Southern Hemisphere growing season 23/24

[Tyrone]

It didn’t hit 30C. It just made it to 28C but the dewpoint was 20.5C and sat around 20C all day. Really muggy and hot in the sun. Anyway I didn’t waste a Sunday arvo and planted 21 Archontophoenix purpurea in one area.. It’s planting time. I need another beer. 

[Foxpalms]

10 hours ago, Tyrone said:

It didn’t hit 30C. It just made it to 28C but the dewpoint was 20.5C and sat around 20C all day. Really muggy and hot in the sun. Anyway I didn’t waste a Sunday arvo and planted 21 Archontophoenix purpurea in one area.. It’s planting time. I need another beer. 

That is going to look very impressive once they get larger.

[Tyrone]

Yesterday was a complete contrast to Sunday and it looks like the same today. The min and the max were virtually the same around 17,18C with high humidity and drissle on and off continually. Much like being in the clouds at 1000m in the cool tropics. I’d like to see some sun again. It’s too mild and damp even though the official rainfall stays at zero. 

[Tyrone]

The long range forecast for November was for warmer and drier than normal. So far that has been correct. We are about 2C warmer overall than we normally are now and rainfall has been negligible. However it doesn’t mean there is no moisture and everything is blue skies and dry as a chip. The moisture is all in the air. It has been rare to see the sun. The humidity has been through the roof. The lowest rh figure for any time this far into November is 58%. Most of the time it’s been in the 80-90% zone. The easterlies are bringing all the moisture out of the Great Australian Bight. With a bit of irrigation the palms are doing well and opening spears everywhere. 

[Tyrone]

It looks like we are in a stuck weather pattern for the next 10-14 days with constant easterlies and drissle with thick clouds all coming off the Bight. A bit drab and monotonous, monotonous, monotonous. Did I say monotonous? There’s a high stuck in the Bight and the hot interior is creating a near stationary low pressure system to the north so it’s just pumping cool humid air with gusty wind over the south coast. Lately nights have been around 14C and it Max’s out in the 18,19C range with drissle on and off. The fire is back on in the house. Yesterday’s max was 18C but that was just a blip. It sat around 16C most of the day and the gusty winds just made it feel colder. If this is what an El Niño summer looks like………

Its raining now and we had thunderstorms last-night that are meant to hang around until Wednesday. 

[Tyrone]

Well it looks like that by tomorrow we may go back into a slight warming trend. By Wednesday it’s meant to be up to 27C. This week we haven’t cracked 20C once. It’s been mostly around 18C with nights in the mid teens with rain or drizzle. So not much difference between night and day. The thunderstorms gave us around 20mm which was nice. The stream in my property began to flow again. I’m totally looking forward to mid to high 20s mid teens at night and some sun for once. 

[Tyrone]

Going for 27C today with clear skies which is nice but still stuck in a wind tunnel with non ending easterlies that just can’t quit it. I think next Wednesday they stop before they return Thursday again and just keep going on and on and on. 

[tropicbreeze]

Only a week of November to go and the weather forecast is looking a lot better than it did at the start of the month. Up to date the average minimum has been 25, and the average maximum 36. A nice drop compared to last month.

And with the sun getting further to our south there's a little less sting to it. Though not a lot really, but with the cloudier conditions there is a difference.

The big change is the rain coming in. Only isolated falls and patchy over the region but it's finally arrived. Up to today the month is running at 98% of average rainfall (81% of total month's average). And for this wet season, up to today, it's running at 62% of average.

Everything is greening up. Many things that just a few weeks back looked like dry twigs or sticks are leafing out now. However, unfortunately a lot of plants have already been eaten out of existence by wallabies. But with everything starting to grow out bush there should be less pressure on the garden.

[PalmCode]

20c and cloudy here today. Haven't really  had much rain over a couple weeks now, which is great. But it looks like we might get some early next week thats a good balance.

Iv'e been worried about my 30 + year old Kauri (Agathis austalis) for  couple years now. Multiple branches suddenly turn brown and fall off. I thought it was because of previous summer droughts or even die back. Just inspected it and turns out the damage was caused by pin hole borers. So I just pulled of burnt all the dying branches and burnt them, hopefully that will help stop them.

