Polar Vortex

[Manalto]

1 hour ago, Cody Salem said:

 I hope the west coast is spared this time.

 

The rest of us be damned!

[Cody Salem]

46 minutes ago, Sabal King said:

With a name like Severe Weather EU (likely cherry picking one model).. are we surprised?

I'm sure it's over-hyped, but if you look back at their post from December 21st,  they nailed the timing of the January vortex 20 days ahead of it.

[Ivanos1982]

6 hours ago, Cody Salem said:

I'm sure it's over-hyped, but if you look back at their post from December 21st,  they nailed the timing of the January vortex 20 days ahead of it.

I have been reading posts from several news outlets saying the same thing, that we will have another cold front and that this one will be more intense. The reality is it has been so warm around the poles that it wouldn't surprise me. All that warmth disrupts the cold and sends it our way. Hopefully it will happen later in the season when the power of the sun can balance it out and it won't be that bad. We will just have to wait and see.

[Leelanau Palms]

Non-sensational article about a recent update from Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting for Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research. He studies the polar vortex and how it effects long-range forecasts. (Graphic below added for eye candy). This is just an interesting FYI.

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/02/polar-vortex-expert-sees-disruption-coming-cold-air-returning.html

[Sabal King]

Sounds like mid next week some of that arctic cold makes its way into the US, but TX is spared this time, and it's staying well north of us.  Beyond that, sounds like February we will be spared and if we get some cold in March, it won't be anything like what we would be getting in January\February... great signs pointing to early Spring.  The arctic unloaded its cold air early and now doesn't have that intensity anymore.  GOOD!

Time to move more seedlings out to the garden...

[MarcusH]

Everything I say is based on an opinion and very little knowledge about meteorology but I agree with Sabal King. I haven't seen two severe freezes in one winter YET , but I know that I'll be expecting a few more cold fronds with lows in the 30s , maybe even mid upper 20s in the early morning for a day or two . That same phenomenon happened in Dec 2022 and January 2023 . We can feel the sun getting stronger so hopefully that will weaken any polar vortex that makes its way down here. So far I haven't seen a severe freeze in the forecast, the only estimate I have is that on February 12th the low gets down to the mid 40s . 

[ChrisA]

4 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Everything I say is based on an opinion and very little knowledge about meteorology but I agree with Sabal King. I haven't seen two severe freezes in one winter YET , but I know that I'll be expecting a few more cold fronds with lows in the 30s , maybe even mid upper 20s in the early morning for a day or two . That same phenomenon happened in Dec 2022 and January 2023 . We can feel the sun getting stronger so hopefully that will weaken any polar vortex that makes its way down here. So far I haven't seen a severe freeze in the forecast, the only estimate I have is that on February 12th the low gets down to the mid 40s . 

We'll be crossing our fingers for sure! The sun definitely is starting to feel warmer and warmer, even on cooler days. By April we should be in great shape. The record low for March is a bitter 19F back in 2002. Would like us to avoid that if at all possible. Our palms, and other tropicals, could definitely use a break. This is the third winter in a row where most  Mexican Fans, Canary Island Dates, and whatever new queen palms have been planted have had all their fronds killed.  Not sure how many times CIDP can do that consecutively and still recover? I've been tracking several and they end up just looking so awful that people just remove them. 

Yesterday I spent some time reminiscing on Google street view for the 2007 to 2020 span where plants didn't get too badly set back and many times came through the winter unaffected! Would really like to see that.

 

[L.A.M.]

13 hours ago, Sabal King said:

Sounds like mid next week some of that arctic cold makes its way into the US, but TX is spared this time, and it's staying well north of us.  Beyond that, sounds like February we will be spared and if we get some cold in March, it won't be anything like what we would be getting in January\February... great signs pointing to early Spring.  The arctic unloaded its cold air early and now doesn't have that intensity anymore.  GOOD!

Time to move more seedlings out to the garden...

Indeed. Here in Tennessee, it's expected to stay firmly above freezing during the day and not go far below it at night. The Sun Belt should be spared of a direct hit this time.

