Polar Vortex

[MarcusH]

Here we go again. Another severe freeze warning issued for most parts of Texas for the coming week.  Lows in the mid to low 20s.  Are you guys prepared?  Any changes in choosing palms ? 

[Las Palmas Norte]

We're going to be getting a hit here too which is pushing down from Alaska. It looks to  be prolonged cold as well. That seems a bit unusual for an El Niño year. Up until now, our low has been 30°F / -1°C. 

 

Edited January 9 by Las Palmas Norte

[teddytn]

Tentatively looking at negatives again here for the second year in a row. Perfect example of why people should take the zone changes with a grain of salt. We moved to “7b” and are looking at two 6b winters in a row

[PaPalmTrees]

Here's what it's gonna be like where I live in Pennsylvania

[PaPalmTrees]

17 minutes ago, teddytn said:

Tentatively looking at negatives again here for the second year in a row. Perfect example of why people should take the zone changes with a grain of salt. We moved to “7b” and are looking at two 6b winters in a row

I agree 100% with you

[fr8train]

From 70 on Thursday, to a low of 15 Monday ):

 

[MarcusH]

I guess we're in a cold cycle for a while.  They should change the new hardiness zone map again lol it's so inaccurate.  The worst part of the cold front is it's going to be a wet one at least here in San Antonio.  I thought El Nino would bring us milder winters oh boy , we were wrong. 

[JohnT]

Really dislike when this happens! Interesting that perhaps the southeast won’t be seeing too low of temperatures, fingers crossed. 
 

[WSimpson]

I'm looking OK here relative to some other people . I hope I don't get forecasted lower . I really don't feel like protecting my tall  Washy lol . What a pain ! I protect my Washy at 15F . Hopefully I can maintain a 9A but this forecast could easily change for the worst .

Jan 8th

50°

27°

 

 

Today 

61°

38°

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 10th

51°

31°

 

 

Jan 11th

55°

32°

 

 

Jan 12th

52°

40°

 

 

Jan13th 

45°

29°

 

 

Jan 14th

43°

32°

 

 

Jan15th

46°

30°

 

 

Jan 16th

33°

24°

 

 

Jan 17th

37°

26°

 

 

Jan 18th

44°

30°

 

 

Jan 19th

45°

30°

 

 

Jan 20th

47°

32°

 

 

Jan21th

49°

35°

 

 

Jan22th

52°

38°

 

 

Jan 23rd

55°

28°

 

 

Jan24th

41°

26°

 

 

Jan25th

40°

28°

 

 

Jan26th

40°

31°

 

 

Jan 27th

44°

24°

 

 

Jan 28th

40°

26°

 

 

Jan 29th

42°

21°

 

 

Jan 30th

39°

20°

 

 

Jan 31st

37°

21°

 

 

Feb 1st

40°

27°

 

 

Feb 2nd

47°

26°

 

 

 

Edited January 9 by Will Simpson

[palmnut-fry]

Beat me to it, and by judging by the comments so far, we are all ARE NOT AMUSED. Momma Nature, wt actual F? Culprit, from my theory is that the S. Pacific volcano that exploded a couple years ago (Wonga Tonga Smonga Wonga or whatever lol) sent the gargantuan plume of water vapor ever witnessed in modern times to highest points of atmosphere ever recorded. Maybe this has altered the temps even in supposedly milder El Ninos? Also for the record heat of the last few years ( all the hottest ever recorded in modern times)

Whatever it is, I already have a guy coming Sunday to help me wrap and move the shit indoors! Jeez, '24 really a bummer year already. Prayers it is not as bad as they say and to all that read this. Good luck

[WSimpson]

24 minutes ago, JohnT said:

Really dislike when this happens! Interesting that perhaps the southeast won’t be seeing too low of temperatures, fingers crossed. 
 

Your weather isn't looking too bad at all . I've got some temperatures that are flirting with something way worse if those temperatures in the lower 20'sF get forecasted way lower . I've seen that happen too many times .

Will

[MAPalms]

Woah! 8b winter here so far. This morning was the coldest morning so far. Some snow cover is left from a little bit of snow over the weekend. It should be gone by tomorrow. Good luck to everyone with their palms, especially with some of those negative temperatures.

Edited January 9 by MAPalms

[EJPalm05]

My forecast so far...

[amh]

I'm filling gallon jugs with water to help protect my newly planted palms, luckily everything I have in the ground is hardy to zone8 or colder.

 

[Las Palmas Norte]

5 hours ago, teddytn said:

Perfect example of why people should take the zone changes with a grain of salt.

