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Florida winter 2023-2024


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Posted
2 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

Does anyone know just how negative the NAO was during the Christmas 2022 freeze in North Florida? That event was striking in the near 0 moderation from inland temps to across the ICW and beaches. It keeps haunting. 

They have a daily number back to 1950 on the NWS site but you need to download the ZIP file. The running averages I looked at don't show a very big dip, but it's more complicated than just the one number.  A lot of people equated that to the 1989 freeze (or "strongest since 89") yet I think that 1989 was considerably worse.  Why it was worse I don't know, but I have my own ideas. Some are human caused and some not as much, but I think we have been lucky since 89.  The big difference was where the low pressure and snow set up then off the Carolinas. The 2022 Christmas freeze had the low over the great lakes. These ones look similar with the low well north. That could be our saving grace, and the forecast is not unusual for the time of year at all anyway. Still don't like it lol.

  • Like 1
Posted

Hey all. I've been watching this upcoming cold air outbreak as well. Here's the comparison of the 12z Euro and GFS temps today. The GFS recently trended a little warmer for FL (as well as for the 18z), but to see the Euro this cold this far out in advance has me a little concerned.

euro.thumb.JPG.e21ee4ca05783b40e42a3f410222a228.JPG

gfss.thumb.JPG.194b3fed430990e6fb408e9f278292c8.JPG

  • Like 1
Posted

I saw this coming a week ago. GFS was flip flopping, trying to figure out what to do with some frigid air in the Canadian Rockies. And I'm like, here we go again.

Now this is not the extreme cold up there like what we had in 2021 but it is cold enough and winter is not even halfway through.

With this cold event, Florida may be spared but Texas and Louisiana, I doubt it. Our only hope is that things stay somewhat zonal along the Gulf coast and the brunt of the arctic air stays a bit north. Otherwise, another year with at least one event in the teens or low twenties.

The annoying thing is the CFSV2 will show abnormal warmth in the northern US or Canada for weeks only to be harshly disproven when something different builds up. In short, it is near worthless like everything else more than 2 or 3 weeks out.

Now, even in an El Nino year, we see the threat of hard freezes in the Deep South.  

The USDA cold hardiness maps have been 'redrawn' to reflect recent 'milder winters' but in light of the severe freezes most years since 2018, we would do better to go back to the old ones.

  • Like 1
Posted

The AO appears (thankfully) to be climbing.  This is not the setup for widespread freezing temperatures across central or southern Florida.   In my area, I expect temperatures in the 38-42F range.  it will be the coldest of the season here thus far but nothing that we don't see yearly.  

image.png.256c19329288c78715f8b43fc5fb9c48.png

 

  • Like 3

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Posted

Here’s the range of forecasts for my area from a couple 10 days. Apple uses the euro I think. Not sure what TWC uses. 
 

388D543B-E425-41C4-92F0-2E46DF8A3BB3.png

AAC5C165-75ED-473B-A2D6-07BD1C9BCA73.jpeg

Posted
2 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

The AO appears (thankfully) to be climbing.  This is not the setup for widespread freezing temperatures across central or southern Florida.   In my area, I expect temperatures in the 38-42F range.  it will be the coldest of the season here thus far but nothing that we don't see yearly.  

image.png.256c19329288c78715f8b43fc5fb9c48.png

 

Much of the big storms come when the AO is very negative and climbs. That time frame.

I dont know if we'll get freeze, but I expect at least 35°F for central FL. Northernmost will probably freeze.

Posted
54 minutes ago, Rapha2343 said:

Much of the big storms come when the AO is very negative and climbs. That time frame.

I dont know if we'll get freeze, but I expect at least 35°F for central FL. Northernmost will probably freeze.

In order to freeze deep into central Florida, the AO would have to be much lower than where it is.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Posted

I got an inch of rain and a lifted greenhouse out of the storm. No damage I can see anywhere but it is a nasty one.  The stakes I used did well outside of major gusts, and it didn't leave completely, so that's good.

