Polar Vortex

[Palmerr]

On 12/12/2024 at 12:16 AM, jwitt said:

I know the cold was forecast. What I was saying is that it was not predicted to be as cold as it turned out to be.  Even your forecast you posted on 2/10/21 missed the cold you "actually" saw by almost ten degrees

And 2 days out you were somewhat happy with the forecast

 

 

On 12/12/2024 at 8:59 AM, jwitt said:

@SwolteWe had an actual meteorologist warning, and he is missed(collectorpalms).  He did not waver on the severity. 

That said, the NWS and other services did miss the forecasting as they have previously. 

That Texas event had me change my planning for the future.  So it was felt far and wide!

Just saying these are examples of rare events forecast accuracy for 5 day forecasts are right 90% of the time 7 day is 80% correct but then 10-day to 1 month only right half the time. 5 days with 90% accuracy is pretty good! Like i said better than no forecast (Also never look at one model look at all of them) But yeah usually USUALLY cold forecasts are right but those were just the excpetions that make the forecasts better. Also you still have to rely on them or else say bye to your upper subtropical palms and stuff! Or if you dont want to just cover your palms up before the first 16 degrees or yeah.

[MarcusH]

10 hours ago, Chester B said:

Just as an FYI preheating your car in cold weather is not good for your car and such a terrible practice.  Start it up and drive away it will warm up quickly and is easier on it.  Look it up - lots of articles on it.  This is coming from a Canadian.

You sound sooo German lol. My work was 10 minutes away . The engine couldn't warm up that fast but there was no way I would drive inside a cold car lol. 

[jwitt]

1 hour ago, Palmerr said:

 

Just saying these are examples of rare events forecast accuracy for 5 day forecasts are right 90% of the time 7 day is 80% correct but then 10-day to 1 month only right half the time. 5 days with 90% accuracy is pretty good! Like i said better than no forecast (Also never look at one model look at all of them) But yeah usually USUALLY cold forecasts are right but those were just the excpetions that make the forecasts better. Also you still have to rely on them or else say bye to your upper subtropical palms and stuff! Or if you dont want to just cover your palms up before the first 16 degrees or yeah.

2 days out, multiple forecasting sites were wrong including the government.  Easily seen in the comments as it happened complete with the forecast caught in graphic form.

Those are the facts.  Sorry 

 

 

 

[MarcusH]

4 minutes ago, jwitt said:

2 days out, multiple forecasting sites were wrong including the government.  Easily seen in the comments as it happened complete with the forecast caught in graphic form.

Those are the facts.  Sorry 

 

 

 

Once upon a time I went to a flight school for a Private Pilot license,  had to break up school half way because of a new job but anyway we were studying parts of meteorology and it says all weather after the 3rd day is up in the air.  Weather is hard to predict . As a matter of fact I just finished watching a video clip on YouTube where a Ercot meteorologist warns Texans that they need to prepare for extreme cold this winter. He pointed out it's still going to be a warm winter but with extreme lows predicted 14f or lower in Dallas, 19f or lower in Austin and 21f or lower in Houston. I don't know where San Antonio will be probably in the middle of Houston and Austin.  Could it be that these extreme lows become the norm ? If that's the case it wouldn't leave no room for zone pushing palms in Texas anymore unless protected.  

[jwitt]

10 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Once upon a time I went to a flight school for a Private Pilot license,  had to break up school half way because of a new job but anyway we were studying parts of meteorology and it says all weather after the 3rd day is up in the air.  Weather is hard to predict . As a matter of fact I just finished watching a video clip on YouTube where a Ercot meteorologist warns Texans that they need to prepare for extreme cold this winter. He pointed out it's still going to be a warm winter but with extreme lows predicted 14f or lower in Dallas, 19f or lower in Austin and 21f or lower in Houston. I don't know where San Antonio will be probably in the middle of Houston and Austin.  Could it be that these extreme lows become the norm ? If that's the case it wouldn't leave no room for zone pushing palms in Texas anymore unless protected.  