[tropicbreeze]

We seem to be getting our wet season now. A few big falls during November brought the rainfall for the month to just above average. Overall though the rain so far is running at 80% of average. But it only takes a few well aimed storms to make a big difference. Yesterday heading home ran through one, rain so heavy hard to see the road. The wind was bringing large branches down, fortunately too heavy to be blown out onto the road. My car did get hit by smaller ones. Within about 5 kms of home the storm died off. Still, got 10.2 mm out of it. Middle of the storm would have been >50 mm. Average maximum temp for November was down to 36.

Forecast for December is looking reasonable, but monsoon isn't forecast until January.

[Tyrone]

Summer got turned on today. I recorded a temp of 30.5C with 71%RH which is a dewpoint of 22C. Sweaty. I was up in Perth last weekend in 40C heat filling a 6m3 skip bin with rubbish and it didn’t feel as hot as today because the air was dry in comparison. 
The palms are in overdrive. I’ve got Bangalows turning both oldest leaves brown at once as they’re eager to get growing. 

[PalmCode]

19c and raining today. Good for the garden. Archontophoenix Purpurea and droopy Hedyscepe are just starting to open thier new growth spears.

[tropicbreeze]

After forecasting a late start to the monsoon and fewer cyclones, Jasper turns up early. It's just about ready to cross the coast around Port Douglas. Two of the three models I'm watching are starting to make a dire prognosis, and one has the whole thing fizzle as virtually a non-event (by comparison).

One scenario is that the system will intensify along the NT north coast and by Tuesday (tomorrow) week it will be directly over Darwin. The next day it will be pushing off the coast into the JB Gulf with winds  gusting up around  190 KPH before making landfall at the bottom of the Gulf.

The next scenario has it tracking a little more north and passing directly over the Tiwi Islands with roughly similar intensity, then west into the Indian Ocean.

And the third scenario, just in time for Christmas, is that the system fizzles in the Gulf of Carpentaria and tracks south as a tropical depression. Let's hope Santa makes it into Darwin this year. But a week is a long time in the life of  cyclone, it'll be interesting to see how much the models change during the week.

[Tyrone]

22 hours ago, tropicbreeze said:

After forecasting a late start to the monsoon and fewer cyclones, Jasper turns up early. It's just about ready to cross the coast around Port Douglas. Two of the three models I'm watching are starting to make a dire prognosis, and one has the whole thing fizzle as virtually a non-event (by comparison).

One scenario is that the system will intensify along the NT north coast and by Tuesday (tomorrow) week it will be directly over Darwin. The next day it will be pushing off the coast into the JB Gulf with winds  gusting up around  190 KPH before making landfall at the bottom of the Gulf.

The next scenario has it tracking a little more north and passing directly over the Tiwi Islands with roughly similar intensity, then west into the Indian Ocean.

And the third scenario, just in time for Christmas, is that the system fizzles in the Gulf of Carpentaria and tracks south as a tropical depression. Let's hope Santa makes it into Darwin this year. But a week is a long time in the life of  cyclone, it'll be interesting to see how much the models change during the week.

Yeah I’ve been watching what it does too after hitting qld. It could very well get into the Indian Ocean and track down the west coast. It’s happened before. 

[tropicbreeze]

Calm before the storm

"A" storm" but not "The" storm

 

Well, the models are telling a different story to the other day.

The scenario one model has the remains of Jasper cross the GOC and the north east tip of Arnhem Land as a tropical depression. It moves out part over land and mostly over water but not being able to do much until it reaches above the Tiwi Islands. There it's expected to start ramping up a bit, but that's the end of the model run.

The scenario two model follows much the same path, slightly more north then stalls a bit while ramping up near the Tiwis.

The scenario three model which saw a fizzle in the GOC starts the same as before but then has it redeveloping in the northern GOC just east of Nhulunbuy. It then hits Nhulunbuy as a cat 1 or possibly 2 on Thursday/Friday next week.

Probably a lot of rain here regardless. At least we get our Santa Run done before it all happens. We're doing that on the prior Sunday.

 

[Tyrone]

Well Jasper dumped around 2000mm onto Cairns and surrounds, stalling over land. 
 

Down here we are back to unending easterlies and clouds. We went from having maximums 2C above average in November to now being below average in December at least during the day. We haven’t had anything as warm as 30C since around mid October. 

