Florida winter 2023-2024

[Matthew92]

1 hour ago, flplantguy said:

After these next two weeks the pattern will change as well. If that pans out and we don't get any more major arctic fronts in February (which becomes increasingly less likely through the month) I will have a 10b winter in a warm 9b zone. I don't think that will happen, under the trees here has only been as low as 39 and 36 in the open. This front would have to bring us below 35, which is possible, but not a guarantee yet. Chilly days I will take if it means no freezes.

It's been a long time since we've (Florida) had significant cold in February, and some of the worst ones in the past occurred then (1835, 1895, 1917...) It appears there will be a warm up after this cold spell (which will go through next weekend), but various meteorologists I follow on Twitter have picked up on that the pattern could support more cold threats in February, so will have to be on watch. Our recent warm Februarys the last few years have been very warm so it might be about time for a more seasonably colder one. Will see. 

 

Edited January 15, 2024 by Matthew92

[flplantguy]

Feb 2010 and 1980 look like the closest analogues if I'm reading right. I'll have to look in detail but both of those came after a bad cold event, so if we skip this one maybe it will just be chilly.

[Silas_Sancona]

13 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Feb 2010 and 1980 look like the closest analogues if I'm reading right. I'll have to look in detail but both of those came after a bad cold event, so if we skip this one maybe it will just be chilly.

I remember 2010 vividly ..Don't recall Feb. being all that cold though.. Not to say there wasn't some lingering chill while walking beaches, looking for anything cool that had been killed / washed up after the freeze earlier on though ..at least of any significance in Largo / Clearwater .. Just don't it being as nasty compared to the month before.

That said, i do recall some deg of cold ..at least briefly.. in Feb of 2011. Ex lived in Spring Hill and remember a few mornings up there w/ her seeing yards covered in Ice where sprinkler pipes had burst / Fried Washingtonia in Brooksville. Might have been the year i lost a couple tender-er orchids i'd left out too..

Also recall there being some frost around the yard / seeing it on the ground / rooftops on at least a couple mornings on my way to work ... sometime in early Feb 2015 ..or '16 when i lived in Bradenton / worked in Sarasota.

Think 2016 was the also the year we'd had a big " chilly " windstorm that generated large whitecaps on Sarasota Bay, easily visible from  the 41, my usual route home from work ( so i could stare at all the good stuff growing in yards / eyeball what was flowering as i'd pass Selby  along the way, haha ) Was right before i'd left FL

[Matthew92]

February 2010 was one of the coldest I've seen in North FL. Had a legit light snow shower come through the Western Panhandle and low 20's. From what I recall it was quite cold in peninsular FL, maybe some freezes, but not hard ones.

I remember that spring (plants leafing/blooming out) didn't come until late March and even April there had been so much cold. Lately that has been happening as early as mid to late February.

[Silas_Sancona]

32 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

February 2010 was one of the coldest I've seen in North FL. Had a legit light snow shower come through the Western Panhandle and low 20's. From what I recall it was quite cold in peninsular FL, maybe some freezes, but not hard ones.

I remember that spring (plants leafing/blooming out) didn't come until late March and even April there had been so much cold. Lately that has been happening as early as mid to late February.

Definitely possible the chill lingered into at least the 1st 2 weeks in Feb. of '10,  at least in the immediate area, but pretty sure it flipped, fairly dramatically, by the end of the month, though i think the transition started off quite wet.. My first trek to Siesta Key was sometime in the late Feb / early March time frame and remember both the earlier flowering Trumpet Trees / Bombax ceiba specimens in the immediate area being in flower at that time.

Closer to " home ", Delonix r.  specimens i'd pass whenever i'd go to Indian Rocks / Treasure Island / St. Pete Beach were nekked / a few pushing some new growth.   

'11 Was different for sure.. Would walk / jog the entire length of Treasure Island beach 2x a week at night starting sometime in Feb.  Walked the entire length of St. Pete Beach at least once that spring as well..

Would probably have gotten myself in trouble, but was tempted to walk the grounds of the Don Cesar on one of those walks, just to get an up close view of the place ..and what was growing there. 

[Bill H2DB]

  Use this from NWS , and you can review  any year  day by day .

 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tbw

 

 

[JLM]

30F tomorrow morning with rain is technically the definition of freezing rain despite the NWS not specifically forecasting freezing rain here. That’s going to make cold protection a bit challenging.