My hunch is the cold will be shunted east and Texas will catch the edge. 

Could that be why Austin is (so)close to Houston in your forecast model? San Antonio may come out warmer than Houston this year. 

Just my feeling for this winter. 

But winter has yet to officially start.....

 

 

[MarcusH]

4 minutes ago, jwitt said:

My hunch is the cold will be shunted east and Texas will catch the edge. 

Could that be why Austin is (so)close to Houston in your forecast model? San Antonio may come out warmer than Houston this year. 

Just my feeling for this winter. 

But winter has yet to officially start.....

 

 

San Antonio and Austin share pretty much the same distance to Houston approximately 2.5 hrs to the center of Houston but we, San Antonians are about 75 miles further south of Austin.  We're usually slightly warmer in the winter time.  I don't know but I'm very curious about this winter . We had quite a few winters with "cold winters " . So do we see a shift into warmer lows or is it going to continue being cold ?  If so we can officially say that we're outside of a warm cycle that means getting prepared for more years of extreme winter weather.  Not trying to panic but I also don't want to sugarcoat it either. 

[JeskiM]

Hmm, at risk of getting myself pulled too deeply into weather and climate debates, I will add a little to this discussion, but first I need to give you my background.

30 years ago I got my BS and MS in Atmospheric Sciences. Forecastng beyond a few days was not my forte as I was mostly inolved in research around meso-scale convective systems and climatology of the plains (from east of the front range of the Rockies to roughly Kansas City and then north/south from there). I was heavily involved in Project VORTEX back in the 90s and by the end of my "career" in meteorology I was doing private consulting to insurance companies that mostly covered agriculture in the US and Canadian plains states.

I have since ceased doing meteorological work as my primary job and currently build custom database solutions. However I still keep up with a lot of the ongoing research focused around  "climatology" ... which is a very big topic in itself.

Regarding the 2021 cold snap one thing to point out is that a given computer model will typically gravitate towards either a warm or cold bias as the forecast goes further out in time. Usually an arctic airmass that drops south is fairly shallow ... it will not extend more than 1 km AGL (above ground level) ... especially as the airmass moves to lower latitudes. Some models struggle with these shallow surface layers and don't "see" them very well.

Another issue with forecasting is that there are many models to consider. Even for a given model and model run there is going to be a large spread between all the solutions. Some will be extreme. If you were to watch the models that run 2 to 4 times everyday, then every week of every winter you will see one of these extreme cold events being forecasted somewhere ... I saw one model run the other day having teens into central FL for around Dec. 20th !

In the Feb. 2021 event I remember seeing the early model runs showing temps real low for central TX and I brushed it off as an outlier. But over the days, more and more of the model runs were converging on it being a very strong cold snap.  That convergence and persistence of the various model solutions is what collectorpalms was picking up on and warning us about. It was only a matter of just how cold would it actually get.  So how cold would it get ?  That depended on many things, but mostly involved cold air advection and thermal radiation which will be modulated by cloud cover and snow on the ground, and the overall moderation of the airmass.  The best model runs close to realtime were those that had a good handle on the depth of that airmass, the amount of snow on the ground, and cloud cover. 

Parameterizing and predicting cloud cover is an area where forecasting models are pretty weak. Predicting snow and winter precip is pretty hard also as it typically falls in narrow bands (narrow being relative).

I know I was holding my breath thinking it wouldn't get that cold as it was impossible for me to envision seeing that kind if weather down here despite what all the past records clearly show.  .... that it can indeed happen here, albeit rarely.

So what does one do moving on from that event ? 

Well, I decided to keep on planting !

-Matt

[JeskiM]

Oh, I forget to add one more piece:  regarding the winter forecast for the CONUS (lower 48).

I agree with the forecast from ERCOT.  I think that the cold snaps this year will stay further to the east and northeast of TX. Why ?

