Polar Vortex

[jwitt]

Those arctic airmass(es) are shallow. They set in place and "ooze" unless something pushes or pulls them.

That is why NM/El Paso got hit the worst in 2011. A low pressure system(storm) to the west pulled the arctic air mass thru and over the central mountain chain in NM from the plains.  Texas, in that event, was mostly spared the "real" cold.  That time. 

Arctic air is high pressure. 

Now 2021, no push or pull, Texas took the brunt. 

Kind of how the PNW gets hit with arctic air is the same as here in central NM, the cold comes from the east, mostly thru passes, valleys, etc..

 

 

 

[mthteh1916]

On 1/9/2024 at 1:27 PM, MarcusH said:

   I don't like to bring bad news but I notice the models are trending colder as usually happens with theses outbreaks with cross polar flow. The problem for Texas, LA, and Mississippi and AL is that you have nothing to block or hamper it. In the east we have the Appalachians which aren't very high but they do mitigate it and the fact the jet stream usually rides up along the east coast giving us a marine effect. Lows in places like philly are going down to 17F, while places at much lower latitude in TX are going much colder. Same for the central gulf coast area. it is the geography of the US. Always was and always will be. Never will Texas or the Gulf Coast be able to grow what places much further north in Europe grow. Just the facts. Sad but true. 

Edited January 11 by mthteh1916
left original post in my writing

[mthteh1916]

On 1/9/2024 at 2:40 PM, fr8train said:

From 70 on Thursday, to a low of 15 Monday 😞

 

 Yup, you just almost never see this anywhere in the world at your latitude but the central US. No mountains, no anything to protect your from the north pole. Sad but true. Remember, North America had the coldest weather during the last ice age. far colder than Europe and Asia. This will never change. 

[DTS]

How long is everyone gonna be under freezing for?

Edited January 11 by DTS1

[Las Palmas Norte]

Temps been dropping throughout the afternoon along with a westerly breeze. Currently 31°F at 15:30 hrs and heading for a predicted low of 10°F !!! 

I suppose I'll know for sure just how cold it will get by tomorrow morning. That's at the bottom end of our zone 8 climate. Yikes.

 

[Las Palmas Norte]

7 hours ago, Chester B said:

@Swolte When I was in Houston I was surprised to see all the dead and damaged Southern Magnolias. 
 

Just need some of these. unfortunately no seeds. This is Goodyear, AZ.

Wow. Those crowns look sparse

[_nevi]

1 hour ago, mthteh1916 said:

Never will Texas or the Gulf Coast be able to grow what places much further north in Europe grow. Just the facts. Sad but true. 

Agreed. 28°N in Texas is about to go to the freezer. But look what happens at 28°N in India.

Edited January 12 by _nevi

[Manalto]

1 hour ago, DTS1 said:

How long is everyone gonna be under freezing for?

30/19F predicted for Mobile on Tuesday. A daytime high below freezing is unusual here. This will turn the dieback perennials, which have endured until now, to slime. Otherwise above freezing.

[RFun]

10 hours ago, jwitt said:

Palms have been documented to have survived -11f on back to back nights unprotected.(sabal, washy, Trachy, med)

With that said, good luck!

 

I don't think this event will come even close to that.  But, that is always something to keep in the back of one's mind.

[RFun]

11 hours ago, Paradise Found said:

Olympia tonight 24f. Compared to Bellingham 7f.  Colder than a witches tit!

My gosh, that sounds absolutely brutal for Bellingham.  I imagine there will be at least a few casualties in that general region.  There are definitely growers who like to push in that region.  I'm currently showing a high of 15 and low of 9 for Bellingham for Friday.  It sounds devastating really.  Even a general forecast for Salt Spring Island in Canada is showing a high of 14 and low of 13.  Some serious Arctic Outflow.

Edited January 12 by RFun

[Paradise Found]

6 minutes ago, RFun said:

My gosh, that sounds absolutely brutal for Bellingham.  I imagine there will be at least a few casualties in that general region.  There are definitely growers who like to push in that region.  I'm currently showing a high of 15 and low of 9 for Bellingham for Friday.  It sounds devastating really.  Even a general forecast for Salt Spring Island in Canada is showing a high of 14 and low of 13.  Some serious Arctic Outflow.

