Polar Vortex

[teddytn]

20 hours ago, Palmerr said:

Bro i saw this and freaked the frick out but then i realized this was in january. LOL

😂 looking good so far this winter, and the whole southeast is due for a mild one 🤞🏻

[DTS]

7 hours ago, teddytn said:

😂 looking good so far this winter, and the whole southeast is due for a mild one 🤞🏻

hopefully i have a mild winter too (meaning not dipping below the low negatives 💀)

[ChicagoPalma]

23 hours ago, jwitt said:

I have had the "vibe" for multiple months now.  I hope I am wrong.

But I see this pic,  this past summer, etc ... I get 80s vibes where things tracked up and over the SW.  Sometimes ending in Texas or further east. 

My chile is still blooming, incredibly late(for Rio Rancho).  In the eighties(I won't say what year), I had tomatoes until Christmas(in Rio Rancho )

Just a feeling. 

 

I still have tomatoes growing right now and usually those tomatoes die off around like october 15 but this year nothing has died, not even the peppers died during our light frost not too long ago, and right now it feels like august in Chicago so everything is going great! I was even surprised my plumeria did not suffer any cold damage and all my cannas and peppers are still in full bloom. So this might be our first above-average sorta warm winter right now.

[MarcusH]

On 10/28/2024 at 10:40 PM, jwitt said:

This thread has nearly 800 posts, 34000 views in ten months! Wow!

And I learned an avocado survived 23f. 

I know right ? Lol.  Everybody's paying attention to winter. I hope you're wrong with your feelings about the 1980s. If it keeps warm like this and we get an artic blast in the teens again I can only imagine some marginal palms not going to make it without protection.  

[Robert Cade Ross]

2 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

I know right ? Lol.  Everybody's paying attention to winter. I hope you're wrong with your feelings about the 1980s. If it keeps warm like this and we get an artic blast in the teens again I can only imagine some marginal palms not going to make it without protection.  

Life must prevail lol Texas will be a state  of hardy palms then 😉

[jwitt]

2 hours ago, MarcusH said:

I know right ? Lol.  Everybody's paying attention to winter. I hope you're wrong with your feelings about the 1980s. If it keeps warm like this and we get an artic blast in the teens again I can only imagine some marginal palms not going to make it without protection.  

I checked the winter lows for the year I am thinking

Albuquerque 12f

Atlanta 9f

Dallas 10f

San Antonio 17f

All looked very short duration. So not crazy. 

I hope I am wrong and we all have a good palmy winter.

[Robert Cade Ross]

10 minutes ago, jwitt said:

I checked the winter lows for the year I am thinking

Albuquerque 12f

Atlanta 9f

Dallas 10f

San Antonio 17f

All looked very short duration. So not crazy. 

I hope I am wrong and we all have a good palmy winter.

You have cursed Houston with a low of 12° now  😉🤣

[jwitt]

8 hours ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

You have cursed Houston with a low of 12° now  😉🤣

Houston =20f

[MarcusH]

On 10/31/2024 at 5:42 AM, jwitt said:

Houston =20f

17f for SA. That's even colder than last year.  I hope not Jim. 

[jwitt]

3 hours ago, MarcusH said:

17f for SA. That's even colder than last year.  I hope not Jim. 

It snowed in Hawaii earlier this week if that's any consolation.

[MarcusH]

On 11/1/2024 at 7:48 PM, jwitt said:

It snowed in Hawaii earlier this week if that's any consolation.

Looks like we get some temperature drops in the mid 30s this week and according to my AccuWeather app 28F next week. I know it's still far out but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets in the 20s. The lows are lower this fall compared to last year in fall so far.  I bet this winter is full of surprises Jim. 

[jwitt]

28 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Looks like we get some temperature drops in the mid 30s this week and according to my AccuWeather app 28F next week. I know it's still far out but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets in the 20s. The lows are lower this fall compared to last year in fall so far.  I bet this winter is full of surprises Jim. 

Might flirt with teens here tomorrow night.  Nothing abnormal for here though, although November was much colder than normal.  About ten days after that Hawaii snow......

11/7/2024

[NBTX11]

55 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Looks like we get some temperature drops in the mid 30s this week and according to my AccuWeather app 28F next week. I know it's still far out but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets in the 20s. The lows are lower this fall compared to last year in fall so far.  I bet this winter is full of surprises Jim. 

