Winter 23/24 in UK & Europe with an early freeze!

November 27, 2023

After the crappy winter last year, it seems we are going to be starting this winter with below average temperatures as well. Far from ideal. Thankfully it won’t be too extreme as it is quite early on, limiting the extent of cold, but it is still quite a significant cold wave either way. And this appears to be effecting almost the entire continent too.

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This is coming down from Scandinavia and the Siberian arctic. Any cold will be heavily moderated / watered down by the seas around the British Isles, before it arrives on these shores. Here are the ECMWF and GFS runs. They are very similar looking now… both rather cold and wintry.

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I don’t recall seeing daytime and highs and nighttime lows as poor as this in late November - early December before. A max of 3C / 38F for my area on Thursday. Some nighttime lows of -3C / 26F in there as well. That would qualify as a well below average spell in mid-January even.

It looks pretty chilly at London City airport in the city, although nowhere near as bad as my location, thanks to their UHI. The most protected areas of London should escape a frost I think.

It’s pretty much business as usual for the tropic of Cornwall. No frost expected for coastal towns. Lows down to 4-5C / 40-42F. What I would do to have those temps during this impending cold snap.

Look at the temperatures in the Scandinavian capitals of Oslo, Stockholm and Helsinki!!! It is currently -11C / 12F at 2pm with a ‘feels like’ temp of -19C / -2F in Helsinki! Even for these Scandinavian places, those temperatures are well below average too for late November - early December. This is where the cold air mass is really centred, but it is trying to push its way into central and Western Europe.

We have about 7-10 days of below average temps here in the UK under this setup, but we are likely looking at a significant warm up during the 2nd week of December going by the GFS ensembles. Likely a resurgence in the Atlantic regime, which is currently dead and cut off by the northern high pressure blocking.

Eastern Europe could get smoked bad further down the line however, although they are already in the freezer right now as it stands. But it could get waaaay worse come mid-December. Lots to keep an eye on. 👀

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Edited November 27, 2023 by UK_Palms

November 27, 2023

@UK_Palms We'll probably be seeing similar events on our side of the pond in the coming months. Hope it all goes well over there.

November 28, 2023

Well here we go. The cold arctic air is rapidly flooding in now from the north/northeast. It is pleasantly warm in the sunshine today, but I know it will be bitterly cold under clear skies tonight and every other night for the next 7-10 days.

Unfortunately there has been further upgrades to the extent of cold. Out here in the rural countryside, I could be looking at -5C / 23F on one or two nights, potentially. That is exceptionally cold for the first week of December. Possibly even a date record minimum in contention to be beaten. Daytime maxes look appalling as well with some days barely above freezing. Nothing too damaging for palms though, yet…

There is still a lot up in the air and yet to be resolved in regards to how cold it will get, how long it will last and just how far into southern Europe the cold will extend. Either way this will effect the whole continent pretty much, but in terms of departure from average, the UK is right up there amongst the worst effected. Some scenarios have had Spain getting bud very hard early next week. Again there is a lot to be resolved still.

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As with most winter freezes and arctic airmass intrusions, it brings cold but dry conditions. The latest ECMWF precipitation forecasts show a very dry setup with next to no rainfall or snow. So it will be a pretty dry freeze, in areas that get hit. Coastal regions, especially in the southwest, won’t have to worry about this cold snap altogether.

More to follow…

Edited November 28, 2023 by UK_Palms

November 29, 2023

Daytime maxes (approximate) for Tuesday 28th November. You can see the gradient of cold moving in from the north and east.

Scandinavia has been freezing for weeks now and temperatures as low as -35C / 31F have been recorded already. This is an exceptionally cold airmass that has taken hold of Northern Europe.

Not a single part of Scandinavia has escaped the subzero temps over the past 24-48 hours. Everywhere has been subzero. The rogue 2.4C reading is false obviously.

Even on the southernmost tip of Norway, temperatures have fallen to -6C / 20C at the coast even! Even there they now have weeks of subzero temps potentially. This coming winter may even knock out the Trachycarpus in the mildest parts of Scandinavia.

Germany is also freezing cold. Pretty much everywhere in Germany has recorded freezing temperatures over the past 24 hours. Many places have been below freezing since Monday now and will remain subzero from here on now as far as the forecast will go.

