Texas 2024

[KsLouisiana]

5 minutes ago, _nevi said:

ICON = worst case scenario for Texas. It's always been consistently colder than the other models though — hope with all your souls that this thing is off its rocker.

 

Thank y'all for the updates. Im too busy to be watching the models today

[SubTropicRay]

9 minutes ago, KsLouisiana said:

Thank y'all for the updates. Im too busy to be watching the models today

Good thing the ICON model is garbage.   The Canadian is suffering from the same bipolar behavior.

[amh]

1 hour ago, _nevi said:

That was actually the warmest run in a while from that model. Subsequent runs have since come in colder.

Just one of many models, though — others like GFS, EURO aren't as severe (knock on wood).

I'm hoping for GFS results, or just a repeat of December '22 with 10F to 12F. 13F to 14F is a  normal winter for me, but 10 or below is very unpleasent.

I'll be protecting my in-ground Sabal uresana, a few Sabal brazoriensis, and citrus, but the Sabal mexicanas will be sacrificed.

Gonna have to find space for about 250 ft² of potted plants inside my house.

Tuesday night with no wind or cloud cover will allow for some scary radiational cooling.

[amh]

8 hours ago, RFun said:

Texas has not been the place to be to avoid severe cold or longer cold spells in recent years.  We'll know more in a few days.  It does appear this arctic blast will be tempered a bit.

On the positive side of this, hardy palm growers can benefit by selling seeds or offshoots of survivors of these severe cold spells/longer cold snaps.  There is a market for finding hardier varieties of palms, etc.  There definitely have been some "tests" in recent years that have exposed some things we didn't previously know.

Even northern Mexico has been sharing our droughts and cold. 

[Xenon]

NWS has finally pulled back on the lows as expected. No longer looking like an apocalyptic event a la 2021 or 2022 but more like a decade-level freeze (which I guess is good considering the 30-50 year freezes in the past 3 winters..?). 

NWS has urban Houston at 23F Tues AM and 28F Wed AM

IAH 21F/22F

Hobby 23/25F

Galveston 29F/32F

 

Looks like RGV might mostly escape this 

McAllen 34F/33F

Brownsville 34F/35F

 

[_nevi]

1 minute ago, Xenon said:

NWS has finally pulled back on the lows as expected. No longer looking like an apocalyptic event a la 2021 or 2022 but more like a decade-level freeze (which I guess is good considering the 30-50 year freezes in the past 3 winters..?). 

NWS has urban Houston at 23F Tues AM and 28F Wed AM

IAH 21F/22F

Hobby 23/25F

Galveston 29F/32F

 

Looks like RGV might mostly escape this 

McAllen 34F/33F

Brownsville 34F/35F

 

I mean, if the event HAS to occur, then I'd take this easily over what the ICON has been spitting out.

[Robert Cade Ross]

4 hours ago, _nevi said:

ICON = worst case scenario for Texas.

 

lol (IF) this happened that would be interesting 

[amh]

Started both generators today, so I'll have some power if things go wrong.

[Sabal_Louisiana]

Looks like the Arctic surface high will settle right over Texas and LA by Wednesday morning. Thats where the core of the cold will reside before modifying and moving east.

Anomalies in this region now look as bad as those of the central plains.

But Mb levels for the high by then show no higher than 1034 or 1036 mb, However, the trough digs deep. It wont be historic like one of those of the 80s but bad enough.

Last Euro (for now) shows slightly warmer temps than the GFS for Tue and Wed. For the sake of palm survival, 4 or 5 degrees F can make a big difference. Im hoping for that scenario,

With several days to go, we shall see.

Reinforcement of cold the following weekend is not so good either. Well down into the 20s for the NW Gulf coast region.

 

[Meangreen94z]

What was supposed to be a dry event in central Texas now includes freezing rain. Great.  Lows of 14°F, and 15°F Monday and Tuesday for me.

