98 and Sikes Blvd were under a foot of water due to heavy rainfall.  No complaints though since the overcast skies and frequent mist kept the plants happy.

That's Florida for you - if you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes or drive 5 miles and it will change.

Keeping an eye on the approaching system mentioned by @JLM.  The last two storms, Ian and Irma, weren't supposed to hit here and we got a direct hit after they came inland in SW FL.

You are in the rain belt 🤑

[SeanK]

On 7/31/2024 at 12:40 PM, SeanK said:

So, There's some rain brewing around Hispañola headed to Florida Sunday.

• The Euro model puts it to the east coast, near Jupiter then up the Atlantic coast.
• The GFS model tracks it slower, entering the Gulf coast then heading NE from TSP to the Big-Bend area.

Any preference for model or tracking?

So, this morning's prediction has it making landfall on the west side, good news if folks are hoping for rain.

[Looking Glass]

Hopefully you guys on the gulf side do better than us.  Looks like a bust here.  I was hoping for 5 inches, but so far just some sprinkles and wind gusts.  Looks like I’ll be adding water to the pool manually.  Steamy stuff though.  Last night it was 86 and humid as hell at 2am.  
 

[SeanK]

Current planned trajectory favors the west side. A big change from last year's drought.

[SeanK]

Current, 6 PM EDT Saturday.

[kinzyjr]

Currently at quarter of an inch for the day here in the highlands.  The overcast skies are a blessing with temperatures in the high 70s/low 80s vs. high 90s/low 100s.

[D. Morrowii]

12 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Currently at quarter of an inch for the day here in the highlands.  The overcast skies are a blessing with temperatures in the high 70s/low 80s vs. high 90s/low 100s.

Same over here just a little over 1/4”. The constant cloud cover, and peak humidity are a relief for most of the stuff in the garden at least. 
I hope all the folks up in the big bend area stay safe over the next couple days.

[Looking Glass]

Late last night had a couple of bursts of rain.   It was enough water things for a couple of days.  Looks like we might be hit in a few minutes with a little more.  

Tampa and a bit north has to be getting soaked for a change.  They are lined up for a nice extended sweep of rain bands. 

[flplantguy]

It has been raining at a decent pace since about 4 this afternoon, before that was hit or miss.  Its closer than forecast but no high winds yet.  Overnight tornadoes is what im concerned with now. But the rain is great.

[kinzyjr]

Just eclipsed 1.5" about an hour or so ago.  @SubTropicRay should be somewhere between 4"-5".  That should keep those thirsty plant babies happy for a week or so

[Matthew92]

The rainy season didn't fully kick off for me until mid-July, but after then it has delivered quite consistently. Only now we're starting to dry out again, and being on the west side of Debby is causing dry Northwest flow/sinking air to prevail (and thanks to the monster ridge farther west nosing in over the area). It's going to take a good several days for it to go away and have some Gulf moisture and pop ups return. 

I hate getting stuck on the dry western side of a tropical system. This happened with Ian and Idalia to an extent. Though with Ian it was coupled with a cold front that ushered in a period of over a month with no rain... just awful. However that was in September and so at least it is early enough now that I'm not worrying about going without rain that long. Should have a moisture return for around another month at least before cold fronts start moving through here.

[flplantguy]

Just over 8 inches here in 24 hours time. Way higher totals in the drought bullseye from last year but we all got a soaking on the west coast.  Im glad not much damage, a dead tree on my yard came down for me and thats it. More extensive elsewhere but feels like another lucky turn for the bay area.  Hope that continues as it heads northeast and the flooding isnt too bad.

[SubTropicRay]

9.25 inches of rain in 36 hours and it's still coming down in spurts this morning.  It is a drought buster but this topic can NEVER die.  After all, if a topic like "What's your yard temperature" 🤪can last this long, why shouldn't a topic with some recurring relevancy 🤣

[SubTropicRay]

By the way,  there was very little in the way of standing water.  The earth sucked up every bit and was asking for more.  It shows the severity of what we'd been dealing with the last 18 months.