[aabell]

Crazy storm cell parked over Cape Coral and Fort Myers all afternoon, 6"-10" of pounding rain. 

El nino has certainly delivered with the rain for Florida, especially on the west Coast it's been wetter than last summer. Just waiting for all of the potted plants to start rotting now as it's been cool, cloudy, and wet every day for weeks, and now possibly real cold on the way. 

[Matthew92]

This will be no cakewalk here in the FL Panhandle. While the ultimate lows might not be absolutely horrible, the duration and multiple other nights in the 20's (with the reinforcing shot of arctic air this weekend) is going to be hard on the marginal palms/other plants. 

Edited January 16, 2024 by Matthew92

[Matthew92]

Looks like similar lows possible this weekend

[flplantguy]

I feel like these low temps on the peninsula are not where they should be. It should get lower at some point this winter but after this there will be a warm up for a bit. Then February and decreasing odds of cold. Will we hit our hardiness zone in late Feb or March? It has happened before so could be. I'll take worry over cold over the H word though.

[JLM]

Queens have a thin coating of ice on the fronds this morning.

[JLM]

Hopefully the picture loads but heres the ice:

[ChristianStAug]

1 hour ago, JLM said:

Hopefully the picture loads but heres the ice:

Brutal to see ice on a feather-leaf palm. Best of luck over there.  The end of the panhandle is 70 miles farther west of me that Miami is to my south which is always shocking to me.  The climate is equally as different.  The precipitation definitely sucks. 

--

I had to relax a bit from checking the models and I am grateful we look to skip this event and the weekend. Temps should get into the 30s tonight but only at the last minute before sunrise. They still have a LONG way to tumble and still rising through the low 70s. So far, most people's perception of this winter seem to be that it is chillier than normal due to many overcast days and showers. Our house feels "cold" many of these mid 60 degrees days that we have been having without sun.  However, the nights have not been THAT cold in peninsular Florida. We haven't dropped below 42 degrees here yet this season. Obviously we will drop lower tonight. 

I always look forward to about a week into February when we hit "tropical sun" at my latitude or a sun angle of 45 degrees at solar noon. That also corresponds when the sun really starts adding warmth. By the time it hits 50 degrees, two weeks later, freezes are hard to come by.  I looked back at February 2010 and it was a very chilly month with several nights in the 30s, but no temps below 32 degrees at the St. Augustine Airport. Interesting. I was actually touring Flagler College in January of 2010 and after the cold snap earlier in the month and I remember the grass browned out and all the landscaping was quite dull.

 

[flplantguy]

Forecast is dropping some now here too. Right about where we should be for the zone, but I feel like it should still be lower here compared to the rest. I'm sure it will fall in line just before and some people will be caught off guard.

[TampaPalms]

Yesterday NWS Tampa had Tampa Sunday at 39°, today 37°. Hopefully it will level off. I am roughly 10 mi north of downtown so my temperatures usually 3 to 5° lower. 

[ChristianStAug]

49 minutes ago, TampaPalms said:

Yesterday NWS Tampa had Tampa Sunday at 39°, today 37°. Hopefully it will level off. I am roughly 10 mi north of downtown so my temperatures usually 3 to 5° lower. 

It does seem the northern-west side of the peninsula is favored on Sunday morning, following the typical cold air drainage pattern during the typical colder winter nights...

.

Edited January 16, 2024 by ChristianStAug

[JLM]

After freezing rain, sleet, and even some snow mixing in this morning, my temperature dropped below freezing at around 7:30 AM and as of 12:47 PM CST, i am still below freezing. Currently sitting at 31F right now but at around 12 PM i actually had a temperature of 29F. This cold is no joke.

Edited January 16, 2024 by JLM

[ChristianStAug]

21 minutes ago, JLM said:

After freezing rain, sleet, and even some snow mixing in this morning, my temperature dropped below freezing at around 7:30 AM and as of 12:47 PM CST, i am still below freezing. Currently sitting at 31F right now but at around 12 PM i actually had a temperature of 29F. This cold is no joke.

South Padre island is still at 32.  And now it goes all the way to Pensacola. At midday! Just terrible. 

[JLM]

8 minutes ago, ChristianStAug said:

South Padre island is still at 32.  And now it goes all the way to Pensacola. At midday! Just terrible. 