Yup ! 👍

[MarcusH]

Well, our local news channel KSAT 12 is predicting 22°F for Monday night/morning but my app shows me colder temperatures.  We will see how cold it gets . I understand that the closer we get to Monday the more accurate the temperatures will be. Let's hope for the best . One thing for sure those artic winters aren't rare anymore.  

[Paradise Found]

Looks like two days will be below freezing before going above freezing. Low looks like low 20s to mid 20s for two nights.  And snow Friday and Sunday 3”.  Then warming up. 
 

Edited January 10 by Paradise Found

[Swolte]

See below for what the predictions look like in College Station. 

A low of 16F at the moment and below zero temperatures for several hours. My yard, especially on clear nights, is usually 5-10F colder than predicted so I have to prepare for more than 48 hours below zero with a possible low in the single digits. I am hoping the cloud cover will hold on Monday/Tuesday or, obviously, that the situation changes to less cold! 

Preparations are well underway.  As for palms/cycads, today:
- Protected most small palms with an upside down planting pot (duct taped the hole) lined with fleece, hay, or frost blanket. 
- For 90% of other palms, I cut and/or tied fronds up and put a stake next to it. 
- For most cycads I cut the fronds and heaped leaves/hay on top of the base with a frost blanket on top. Should be fine. Others got fleece and a small front blanket tipi-tent.  

Tomorrow I'll be wrapping the palms and most of the work should be done. Some palms are getting too big to protect and possibly able to survive what's ahead. I want to wait before cutting fronds until I am sure it is absolutely necessary. I attached a pic of my Sabal Guatemalensis dilemma... 

Edited January 10 by Swolte

[Chester B]

Well I just closed on the sale of my Oregon house today. The weather right now looks about as bad as I’ve seen it, although last year was probably worse. Feel sorry for the new people. Without some protection for a few of the tender things they’re like to perish. 
 

[Chester B]

Onto my new house which closes on Friday. It looks like I’ll be feeling the cold there too in Houston. Fortunately, I have no palms in the ground yet. 
 

Yesterday we hit snow and icy roads right on the Oregon state line on Mt Ashland. And were driving quickly to avoid a major snowstorm starting last night in Northern California around Mt Shasta. Tomorrow we’re facing yet another winter storm just south of Bakersfield, California. You read that right. We went this way to avoid any chance of winter weather too. 

Edited January 10 by Chester B

[jwitt]

1 hour ago, Swolte said:

See below for what the predictions look like in College Station. 

A low of 16F at the moment and below zero temperatures for several hours. My yard, especially on clear nights, is usually 5-10F colder than predicted so I have to prepare for more than 48 hours below zero with a possible low in the single digits. I am hoping the cloud cover will hold on Monday/Tuesday or, obviously, that the situation changes to less cold! 

Preparations are well underway.  As for palms/cycads, today:
- Protected most small palms with an upside down planting pot (duct taped the hole) lined with fleece, hay, or frost blanket. 
- For 90% of other palms, I cut and/or tied fronds up and put a stake next to it. 
- For most cycads I cut the fronds and heaped leaves/hay on top of the base with a frost blanket on top. Should be fine. Others got fleece and a small front blanket tipi-tent.  

Tomorrow I'll be wrapping the palms and most of the work should be done. Some palms are getting too big to protect and possibly able to survive what's ahead. I want to wait before cutting fronds until I am sure it is absolutely necessary. I attached a pic of my Sabal Guatemalensis dilemma... 

 

1 hour ago, Swolte said:

See below for what the predictions look like in College Station. 

A low of 16F at the moment and below zero temperatures for several hours. My yard, especially on clear nights, is usually 5-10F colder than predicted so I have to prepare for more than 48 hours below zero with a possible low in the single digits. I am hoping the cloud cover will hold on Monday/Tuesday or, obviously, that the situation changes to less cold! 

Preparations are well underway.  As for palms/cycads, today:
- Protected most small palms with an upside down planting pot (duct taped the hole) lined with fleece, hay, or frost blanket. 
- For 90% of other palms, I cut and/or tied fronds up and put a stake next to it. 
- For most cycads I cut the fronds and heaped leaves/hay on top of the base with a frost blanket on top. Should be fine. Others got fleece and a small front blanket tipi-tent.  

Tomorrow I'll be wrapping the palms and most of the work should be done. Some palms are getting too big to protect and possibly able to survive what's ahead. I want to wait before cutting fronds until I am sure it is absolutely necessary. I attached a pic of my Sabal Guatemalensis dilemma... 