[Matthew92]

Ugh.... Looks like we are in for a bad dry period here. North/NW flow from being on the western side of Debby will cause a continual surge of dry/sinking air from over the continent and from the monster ridge of high pressure to the west. This will also coincide with temps possibly in the triple digits. This will last until Debby lifts out around Friday. But after then apparently there's going to be a frontal boundary that moves in this weekend that will bring drier air behind it (though it remains to be seen how far south it will push... hopefully not south of the area). And apparently our area will be on the receiving end of hot/dry outflow from Debby as it pumps out. This is awful. We are supposed to be in our peak rainy season here. The NWS Mobile forecast discussion (attached) even gives little hope for appreciable rain through the long term period (through Monday the 12th).

Though since around July 13th, my area has had great rainfall/pop ups with Gulf moisture from the south, this dry air from huge ridges over the continent+NW flow (with trough farther east) just keeps interfering. This happened last summer/early fall. We would get a couple weeks of flow from the south/Gulf moisture but then for like 1-2 weeks at a time suddenly would get NW flow and dry continental air that would squelch pop ups and cause extreme high temps and stressed plants. With our fast draining sandy soil, this would cause many unirrigated plants to become extremely stressed. 

It's times like these that makes me want to live somewhere out of reach of dry/sinking/continental air and cold fronts such as the wet side of the Big Island of Hawaii near Hilo. I'm sick of hand watering/irrigation and looking at stressed plants. However, not to say that I know even places like Hilo can have dry periods and hand watering/irrigation will always be needed to an extent. It's just the fickle nature/inconsistency of the climate here that gets to me sometimes. 

Will be interesting to see how long this dry period lasts.

 

Mobile NWS Discussion Aug 6 2024.txt

[D. Morrowii]

We got 1.66” here through the whole thing. I was hoping for 3 to 4 inches but can’t complain. We have another slight chance for some afternoon storms out of this system today but I’m not counting on much. We’re at 21.8” for the year here at our place. 30” to go by December to be average. 

[sonoranfans]

We got soaked, overflow ponds in the area overflowed into a nearby stream.  This is a protective system for our dev but it worked like this.: streets overflow to containment ponds which sit 6-8' below road/lot level.  there is a stream on the outer border of the dev and the containment pond with a sluice inside it(dev side) that sits 4' higher than the stream. and overflows into the stream.  today they are one 2' higher than the 70' strip of now underwater land in between them.  There is a lot of water movement, way more than normal so its draining.  Very impressed withy the 14 1/2 inches of rain we got from Debbie over 3 days.  Driving up 301 yesterday, the road was clear but the parking lots of a number of businesses and entry roads (to 301) were flooded.  This is the most rain I have ever seen in my life, often raining so hard you cannot drive safely due to visibility.  My yard is mostly drained today from standing water and its sunny.  After a dry june(3.1" rain) we have been just hammered with 13.8" in july and now 14 1/2 inches in the first 6 days. of august.  No drought here now, palms love it but the ground is soft.  I can see that heavy rain could make it alot easier for the palms to get toppled.  This time we got all rain barely hit gail winds, I feel very lucky.

[flplantguy]

Still windy off the water at my place and all the rain soaked right in like mentioned above. Drainage ditches are mostly full but dropping fast in my area, but the foot of rain in Southwest Pasco did some damage. The last debby that hit here was a rainmaker too, i had ten inches at my house that day in st pete and over 30 in parts of pasco.  Nice drought buster, but here consistancy is also key to happy plants.  Im sure irrigation will be running again by next week too but the groundwater is higher now.

[The7thLegend]

My weather station recorded 13.3" of rain from Hurricane Debby.  Area ponds, lakes and rivers are full again.  Drought buster but a lot of run off and flooding from too much at one time.

[kinzyjr]

Current status of the yard: 8.6 inches of rain for the first 7 days of August.  That's most of our average 9.08 inches of rain for the month.  Here in the highlands, the retention ponds and lakes are full, but no flooding.  Out in the swamp lands north of town...