[cbmnz]

I haven't posted for ages mainly as have been fortunate to have nothing unusual or extreme going on with the weather. Bangalow double getting some size on now. The potted Baueri planted this time last year sailed though first winter in ground with no damage whatsoever. Its replacement in the pot/position is growing so fast will have to plant it out in a year or so also. One banana stem seemed to get choked so I cut it , which seemed to work initially but it's been mucking around since start of November.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by cbmnz

[cbmnz]

Not too worried as the banana has plenty of other stems and this one is trapped under the roof also. 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by cbmnz

[cbmnz]

April 2023 to now.

[cbmnz]

28 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

Well Jasper dumped around 2000mm onto Cairns and surrounds, stalling over land. 

Saw a bit of that on the news and on YouTube, looked awful.

[Tyrone]

23 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Saw a bit of that on the news and on YouTube, looked awful.

Worst flooding for that area in a century. I suppose more stories will come out as they finally establish contact with those who have been cut off. I imagine the Bloomfield track through the Daintree rainforest may be destroyed in places. The fully bitumised Palmerston Highway looked cut to bits, so the Bloomfield track which was dirt from Cape Tribulation north must have turned into a raging river in places. 

[Tyrone]

23 hours ago, cbmnz said:

April 2023 to now.

Your palms are growing very quickly. I’m envious of your blue sky too. 

[cbmnz]

On 12/21/2023 at 12:08 PM, Tyrone said:

Your palms are growing very quickly. I’m envious of your blue sky too. 

Far from every day has been like that.

[Tyrone]

Well El Niño was predicted to bring a hot summer. Instead I reckon I’ve seen the coolest start to summer in my life. Spring started with a promise of blistering heat but with the unending easterlies Novembers top temp was 28C. Septembers top temp was 31.1C and October 34.7C. December has continued the November cooling trend and the max temp recorded was 27.1C. The easterlies are unrelenting and when they get really vigorous snap off branches and debris goes everywhere. With the easterlies comes a layer of marine cloud that just doesn’t clear. It’s rare to see the sun. It was great to be in Perth for a few days to see some blue sky, sunshine and warmth. Today we will be lucky to get to the 24C forecast. It’s cloudy, windy and drissling on and off and about 19C at the moment. Really mild stuff. On the positive note nothing is getting sun burnt. 

[PalmCode]

Been warm and humid here last week, it was 20c at 1am the other night. Todays a bit cooler thanks to south west winds.

[cbmnz]

Got the flag leaf about 6 weeks eailier in the Summer than have had before. Maybe this time an edible bunch will result.

[tropicbreeze]

After all the to-ing and fro-ing of the models with Jasper it decided to sit in one spot and dump all its rain there, on the Daintree. But for the rest of us it's been a long hot dry spell. The remnants of Jasper moved into the GOC and dissipated. Meantime we got sunny skies and hot blazing sun, although humidity stayed high. A lot of nights at midnight are still around 30 degrees with humidity at 90%. Daytime the "feel like" (or apparent) temperature was 42+. From December being a high rainfall month when the water table gets recharged we only got 40% of average. Some places got isolated storms but that was like winning Lotto, good if you got it.

The weather bureau is looking to a better scenario for January but the models are showing much the same old same old for the next 10 days (not that they're infallible though). It's not that we need a Jasper Daintree situation. That only brings erosion and run off without much water table recharge.

Average maximum for December was 35.7 degrees, kept down by the bit of rain and cloud cover earlier in the month. Today's forecast is 39, apparent temperature is already 43.1.

[greysrigging]

TODAY:
A lot of chat around today about how atrocious the conditions were in and around Darwin.....

Was it really that bad ?

HELL YEAH IT WAS !!

As bad as I can recall in 44 years here ( but then again weather memories are a bit suss in Australia in general and the Top End in particular....

After a record breaking overnight min of 29.9c ( for Jan ), the Airport topped out at 35.3c today, slightly down on the 36c forecast ( that's a 'fail' BoM - hehe )

But the combination max temps and dew points was/is the kicker for today's conditions.

I don't really do the whole 'feels like' thing that the BoM publishes.... but today really did 'feel' crappy !

Housework in a 35c indoor temp cleaning the bathroom scrubbing skid marks off the dunny ... can it be worse ??

And then mowing the grass ? FFS its been a crook day climatically....

The bloke who invented beer is a dead set legend.... as is the bloke who invented refridgeration...