Below zero dew points are absolutely bone dry air! 

[jwitt]

@Chester B

That is quite an extended and deep freeze for those parts! 

It's been cold here and getting colder.

Edited January 10 by jwitt

[amh]

Monday night will be bad, but I'm currently more worried about Tuesday night. I'm also doubting that Monday and Tuesday will get above freezing.

On a related note, My original forecast low for tonight was 34F, it was 32F at 8PM, and is 28F at 11PM.

Edited January 10 by amh

[DTS]

I can still call these lows normal over here

[Swolte]

Long day but I was able to protect the majority of palms! The forecast got a little worse with a potential string of 60hrs below freezing,. However, predicted lows appear to stabilize around 16F and the probability for cloud cover increased during the cold events. I just hope to stay in the teens in my yard... 

Tomorrow, I am planning to protect the remaining palm trees (less than 10). After that, its focusing on agaves and some other lower priority plants.

~ S 

Edited January 11 by Swolte

[RFun]

Seems that Texas has been hit hard by those Polar Vortexes in recent years.  We'll know more in a few days as to the extent of this one.

[Swolte]

5 hours ago, RFun said:

Seems that Texas has been hit hard by those Polar Vortexes in recent years.  We'll know more in a few days as to the extent of this one.

Yes, what's extra hard is these events happening after extensive droughts and other harsh weather events which have left many plants already weakened and low on reserves. This has also been the story from the university county-based AgriLife Extension these days. They're getting a lot of calls from people with dying trees (I listen to the Skip Richter radio/pod).  We have many red cedars and crepe myrtles dying around town. As a long-term garden base for planting here in your garden here, I think it's safe to say to just go with Sabals if you want care-free palms. 

Edited January 11 by Swolte

[MarcusH]

1 hour ago, Swolte said:

Yes, what's extra hard is these events happening after extensive droughts and other harsh weather events which have left many plants already weakened and low on reserves. This has also been the story from the university county-based AgriLife Extension these days. They're getting a lot of calls from people with dying trees (I listen to the Skip Richter radio/pod).  We have many red cedars and crepe myrtles dying around town. As a long-term garden base for planting here in your garden here, I think it's safe to say to just go with Sabals if you want care-free palms. 

Washingtonia Filifera and Filibusta (leaning Filifera) are absolutely bulletproof in the entire San Antonio metro . 

Sure you like the fronds to be evergreen then Sabal it is. 

Climate is changing and we'll see more droughts and more winter as well as summer weather extremes in Texas especially in Central Texas.  Gotta choose plants that can handle future climate.  

[Paradise Found]

On 1/9/2024 at 6:23 PM, Paradise Found said:

Looks like two days will be below freezing before going above freezing. Low looks like low 20s to mid 20s for two nights.  And snow Friday and Sunday 3”.  Then warming up. 
 

Updated forecast for me one or two nights around 17f. Other nights in the 20’s. Brought in some tender potted plants. Mostly aloes, small dyckia hybrids, silver

tree fern. 
Good luck everyone!

Edited January 11 by Paradise Found

[Paradise Found]

Olympia tonight 24f. Compared to Bellingham 7f.  Colder than a witches tit!

Edited January 11 by Paradise Found

[Chester B]

@Swolte When I was in Houston I was surprised to see all the dead and damaged Southern Magnolias. 
 

Just need some of these. unfortunately no seeds. This is Goodyear, AZ.

[ChicagoPalma]

-11F in two days! God bless my cannas and elephant ears to help them survive!

[Xenon]

17 minutes ago, Chester B said:

@Swolte When I was in Houston I was surprised to see all the dead and damaged Southern Magnolias. 

They dropped like flies this summer from the heat and drought. Entire rows of them...so much for being "native" 😂. Never seen so many dead magnolias in my life

[jwitt]

8 minutes ago, ChicagoPalma said:

-11F in two days! God bless my cannas and elephant ears to help them survive!

Palms have been documented to have survived -11f on back to back nights unprotected.(sabal, washy, Trachy, med)

With that said, good luck!

 

[amh]

4 hours ago, Swolte said:

Yes, what's extra hard is these events happening after extensive droughts and other harsh weather events which have left many plants already weakened and low on reserves. This has also been the story from the university county-based AgriLife Extension these days. They're getting a lot of calls from people with dying trees (I listen to the Skip Richter radio/pod).  We have many red cedars and crepe myrtles dying around town. As a long-term garden base for planting here in your garden here, I think it's safe to say to just go with Sabals if you want care-free palms. 