Above freezing now, but its only 33.3F. I am supposed to be in the 36F-38F range right now. This could spell bigger trouble for overnight temps. Would not be shocked if i hit 25F before 7 PM tonight. 

[Fishinsteeg234]

It’s wild seeing the wide range of temps across the state today at 3pm:

 

[Matthew92]

7 hours ago, JLM said:

Hopefully the picture loads but heres the ice:

Wow, you got much colder quicker than here in Southern Okaloosa County. Before the rain stopped here it was 35 deg. I don't know if it was just non-frozen water particles kind of flying in the air, but I thought I saw some tiny snowflakes mixed with the rain earlier. It's "warmed up" to 38 right now at 3:30pm. 

[kinzyjr]

Still looks like Saturday will be the coldest night of the year so far - subject to change up to the minute it happens :

[JLM]

Water got into the wraps this morning, there’s ice inside the wraps. Game over.

[Matthew92]

This fierce wind is currently canceling out the beach microclimates. With a calm, radiational freeze, the temps out near the beach are as much as 10 degrees warmer.

 

[Jimbean]

5:30AM roughly

[RFun]

8 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

This fierce wind is currently canceling out the beach microclimates. With a calm, radiational freeze, the temps out near the beach are as much as 10 degrees warmer.

 

Yes, this system does bring with it some winds to these areas, no doubt.  Not super strong winds, but winds, nevertheless.

[Matthew92]

5:25am

 

 

Edited January 17, 2024 by Matthew92

[JLM]

Luckily after that post I made lastnight the temperature stopped dropping inside the wraps and some started rising again. The foxtail made it up to 40F lastnight, and is currently sitting at 36F while the outside temperature is 18.7F.

[Eric in Orlando]

Crazy range of temperatures in Florida at around 7AM today...18-72. 

[Estlander]

6 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

5:25am

 

 

Bottomed out at 23.5F, -4.7C in my yard.

Edited January 17, 2024 by Estlander

[RedRabbit]

I see 36f in the forecast for Sunday morning. If that holds, and nothing else significant comes along, this will have been warm winter for Central Florida.

[Brian M]

Bottomed out at 31 the last hour before sunrise. Onshore breeze kept any possible frost away. This weekend is looking like it'll stay north of freezing by a few degrees. Early prognosis of my Leucothrinax morrisii is it took it with a smile...not bad for a zone 10b/11 palm! 

[Jimbean]

58 minutes ago, Brian M said:

Bottomed out at 31 the last hour before sunrise. Onshore breeze kept any possible frost away. This weekend is looking like it'll stay north of freezing by a few degrees. Early prognosis of my Leucothrinax morrisii is it took it with a smile...not bad for a zone 10b/11 palm! 

Leucothrinax morrisii is probably a 9B palm actually.  

[Brian M]

9 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

Leucothrinax morrisii is probably a 9B palm actually.  

Yeah I know, that's why I decided to "push" it. It's fun to pretend since it's mainly in the keys. 

[SubTropicRay]

I've yet to drop below 45F this winter.  That'll change Sunday morning but no complaints overall.  Let's get through Sunday morning and the worst will be behind us.

[SeanK]

ATL expecting 14°F. I would expect the I4 corridor to hover near 30°.

[Fishinsteeg234]

Calling for 36 Sunday morning for me in Wekiva Springs area. I haven’t seen below 40 this winter so far. If I can get past this Sunday without frost, I will be thrilled to have experienced a 10B winter for a change. Fingers crossed. 🤞 I hope I didn’t just jinx it. 

[Looking Glass]

3 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

I've yet to drop below 45F this winter.  That'll change Sunday morning but no complaints overall.  Let's get through Sunday morning and the worst will be behind us.

It’s been a weird winter here…. Not many cool days, but a lukewarm, gloomy, cloudy winter overall.  Less days in the 80s in December 2023 than 2022, but more days in 70s with only a couple scattered nights in the mid 50s.   No real cold snap to yet.  My primitive weather watching resources show lows only in the mid 50s for the coming cold snap, but a couple of days in the high 60s maybe, which will be nice.  
 

December 2023 versus…..


December 2022…

[JLM]

Uncovered smaller stuff today to let them have a chance to dry out and breathe a little, almost everything has been damaged to some extent. Maybe i did something wrong? Maybe it was just the magnitude of cold?