Here's some figures for your perusal of this arvo's conditions....

BRING ON THE MONSOON !!

[Tyrone]

13 hours ago, greysrigging said:

TODAY:
A lot of chat around today about how atrocious the conditions were in and around Darwin.....

Was it really that bad ?

HELL YEAH IT WAS !!

As bad as I can recall in 44 years here ( but then again weather memories are a bit suss in Australia in general and the Top End in particular....

After a record breaking overnight min of 29.9c ( for Jan ), the Airport topped out at 35.3c today, slightly down on the 36c forecast ( that's a 'fail' BoM - hehe )

But the combination max temps and dew points was/is the kicker for today's conditions.

I don't really do the whole 'feels like' thing that the BoM publishes.... but today really did 'feel' crappy !

Housework in a 35c indoor temp cleaning the bathroom scrubbing skid marks off the dunny ... can it be worse ??

And then mowing the grass ? FFS its been a crook day climatically....

The bloke who invented beer is a dead set legend.... as is the bloke who invented refridgeration...

Here's some figures for your perusal of this arvo's conditions....

BRING ON THE MONSOON !!

That’s some oppressive dewpoints you got there. That would melt the most heat hardened person. 

[Tyrone]

17 hours ago, tropicbreeze said:

After all the to-ing and fro-ing of the models with Jasper it decided to sit in one spot and dump all its rain there, on the Daintree. But for the rest of us it's been a long hot dry spell. The remnants of Jasper moved into the GOC and dissipated. Meantime we got sunny skies and hot blazing sun, although humidity stayed high. A lot of nights at midnight are still around 30 degrees with humidity at 90%. Daytime the "feel like" (or apparent) temperature was 42+. From December being a high rainfall month when the water table gets recharged we only got 40% of average. Some places got isolated storms but that was like winning Lotto, good if you got it.

The weather bureau is looking to a better scenario for January but the models are showing much the same old same old for the next 10 days (not that they're infallible though). It's not that we need a Jasper Daintree situation. That only brings erosion and run off without much water table recharge.

Average maximum for December was 35.7 degrees, kept down by the bit of rain and cloud cover earlier in the month. Today's forecast is 39, apparent temperature is already 43.1.

El Niño is meant to delay the northern monsoon and I suppose that is what we are seeing this year.

Im sick of the “stuck” weather patterns at the moment. I want summer to get down here but with constant south easterlies to easterlies that may not happen. It looks Ike another drizzling cool day today. 

[tropicbreeze]

On 1/2/2024 at 8:37 AM, Tyrone said:

El Niño is meant to delay the northern monsoon and I suppose that is what we are seeing this year.

Im sick of the “stuck” weather patterns at the moment. I want summer to get down here but with constant south easterlies to easterlies that may not happen. It looks Ike another drizzling cool day today. 

I seem to recall heavy monsoonal or cyclonic weather here often corresponded with hot or firey conditions down south. So your run of cold may be the counter balance to our conditions now.

In anticipation of Jasper sending us some rain I planted out three trees and bought another two. One which gets some morning sun has fried despite getting a lot of water. The two still in pots have to stay there until things change. And my poor Hildegardia australiensis, in the ground a few years, put on a beautiful flush of leaves with the November rains but a lot of them are now showing sunburn. Not helped by the sun getting more intense as it comes back directly overhead. Without the cloud cover it makes it worse.

Lately weather models (some) have been putting on an occasional "spin" - off the Kimberley coast and in the GOC. But nothing significant up to the end of the current run.

[greysrigging]

A new record for January heat at Darwin Airport... 4 of the first 5 days of Jan 2024 have exceeded 35c max. Never been more than 2 days +35c at the Airport since records began in 1942


And a tough night for sleeping with the temp hovering around 30c/25c dp's all night....

[Tyrone]

The sun is trying to peak out today and the wind seems to have backed off. It actually feels pleasantly warm outside. 
 

The cool humid conditions have wreaked havoc on my Shiraz vines. Full of mildew, so I may not get any crop this year. Never seen it so bad. 

[tropicbreeze]

What a difference a day makes! Yesterday morning my January rainfall total was running at 8% of average. Wet season total was running at 50% of average. Afternoon got a direct hit from one of the isolated storms. In about an hour 94 mm rain. The closest BOM weather station had 4 mm. I got higher by far than the stations reporting. Typical of the current wet season, some places hit the jackpot, and others even nearby get nothing. This time my (overdue) turn. Two of my rainwater tanks that were one third are now two thirds full.