Posted

The GFS, Canadian and Euro are much kinder to NE Florida today. If the microclimates that typically prevail do alright, we will be ok. The local differential over is 7-9 degrees on the typical coldest nights of the year which saves us. I am happy to see the trend of AO moving positive, although it is often a storm signal for the east coast.

Posted
On 1/8/2024 at 6:53 PM, flplantguy said:

They have a daily number back to 1950 on the NWS site but you need to download the ZIP file. The running averages I looked at don't show a very big dip, but it's more complicated than just the one number.  A lot of people equated that to the 1989 freeze (or "strongest since 89") yet I think that 1989 was considerably worse.  Why it was worse I don't know, but I have my own ideas. Some are human caused and some not as much, but I think we have been lucky since 89.  The big difference was where the low pressure and snow set up then off the Carolinas. The 2022 Christmas freeze had the low over the great lakes. These ones look similar with the low well north. That could be our saving grace, and the forecast is not unusual for the time of year at all anyway. Still don't like it lol.

Thanks. Sorry just saw this. I will check it out. 

Posted (edited)
On 1/4/2024 at 12:21 PM, SeanK said:

No to Worry; Köppen said MIA is tropical.

It’s interesting.   I’m north of Miami, but don’t worry about temps too much.  Hardwood trees are much less common than large pinnate palms in my neighborhood.  Last year when we had daytime lows in the 50s and nighttime in the 40s, it was a rare three day cold stretch that actually damaged a bunch of bromeliads I had.   Normally, almost every day of every month, it reaches at least 70 degrees, except for a few scattered days here and there.   It was the first cold damage I’ve had at the house, though we’ve only had the place for about 4 years.  But those few low days mean all the difference long term.  

If you go from Chicago to Jamaica, and divide the trip in about equal 3rds, it’s approximately 1/3 Chicago to Atlanta, 1/3 Atlanta to Miami, and 1/3 Miami to Jamaica.   It’s a world of difference in plant life and climate, as you arrive at each new 1/3rd, though the changes are blunted as you go south.  

A04FA228-7DB7-4939-9BF9-30E8FD9A6E10.jpeg.cb3f5829c6aad849b80e8aa292851484.jpeg

I look at the temps predicted below and that would absolutely toast a lot of my bromeliads and tropical shrubs, though the palms would be fine mostly.  I’ve been living here 15 years, and don’t remember, cold like that.  Looking at charts you have to go back 40 years to see an isolated cold night like that.  When I first came to South Florida on a trip in the 1990s, there had been a rare real cold snap, and it looked like a forrest fire had moved through the entire area we were in.  Normal vegetation was completely torched in large swaths. 

On 1/7/2024 at 11:37 AM, kinzyjr said:

I noticed that as well.  The map actually had some milder readings near the Space Coast than some of SE Florida.

202401071135_WeatherModel.thumb.jpg.5ec4862df5e0487c905a1947a93ee74a.jpg


It’s 78 degrees here tonight…  but looks like 60s on the other side of that line.

F2FB0DB8-D23C-40EE-807D-074907BDBDD1.thumb.jpeg.572ea0d3bbf29ecb2d345a6c594e9682.jpeg

Edited by Looking Glass
  • Like 2
Posted
13 hours ago, Looking Glass said:

It’s interesting.   I’m north of Miami, but don’t worry about temps too much.  Hardwood trees are much less common than large pinnate palms in my neighborhood.  Last year when we had daytime lows in the 50s and nighttime in the 40s, it was a rare three day cold stretch that actually damaged a bunch of bromeliads I had.   Normally, almost every day of every month, it reaches at least 70 degrees, except for a few scattered days here and there.   It was the first cold damage I’ve had at the house, though we’ve only had the place for about 4 years.  But those few low days mean all the difference long term.  