[SeanK]

KHOU Weather Jan 11th show that NoNOU is z8b and SoHOU is z9a. Temps are in the normal (-3 sigma) for the winter.

 

[_nevi]

On 1/11/2024 at 2:33 PM, Cade said:

lol (IF) this happened that would be interesting 

That model has since came in milder ... but it (along with CMC) still shows the coldest scenarios of all the models so far.  Even the newer high-res short-ranges so far (HRRR and NAM3k) are running milder than ICON/CMC so far.

[Meangreen94z]

Our predicted low has fluctuated between 13-15°F tomorrow night over the last 12 hours. I also noticed we now warm up to 69°F/39°F on Thursday, only to drop back down to 24°F Friday night. Then a week of rain with warmer temperatures.

[_nevi]

On 1/11/2024 at 11:15 AM, Xenon said:

NWS has finally pulled back on the lows as expected. 

NWS has urban Houston at 23F Tues AM and 28F Wed AM

I'm cautiously optimistic that the pullbacks will continue. 

The latest NAM3km, while still cold, is actually a bit milder than the NWS forecast from the 11th.

But I'm real interested in how the latest full 48 HRRR came in even milder than NAM. Look at that "Ozark shadowing". If that verifies, Houston stays upper 20s for Tuesday morning. 

 

 

Edited January 14 by _nevi

[KsLouisiana]

My beauty before I chop all the leaves off so I can protect it better:(

[Hombre de Palmas]

7 hours ago, KsLouisiana said:

My beauty before I chop all the leaves off so I can protect it better:(

Sorry for that.

I hope for the best.

[KsLouisiana]

1 hour ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

Sorry for that.

I hope for the best.

Thank ya! I bit the bullet and took it all off. Wrapped with Christmas lights and wrapped the s#*t out of it

[metalfan]

Is it really snowing today in Houston?

When it gets to 34F in Brownsville you know things are bad

[Sabal_Louisiana]

One nasty cold wave. Upper 20s at Brownsville and 29 even at S. Padre Island.

[KsLouisiana]

On 1/14/2024 at 6:31 PM, Hombre de Palmas said:

 

How did y'alls areas do in the freeze? Around here washingtonia robusta look a little brown but everything else seems to be looking okay so far. All the phoenix types seem to be undamaged 

[Chester B]

Everything seems fine at my location.  I’m in NE Houston just outside beltway 8. 
 

One night at 19 and the other at 23. The coldest day was 35F. 
 

Now we’ve been just hammered by rain. Mild flooding in my area but it’s 70f and tomorrow is supposed to be dry. 

[Chester B]

Pretty hot here lately with a string in the 80s  at my location.  One thing I've noticed is that it is windy at my house most days.  Is this typical of Houston, or TX in general?  Are you all experiencing this?  I'm a few hundred feet from the south end of Lake Houston, and am wondering if that long open narrow stretch of water is causing a windy or breezy microclimate at my place.

[Chester B]

We finally got some rain at my location.  I can't remember the last time we got any aside from a little drizzle.  Says we record 0.45" overnight and I can see the difference already this morning.  Currently sitting at a sticky 76F.

[Robert Cade Ross]

Rip - Webster area 

[RFun]

17 hours ago, Cade said:

Rip - Webster area 

Those trees still had plenty of years of life.  And they will still make excellent posts for birds and they can accommodate various insects, etc.

[Chester B]

How much rain did you all get today?  I see parts of Atascocita/Humble got around 8", I think I probably got half of that.  Serious flooding in the yard though.

[Chester B]

Well, at least for me this Tropical storm/Cyclone Alberto turned into a nothing burger at my house.  The only notable thing was the last half of yesterday we dropped to about 80F/27C and had heavy clouds for most of the day.  I had good downpour in the afternoon for about 20 minutes and the rest of the day was a bit of drizzle/spitting here and there  Basically just enough rain to give everything a water and a break from the sun.