1 - it is a La Nina winter and the oceanic / atmospheric coupling is behaving as expected.

2 - the western GoM (Gulf of Mexico) is running warmer than normal.  This can help to keep TX under higher pressure and a more moist airmass which can keep temps warmer, especially at night when not under the influence of a dry airnass.

3 - eastern pacific around souhern CA / baja is running colder than normal. This could help draw more cut-off low pressures to form off of CA which will cause ridging over TX.

4 - persistence.  The wx pattern of the last month or so is likely to persist through winter. 

This doesn't mean we can't see cold. It simply means that the overall avg T for the winter will likely be above average.   .... more days of warmer than normal vs colder than normal.  I think we will get some cold on the western/ glancing side of the arctic airmasses that drop south.  

.... and as my wife knows ... never trust a meteorologist

-Matt

 

[Chester B]

16 hours ago, MarcusH said:

You sound sooo German lol. My work was 10 minutes away . The engine couldn't warm up that fast but there was no way I would drive inside a cold car lol. 

Sorry, I do work as an engineer.   Of all the cars I've owned BMW's are the slowest to warm up, at least the ones with the 3.0 Inline six.

[Silas_Sancona]

11 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

Oh, I forget to add one more piece:  regarding the winter forecast for the CONUS (lower 48).

I agree with the forecast from ERCOT.  I think that the cold snaps this year will stay further to the east and northeast of TX. Why ?

1 - it is a La Nina winter and the oceanic / atmospheric coupling is behaving as expected.

2 - the western GoM (Gulf of Mexico) is running warmer than normal.  This can help to keep TX under higher pressure and a more moist airmass which can keep temps warmer, especially at night when not under the influence of a dry airnass.

3 - eastern pacific around souhern CA / baja is running colder than normal. This could help draw more cut-off low pressures to form off of CA which will cause ridging over TX.

4 - persistence.  The wx pattern of the last month or so is likely to persist through winter. 

This doesn't mean we can't see cold. It simply means that the overall avg T for the winter will likely be above average.   .... more days of warmer than normal vs colder than normal.  I think we will get some cold on the western/ glancing side of the arctic airmasses that drop south.  

.... and as my wife knows ... never trust a meteorologist

-Matt

 

Only thing i'd disagree on would be current temps off CA..

Pretty standard fare for this time of year here / warm-ish further offshore..  Interesting to see how that blob influences things -if it hangs around-  next month.

Coldest anomalies are off Baja Sur.. 



SOTO Data:


 

[JeskiM]

@Silas_Sancona

You are correct. Thanks for the correction.

I typed my response wo actually having the anomaly map up, wirh eyeballs on it ... I had the picture in my head fron when I last looked at it a few days ago.

That colder area is indeed further south of CA. 

-Matt

[MarcusH]

53 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

Oh, I forget to add one more piece:  regarding the winter forecast for the CONUS (lower 48).

I agree with the forecast from ERCOT.  I think that the cold snaps this year will stay further to the east and northeast of TX. Why ?

1 - it is a La Nina winter and the oceanic / atmospheric coupling is behaving as expected.

2 - the western GoM (Gulf of Mexico) is running warmer than normal.  This can help to keep TX under higher pressure and a more moist airmass which can keep temps warmer, especially at night when not under the influence of a dry airnass.

3 - eastern pacific around souhern CA / baja is running colder than normal. This could help draw more cut-off low pressures to form off of CA which will cause ridging over TX.

4 - persistence.  The wx pattern of the last month or so is likely to persist through winter. 

This doesn't mean we can't see cold. It simply means that the overall avg T for the winter will likely be above average.   .... more days of warmer than normal vs colder than normal.  I think we will get some cold on the western/ glancing side of the arctic airmasses that drop south.  

.... and as my wife knows ... never trust a meteorologist

-Matt

 

Hi Matt, thank you for giving us an inside view of the work you were/are involved with. Very interesting and informative and I hope to hear more from you sharing your knowledge and predictions with us in future.  What we need here are weather/climate experts like you.