12 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Everything I say is based on an opinion and very little knowledge about meteorology but I agree with Sabal King. I haven't seen two severe freezes in one winter YET , but I know that I'll be expecting a few more cold fronds with lows in the 30s , maybe even mid upper 20s in the early morning for a day or two . That same phenomenon happened in Dec 2022 and January 2023 . We can feel the sun getting stronger so hopefully that will weaken any polar vortex that makes its way down here. So far I haven't seen a severe freeze in the forecast, the only estimate I have is that on February 12th the low gets down to the mid 40s . 

Memphis did get two severe freezes in 1963, but I agree, it's unlikely to happen twice in one winter. January 1963 and December 1963 were two separate winters, even though they were the same calendar year. The only case of that that I know of was in November 1950 and February 1951, when Nashville got below zero twice in one winter - and got to -13 degrees Fahrenheit in February for the second time (the first being the infamous 1899, when -8 degrees Fahrenheit reached as far south as Fort Worth). In fact, that's the only time that Donelson (where Nashville's official weather readings have been taken since the 1940s) got below 0 in November, which it still never has in March like some more temperate parts of the state have. If it gets unusually cold in November, better watch out in February, then in March if nothing serious materializes in February. If it happens in December or January as usual, we should be in the clear until at least April, when it'll be too warm to be likely to seriously set back anything evergreen that normally thrives in a given climate.

[Joe NC]

On 1/21/2024 at 9:33 AM, BeyondTheGarden said:

I'm about to trade in my palms and bananas for Japanese maples and noble firs. 

Edit; in Washington the forecast was never off by more than 2-3 degrees.  Here I'm routinely 8-9 degrees colder than forecast. They called for 18, I got 9. 

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/cardinal/scout/

Check the above link for almanac data for the station closest to your house.  I have an NC State horticultural station a mile-ish from my house that is much more representative of my yard compared to the airport station (2 miles away) that is used for standard Wilmington weather reporting. I use the forecast provided on that station page when deciding to take action on palm protection.  9 does seem pretty low? Maybe your sensor is off?  I had an issue with one of my sensors not being correctly calibrated.  I put two side by side and the readings were off by 7 or so degrees (which is an extreme amount when it means life or death of a marginal palm).  I ended up calibrating my sensor and got a reading which matched the NCSU station close by. 

Edited February 7 by Joe NC

[ChicagoPalma]

I don’t know why you southerners think it’s so cold up north and so snowy, but regularly it’s very warm and we even have severe weather up here on a regular basis!

[RJ]

4 hours ago, ChicagoPalma said:

I don’t know why you southerners think it’s so cold up north and so snowy, but regularly it’s very warm and we even have severe weather up here on a regular basis!

 

Probably because many of us have lived up there for probably many decades more then you have been around to observe the weather. We have more then a few years of weather, real weather observation to understand if you live in the upper midwestern to the northeastern United States the cold comes and sometimes when it comes it comes for weeks on end. Maybe not this year, or next,  but it's coming.  It's inevitable.....  again I point to you the winter of 2013/2014, only 10 years ago. 

 

BTW what do you define as a "regular" basis?   Remember, mules are hardier then queens 😉

[Chester B]

1 hour ago, RJ said:

Probably because many of us have lived up there for probably many decades more then you have been around to observe the weather. We have more then a few years of weather, real weather observation to understand if you live in the upper midwestern to the northeastern United States the cold comes and sometimes when it comes it comes for weeks on end. Maybe not this year, or next,  but it's coming.  It's inevitable.....  again I point to you the winter of 2013/2014, only 10 years ago. 

 

BTW what do you define as a "regular" basis?   Remember, mules are hardier then queens 😉

This winter has been a warm one around the Great Lakes.  My parents have been in 40s and 50s with very little snow that doesn't hang around.  The odd cold day here and there, but very pleasant and atypical.  It's not the first time winter has been like this up there, I remember some warm ones, but I also remember some cold ones.  2013/2014 was the coldest and snowiest winter I have ever seen in Southern Ontario, and I've been around for a number of decades.

[ChicagoPalma]

11 minutes ago, Chester B said:

This winter has been a warm one around the Great Lakes.  My parents have been in 40s and 50s with very little snow that doesn't hang around.  The odd cold day here and there, but very pleasant and atypical.  It's not the first time winter has been like this up there, I remember some warm ones, but I also remember some cold ones.  2013/2014 was the coldest and snowiest winter I have ever seen in Southern Ontario, and I've been around for a number of decades.