That’s reaaaly cold for Salt Springs island for sure.  Hopefully Joe has his bananas and tender palms protected. Never even heard of that kind of frigid cold during the daytime around here. In fact you have to go back to the early 80’s to see that much cold. Thank goodness this isn’t a long cold spell!
 

[jwitt]

4 hours ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

Wow. Those crowns look sparse

Arizona haircut

Free the beard!

Let the natives be!

Edited January 12 by jwitt

[jwitt]

41 minutes ago, Paradise Found said:

That’s reaaaly cold for Salt Springs island for sure.  Hopefully Joe has his bananas and tender palms protected. Never even heard of that kind of frigid cold during the daytime around here. In fact you have to go back to the early 80’s to see that much cold. Thank goodness this isn’t a long cold spell!
 

That is serious cold. Isn't SSI z9 or a warm 8b?

Zonal minimums(actually lower) for consecutive days/nights.

Somewhat different than the common benchmark known as "consecutive days below freezing".

[Chester B]

I drove from Phoenix to El Paso today via 60 then I10.  Extremely high winds all day and it was a biting cold.  Drove through a lot of areas with snow on the ground and drove through areas of cold rain and ice pellets.  Most temps were in the 30's.  Tonight in El Paso it was 39F when we arrived and the wind gusts almost knocked me over.  Up in areas of high elevation I was still surprised to see a ton of large Washingtonia (both species) and CIDPs.

[Trustandi]

Bellevue area 30F at the moment, it will drop to 16/15F this Saturday.  So much for El niño for PNW, we still get hit by the arctic blast 🫣. I hope this will be the only one arctic blast and we will get a super early spring. 

[Robert Cade Ross]

Driving to north Houston then down to Galveston tomorrow to help move some massive plumeria for friends otherwise they will melt back to the ground…. I’m afraid I’ll barely get above freezing here as the daytime high 🥴🥴🥴

[Paradise Found]

1 hour ago, Trustandi said:

Bellevue area 30F at the moment, it will drop to 16/15F this Saturday.  So much for El niño for PNW, we still get hit by the arctic blast 🫣. I hope this will be the only one arctic blast and we will get a super early spring. 

11pm 36f here. Cold air hasn’t reach this far south yet.  

[MarcusH]

The weather outlook seems to change for the worse. We will see 4 days of freezes in SA with a low anywhere from 14 to 18 degrees depending on the area.  This is going to be bad . 

[Leelanau Palms]

Ugh! Pulling for all y'all in the southland! Hoping for better than expected outcomes. 

[EJPalm05]

12 hours ago, DTS1 said:

How long is everyone gonna be under freezing for?

1 week for me!

[Chester B]

I’m seeing two cold nights but nothing too awful with decent daytime rebounds. I have no Pam’s in the ground at this point, so my protection will be putting them in the garage. 

[MarcusH]

19 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I’m seeing two cold nights but nothing too awful with decent daytime rebounds. I have no Pam’s in the ground at this point, so my protection will be putting them in the garage. 

I use weather channel  app , AccuWeather and the phone's weather app . All of them have different reading where AccuWeather predicts colder temperatures.  The other one range between 17 and 18 degrees at its lowest.  We're still a couple of days away from it so it might change up or down for all of us. Let's hope for the best. I won't protect my Queens this time they'll be goners . My washies I will protect since they're fairly young . Better be save than sorry. 

[Manalto]

10 hours ago, RFun said:

My gosh, that sounds absolutely brutal for Bellingham.  I imagine there will be at least a few casualties in that general region.  There are definitely growers who like to push in that region. 

I used to live there and am still in touch with my old next-door neighbors, who have a spectacular garden. They're not necessarily zone pushers, but I wonder what the consequences of this precipitous drop will be for them. Here on the Gulf Coast, we had a sudden temperature drop in December of '22 and I had a weird range of damage to plants that had endured lower lows in previous years. The predicted low for here (Tuesday) has now dropped to 17°.

