Florida winter 2023-2024

[flplantguy]

Perfect example of why coconuts struggle north of Pinellas county in this shot. It's 56 in my yard also, with most temps ten degrees or more warmer. I think I can possibly succeed with some cooler growers if they can handle summer temps, which are not quite as hot as the rest of the peninsula either. With it being further away from the continent these big cold events aren't as bad either, but I still hit 27 last year and this one is the next test. If it's not any colder and not very common then I may succeed, I have been 10b a few times this season but only just barely.  Even this first wave of cold was 38 when they forecast 35.

[kinzyjr]

5 hours ago, JLM said:

Uncovered smaller stuff today to let them have a chance to dry out and breathe a little, almost everything has been damaged to some extent. Maybe i did something wrong? Maybe it was just the magnitude of cold?

Hope everything is OK and just showing some leaf burn.  Other factors like the duration of the cold, the short amount of time it took the temperature to drop, and the wet nature of this front probably played a factor as well.

[ruskinPalms]

Looks like I’m forecasted for about 36 to 37 F for this next cold spell but with lots of northeast winds so no real frost or freeze threats. Of note, this has been a really cloudy and wet winter which has kept the overnight lows up and daytime highs down. Been a very Southern California kinda winter here so far 😉.  My coconuts and other palms look good so far this far into winter. Here’s hoping this next cold spell passes uneventfully and we actually start getting some of that traditional winter time heat back. 

[D. Morrowii]

6 hours ago, flplantguy said:

Perfect example of why coconuts struggle north of Pinellas county in this shot. It's 56 in my yard also, with most temps ten degrees or more warmer. I think I can possibly succeed with some cooler growers if they can handle summer temps, which are not quite as hot as the rest of the peninsula either. With it being further away from the continent these big cold events aren't as bad either, but I still hit 27 last year and this one is the next test. If it's not any colder and not very common then I may succeed, I have been 10b a few times this season but only just barely.  Even this first wave of cold was 38 when they forecast 35.

I guess that cold on the shore side is because the front came from that direction? I thought it would be warmer near the gulf.

If the forecast temps for this next front end up being right for this area we will just barely fall out of a zone 11b ….so far, knock on wood. I think there is a pretty good chance of this area seeing a mid 30’s F any year and probably by now (mid January). I’m not 100% sure but I feel like even though there have been more “cool” days this winter we must be around 10 deg above what I was expecting for a low, if that makes sense? 

Whats going on in Bushnell over there? Somebody must have left the refrigerator door open 🙂 

[Matthew92]

Was expecting low 20's last night, but it only got to 24. Very glad. I very sadly lost my Ruby Red grapefruit, Ponkan tangerine, and Meyer lemon in the Christmas 2022 freeze (all 10+ years old), but the Glen Navel and Parson Brown orange survived. So I was worried about how they would do in this freeze, and last night I looked outside and I could tell that by the look of the leaves they were taking it ok as far as I could see (still green, not severely curled/shriveled). In December 2022, they curled/shriveled and turned brown fast during that 3 day stretch of teens to low 20s every night and not much above freezing during the day. Also with that freeze, we had had warmer temperatures leading up to it, so I think the trees were more shocked and took it harder. This time we've had plenty of light freezes leading up to this big one, so I believe they are more dormant and able to withstand it better.

Also, with the big freeze 2 evenings ago, that next day at work (I work at a garden center at one of the big box stores in Destin), there were plenty of puddles that were frozen in the garden center that lasted well into the day. And oddly enough, this morning, in a garden pot, there was still a chunk of ice floating! Which is crazy because it did go above freezing yesterday (mid to high 40's), and then according to the closest weather station in Miramar Beach, it only got to 37 deg last night out there near the beach last night. The pot was in a sheltered section of the garden (out of the sun), so maybe it just was melting so slow it was still there that next day.

Also, at the Whole Foods in Destin, the irrigation had run the night of the hard freeze, and the result was quite a sight. Much of this ice was still here as late as 11am.

Edited January 19, 2024 by Matthew92

[flplantguy]

1 hour ago, D. Morrowii said:

I guess that cold on the shore side is because the front came from that direction? I thought it would be warmer near the gulf.

If the forecast temps for this next front end up being right for this area we will just barely fall out of a zone 11b ….so far, knock on wood. I think there is a pretty good chance of this area seeing a mid 30’s F any year and probably by now (mid January). I’m not 100% sure but I feel like even though there have been more “cool” days this winter we must be around 10 deg above what I was expecting for a low, if that makes sense? 

Whats going on in Bushnell over there? Somebody must have left the refrigerator door open 🙂 

I have noticed the same diurnal range being narrow from all the clouds this winter. Yesterday being sunny and bright was odd to me lol. I don't mind 40s and 60s if it means no freezes though.

[RedRabbit]

 

Edited January 19, 2024 by RedRabbit

[RedRabbit]

😳

[ChristianStAug]

22 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

😳

You scared me with WINDCHILL!

