Cyclone Ciarán (northwest Europe)

[UK_Palms]

So it looks like this storm system is going to smash straight into us in the next 12-24 hours. I was hoping it would head further south and go through France, but it looks like the eye of the storm will pass directly through central England now, with the worst winds on the southern end of its tail, affecting the south coast of England and northern France the worst.

 

The latest run on France’s AROME model has 150kmh+ winds over the Isles of Scilly and exposed parts of southern England. The Channel Islands of Guernsey and Jersey looks like they could be devastated, potentially with 180kmh winds.

AROME is a fairly accurate model in the shorter term, so I suspect this is how it will transpire. 200kmh+ winds off the coast of northwest France, which is pretty terrifying. The Met Office are forecasting 12-15 meter waves in the English Channel, which is insane for that area.

Close to record low values for air pressure are expected in southern England. Even lower than the great storm of 1987, which was truly devastating. The setup is slightly different this time round however.

 

The system is currently undergoing explosive cyclogensis as it rapidly intensifies to category 2 hurricane level off the coast of southwest England. By tonight it will be at category 3 level before it makes landfall.

 

This is very concerning for all the palms and exotics on the south coast of England, especially on the Isles of Scilly and Channel Islands. I suspect taller, older specimens will be lost during this event. It will need watching closely over the next 12 hours. Hopefully the forecasts downgrade it slightly as it gets closer, although they are more likely to upgrade if anything now. Very worrying. 100mph+ winds looking increasingly likely for the Isle of Wight now.

Edited November 1, 2023 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

Ciaran has reached category 3 ahead of schedule this afternoon, suggesting it may actually be more powerful than models are anticipating. It already has wind speeds of 115mph and is still undergoing explosive cyclogenesis out in the Atlantic, while it approaches southern England and the Bay of Biscay. This could develop into a category 4 cyclone by the time it makes landfall early tomorrow morning. That is worrying.

The outer bands of rain associated with this storm system are already starting to move into Cornwall now. However it won’t technically make landfall in southwest England until the early hours AM though.

 

Max wind speed on the AROME model appears to be 116mph, but that means we can probably expect 120mph winds in places. Still quite a bit of uncertainty about the track of this storm or just how intense it will actually be. I wouldn’t rule out 130mph winds in the English Channel now. The latest Met Office model run has 120mph winds.

 

This is looking like it may be a catastrophic event for the Channel Islands and especially Guernsey, where they are now expecting an 8-10 foot storm surge tomorrow morning and winds well over 100mph there. Potentially up to 125mph! Worrying times. They haven’t seen anything like this there since the Great Storm of 1987, which devastated southern England and northern France.

 

The Channel Islands have already declared a major incident this evening with the storm still about 12 hours away. I understand the RAF is on standby tonight. There will almost certainly be deaths in the Channel Islands from this event, as well as in coastal regions of southern England and northern France. People should not ignore the dangers that come with a storm of this magnitude.

 

The UK Met Office model is showing a 951 hPa for the eye as it passes over southern England tomorrow morning, although other models have the eye much further north, which in theory would also cause much more destruction in southern England.

 

 

We are going to be looking at record low air pressure for November and record wind speeds as well in most parts of southern England tomorrow. Lots of records will be broken tomorrow. We could even see the lowest hPa readings in over 200 years, potentially. So this is quite a significant event.

 

Official tornado watch/warnings have now been issued for southern England as well. I would expect some funnel clouds to touch down tomorrow, given that there was an F2 tornado that ripped off people’s roofs only a few days ago in Littlehampton. I wouldn't rule out an F3 touching down in southern England tomorrow.

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by UK_Palms

[kinzyjr]

@UK_Palms Stay safe over there!

[UK_Palms]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

@UK_Palms Stay safe over there!

Thanks pal.

The wind is starting to pick up a bit here now, but it shouldn't be too bad for me here really, or in London. Maybe 60mph winds at worst, I suspect. However it is a different story entirely for the south coast where many of the palms are located. I can't help but fear the worst for the ones on the Isles of Scilly and especially the ones on Guernsey in the Channel Islands. The latter of which may see 120-130mph winds, potentially.