The hack berries are dropping like flies in my area, I've also lost a bunch of small oaks, and all but 1 of my 11 loquats.

[_nevi]

46 minutes ago, Xenon said:

They dropped like flies this summer from the heat and drought. Entire rows of them...so much for being "native" 😂. Never seen so many dead magnolias in my life

Not even in 2011? That was an even worse drought, with extremes/exceptionals already established by spring that year — so, if 2023 truly did beat that year out regarding damaged and/or dead magnolias, then that's saying something.

Edited January 11 by _nevi

[WSimpson]

The most severe cold with this latest cold snap  seems to be relatively short lived . I was nervous during that last Texas cold in 2020-2021 because while I didn't get lower than 16F here  that winter , which is a mild winter for here  , every day I would check the weather over in Texas and worry   it was coming this way . It was nerve wracking to check my weather and wonder when that system was going to move out of Texas and further east .

I've never seen a weather phenomenon like what happened in Texas before . Usually the cold comes down and might affect Texas but it almost always moves eastward . That cold snap  just stuck there in Texas for way too long and never moved . Weird !

Edited January 11 by Will Simpson

[Las Palmas Norte]

1 hour ago, Paradise Found said:

... Bellingham 7f. ...

Bellingham does get hit by those Fraser Valley outflows. That should nuke a few tender plants.

This vortex will kill off anything incapable of long term survival, or set them back hard.

[RJ]

5 minutes ago, Will Simpson said:

The most severe cold with this latest cold snap  seems to be relatively short lived . I was nervous during that last Texas cold in 2020-2021 because while I didn't get lower than 16F here  that winter , which is a mild winter for here  , every day I would check the weather over in Texas and worry   it was coming this way . It was nerve wracking to check my weather and wonder when that system was going to move out of Texas and further east .

I've never seen a weather phenomenon like what happened in Texas before . Usually the cold comes down and might affect Texas but it almost always moves eastward . That cold snap  just stuck there in Texas for way too long and never moved . Weird !

You can thank the mountains to our west for that. The severe cold air layer during that even was relatively shallow, you could watch it on the models being shunted then directed down towards Georgia and Alabama. The mountains didn't help us much during that 2018/19 cold snap however. That one was brutal for us. Even down here we got into the mid teens and stayed there for two days never getting above freezing. I don't know about you guys to the north but that was the longest duration cold snap in history for Columbia if I recall.   

[_nevi]

6 minutes ago, RJ said:

You can thank the mountains to our west for that. The severe cold air layer during that even was relatively shallow, you could watch it on the models being shunted then directed down towards Georgia and Alabama. The mountains didn't help us much during that 2018/19 cold snap however. That one was brutal for us. Even down here we got into the mid teens and stayed there for two days never getting above freezing. I don't know about you guys to the north but that was the longest duration cold snap in history for Columbia if I recall.   

The Apps do offer protection to shallow cold. But I feel like the "trajectory" of the airmasses (influenced by position of cold pool + movement of leading low pressures) has been more the culprit regarding these cold spells in Texas.

If it was just the Apps, then the cold should be overtaking Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama/FL Panhandle (esp along/west of Alabama river) just as much. Even the Apps near Georgia aren't as tall for full blocking power compared to Carolinas.

Instead, I think the effects in Texas have more to do with interactions regarding the Rockies given the aforementoned airmass trajectories. A cold pool position towards Ontario and Quebec would for sure lead to more cold outbreaks further east with lesser focus on Texas. But when the cold pools set up more in the plains (especially towards Manitoba, Saskatchawan, Alberta, NWT, Yukon areas), they can easily ooze into Montana, where it then "dams" down the front range of the Rockies into Texas. It is then that the Appalachains can block progress eastward, but the Rockies effect means that milder temps manifest even in Alabama, Misssissippi, then Louisiana that don't have mountain protection either.

Not to mention, orographic effects of the Rockies can spawn "leeside troughs" and if they take a northeastward "cutter" trajectory from Texas northeastward through Bos-Wash corridor, that also influences the movement of the cold pools orientating them SW-NE as well from Texas towards Tennessee and onward.

Speaking of "cyclogenesis", I notice with setups of cold air into Texas that there is often very little/no antecedent "cyclogenesis" occuring in Panhandle/New Mexico/Oklahoma areas. Instead, whatever cyclogenesis occurs starts in Mexico, before "shooting" out across the Gulf, then northeastward bysecting Florida up the Atlantic coast.