If you go from Chicago to Jamaica, and divide the trip in about equal 3rds, it’s approximately 1/3 Chicago to Atlanta, 1/3 Atlanta to Miami, and 1/3 Miami to Jamaica.   It’s a world of difference in plant life and climate, as you arrive at each new 1/3rd, though the changes are blunted as you go south.  

A04FA228-7DB7-4939-9BF9-30E8FD9A6E10.jpeg.cb3f5829c6aad849b80e8aa292851484.jpeg

I look at the temps predicted below and that would absolutely toast a lot of my bromeliads and tropical shrubs, though the palms would be fine mostly.  I’ve been living here 15 years, and don’t remember, cold like that.  Looking at charts you have to go back 40 years to see an isolated cold night like that.  When I first came to South Florida on a trip in the 1990s, there had been a rare real cold snap, and it looked like a forrest fire had moved through the entire area we were in.  Normal vegetation was completely torched in large swaths. 


It’s 78 degrees here tonight…  but looks like 60s on the other side of that line.

F2FB0DB8-D23C-40EE-807D-074907BDBDD1.thumb.jpeg.572ea0d3bbf29ecb2d345a6c594e9682.jpeg

Yup. We can see a 20° drop on the backside of these winter fronts 

Posted

 

1 hour ago, SeanK said:

Yup. We can see a 20° drop on the backside of these winter fronts 

I’ll take nights in the 60s whenever we can get them!  

E3D1D99A-BF85-411B-8D09-42B33E4E817F.thumb.jpeg.d595c3a084cdfec89a62628acd3f636c.jpeg

Posted

Will have to keep watching even after this upcoming cold event

 

 

Posted
3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Will have to keep watching even after this upcoming cold event

 

 

I saw we have a 17° night early next week. Not too cold but a lot of cool and rainy weather this winter.

Posted

Tonight ICON brings a freeze to northern 1/3 of the state for next Wednesday morning. It seems like the different model outcomes for Wednesday morning have to do with the timing of the passage of the front and just how long you are behind the front with falling temperatures during the day of Tuesday, being that the next morning's low is the "free fall" temp from the frontal passage the day prior. The next morning (Thursday morning) is universally warmer on all models, which is out of the ordinary (so this first push of cold is forecast to be fleeting).  From online chatter, the ICON model seems to handle the shallow arctic air better than others. On a sad note, tonight's ICON absolutely destroys Texas with LOW 20s to the Rio Grande Valley...honestly looking at the map makes me sick! If you are living in Texas, you might as well be back in the 80s considering all these horrific freezes the past couple winters. I hope it is not as bad as some of these model show.

Back to Florida -- The midday Euro and GFS do have freeze risks deeper into state for 20th and 21st as this supposed second shot of cold comes down. It looks like the NE will get a noreaster as the NAO rebounds and this storm may pull down cold air. The arctic airmass is going to be entrenched just so very near, so we will need to be on guard until around the 22nd. It looks like the warmer MJO phase 4 will take over for a bit, perhaps until February.

Other notes -- the iPhone weather app, which I thought used TWC data, varies widely throughout the day for predicted lows. Honestly garbage to look at if you have temperature anxiety.  TWC  website still doesn't show any freeze for coastal NE Florida. Also being we are a week away, we can now look to the NWS (but they are often too conservative at the beginning of any major cold or heat wave). For what it is worth they have an official low of 39 for Tuesday.  The NWS also mentions clouds and showers - so this could also be what keeps the temps a little elevated. We will see!

Posted

gotta move the rest of my plants in ..... weatheerman    s ez  31 but they start really forcasting specifically the night before 

 

Posted
On 1/9/2024 at 10:06 AM, D. Morrowii said:

Here’s the range of forecasts for my area from a couple 10 days. Apple uses the euro I think. Not sure what TWC uses. 
 

388D543B-E425-41C4-92F0-2E46DF8A3BB3.png

AAC5C165-75ED-473B-A2D6-07BD1C9BCA73.jpeg

I don't think Merritt will see 80° tomorrow.