[D. Morrowii]

Those are some crazy rain totals you guys got over there! 

[SubTropicRay]

12 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

Those are some crazy rain totals you guys got over there! 

Like you guys last year. 

Now we have this.

 

[flplantguy]

I think the thread wont die after all then!  I would rather attend the drought funeral without the flooding after party, but beggars cant be choosers lol.  I feel awful for everyone in the Sarasota area going from extreme drought to flood so fast. Weather whiplash

[Matthew92]

The dry weather continues. Some minimal pop ups in the area last night (missed my location). Extended forecast still has dry NW flow and building high pressure squashing good chances of rain. Only minimal chance of isolated pop ups here and there.

The actual FL summer conditions (high humidity/Gulf moisture/plenty of pop ups) lasted only half a month so far (July 13th to around the end of the month at my location). Really hope this turns around.

[D. Morrowii]

Man, we ended up getting 2.4” the day before yesterday. A very nice dousing. 

[SubTropicRay]

Poof...just like that, a nearly a week has elapsed with nary a drop.  The dry conditions look to persist which will be good for Manatee and Sarasota counties.  As for me, I'm ready for another 2, 3 or 10 inches of rain.  Can't stay without rain long when you're temps are mid 90'sF daily.

[Looking Glass]

8 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

Poof...just like that, a nearly a week has elapsed with nary a drop.  The dry conditions look to persist which will be good for Manatee and Sarasota counties.  As for me, I'm ready for another 2, 3 or 10 inches of rain.  Can't stay without rain long when your temps are mid 90'sF daily.

Lol!  The thing that’s hard for people to understand about Florida sometimes…..  15 inches of rain in 2 days, that drains through the sandy soils over hours.  Then no rain and bone dry sand for 4-6 weeks.  Basically creates desert-like conditions most often.  But on paper it looks like wet weather.  It’s more like alternating quick deluge - long drought conditions.  

[sonoranfans]

2 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Poof...just like that, a nearly a week has elapsed with nary a drop.  The dry conditions look to persist which will be good for Manatee and Sarasota counties.  As for me, I'm ready for another 2, 3 or 10 inches of rain.  Can't stay without rain long when you're temps are mid 90'sF daily.

Yeah poof, we are just about back to normal, I turned on the 2x a week irrigation schedule again.  The mosquitos are out en masse for the first time this year.   

[D. Morrowii]

Yeps, a 1/4” every day over 4 months is waaaay different than 30” spread out over 3 days. 

[SeanK]

On 8/7/2024 at 8:42 PM, kinzyjr said:

Current status of the yard: 8.6 inches of rain for the first 7 days of August.  That's most of our average 9.08 inches of rain for the month.  Here in the highlands, the retention ponds and lakes are full, but no flooding.  Out in the swamp lands north of town...

I wouldn't be walking around in any water like that in Florida.

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, SeanK said:

I wouldn't be walking around in any water like that in Florida.

Me either, but there is a reason the phrase "Florida Man" exists.

6 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

Yeps, a 1/4” every day over 4 months is waaaay different than 30” spread out over 3 days. 

I think we'd all gladly take the former.  Plus the showers lower the temperature from our typical mid-90s to low-100s down into the 70s and make things much more pleasant.  Ten days into August, we've only had 2 days without rain on my side of town.  The top temperature has "only" been ~98F - much better than May.

[SubTropicRay]

Got a surprising inch of rain yesterday.  That's typically not unusual in Florida but after last year, any precipitation throws me off.

[SubTropicRay]

Got another .75" yesterday.  There is still a rainy season in west central Florida without a tropical system.  Now I've jinxed myself.

[flplantguy]

@SubTropicRay do you remember the 2013 rainy season? Did you get a ton that year like we did in largo? It was every day but two weeks spaced apart that summer, and large amounts too. I had no garden yet to water either🤣. I still wish for a season like that now that i do but im sure thats why it wont lol.