[Silas_Sancona]

23 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

@Silas_Sancona

You are correct. Thanks for the correction.

I typed my response wo actually having the anomaly map up, wirh eyeballs on it ... I had the picture in my head fron when I last looked at it a few days ago.

That colder area is indeed further south of CA. 

-Matt

No worries.. 

[JeskiM]

@MarcusH

Lol. I wouldn't consider myself an expert in climate. In this area, expert is subjective. Bill Nye (science guy) thinks he's an expert as one example.

Here's somthings to consider when it comes to that topic :

1 - till very recently one could not get a degree in climatology. Now there are programs in some university that are branded along those lines. I say "branded" because of #2 below.

2 - climate studies are very multi-disciplinary in nature. It is a diverse group effort. It requires understanding of various non-linear synergistic systems. For example one has to understand the atmosphere in all scales over time and all the other systems it interacts with such as the ocean, biosphere, cryosphere, geology, geography, evolving land usage, solar variables, etc.

For example there was a study published a few months ago where it's now been found that plants are locking up more CO2 than we thought.

https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/plants-are-absorbing-31-more-carbon-dioxide-than-previously-thought-392349

Ooops, need to go update climate models for that.

It wasn't climatologist that found that, but it is climatologists that must account for that one newly updated datapoint alone and its affects. The list of these things goes on and on ....

It's a constantly evolving area of study with many moving parts and tremendous debates ... some of which are beyond ugly. 

-Matt

[PaPalmTrees]

I was just looking at the forecast and saw 2 lows in the teens this is not normal December weather hopefully the forecast changes.🤞

 

[PaPalmTrees]

Update, The forecast Changed.

[MarcusH]

15 hours ago, PaPalmTrees said:

Update, The forecast Changed.

According to your profile you're in PA hardiness zone 7a. I don't see nothing out of the ordinary with the temperatures you're providing. It's January in less than 2 weeks. We had a low of 16f almost at the same time 2 years ago ,here in San Antonio (8b/9a) .  

 

[PaPalmTrees]

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

According to your profile you're in PA hardiness zone 7a. I don't see nothing out of the ordinary with the temperatures you're providing. It's January in less than 2 weeks. We had a low of 16f almost at the same time 2 years ago ,here in San Antonio (8b/9a) .  

 

Good point I just don't normally see this in December but you're right im z7a this can happen. 

[Chester B]

Here's another example of zone 7A.  My mom lives in Niagara on the Lake, Ontario, Canada.  It's been pretty mild this year, but the coldest months are Jan/Feb.

[DTS]

What do you mean -6?

Only weather.com shows me getting that low, wunderground says only 10, I'll stick to beliving the warmer forecast 😆

[MarcusH]

4 hours ago, PaPalmTrees said:

Good point I just don't normally see this in December but you're right im z7a this can happen. 

What is the norm? There's no norm in climate because climate changes all the time.  Winters used to be colder in general , the average temperatures are increasing worldwide ( coming out of the ice age) ,but December is "normally " a cold month with winter like temperatures in your region and most others places inland in the northern hemisphere.  Take a look at your ultimate lows from October to May from the last 100 years , you'll be surprised how cold Decembers can be. 

[Las Palmas Norte]

No polar air so far this season. A couple of light ephemeral frosts at 33°F. Today its a soaker.

 

[PaPalmTrees]

6 hours ago, MarcusH said:

What is the norm? There's no norm in climate because climate changes all the time.  Winters used to be colder in general , the average temperatures are increasing worldwide ( coming out of the ice age) ,but December is "normally " a cold month with winter like temperatures in your region and most others places inland in the northern hemisphere.  Take a look at your ultimate lows from October to May from the last 100 years , you'll be surprised how cold Decembers can be. 

You're right, just the past couple years I've been gardening I've been just used to warmer December's. also im aware that climate fluctuates often. thank you.