National weather service isn’t showing anything below 37 for San Antonio. Which puts us in mid December with no freezes and nothing close to a freeze. 

[DTS]

So far, I'm only going to get down to 17 degrees for a day, which isn't too bad...

[Robert Cade Ross]

I may have found the holy grail of greater Houston area majesty palms today in Pearland … huge 12’+ palm I’ve marked the location and will ask the owner more about it tomorrow! 

[Las Palmas Norte]

8 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

 ... I’ve marked the location and will ask the owner more about it tomorrow! 

Like this?

 

[ChrisA]

Possible frost Wednesday morning, not bad at all! 🤞

 

[Manalto]

We're pretty similar here in Mobile, the icebox of the Gulf Coast.

[MarcusH]

19 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

National weather service isn’t showing anything below 37 for San Antonio. Which puts us in mid December with no freezes and nothing close to a freeze. 

They updated my AccuWeather app . No more upper 20s but NWS released a freeze warning for my area NE side of SA. 

[Palmerr]

On 10/28/2024 at 1:06 PM, jwitt said:

They cannot predict weather 7 days out accurately.  Just saying....

Better than nothing buddy.  Also yes they can predict 7 days, maybe off a few degrees but most long range forecasts are right (A good amount of times) Appreciate forecasters for keeping you safe and informed or else yeah... most storms like hurricanes and tornadoes would prob have at least 10x more deaths than what we have now.

[Palmerr]

and what i mean by long range forecasts it the Storm prediction center 1 month and 1-3 month outlooks not the accuweather 3 month forecast with daily temps those are examples of what could happen they never will ever be right in fact some can be off 50 degrees

[Palmerr]

On 10/28/2024 at 1:06 PM, jwitt said:

They cannot predict weather 7 days out accurately.  Just saying....

Another thing to note this is a very unrealistic scenario of course it could go down to -500F and the rest of the days in that 3 month forecast be 85 (average being 80) and still have above average. Long range forecasts like noaas have a wider area of uncertainty and the longer the model run goes the less accurate it will be right yes but this scenario is for the entire winter and is based on large scale weather patterns and how they operate to give you a perecnt chance of it being above or below so you can go wayyyy below for 3 weeks like 20 highs 10 lows (60 being average high and 40 being average low) but as long as the rest of the three month forecast is at or above average it will still say above average cause its not talking about the small details like weeks its talking about the whole winter which makes the forecast more accurate (Also the fact these larger weather systems and patters are easier to predict and to prove my point on this read this interesting article! (Not trying to go at you just trying to teach you more about this stuff since first off you like in NM 7B where temps fluctuate a lot and you could have a low -10 when your in.. 7B so yeah here! Why should I trust scientists’ climate projections for 50 or 100 years from now when they can’t accurately forecast the weather more than 2 weeks from now? | NOAA Climate.gov

[jwitt]

32 minutes ago, Palmerr said:

Better than nothing buddy.  Also yes they can predict 7 days, maybe off a few degrees but most long range forecasts are right (A good amount of times) Appreciate forecasters for keeping you safe and informed or else yeah... most storms like hurricanes and tornadoes would prob have at least 10x more deaths than what we have now.

Disagree.

Palmageddon and 2011 were not predicted as severe 2 days out.  Many caught off guard.

[jwitt]

36 minutes ago, Palmerr said:

and what i mean by long range forecasts it the Storm prediction center 1 month and 1-3 month outlooks not the accuweather 3 month forecast with daily temps those are examples of what could happen they never will ever be right in fact some can be off 50 degrees

They(forecasters)seemed to have missed the bullseye by several degrees going the other way for the first month.  So yeah, their forecasting sucks up to this point.  But who knows, maybe December and January will be exceptionally mild.  Not holding my breath! 

[DTS]

getting down to 13 degrees in a couple of days, suprisingly not too bad...

[CascadiaPalms]

...back to our traditional PNW winter, although I will say not seeing 10 straight days of rain/clouds is nice. 

 

[ChrisA]

The lowest temp I saw on my home weather station was 39F. Tonight's forecast  is for 38F, so should be no issue.  All plants with the exception of a late flowering tropical milkweed (Asclepias curassavica), are untouched with zero protection.  The milkweed's newest leaves look just slightly darkened, but the flowers are unscathed.