 

2 hours ago, RJ said:

Probably because many of us have lived up there for probably many decades more then you have been around to observe the weather. We have more then a few years of weather, real weather observation to understand if you live in the upper midwestern to the northeastern United States the cold comes and sometimes when it comes it comes for weeks on end. Maybe not this year, or next,  but it's coming.  It's inevitable.....  again I point to you the winter of 2013/2014, only 10 years ago. 

 

BTW what do you define as a "regular" basis?   Remember, mules are hardier then queens 😉

Its a joke, just to clarify. Not very well written, sorry.

[RJ]

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

This winter has been a warm one around the Great Lakes.  My parents have been in 40s and 50s with very little snow that doesn't hang around.  The odd cold day here and there, but very pleasant and atypical.  It's not the first time winter has been like this up there, I remember some warm ones, but I also remember some cold ones.  2013/2014 was the coldest and snowiest winter I have ever seen in Southern Ontario, and I've been around for a number of decades.

Yes warm in the NE, but with that comes the clouds. Where I lived has just got over the longest stretch of sunless days. From Dec 23 till just recently, the longest stretch since 1951. Warm but dreary, almost PNW style … 

 

it’s those clear nights that bring the cold temps, coupled with snowpack. 🥶

[ChicagoPalma]

Woopsie, first tornado outbreak of the season up north here! Ceramic pots left outside were shattered by hail.

[Aceraceae]

2 hours ago, RJ said:

Yes warm in the NE, but with that comes the clouds. Where I lived has just got over the longest stretch of sunless days. From Dec 23 till just recently, the longest stretch since 1951. Warm but dreary, almost PNW style … 

More remarkable is that that inlcudes cloudy nights as well, which is more rare in the Great Lakes northeast, with no moon or stars, or at least some reports said it included the nighttime hours. 

That's extra rare, as often the lake effect clouds are more pronounced during the day, subduing temps and causing snow. Then after the humidity falls a bit during the day, and the sun driven lake effect clouds stop in the evening, it leaves clear, cold nights. This makes winters in the NE seem dark and dreary and it exaggerates the moderate winter day lengths. Buffalo or Rochester has over 80% cloud cover in Nov and Dec, but then has about 70% sun in July***.

***Early April is barely a 50% chance of sun, so for the April 8, 2024 NE USA eclipse, travel might be necessary along the line of totality to see the full effect under clear skies. 

December 20th still has over 9 hours of light in the NE, and then only 15 (sun) to 16 hours of light. But the % cloudiness is much higher in the winter, and low in July, giving a more drastic seasonal difference in perceived day lengths as well as temps. 

Edited February 9 by Aceraceae

[L.A.M.]

14 hours ago, ChicagoPalma said:

I don’t know why you southerners think it’s so cold up north and so snowy, but regularly it’s very warm and we even have severe weather up here on a regular basis!

The averages here are way warmer than they are in Chicago. Yes, we do get cold waves, and you do get heat waves, but we both get both. That's a typical eastern/central North America thing with no big mountains to stop air from moving all the way between the Caribbean and the North Slope of Alaska uninterrupted. We actually don't get the summer cold waves off of the Hudson Bay that you do, and our soil doesn't freeze more than a few inches deep during winter. Soil staying frozen is, I would imagine, pretty typical up north and surely quite the palm-killer!

[ChicagoPalma]

EVERYONE, it was just a horrible-made joke.

[Las Palmas Norte]

18 hours ago, L.A.M. said:

... between the Caribbean and the North Slope of Alaska uninterrupted.

That triggered my recollection about Alaska zones and how fragile they must be, so compressed between the ocean and the coast range.

 

[L.A.M.]

On 2/9/2024 at 5:00 PM, Las Palmas Norte said:

That triggered my recollection about Alaska zones and how fragile they must be, so compressed between the ocean and the coast range.

