For some, Florida drought is getting very "extreme"

[kinzyjr]

The map coloring should expand and darken with rainy season coming to an end.

[flplantguy]

It seems to start later and end earlier up here, but winter gets more rainfall in general too.  Im hoping for a normal winter but the drought is concerning.  Now heavy rains will be associated with storms.  Im already planning my new greenhouse but still too early for a winter thread yet.  Maybe the next storm is weak and helps the panhandle🤞.

[SubTropicRay]

The rainy season on the west central coast, ended much too early this year.  It's been bone dry the last 2 weeks.

[flplantguy]

2 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

The rainy season on the west central coast, ended much too early this year.  It's been bone dry the last 2 weeks.

Thursday looks to change that, hopefully not a bad one but the forecast is not ideal. Crossing my fingers for everyone nearbthe possible path of the storm coming. Current surge forecasts are not looking good at all, ten feet possible at Clearwater and Cedar Key even more.

[SeanK]

Last update was 09/24. Have to wait for the mid-week update.

 

[Matthew92]

2 hours ago, SeanK said:

Last update was 09/24. Have to wait for the mid-week update.

 

 

I only got half an inch in SE Okaloosa county from Helene. It had been bone dry since Francine, and now it's bone dry again. Seems like it takes a monumental weather system (in this case Tropical Cyclones) to give us rain. Normal pop-up storm pattern has been stifled. At least though we so far aren't having the 1.5 month drought we had the last 2 years that lasts late Sept through most of October.

[SubTropicRay]

With the devastation from Florida to North Carolina, rain or lack thereof hardly seems important but here's the last update.

[flplantguy]

The next system may put a dent in that, but hopefully only some rain for them. Looks like a sheared mess that dumps on the peninsula too, but also not favorable to become anything according to the experts.  Just stay away from the damaged areas please.  We dont need anything else. My home was spared, but work is not so great in a permitting office where i can see just how bad it is for many people here and cant do much to help.  Anything else here would be impossible to handle, the area was not as prepared as was thought.  The responce has been great from the community though, every storm is like that thankfully.

[SubTropicRay]

[SeanK]

TSP to Naples may get another opportunity for rain.

[flplantguy]

Models go from tampa south to naples and no spot is a good one after the last one. Hopefully just rain this time but not looking good for that either today in the intensity models.  Backloaded hurricane seasons suck.

[SeanK]

TN Maps:

 

[SeanK]

GA Maps:

 

[Matthew92]

Got a little over half an inch from Helene, and then around Oct 3rd, I got another half an inch. Nada since then. Now the troughs and dry cold fronts are in full swing with dry airmasses and high pressure as barren as the Saraha desert. No rain in the forecast in the next 10 days. I fear we are going to be stuck in a dry pattern for awhile now. 

Hopefully soon, the pattern will shift so that the cold fronts will actually cause t'storms and rain when they pass through. We got cold front galore now, just no moisture. You would think that living on the shore of the Gulf of Mexico would mean something in getting more moisture/rain, but as long as the wind flow is out of the north (which it has been for most of the time for the last 2 months), the continental air reigns supreme. 

My community project of planting trees in the dry, sandy median of my neighborhood would be to no avail if it weren't for me lugging jugs of water to give them some life. Hoping for rainier times so they can flourish more.

[SubTropicRay]

Tampa now at 78" of precipitation for the year.  I could have done without the double whammy though.

[SubTropicRay]

October is the worst.

[kinzyjr]

11 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

October is the worst.

It's that time of year again.  The spigot gets turned off except right before a freeze ❄️

[Matthew92]

On 10/24/2024 at 7:48 AM, SubTropicRay said:

October is the worst.

Yes- when it's a dry October it can be brutal. Right now, even native sand pine trees in the area are starting to have the lower needles turn yellow they're so stressed. I had expressed my frustration to a college professor of mine (of natural sciences) about this drought (he has lived in the area for about 30 years), and he matter of factly said how October is our driest month and that we usually go without rain the whole month. I guess we had been spoiled in some previous years such as 2017, 2018, and 2020, and 2021. 2017 we had hurricane Nate bring many inches of rain in early October. 2018 had more of an open path to Gulf moisture and rain from the south (which eventually led to Michael where we got rainfall from the outer part of the storm), 2020 had plenty of Gulf moisture influence (getting rain on the east side of Hurricane Zeta in late October), and 2021 had a few 1+ inch rain events during the month. 

Also another year we had heavy rain (not tropical storm related) in October was 2007, where mid-month I recall our 6inch capacity rain gauge filled up twice in a 24hr. period. 

At the moment, we are starting to compete with the horrible Fall 2016 drought, where we went no kidding almost 2 months without rain. If I remember right we went pretty much all October without rain, and then didn't get rain again until almost December. I literally saw 40+ ft. sand pines in our area turn rust/brown color and straight up die.

[RFun]

On 10/25/2024 at 10:14 AM, Matthew92 said:

Yes- when it's a dry October it can be brutal. Right now, even native sand pine trees in the area are starting to have the lower needles turn yellow they're so stressed. I had expressed my frustration to a college professor of mine (of natural sciences) about this drought (he has lived in the area for about 30 years), and he matter of factly said how October is our driest month and that we usually go without rain the whole month. I guess we had been spoiled in some previous years such as 2017, 2018, and 2020, and 2021. 2017 we had hurricane Nate bring many inches of rain in early October. 2018 had more of an open path to Gulf moisture and rain from the south (which eventually led to Michael where we got rainfall from the outer part of the storm), 2020 had plenty of Gulf moisture influence (getting rain on the east side of Hurricane Zeta in late October), and 2021 had a few 1+ inch rain events during the month. 