I'm sending a strongly-worded letter of complaint to the Canadian Weather Service, demanding that they cut it out. Sheesh.

Edited January 12 by Manalto

[RFun]

34 minutes ago, Manalto said:

I used to live there and am still in touch with my old next-door neighbors, who have a spectacular garden. They're not necessarily zone pushers, but I wonder what the consequences of this precipitous drop will be for them. Here on the Gulf Coast, we had a sudden temperature drop in December of '22 and I had a weird range of damage to plants that had endured lower lows in previous years. The predicted low for here (Tuesday) has now dropped to 17°.

I'm sending a strongly-worded letter of complaint to the Canadian Weather Service, demanding that they cut it out. Sheesh.

Oh ok, I see.  That would be an interesting experience.

[MarcusH]

This is the 3rd severe freeze we get within 3 years and if anybody tells me we should experience some milder winters for the next 10 years I'm going to get a fit lol .  This is becoming an issue for most palm growers who get hit by these polar vortexes,  recently.  Queen palms without protection will perish or completely defoliate in less effected areas. San Antonio is not 9a and Houston is not 9b . We all should be downgraded . These freezes will be more common or the norm I just have that feeling.  Proof that I'm wrong.  Stick with native palms.  

[ChicagoPalma]

-8F on monday while Im gone, also just checking, how many ft of mulch will I need, I only got left over rubber mulch right now and I plant to throw that out in the spring after using it. I have no tarp but I might get one today, I have like a foot and a half of mulch on the cannas right now. @Allen just to be sure is it good enough for cannas? Im guessing the elephant ears are so close to the palm box, If Im correct, the heat emitted from the box will keep the elephant ears warm.

[Paradise Found]

This is one for the record book.  Low last night was 25f and high today is about 28f samefor tomorrow but with a low of 16f-17f after that high of 33f. 

poor Bellingham low was 4f with wind chills of -19f going to be a lot of seriously damaged palms. 
Oh yeah I have 2” of snow and it rained yesterday so ice underneath.  
Vortex please go away!!!

Edited January 12 by Paradise Found

[Las Palmas Norte]

Here on mid Vancouver Island (east side) our overnight low was 16.5°F (-8.6°C). This was my recorded low and typically the airport reading is somewhat lower, and was again today. I could be until Monday where the temperature breaks thru the freeze point. On the positive side, we'll see plenty of sun for a few days.

 

[Las Palmas Norte]

3 hours ago, Manalto said:

I'm sending a strongly-worded letter of complaint to the Canadian Weather Service, demanding that they cut it out. Sheesh.

Re-direct your letter to the governing US agency because this originated in Alaska USA. 😁

[WSimpson]

I'm not sure if I need to protect my Washy . Accuweather , which is often a little high in their temperature forecasts , is showing a Low of 20F on Wednesday morning , but the NWS  , who is often a little low with their temperature forecast , is showing a Low of 14F for that morning . I want to protect my Washy at 14F but I don't need to protect at 20F . I've got some guys that help me protect it so I need to get the ball rolling and make sure they can help me  on Monday or Tuesday . 

These cold snaps always sneak up on me .

Will

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ShadyDan]

0.2C shy of my all time record cold (last year). Refusing to warm up so far even though the sun is out, and could be even colder tonight depending what model I choose to believe. Had a light skiff of snow last night which will hopefully insulate things a little. 
 

[Allen]

2 hours ago, ChicagoPalma said:

-8F on monday while Im gone, also just checking, how many ft of mulch will I need, I only got left over rubber mulch right now and I plant to throw that out in the spring after using it. I have no tarp but I might get one today, I have like a foot and a half of mulch on the cannas right now. @Allen just to be sure is it good enough for cannas? Im guessing the elephant ears are so close to the palm box, If Im correct, the heat emitted from the box will keep the elephant ears warm.

I would put a mound over the EE too.   