[Swolte]

On 12/10/2024 at 4:45 PM, jwitt said:

Palmageddon and 2011 were not predicted as severe 2 days out.  Many caught off guard.

Thanks to weather reports, I was preparing for the worst 8 days before it hit 3F (16th of Feb 2021). This thread and a later one by Collectorpalms are a scary read for those who knew where to look. The signs of something bad in the making were there early.  

 

[Silas_Sancona]

44 minutes ago, Swolte said:

Thanks to weather reports, I was preparing for the worst 8 days before it hit 3F (16th of Feb 2021). This thread and a later one by Collectorpalms are a scary read for those who knew where to look. The signs of something bad in the making were there early.  

 

Yep, as referenced over in the other PV thread in the WX section here, signs were pretty clear trouble was brewing, ..quite ahead of the '21 event.. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stratospheric-warming-winter-weather-coming/

Just gotta pay attention, and know where to look for the right info..
 

[jwitt]

3 hours ago, Swolte said:

Thanks to weather reports, I was preparing for the worst 8 days before it hit 3F (16th of Feb 2021). This thread and a later one by Collectorpalms are a scary read for those who knew where to look. The signs of something bad in the making were there early.  

 

I know the cold was forecast. What I was saying is that it was not predicted to be as cold as it turned out to be.  Even your forecast you posted on 2/10/21 missed the cold you "actually" saw by almost ten degrees. 

And 2 days out you were somewhat happy with the forecast

 

[Swolte]

Yes, agreed, there was a degree of uncertainty and in this case it could have been 10 degrees warmer (still terrible). However, in practical terms, the potential (risk) for devastation was there and signaled many to action. By that time, I was mostly a spectator. I had done what I could. But point taken!

[jwitt]

@SwolteWe had an actual meteorologist warning, and he is missed(collectorpalms).  He did not waver on the severity. 

That said, the NWS and other services did miss the forecasting as they have previously. 

That Texas event had me change my planning for the future.  So it was felt far and wide!

[Xenon]

I was already photographing everything I could in Houston 4-5 days out for posterity/last days in Htown thread. I think it already sank in that the world was ending by then 😆. I was fully expecting something closer to 10F....and in the end it was "only" 15F. Not that the difference really matters RIP

[JeskiM]

February 16th 2021 @ 7:06 AM I took this picture of my (mostly trusty) thermometer. 

Celsius on left and Farenheit on the right.... -9 F. Never thought I'd ever see those temps here in Georgetown TX. Later that day we left our house due to no power and went to a family member's house who had power. 

I lived half my life in the north and it definitely felt like sub zero temps. 

-Matt

 

[Las Palmas Norte]

21 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

...I lived half my life in the north and it definitely felt like sub zero temps. 

Where I live in Canada (coastal Vancouver Island), there's never been temperatures 🌡 that cold.

 

[amh]

5 hours ago, JeskiM said:

February 16th 2021 @ 7:06 AM I took this picture of my (mostly trusty) thermometer. 

Celsius on left and Farenheit on the right.... -9 F. Never thought I'd ever see those temps here in Georgetown TX. Later that day we left our house due to no power and went to a family member's house who had power. 

I lived half my life in the north and it definitely felt like sub zero temps. 

-Matt

 

It was subzero in 2021, I live in a cold sink just north of San Antonio and there were multiple temperature measurements below zero in my neighborhood. 

[DTS]

10 degrees out right now, and of course my car's remote start doesn't work 😠

[Chester B]

1 hour ago, DTS said:

10 degrees out right now, and of course my car's remote start doesn't work 😠

Just as an FYI preheating your car in cold weather is not good for your car and such a terrible practice.  Start it up and drive away it will warm up quickly and is easier on it.  Look it up - lots of articles on it.  This is coming from a Canadian.

[Las Palmas Norte]

Warming up the car/truck engine before driving away more than a minute, is no longer effective and provides no further benefits. There's no damage or harm to running it longer, only for human comfort and perhaps de-fogging or defrosting inside widows. A good idea before driving.

[Palmerr]

On 12/10/2024 at 5:45 PM, jwitt said:

Disagree.

Palmageddon and 2011 were not predicted as severe 2 days out.  Many caught off guard.

Yeah but are they common? Nope these large mishaps dont happen often at all thats the thing errors happen all the time just sometimes they are big