 

Fragile, I doubt. If the area continues warming, they have a long way up the mountains they can move. I'd say Denali is probably in the least danger of fully deglaciating of anywhere in the world other than interior East Antarctica and the Transantarctic Mountains, given that it reaches so high above sea level at such a high altitude. Indeed, Antarctica is such a special case because the Antarctic Circumpolar Current prevents warm water or continental tropical air masses from penetrating far into the Southern Ocean, but even so, some coastal areas of Antarctica do have tundra with grass and pearlwort, and West Antarctica's lower elevation makes it less cold than the East. Without the ACC, I doubt Antarctica would be as cold as Denali is other than maybe a few isolated peaks in the Transantarctic Mountains that are higher and closer to the South Pole than most.

Nonetheless, it's also worth noting that both the taiga and the tundra extend from Zone 1 to Zone 8, and the North Slope is more Zone 2 than Zone 1 with some of it even in Zone 3 despite so much of Interior Alaska being in Zone 1. It shows us that summer temperature matters just as much as winter temperature. Some things can tolerate a horrible winter but need extra summer heat, while others don't need hot summers but are incapable of dealing with extraordinary winter cold. In a way, that's kind of like how people try to grow Chinese windmill palms in Tennessee, thinking of them as a temperate palm based on their ubiquity in Western Europe, but neglect to consider that Western Europe doesn't get the variable winter/spring temperatures we do and Chinese plants aren't adapted to that kind of thing. Yet needle palms, dwarf palmettos and multiple hybrids and subspecies of the latter flourish here outside of the worst winters (which they usually end up recovering from even unprotected) despite being subtropical; they need heat, but we have plenty of it, and they also are unparalleled in their ability to handle sudden hard freezes as long as the winter averages remain at least somewhat mild. In fact, Chilean wine palms - another "temperate" palm - would be killed by our high summer dew points if the erratic winters didn't do them in first. I'd say there are probably tundra plants in the Aleutian Islands, Patagonia and some islands in the Southern Ocean that would be killed by warm summers but also by harsh winters, and we obviously know Dahurian larch can handle winter cold nearly in the triple-digits below zero Fahrenheit but needs warm summers to grow enough to survive.

[Las Palmas Norte]

11 hours ago, L.A.M. said:

Fragile, I doubt. If the area continues warming...

For clarity, my use of the word "fragile" was used in terms of it's zone 7 & 8 in close proximity to other neighboring much colder zones. One would only have to travel 100 miles or less to entering another USDA zone. Shifting weather patterns could easily permit adjoining zones to infiltrate in an arctic outbreak.

I was in no way making reference to "warming", global or otherwise. Regards.

[L.A.M.]

On 2/11/2024 at 1:19 PM, Las Palmas Norte said:

For clarity, my use of the word "fragile" was used in terms of it's zone 7 & 8 in close proximity to other neighboring much colder zones. One would only have to travel 100 miles or less to entering another USDA zone. Shifting weather patterns could easily permit adjoining zones to infiltrate in an arctic outbreak.

I was in no way making reference to "warming", global or otherwise. Regards.

It's certainly possible, but in practice I consider it quite unlikely despite how far north that is. The Alaska Range is taller than any other in North America and bigger than any mountain range in Africa, Europe, Sahul or Zealandia, so it'd basically wall off any cold air masses anywhere remotely near ground level from reaching Sitka or the mainland coastal areas. The Aleutian Islands should also be fairly safe from an Arctic outbreak because although the Aleutian Low could draw in air-masses from any direction, the ice-free ocean would pretty quickly destroy any frigid air masses just like how strong subtropical sun tends to limit the duration of Arctic outbreaks in the Sun Belt (even far inland) compared to temperate latitudes. The extreme height of the Alaska Range and ice-free Pacific are why Anchorage has no permafrost despite having cooler summers than Fairbanks, and the ice-free Pacific and powerful Aleutian Low bringing heavy cloud cover even allow the Aleutian Islands to have mild winter averages despite the northerly latitude and extremely cloudy summers making them borderline tundra (which Sitka isn't). They're not like the Yukon Territory which is not only far north but also far inland and only sheltered by the relatively measly Canadian Rockies and Brooks Range (which are the same range under different names) from an extreme cold wave from the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, or even North Asia if it comes in from over the frozen Arctic Ocean.

Edited February 13 by L.A.M.