Subzero temps in pretty much all capital cities across central and Eastern Europe form here on…

Berlin…

Warsaw…

Kyiv…

Minsk…

Moscow…

Currently 6C / 43F here at midday, but I will be getting a frost here tonight and every night for the rest of the week from here on…

Northern England is already feeling the chill with some places seeing their coldest November night since the infamous 2010 freeze. Thankfully I remained frost free here last night, just about. Different story tonight however.

Huge snowfalls in parts of Austria, Hungary and Germany…

It looks like an Atlantic resurgence next week, which should bring some relief to the UK, France, Netherlands etc. The latest GFS Operational model has temps pushing 60F again in parts of England in a week’s time. We will see. Central and Eastern Europe would still remain in the freezer however.

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More to follow…

Edited November 29, 2023 by UK_Palms

November 30, 2023

Okay the cold from this freeze is biting now. I am at -1.4C / 29F at 02:30am, despite having some cloud cover earlier. Other places in my area are even lower.

London has had no cloud cover all night and temperatures have crashed to freezing, even in the centre. The official Met Office station at St James Park is reporting +0.6C / 33F at 2am. Nearby Battersea Heliport is reporting +0.8C / 33F.

The Ventnor-Shanklin-Sandown area of the Isle of Wight is holding out okay, but not as well as I hoped. Temps down to 3-4C / 40F.

The Torbay / English Riviera in Devon has a lot of palm trees for a reason. Because it rarely ever gets subzero there. Coastal areas around Torquay, Paignton and Brixham are holding out at 5C / 41F. Slightly cooler further inland.

Plymouth not doing too badly either in Devon. Definite microclimate around the central coastal area. A fair bit cooler further inland, mainly due to elevation.

Descending into Cornwall, the temps become very mild throughout the peninsula. Even quite some distance inland, there are still 6-7C / 44F temps. The mildest spots of mainland Cornwall are 8C / 47F.

That Falmouth microclimate is looking pretty pronounced tonight. Temps of 7-8C / 45F around the town and harbour. Even widespread 6-7C / 43F temps inland as well.

Scilly Isles marginally warmer, but not much in it. Holding up at around 8C / 47F.

Edited November 30, 2023 by UK_Palms

November 30, 2023

@UK_Palms + @Foxpalms

Hopefully no serious damage to anything for you over there.

November 30, 2023

That spread is pretty large. Surprised that London tanked so fast with the urban heat island effect. Hopefully it's a random one for you and not the harbinger of things to come.

November 30, 2023

3 hours ago, flplantguy said:

That spread is pretty large. Surprised that London tanked so fast with the urban heat island effect. Hopefully it's a random one for you and not the harbinger of things to come.

The temp here has held above freezing with the coldest part of the garden reading 32.2f with 88% humidity and I can't see any frost in the garden. The the weather station near the house and the one near my pond, mulch and tree canopy microclimate haven't gone below 34f. The Covent garden weather stations usually are slightly warmer than here so I'm surprised they hit 0c. The areas right next to the river Thames and the city of London have not gone below 32f either. It's not really surprising though considering that the temp was 35f at 12am and it has only dropped 3f in 7 hours under clear skies and a -7c/19f 850hpa temp. I doubt this freeze will have damaged anything in central London I have a few zone 10 house plants and flowers outside which have no damaged or discoloration on them.

November 30, 2023

Code red! ⛳

This is worse than I was expecting. After clear skies from about 10pm - sunrise, of course it then clouds over completely today! Daytime recovery/solar heating has been completely restricted here. And of course the skies are due to clear later this evening, allowing the temps to plummet again. It is literally the worst case scenario for the time of year. I am currently reporting 0.9C / 34F at midday here. What an absolute joke. Never known this before in November!

9 hours ago, flplantguy said:

That spread is pretty large. Surprised that London tanked so fast with the urban heat island effect. Hopefully it's a random one for you and not the harbinger of things to come.

London usually holds up better than it did last night, but having clear skies all night long and a near record low hPa airmass for the time of year, it is not surprising London got so cold there. Even Battersea Heliport right by the Thames went down to -0.3C / 31F last night. That is colder than anything during the 18/19 and 19/20 winters in central London!!! So this is certainly a significant arctic blast for this early on! The worst is likely yet to come as well.