Posted

It's a good thing the more reliable models are not showing a freeze at the same time as this one for the 21 or I would be nervous. Still an indicator of cold weather possible, but sub-20 readings in Pasco county and a freeze down to the Everglades is not a common occurrence.

Screenshot_20240111-192929.png

  • Like 1
Posted
9 hours ago, SeanK said:

I don't think Merritt will see 80° tomorrow.

Probably not, Its clicked down two notches to 78 now. 

Posted

How cold do you think it will be in Jacksonville ?  Inkwirin mindz wish to know?

 

Posted

NWS coming in with a forecasted low of 19F Tuesday night. Time to make a game plan.

Palms - Adonidia merillii1 Bismarckia nobilis, 2 Butia odorataBxJ1 BxJxBxS1 BxSChamaerops humilis1 Chambeyronia macrocarpa1 Hyophorbe lagenicaulis1 Hyophorbe verschaffeltiiLivistona chinensis1 Livistona nitida, 1 Phoenix canariensis3 Phoenix roebeleniiRavenea rivularis1 Rhapis excelsa1 Sabal bermudanaSabal palmetto4 Syagrus romanzoffianaTrachycarpus fortunei4 Washingtonia robusta1 Wodyetia bifurcata
Total: 41

Posted

Today it’s just plain hot out here….84F.  

Posted
On 1/11/2024 at 10:16 AM, SeanK said:

I don't think Merritt will see 80° tomorrow.

We were both wrong, made to 82😃

  • Like 2
Posted

Made it to 78 here today and showing a dropping temp through tommorow, then two nights in the mid thirties here for the first front. The second is what I'm worried about for a freeze here, all this up and down makes watering an exact science lol.

  • Upvote 1
Posted

Two stations nearest to here made it to 80.6F and 82F today.  Still in the high 70s as the sun it sitting.  Next week and points afterward is a different story.

202401121807_WeatherCOM.jpg.3e2649ddfad1fca4d4b57a22cda28e62.jpg

  • Upvote 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Posted
47 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Two stations nearest to here made it to 80.6F and 82F today.  Still in the high 70s as the sun it sitting.  Next week and points afterward is a different story.

202401121807_WeatherCOM.jpg.3e2649ddfad1fca4d4b57a22cda28e62.jpg

I don’t like when the first number is a 3 :-(  

  • Like 3
Posted (edited)

👀Euro Jan 20 and 21st 👀

us_model-en_modez_2024011212_216_507_210.png

Edited by TampaPalms
  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Posted
3 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

I don’t like when the first number is a 3 😞  

It really stinks when it's a 1 or a 2 ;)

2 hours ago, TampaPalms said:

Euro Jan 20 and 21st

Looks roughly equivalent to what I see for each of the airport forecasts in the region.

  • Upvote 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Posted
On 1/11/2024 at 7:32 PM, flplantguy said:

It's a good thing the more reliable models are not showing a freeze at the same time as this one for the 21 or I would be nervous. Still an indicator of cold weather possible, but sub-20 readings in Pasco county and a freeze down to the Everglades is not a common occurrence.

Screenshot_20240111-192929.png

The Everglades and Homestead can be surprisingly cold certainly colder than Fort Lauderdale or the whole gold coast up to Martin County, as shown on this map. Even in summer Homestead weather charts show several degrees cooler nights with more heavy fog and 100% humidity than any of the cities in southern FL. The average low temps on these charts sometimes seem impossible when they are sometimes shown as lower than the average summer dewpoints in the region...

Posted
16 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

We were both wrong, made to 82😃

Hope it was sunny. Rain moving in across south central FL.

Posted

NWS showing 21F here Tuesday night but I’m not changing my plan. Protecting everything that’s less hardy than a Queen. I’ll be taking temperature observations on 3 different plants and will also be taking temperatures observations in the front and back yard. I’m not messing around with this event.