Here are some of the Guernsey CIDP's that must be 100+ years old now. I'm hoping the winds don't take them down. They may actually bite the bullet, especially the one in the last photo.

 

It is now at category 4 strength with winds of up to 130mph. An RAF weather plane has flew over in the past hour and recorded a max wind speed of 128mph and it is still intensifying as it approaches land now. Time to batten down the hatches! We're probably about 2-3 hours away from it making landfall properly in Cornwall now, although it is already causing major issues in southwest England and the west coast of France!

 

There appears to be a sting jet present as well. That is what caused the 1987 storm event to be so destructive, due to a sting jet. So yet more cause for concern there.

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Aceraceae]

This could be the big one. Actual winds on the coast of Mexico from Otis were about half the storm rating. Max sustained wind of 81 and gust of 130. A buoy offshore recorded 114 winds and a gust of 205. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Aceraceae

[Foxpalms]

Another thing that could possibly happen is a new record for the New York to London flight time. Typically it takes 6 hours 50mins but the record of 4 hours 56 mins could potentially be broken with the Jetstream wind speeds at flight level well over 200mph.

[UK_Palms]

Cyclone Ciaran has now made landfall in Cornwall as a powerful category 4 wind cyclone. The November record for minimum hPa pressure has been broken with 50.5 mb recorded. This is also one of the lowest pressures ever recorded in England and the British Isles.

It looks like my area and London will be dodging a bullet in this event as the storm appears to be tracking a bit further south than models anticipated. That is much worse news for France and the Channel Islands however. South coast areas of England are in for a right thrashing still. Peak winds are around 3-4 hours away now.

 

Winds of 207kmh / 129mph have now been recorded in Brittany in western France. This is on the French mainland. The south side of the storm exhibits the strongest winds.

 

All-time record wind speeds are being set already in parts of France. 171kmh at Lanveoc beats the previous all-time record of 162kmh there in 1987.

 

Biblical events are already unfolding in the Channel Islands - lightning, hail, tornadoes, flooding etc and with the strongest winds still about 4 hours away yet at least.

 

Hail the size of golf balls in the Channel Islands already. 

 

The first tornado looks to have touched down as well. There looks to be significant structural damage.

 

Peak intensity is still about 4 hours away for most of us.

Edited November 2, 2023 by UK_Palms

[flplantguy]

It set a record for lowest pressure in November too.  And the month only just started.

[Foxpalms]

A few videos of the damage caused by the tornados. I wouldn't be surprised if there were or more, or more occur.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[UK_Palms]

Brittany in northwest France appears to have seen the strongest winds and most damage. Some incredible numbers...

• Maximum wind gust of 222kmh / 138mph at a buoy just off the coast of northwest France.
• Maximum wind gust actually on land of 207kmh / 129mph at Point Du Raz.
• Maximum sustained winds on land of 170kmh / 105mph also at Point Du Raz.
• 7 different locations/stations broke their all-time record wind-speed with some records going back to the 1890's.
• Over 1 million homes without power on Thursday

 

Entire window places/awnings ripped out in Brittany...

 

Entire forested areas almost completely levelled in Brittany...

 

How fast do 4 x 4 planks have to be travelling to impale concrete walls 20 foot above the ground?

 

Also 21.1 meter or 70 foot waves right off the coast of northwest France too! That is insane.

 

Significant damage in the Channel Islands with some houses having their roof ripped off completely and walls toppled...

 

Storm surge in Channel Islands

 

Storm surge in Devon

Edited November 3, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

The Jersey tornado has now been confirmed as an EF3 tornado the strongest in 70 years. This tornado also occurred at the same time the island was experiencing wind gusts of 104mph combined with it being in the dark. There also is quite a good chance it could have even been a low EF4, 50/50 or at the very least an EF3 on the high end. The estimated wind speed of the tornado is 161-186mph.

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Edited November 11, 2023 by Foxpalms

[kinzyjr]

A lot of devastation and destruction.  Hope the best for everyone impacted by this event.