[JLM]

Well, everything goes back into wraps for tonight and tomorrow night. Some things come out of wraps Sunday but the more tender stuff comes out on Monday. All the potted stuff also gets to go back outside and get a nice watering after being inside for a week+
 

[flplantguy]

I took a screenshot of this and it's gone from the site now, so here it is for verification of the model.  It's the only one to show it 32 or lower along the coast like this, or below freezing in Pasco county at all, yet we have a freeze watch up so they must know something I don't.  The last one was warmer so I'm hoping the GFS is right this time too.

[RedRabbit]

2 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

I took a screenshot of this and it's gone from the site now, so here it is for verification of the model.  It's the only one to show it 32 or lower along the coast like this, or below freezing in Pasco county at all, yet we have a freeze watch up so they must know something I don't.  The last one was warmer so I'm hoping the GFS is right this time too.

HRRR draws the most realistic contours around Tampa Bay, but I’m not sure how accurate their forecast lows are.

[pj_orlando_z9b]

This can't be correct, can it?

[JLM]

21 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

This can't be correct, can it?

That station is incorrect. One way to check if a station is not out of its mind is if surrounding stations are showing similar temperatures. In this case, definitely not.

[kinzyjr]

37 minutes ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

This can't be correct, can it?

My general rules of thumb in regard to weather station vs. weather station:

• Compare with the nearest DVP2
  • 1F-2F difference: Reasonably accurate
  • 3F-5F difference: Probably due to siting and/or calibration
  • 5F-7F: Sensor may need replaced if siting is not near a hot/cold source
  • >7F: Disregard - all bets are off

[TampaPalms]

Looks like Tonight should bottom out at 35° here in North Tampa. So holding at a 10B winter. The long-term outlet looks above average. Central Florida is almost in the clear.  I hope we don't have one of those little surprise freezes in mid February that occur once in awhile.

Edited January 21, 2024 by TampaPalms

[Jimbean]

[flplantguy]

32.2 on my tempest station that runs cold I think. Other sensors are over 33 and all are rising now. Looks like I dodged this time. Maybe this year?  Another month or more to find out.

[ruskinPalms]

Bottomed out at 37F at my house this morning which seemed to be a common temperature for a wide part of the Tampa Bay Area. Supposed to rebound to 61F today. 

[D. Morrowii]

41F was the low here, 3 degrees lower than what was being predicted from most of the sources. 

[kinzyjr]

Minimum in the yard was the same as @ruskinPalms (37F).  The coconut bed managed to squeak out an extra degree (38F).  The nearest DVP2 was within 0.2 of a degree of my open yard temperature, so treating it as valid.  The airport appears to have recorded the same minimum.  My open yard was only below 38F from 6am-8am vs. the airport station showing 37F from ~4am-~8am.  The DVP2 nearby had a longer duration below 38F than my station, but not as long as the airport.

@D. Morrowii It's been one of those years for predictions.  Keeps you on your toes!  At least it was 3 degrees when they were somewhat inconsequential .

[RFun]

22 hours ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

This can't be correct, can it?

Love me some Weather Underground for weather.  Very good with the microclimates.  However, it's apparent that thermometer has malfunctioned.

[D. Morrowii]

7 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Minimum in the yard was the same as @ruskinPalms (37F).  The coconut bed managed to squeak out an extra degree (38F).  The nearest DVP2 was within 0.2 of a degree of my open yard temperature, so treating it as valid.  The airport appears to have recorded the same minimum.  My open yard was only below 38F from 6am-8am vs. the airport station showing 37F from ~4am-~8am.  The DVP2 nearby had a longer duration below 38F than my station, but not as long as the airport.

@D. Morrowii It's been one of those years for predictions.  Keeps you on your toes!  At least it was 3 degrees when they were somewhat inconsequential .

It a good reminder to stay on those toes for when 32 is forecasted.

[RedRabbit]

34-36f here. I think the 34 reading may be from the sensor being on the ground. In any event, not great relative to other areas, but I’ll take it. 

No screenshots from me today. It wasn’t that cold and I didn’t want to get up at 7am. 😆

Edited January 21, 2024 by RedRabbit

[kinzyjr]

52 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

34-36f here. I think the 34 reading may be from the sensor being on the ground. In any event, not great relative to other areas, but I’ll take it. 

No screenshots from me today. It wasn’t that cold and I didn’t want to get up at 7am. 😆

The 34F was definitely from being on the ground.  I've seen some pretty atrocious numbers from temperature sensors at ground level.

[NickJames]

I ended up at 35. I’m very pleased with this considering I had a freeze last winter and the winter before. 

If I don’t end up with anything lower this season, I’ll have had a 10B winter 

I perform much better with cold air advection in my parts versus a radiational freeze. I was up at 2am watching the wind blow through my property and doing a little dance. The dry, breezy air also inhibits frost formation so I actually prefer a windy 35 degree night versus a still one.

[Jimbean]

According to the nearest station, by low was 41.5F.  Other stations were within a degree F of that.

[NickJames]

1 minute ago, NickJames said:

I ended up at 35. I’m very pleased with this considering I had a freeze last winter and the winter before. 