  • Like 2

Palms - Adonidia merillii1 Bismarckia nobilis, 2 Butia odorataBxJ1 BxJxBxS1 BxSChamaerops humilis1 Chambeyronia macrocarpa1 Hyophorbe lagenicaulis1 Hyophorbe verschaffeltiiLivistona chinensis1 Livistona nitida, 1 Phoenix canariensis3 Phoenix roebeleniiRavenea rivularis1 Rhapis excelsa1 Sabal bermudanaSabal palmetto4 Syagrus romanzoffianaTrachycarpus fortunei4 Washingtonia robusta1 Wodyetia bifurcata
Total: 41

Posted

NWS back to 20F, I have gotten a head start on getting these trees ready. Lights have been applied to the Queens, fronds tied up on foxtail and pygmy, dead leaves cleaned off taller bananas to prepare them for wrapping tomorrow. Bizzy fronds will be tied up tonight as well as super mule fronds. All will get wrapped tomorrow. If you can’t tell, I’m preparing for several degrees lower than the forecast, especially based on how my temperatures have behaved so far this winter.
 

It’ll be a bit challenging with precipitation expected Tuesday, so I’ll try my best to apply the plastic in a way to keep out as much water as possible.

  • Like 3

Palms - Adonidia merillii1 Bismarckia nobilis, 2 Butia odorataBxJ1 BxJxBxS1 BxSChamaerops humilis1 Chambeyronia macrocarpa1 Hyophorbe lagenicaulis1 Hyophorbe verschaffeltiiLivistona chinensis1 Livistona nitida, 1 Phoenix canariensis3 Phoenix roebeleniiRavenea rivularis1 Rhapis excelsa1 Sabal bermudanaSabal palmetto4 Syagrus romanzoffianaTrachycarpus fortunei4 Washingtonia robusta1 Wodyetia bifurcata
Total: 41

Posted (edited)

Yes over the last couple days, the temps have gone up a bit. Originally it was looking like we were going to have a Dec 2022 repeat, now less so but still a hard freeze at this point. It's weird, the GFS is now about the warmest model, even showing only 25 deg at times in the colder areas of the FL Panhandle. I'm actually treating it like an outlier right now as all the other models are colder (even the Euro). Based on how everything is looking, I think it will bottom out in the very low 20's or right about at 20 deg for the colder areas away from the coast/bay/bayous. Although I wouldn't be surprised if it gets below 20 deg still. For those some of those aforementioned microclimates, I would think maybe mid 20's. From what I've been reading, the freeze will be advective at first so that will reduce those microclimates. Under dead calm radiational conditions, we've had low 20's across the bay on the mainland and only 32-33 deg in those microclimates. So we'll see how well those areas will fare this time.

Edited by Matthew92
Posted (edited)

This is from the NWS Tampa. Tampa proper would be below 30° Sunday morning the 21st. 

20240114_210606.jpg

Edited by TampaPalms
  • Upvote 2
Posted

Theres zero evidence this is gonna happen, every forecast shows no less than 45.

Posted
5 hours ago, TampaPalms said:

This is from the NWS Tampa. Tampa proper would be below 30° Sunday morning the 21st. 

20240114_210606.jpg

Looks like NNE wind flow. 

Brevard County, Fl

Posted
9 hours ago, TampaPalms said:

This is from the NWS Tampa. Tampa proper would be below 30° Sunday morning the 21st. 

 

Looks like the Bay Area will NOT be close to freezing.  The AO is -2.2 and not conducive to an area wide freeze.  The EURO model echoes this.

image.png.d372f31c360e8da99c09be38332fc4dc.png

 

 

  • Like 2

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

Posted

After these next two weeks the pattern will change as well. If that pans out and we don't get any more major arctic fronts in February (which becomes increasingly less likely through the month) I will have a 10b winter in a warm 9b zone. I don't think that will happen, under the trees here has only been as low as 39 and 36 in the open. This front would have to bring us below 35, which is possible, but not a guarantee yet. Chilly days I will take if it means no freezes.

  • Like 2

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