However, the weather models have been cranking it up a bit. A couple are showing a tropical low developing in the general area of the northern Kimberley and Darwin. The weather bureau is predicting that to develop further with a monsoon trough forming over us in a couple of days. Saturday there's a moderate chance of it forming a tropical cyclone. One of the models is also indicating a low forming in the GOC by the end of the run (10 days) hitting Nhulunbuy at around category 2 or 3 Thursday of next week (the other models aren't picking it up at all). The weather bureau only goes to Tuesday next week giving that one a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by then.

Looks like we'll be getting a more normal wet season, a least for a while. But let's hope it lasts to the normal end of the wet season.

[cbmnz]

I was expecting these Nikau to just cling to life and look terrible, due to full sun and salt winds, when they were put in small, about 3 years ago. However I was wrong, they all doing really well. Wonder if they might be Chattam type, more tollerant of sun/wind.

[Foxpalms]

3 hours ago, cbmnz said:

I was expecting these Nikau to just cling to life and look terrible, due to full sun and salt winds, when they were put in small, about 3 years ago. However I was wrong, they all doing really well. Wonder if they might be Chattam type, more tollerant of sun/wind.

One of the offspring nikaus from the Tresco abbey gardens in the UK was planted in Hugh town not far from the ocean which regularly gets lots of salt spray strong winds looks unscathed.  Not uncommon for the winds gusts combined with salt spray to be well over 70mph there, next week for example they have 3 days of winds over 50mph with it peaking at 71mph.

[tropicbreeze]

We've been under the monsoon trough for a few days now. Not a good time to do the laundry if you don't have a clothes dryer. During the past 84 hours (3.5 days) average relative humidity, calculated at half hourly intervals, was 94%. Only 3.5 hours were below 80%. Maximum temperatures have been right down, one day only got to 29.6, the rest only a bit over 30. Of course the plants are loving it. The only cacti I have (2) are more rainforest types.so no issues there.

My rainfall is now running above average for January (at the moment) but the overall wet season is still only 71%. My dam is only half full so still a ways to go. Falls continue to be inconsisent. My total for the past 24 hours was 44.2mm and Wadeye got 334.6mm. The communities in the Daly region will be cut off and flooded, depending how far along the catchment the rain stayed that heavy. There'll be a lot of leather-coated undertakers out looking for easy pickings. They know land animals are at a disadvanage in flooding.

The tropical low in Joseph Bonaparte Gulf has moved inland so no real chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. But it's going to be carrying a lot of water with it and looks to be heading towards Alice Springs.

 

[tim_brissy_13]

Just woken up here at around 1:30am by the loudest rain and hail storm I’ve ever heard. The weird part is that we are in between 2 sunny, warm days with maximums reaching around 30C/86F and nothing of note was predicted. The even weirder part is that this strange storm is hovering over me while the rest of Melbourne is mostly untouched. We’ve had 40mm of rain in the last 35 minutes with wind gusts up to 80km/h. Just 20km from here, Melbourne city has had 0.0mm rain, absolutely nothing. My closest weather station is Moorabbin Airport about 1km from here, the data recorded is unbelievable. Hopefully not too much damage to see in the morning. 

[Tyrone]

Well this has been the windiest and mildest summer I’ve ever experienced. Lots of clouds and easterlies and very little sun. We had our hottest day since early October on Monday hitting a high of 34C with dewpoints as high as 22C. The wind dropped right out too. Then in the afternoon the wind and clouds returned and the temp dropped. Tuesday was a foul day with high winds, drissle that wouldn’t quit and barely made 22C. Yesterday cleared up so we saw the sun again and the wind dropped a notch with a top around 24C. The big event we were waiting for was the thunderstorm and it didn’t disappoint. Just before sun down it rolled in and dropped around 20mm in ten minutes. Every small depression on the property filled up with water and didn’t drain away for a good while. A decent soaking. Now the clouds have gone and so has the wind. With full January sun and almost no wind today it should be a great humid growing day for the palms. Going for a top of 29C and it appears that the unrelenting easterlies may be gone for a while with even some westerlies forecast. Thank goodness. 

[Tyrone]

Some morning pics from a beautiful day here.