[Xenon]

Near Houston Hobby today, a bit singed but no damage of consequence 

[Las Palmas Norte]

15 hours ago, L.A.M. said:

It's certainly possible, but in practice I consider it quite unlikely despite how far north that is. The Alaska Range is taller than any other in North America and bigger than any mountain range in Africa, Europe, Sahul or Zealandia, so it'd basically wall off any cold air masses anywhere remotely near ground level from reaching Sitka or the mainland coastal areas. The Aleutian Islands should also be fairly safe from an Arctic outbreak because although the Aleutian Low could draw in air-masses from any direction, the ice-free ocean would pretty quickly destroy any frigid air masses just like how strong subtropical sun tends to limit the duration of Arctic outbreaks in the Sun Belt (even far inland) compared to temperate latitudes. The extreme height of the Alaska Range and ice-free Pacific are why Anchorage has no permafrost despite having cooler summers than Fairbanks, and the ice-free Pacific and powerful Aleutian Low bringing heavy cloud cover even allow the Aleutian Islands to have mild winter averages despite the northerly latitude and extremely cloudy summers making them borderline tundra (which Sitka isn't). They're not like the Yukon Territory which is not only far north but also far inland and only sheltered by the relatively measly Canadian Rockies and Brooks Range (which are the same range under different names) from an extreme cold wave from the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, or even North Asia if it comes in from over the frozen Arctic Ocean.

Wow. You really know that region and geography. That's where my analysis was way off and was pure supposition. Thanks.

[Robert Cade Ross]

3 hours ago, Xenon said:

Near Houston Hobby today, a bit singed but no damage of consequence 

I pass these often they look decent 🌴

[Chester B]

5 hours ago, Cade said:

I pass these often they look decent 🌴

That giant interchange at I-45 and south Beltway8 has the most impressive stands of Washies I've seen around.

[Robert Cade Ross]

Pair of gorgeous silver pindos in my neighborhood I have no idea how the quality turned out this bad 😂

[Little Tex]

17 hours ago, Chester B said:

That giant interchange at I-45 and south Beltway8 has the most impressive stands of Washies I've seen around.

Wait until you go to McAllen 🤩 

[MarcusH]

4 hours ago, Little Tex said:

Wait until you go to McAllen 🤩 

 

4 hours ago, Little Tex said:

Wait until you go to McAllen 🤩 

Or how about Brownsville?  Like Xenon used to say that's Corpus Christi on steroids and he wasn't underestimating it lol.  Can't top Brownsville.  

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

 

Or how about Brownsville?  Like Xenon used to say that's Corpus Christi on steroids and he wasn't underestimating it lol.  Can't top Brownsville.  

McAllen Area along US-83 (really from Weslaco all the way to Mission) probably has more Washies density wise than even Brownsville (but we're splitting hairs here). McAllen is dubbed "the City of Palms" 

Edited February 15 by Xenon

[Xenon]

I-10 and Wilcrest in West Houston this afternoon 

[Little Tex]

3 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Can't top Brownsville.  

McAllen has more money and better landscaping around as a result, Brownsville has a better micro-climate however

[Robert Cade Ross]

Palm tree farm in Alvin - peep all the dead robsuta stumps 🥴

[Xenon]

7 minutes ago, Little Tex said:

McAllen has more money and better landscaping around as a result, Brownsville has a better micro-climate however

Seems kind of hit and miss though. McAllen is often similar to Brownsville or even warmer depending on where the airmass plunges, greater UHI probably helps too 

[MarcusH]

5 hours ago, Xenon said:

Seems kind of hit and miss though. McAllen is often similar to Brownsville or even warmer depending on where the airmass plunges, greater UHI probably helps too 

Plus closer to SPI 

[Meangreen94z]

What happened to the Texas pictures thread? Deleted?

[Robert Cade Ross]

6 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

What happened to the Texas pictures thread? Deleted?

I think so lol 

[MarcusH]

23 minutes ago, Cade said:

I think so lol 

Lol I thought I was blocked 

[Robert Cade Ross]

3 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Lol I thought I was blocked 

Yeah it was deleted for sure cause I had a friend send me a screenshot saying it was not available anymore.

[Ringil]

This winter has been tough in Scandinavia. More or less below normal since October, which is a rare sight these days. For sure the worst since 2010, which was the coldest since 1987 (and so on). 

Do you guys think this Trachy migth be able to make it?