If I don’t end up with anything lower this season, I’ll have had a 10B winter 

I perform much better with cold air advection in my parts versus a radiational freeze. I was up at 2am watching the wind blow through my property and doing a little dance. The dry, breezy air also inhibits frost formation so I actually prefer a windy 35 degree night versus a still one.

Adding my graph

[Matthew92]

25 deg here this morning. Much better than earlier forecasts of 20-22 deg. We sure have gotten our fair share of winter this year though...

Edited January 21, 2024 by Matthew92

[pj_orlando_z9b]

38F close to MCO. MCO also recorded 38F. Notice the winds starting to shift from the E. Let the warmup begin.

[Fishinsteeg234]

Yikes my yard briefly saw 32 this morning at 7a. It was predicted to bottom out at 35 the day before, so it was 3 degrees below forecasted. Over the past three winters (lows of 26, 27, and 32) I’ve learned my neighborhood is unfortunately in a cold spot. It sits just south of the Wekiwa springs state preserve and Seminole State forest which creates a cold alleyway when the cold blows in from the north/NW. This area is just outside of the Urban heat island of Orlando. Luckily my yard barely escaped unscathed this go around. Fingers crossed no more freezes this year. 
 

[Brian M]

Bottomed out at 33.3 this morning, 35.8 the day before. If we only end up with one day below freezing (31 right before sunrise on 1/17) i consider that a win compared to the last few years. 

[Matthew92]

Wow, you guys in Central to South FL are so fortunate. This winter starkly reminds me how peninsular FL can be a whole different world (climate-wise) than the Panhandle. I remember how Jan 2014 was the worst winter I've seen here (17 degrees and a couple other nights in the low 20's in early Jan, with it hardly getting above freezing for a full day, then in late Jan the ice storm with temp not getting out of the 20's during the daytime along with light winter precip that sealed the fate for normally cold hardy palms like Phoenix dactylifera) and I think the lowest it got in the peninsula for Jan 2014 was about how cold it was this morning (32 degree line mostly north of Orlando). It comes down to how the angle the cold air is coming in from: as in January 1981, the low got to 17 degrees at my location, but Orlando got to around 21-22 degrees. It just seems to be quite rare these days for the dynamics to fully inject the arctic air down there because there's been plenty far south arctic air outbreaks (re: TX) lately, just not focused into the extreme Southeastern US.

It's interesting as what data I can find on the February 1835 freeze indicates it was much like the February 2021 TX Snowmageddon/Palmageddon (in terms of min low temps and duration), only focused right on the state of FL. It all depends on how the high/low pressures/jet streams set up to shunt that arctic air to which part of the deep south. Lately it has been TX/LA.

Edited January 22, 2024 by Matthew92

[Matthew92]

Hmmm... glad I kept my cold protection up today. Was supposed to be a light freeze at 29 deg tonight, but it's already 30 deg at 8:30pm 🥶 Could be one of those things where the temp bottoms out earlier in the night: but sometimes I've noticed those 2nd or 3rd night radiational freezes with these events can be underestimated in the forecast.

[kinzyjr]

25 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Hmmm... glad I kept my cold protection up today. Was supposed to be a light freeze at 29 deg tonight, but it's already 30 deg at 8:30pm 🥶 Could be one of those things where the temp bottoms out earlier in the night: but sometimes I've noticed those 2nd or 3rd night radiational freezes with these events can be underestimated in the forecast.

I've noticed the same thing with the second, third, and sometimes successive nights.  The overnight low here was supposed to be 48F, but it is approaching that as we speak here in the hills.  KLAL has already reached that mark.  Even KORL is sitting at 48F, and that part of Orlando is typically very resistant to radiational cooling.  A light wind is coming from the NNE, so at least it has to come across Lake Parker and Lake Bonny to get here.

[Matthew92]

10 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

I've noticed the same thing with the second, third, and sometimes successive nights.  The overnight low here was supposed to be 48F, but it is approaching that as we speak here in the hills.  KLAL has already reached that mark.  Even KORL is sitting at 48F, and that part of Orlando is typically very resistant to radiational cooling.  A light wind is coming from the NNE, so at least it has to come across Lake Parker and Lake Bonny to get here.

I guess I spoke too soon. About an hour after I posted, the temp bottomed out and slowly started rising. The coldest it was after midnight was 33 deg. 

[SeanK]

On 1/19/2024 at 10:03 AM, RedRabbit said:

 

Fits my experience in central FL. I4 seems to be the point that the gulf influence really kicks in.

[pj_orlando_z9b]

11 minutes ago, SeanK said:

Fits my experience in central FL. I4 seems to be the point that the gulf influence really kicks in.

The Space Coast and points South got a nice influence off the ocean this weekend too. Mid 40s Fri night and never below 60 after that. 

[D. Morrowii]

1 hour ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

The Space Coast and points South got a nice influence off the ocean this weekend too. Mid 40s Fri night and never below 60 after that. 

It seems like its been that way all winter too.    We’ve been warmer and the durations have been shorter. I’ll gladly take it! 

Looks like we have another front 9-10 days out? So far only looking at mid 40s but you never know until it gets here I guess.

[SubTropicRay]

In the new reality where winter ends around Valentine's Day and March freezes are non-existent, this winter is barely breathing.