Also another year we had heavy rain (not tropical storm related) in October was 2007, where mid-month I recall our 6inch capacity rain gauge filled up twice in a 24hr. period. 

At the moment, we are starting to compete with the horrible Fall 2016 drought, where we went no kidding almost 2 months without rain. If I remember right we went pretty much all October without rain, and then didn't get rain again until almost December. I literally saw 40+ ft. sand pines in our area turn rust/brown color and straight up die.

Sounds pretty rough.  I hope November will bring a decent amount of rain.

[kinzyjr]

There was a short, unexpected rain storm today and it is near the end of October.  That makes it a good time to calculate how much rain thus far as November and December are often very dry.  Currently, my annual total is ~73 inches of rain.  This is likely a record, even in years with multiple named storms.

[SubTropicRay]

Not a drop of rain since Milton which was 21 days ago.  It's just October being October.  

[SubTropicRay]

Not a good sandwiching job

[kinzyjr]

11 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Not a good sandwiching job

Who did you tick off? 

Oh well, at least it wasn't as bad as last summer.

[SubTropicRay]

No rain since Milton caused Noah's Ark-like building 4 weeks ago,  The Arks are beached now in somebody's yard.  Not a drop since getting 5000000 mm of rain in early October.  Had Milton not happened, it may have been a record dry October.  Who knew we'd want water after 7 feet of surge and a month's worth of rain in 5 hours.  Hope I'm not coming across too bitter 😝😡

[kinzyjr]

2 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

No rain since Milton caused Noah's Ark-like building 4 weeks ago,  The Arks are beached now in somebody's yard.  Not a drop since getting 5000000 mm of rain in early October.  Had Milton not happened, it may have been a record dry October.  Who knew we'd want water after 7 feet of surge and a month's worth of rain in 5 hours.  Hope I'm not coming across too bitter 😝😡

At least the Brahea seeds I'm getting you for Christmas won't go to waste 🏜️

[Matthew92]

Got 0.3 in a few days ago (which was groundbreaking since it was the first rain since late September!). Since then my location has gone through 2 full days of moderate to high rain chances only to watch it skirt all around (although Pensacola/Milton got plenty). Incredibly frustrating. Back to copious hand watering.

What's especially frustrating is that the atmosphere is plenty humid with clouds all around (which feels weird after Arizona-type humidity the whole month of October): there's just no forcing mechanism to cause significant widespread convection/storms.

It was also very disappointing to see Hurricane Rafael's track move away from the north Gulf coast as I thought we were finally going to get the relief we needed (that original forecast had it weaken a lot too so it wasn't like it was going to be a strong hurricane here or anything). 

Except for 2016, this has been the most frustrating late summer/fall rain-wise in the last 15yrs here.

[flplantguy]

So mother nature isnt listening and the models are picking up on another storm recurving sharply over florida around the 21st. Varying strenghts with the options of nature coast to naples, trop storm to hurricane.  November feels like september now.

[Matthew92]

Outer parts of the remnants of Raphael (with interaction with some other pieces of energy to the north over land) is contributing to a wonderful rain event here! Over an inch overnight and up to 2.00 inches at this point. What an unexpected delight!

The reign of terror from the drought is alleviated at this point. And looking ahead, this pattern of stubborn high pressure in the Eastern US looks to be breaking down. However, with this change will come the threat of cold/freeze events.

[JLM]

On 11/11/2024 at 12:23 PM, Matthew92 said:

Outer parts of the remnants of Raphael (with interaction with some other pieces of energy to the north over land) is contributing to a wonderful rain event here! Over an inch overnight and up to 2.00 inches at this point. What an unexpected delight!

The reign of terror from the drought is alleviated at this point. And looking ahead, this pattern of stubborn high pressure in the Eastern US looks to be breaking down. However, with this change will come the threat of cold/freeze events.

I am now sitting at just over 2.5" for the month so far, which is miles better than October! Seeing model trends on PTC 19 today has given some extra hope in terms of drought. We will see how it goes over the next week. The Canadian model was by far the most bullish solution on rainfall here dumping 6-12" across the area in association with PTC 19. This will definitely change, but the rainfall/flooding threat will be present for whoever ends up stuck in between 19 and the approaching cold front.

And speaking of cold front, that is looking to be the start of a potentially multi-night frost/freeze event for the northern Gulf Coast. I am monitoring that closely.

[SubTropicRay]

It grows.....

[flplantguy]

Rain forecast flopped like it usually does after october. A tenth of an inch, which is a tenth of what was forecast.

[Matthew92]

Got 3.00in yesterday from the remnants of Sara + some energy ahead of a cold front here. I expect the drought map to change quickly here.

[Looking Glass]

We got a lot of rain in early October, but since then, essentially nothing.  The trees and shrubs are doing ok with a lot of extra watering, but the lawn is hopeless.  Even hand watering dry spots and double irrigating isn’t enough.  It’s dry sand…. All the way down.   Hoping for something tonight, but I doubt it.  

[D. Morrowii]

We got an inch here in November so far. It was spread out over 3 separate days earlier this month but it helped. Doesn’t feel like dry season just yet. 

[kinzyjr]

It was an overall wet year after the May drought here.  The usual dry, cool November is coming on quick.  We were supposed to get measurable rain today, until we didn't.  Either way, now to keep on the lookout for cold fronts.

[SubTropicRay]

No measurable rain since October 9th here.

[SubTropicRay]

No color spectrum grows...

[SubTropicRay]

SoFla getting in on the action.

[Looking Glass]

11 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

SoFla getting in on the action.

No real rain since early October here.  At least in cooler weather the irrigation holds for a couple of days.  Man it’s dry though.   Some stuff is happy in the cooler weather. 

[SubTropicRay]

Big problems on the horizon.