London is certainly fairing better than my location today in terms of daytime recovery. Temperatures are up to 5C / 41F in the mildest spots. So the UHI is quite noticeable there still, despite the cold night last night.

The ultra mild east coast of Kent is flexing again. Temps around 7C / 45F right by the coast in the Margate/Broadstairs/Ramsgate area of Kent. That area is right in the path of the easterly cold airmass and close to the European continent too, so that is significant to see that area so mild. They didn’t drop below 0C / 32F last winter there either, despite it being a horrendous winter for us! Looking very mild there again today, at least compared to my location!

Edited November 30, 2023 by UK_Palms

December 1, 2023

The high here was 6c today. Temps are already down to 34f dropping at a rate of 1f every 3 hours. Not bad considering we have clear skies and subzero 850hpa temps. Even Ventnor is only at 35f right now. Cornwall has cloud cover and rain tonight so no chance of 0c in costal parts of Cornwall. The 850hpa temp there is also only -2c compared to -7c here. Portsmouth is 33f at the moment. Ramsgate and Margate have partial cloud cover at the moment so it's still mild however it's forecasted to change to clear skies there. Very cold weather on the Scottish mountains. A few microclimates on the south western Scottish islands are 37f at the moment. Last winter they only dropped to 29f and most years don't go below 30f an ideal place to try to take the record for the nikau palm at the highest latitude despite being at 57N!

Edited December 1, 2023 by Foxpalms

December 1, 2023

Current temps in London at 1.30am Ignore those two weather stations circled in red they have a track record for being dodgy and not showing accurate temps compared to others nearby. Sometimes I have seen both those weather stations be 5-7f or more lower than nearby ones.

December 1, 2023

Looks like the urban heat island was working tonight, only a 1f drop in temp after 7hours of radiational cooling under clear skies and a now -8c 850hpa temp. That area in Kent held onto cloud cover all night so the low there was 38f. Luckily no frost here. There is a light breeze and I'm pretty sure that's the main reason certain areas in the outskirts of London haven't dropped that much.

And on todays episode of why most weather forecasts for London are crap...

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What the temp actually was

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December 1, 2023

I only recovered to +3.7C / 38F yesterday afternoon, making it my coldest November day since 2010. Quite fitting for the final day of the month. Thankfully it didn’t get as cold as forecast overnight, with a slow drop, despite the clear skies most of the night. I bottomed out at -2.5C / 27F eventually. Still pretty crap though. These were the 3pm temps yesterday lol… 🙄

London has actually done pretty poorly during this ‘freeze’. Battersea Heliport went down to +0.3C / 33F last night, which is the mildest reliable station in the capital. The station at St James Park, which is right out in the exposed open, went down to -0.1C / 32F. Heathrow out in the western suburbs went down to -1.4C / 29F. In the grand scheme of things however, these are not damaging temperatures at all. Shows just how mild we actually have it here as this is supposedly a ‘significant’ cold snap.

That area in Kent is off the scale in terms of microclimate. I took this screenshot at 2am when it was -2C / 28F here. Coastal regions there didn’t really drop below +5C / 41F, which is just ridiculous for that eastern location, just across the sea from the Netherlands. It seems to regularly outperform parts of Cornwall even, as was the case last winter too. It even outperforms Ventnor on the Isle of Wight! I am going to start referring to this area as the ‘tropic of Thanet’. No surprise there are huge Phoenix Canariensis and Washingtonia in that area.

Plymouth again with a notable microclimate standing out, surrounded by an otherwise cool, frost hollow area.

The cold has properly punched through to southwest England and the Scilly Isles now. They recorded their coldest night of the season so far, dropping to an exceptionally cool +5.6C / 42F last night at St Mary’s lol. Those poor people. 🤣

Meanwhile around 60% of Europe is snow covered currently, which is insane for late November / early December. This will further impact temperatures in central and Eastern Europe moving forward, especially at night.

Edited December 1, 2023 by UK_Palms

December 1, 2023

Apparently this was the warmest November in 15 years here; indeed it was insanely warm overall, especially the first three weeks. Yet, last week was one of the coldest, with many areas breaking their low temperature records for November! It was about 5C in coastal areas and 2C inland in Attica. Some areas went down to -2C. Crazy November.

December 2, 2023