[Xenon]

5 hours ago, Chester B said:

Well, at least for me this Tropical storm/Cyclone Alberto turned into a nothing burger at my house.  The only notable thing was the last half of yesterday we dropped to about 80F/27C and had heavy clouds for most of the day.  I had good downpour in the afternoon for about 20 minutes and the rest of the day was a bit of drizzle/spitting here and there  Basically just enough rain to give everything a water and a break from the sun.

The whole thing was such a let down after the core of the system shifted south 😭. Would've been nice get at least 4-6" over 2-3 days. West Houston on i-10 got about 2"...I'll take it, better than nothing I guess. 

Hopefully the high pressure heat dome stays away this summer and we can get those typical afternoon thunderstorms 

[Chester B]

My ground was starting to dry out a bit so that was good timing., everything looks pretty happy now.  I got about an inch, but there is more rain in the forecast.  Would be nice to get some showers a couple times a week to help out my garden in the first year.

[ahosey01]

I got a combined 7" from Monday up until Saturday evening.  We got a big suprise 2.5" on Saturday.  Dry since then, though.

[Chester B]

Wow that's a ton.  We got a couple of late afternoon thunderstorms this past week, that probably dumped about an 0.5-1 inches each.  The grass is still growing like crazy.

[Xenon]

Seems like there's a real posibility for Beryl to end up somewhere in Texas in 7-8 days??? I wouldn't mind a rainmaker tropical storm...nothing crazy like TS Allison or Harvey but 10 inches would be great 

[Robert Cade Ross]

10 hours ago, Xenon said:

Seems like there's a real posibility for Beryl to end up somewhere in Texas in 7-8 days??? I wouldn't mind a rainmaker tropical storm...nothing crazy like TS Allison or Harvey but 10 inches would be great 

Hurricane party 🙃

[RedRabbit]

12 hours ago, Xenon said:

Seems like there's a real posibility for Beryl to end up somewhere in Texas in 7-8 days??? I wouldn't mind a rainmaker tropical storm...nothing crazy like TS Allison or Harvey but 10 inches would be great 

We need to keep a close eye on it at least. Early in the season to be seeing this!

[Xenon]

WOW Beryl is now cat 5

[flplantguy]

Weakening is expected as it makes its way, but that means the core structure, if it holds together, has the capacity to be high energy even at cat 1 (relatively speaking).  No matter the expected strength those storms do odd things, so i would be preparing as if its a major even if they say lower. I hope your all prepared!

[JLM]

Beryl has improved its core structure this afternoon as it grazes Jamaica. This is due in part to Jamaica's topography.

Beryl *should* weaken further as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning. Beryl is currently expected to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm, but it should maintain/strengthen slightly as it continues towards the northwest. It is currently forecasted to restrengthen to a hurricane before making landfall anywhere from northeastern Mexico to southern Texas. 

Beryl's track in the Gulf of Mexico will be highly dependent on where Beryl crosses the Yucatan, and how strong Beryl is when it emerges. Note that if Beryl were to track further north towards the central or eastern coast of Texas, it would likely be much stronger. 

The main takeaway here is that folks in along the Mexican Gulf Coast and the Texas Coast (especially southern TX) should begin thinking about hurricane preparation and monitor the forecast by the National Hurricane Center over the next several days. There is no reason to panic about Beryl right now, just a wait and see game.

[Chester B]

Looks like the RGV is going to miss it and Houston will be on the dirty side.  Fun times.

[Robert Cade Ross]

3 hours ago, Chester B said:

Looks like the RGV is going to miss it and Houston will be on the dirty side.  Fun times.

lol we will have fun….

[Xenon]

Dreams do come true guysss!! Looks like the garden might get the 6-10" of rain I wished for 🤩😍 Looks like some more tropical moisture is getting pulled in behind the storm too 

This is the best forecast you can ask for in July (can you tell I hate the July lull in our summer wet season?)! I'm back in Htown for the long weekend and just applied the second round of soil sulfur for the summer today and the fertilizer is going down tomorrow. Grow plants grow grow grow