[mthteh1916]

18 hours ago, _nevi said:

Agreed. 28°N in Texas is about to go to the freezer. But look what happens at 28°N in India.

India has the extreme of mountain protection. Very cold air is dense and cannot climb over the Himalayas.  China has the very strong jet stream and Siberian High to keep strong low pressure systems away. Those constant fronts in North America eventually drag down air from the North Pole. Only in America. 

[mthteh1916]

12 hours ago, Cade said:

Driving to north Houston then down to Galveston tomorrow to help move some massive plumeria for friends otherwise they will melt back to the ground…. I’m afraid I’ll barely get above freezing here as the daytime high 🥴🥴🥴

What temps can plumeria take and survive? I see them everywhere here in Fort Lauderdale, but they are pretty large trees here.  Do they move them when they are that large? I can't imagine having to do that. 

[Paradise Found]

Hummingbirds have been here all day, time to defrost again. 

[mthteh1916]

2 hours ago, MarcusH said:

This is the 3rd severe freeze we get within 3 years and if anybody tells me we should experience some milder winters for the next 10 years I'm going to get a fit lol .  This is becoming an issue for most palm growers who get hit by these polar vortexes,  recently.  Queen palms without protection will perish or completely defoliate in less effected areas. San Antonio is not 9a and Houston is not 9b . We all should be downgraded . These freezes will be more common or the norm I just have that feeling.  Proof that I'm wrong.  Stick with native palms.  

The 80's were quite a bit colder. I remember. Houston down to 12F. New Orleans down to 11F. The arctic has definitely warmed some since then as the models show. You can still get brutal cold due to the unstable jet stream as the arctic warms. 

[mthteh1916]

3 hours ago, MarcusH said:

This is the 3rd severe freeze we get within 3 years and if anybody tells me we should experience some milder winters for the next 10 years I'm going to get a fit lol .  This is becoming an issue for most palm growers who get hit by these polar vortexes,  recently.  Queen palms without protection will perish or completely defoliate in less effected areas. San Antonio is not 9a and Houston is not 9b . We all should be downgraded . These freezes will be more common or the norm I just have that feeling.  Proof that I'm wrong.  Stick with native palms.  

in North America, zones have to be taken with a large grain of salt. no where else on earth gets the winter temp anomalies North America does. Always has happened and always will. It is due to the large oceans on either side and the constant passing of fronts make winters highly unstable in North America. Add into that mix no decent east west mountain chain to block the cold. Most unstable winters on earth. People in France grow things that would blow your mind and much higher latitudes. Same for all of Western Europe. China is the native home of citrus at the  latitudes of Savannah. Shanghai in China has a record low of 14F but an average January low of 35. That is a diff of 21F, while Savannah at the same latitude has a record low of 3F and an average January low of 40F. That is a difference of 37F. Every other place on the planet at Savannah's latitude has a smaller diff between their record lows and their average lows. It will never change. When I visited the southeast US in the 80's the only darn palm you saw in Savannah was sabal palmetto. Houston and SA should go back to their 80's palms. Boring but safe and less expensive.  

[Robert Cade Ross]

33 minutes ago, mthteh1916 said:

What temps can plumeria take and survive? I see them everywhere here in Fort Lauderdale, but they are pretty large trees here.  Do they move them when they are that large? I can't imagine having to do that. 

30° very briefly won’t hurt a large one . Below that they start to die back 

[Robert Cade Ross]

Downtown Houston Robustas swaying around before 22/24° @Xenon here are updated daytime pictures:) 

[Allen]

3 hours ago, ChicagoPalma said:

-8F on monday while Im gone, also just checking, how many ft of mulch will I need, I only got left over rubber mulch right now and I plant to throw that out in the spring after using it. I have no tarp but I might get one today, I have like a foot and a half of mulch on the cannas right now. @Allen just to be sure is it good enough for cannas? Im guessing the elephant ears are so close to the palm box, If Im correct, the heat emitted from the box will keep the elephant ears warm.

If you have heavy snow cover that will insulate very well also till you can do something else.  The tarp would help keep it drier if that was on there over a pile of mulch.