Texas Palms

[Robert Cade Ross]

1 minute ago, MarcusH said:

I look at the whole picture like the last 100 years.  I'm only interested in the lows and the record lows get milder .  Not even in South Florida have temperatures been steadily warm( 10a/b).  It snowed in Miami in 1977.  SFLA experienced temperatures in the upper 20s in the 1980s enough to kill a good amount of Coconuts.  It isn't only Texas that gets beaten up by those Canadian storms. The God of the Arctic plays Russian Roulette every year. Which region am I going to pick ? Buckle up and enjoy the ride. 

Our turn once again lol . I’m already accepting my fate of seeing fried robsutas around HTX 😹😹😹

[jwitt]

21 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

I look at the whole picture like the last 100 years.  I'm only interested in the lows and the record lows get milder .  Not even in South Florida have temperatures been steadily warm( 10a/b).  It snowed in Miami in 1977.  SFLA experienced temperatures in the upper 20s in the 1980s enough to kill a good amount of Coconuts.  It isn't only Texas that gets beaten up by those Canadian storms. The God of the Arctic plays Russian Roulette every year. Which region am I going to pick ? Buckle up and enjoy the ride. 

Personally saw icicles on Marco Island in the eighties. 

They could easily use the last 100 years where available, although you may lose some trending.

Unless.....

[Xenon]

7 minutes ago, jwitt said:

Personally saw icicles on Marco Island in the eighties. 

They could easily use the last 100 years where available, although you may lose some trending.

Unless.....

Climate normals (and by extension, USDA zone maps) are conventionally based on 30 years of data.

The maps have always shifted. The 1990 map that was used for a loooong time is very conservative with the zones given the data range used.

Let's not get this thread deleted  😝

[MarcusH]

38 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

Our turn once again lol . I’m already accepting my fate of seeing fried robsutas around HTX 😹😹😹

Lol being optimistic is the right mindset to open the doors for Mr.Frost.  Expect cold temperatures but don't think of 2021.  Washies bounce back quickly.  If we get a mild winter then we should be more than happy and enjoy it while it lasts.  Who knows where we're all going to end up in the future.  Maybe we all do Alan style covering our Sabals and Washies in Texas lol.  7a/b winters here we go. 

[jwitt]

14 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Climate normals (and by extension, USDA zone maps) are conventionally based on 30 years of data.

The maps have always shifted. The 1990 map that was used for a loooong time is very conservative with the zones given the data range used.

Let's not get this thread deleted  😝

They pick and choose the last thirty years. At least with the latest and greatest USDA map.  Which is not truly representative of the latest conditions or trends. 

Perfectly appropriate for a thread on Texas palms. 

That is a fact. 

[MarcusH]

1 hour ago, jwitt said:

They pick and choose the last thirty years. At least with the latest and greatest USDA map.  Which is not truly representative of the latest conditions or trends. 

Perfectly appropriate for a thread on Texas palms. 

That is a fact. 

TX,NM,LA, OK we're always at high risk and talking about cold fronds is helpful.  We learn,  we fail but we always move on.  We know what proved to be bulletproof and what not.  I agree to experiment with palms to learn more about the impact of cold temperatures.  

[RedRabbit]

7 hours ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

A Mule with heavy queen genetics looks 10x more tropical/ coconuty than a queen and it’s hardy longterm  for HTX 

I’ll take that over a queen any day of the week. 👏

[jwitt]

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

TX,NM,LA, OK we're always at high risk and talking about cold fronds is helpful.  We learn,  we fail but we always move on.  We know what proved to be bulletproof and what not.  I agree to experiment with palms to learn more about the impact of cold temperatures.  

It is a great way to learn.

I wish I knew what I now know, decades ago. 

Still learning.....

Some successes, many failures.  

And at the end of the day, my locale is many times more limited than San Antonio. 

I learn from many Texas reports. 

 

 

[ahosey01]

3 hours ago, Xenon said:

Climate normals (and by extension, USDA zone maps) are conventionally based on 30 years of data.

The maps have always shifted. The 1990 map that was used for a loooong time is very conservative with the zones given the data range used.

Let's not get this thread deleted  😝

One of the things I noticed when I compared Tampa and Brownsville was how Tampa swings all around (20-year average min between 26 and 34 depending on the 20-year period) but Brownsville has been fairly consistent (30.5-32.5) since the 1960s.  Wonder if it has to do with the water or something I don't know.

[NBTX11]

I lived in Tampa for 4 years. I can remember some brutal nights with 30 degree lows and howling winds which made it feel like single digits. This didn’t happen a lot but when it did watch out. 

[Robert Cade Ross]

4 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Lol being optimistic is the right mindset to open the doors for Mr.Frost.  Expect cold temperatures but don't think of 2021.  Washies bounce back quickly.  If we get a mild winter then we should be more than happy and enjoy it while it lasts.  Who knows where we're all going to end up in the future.  Maybe we all do Alan style covering our Sabals and Washies in Texas lol.  7a/b winters here we go. 

After the January freeze 19° in Alvin the coldest temp seen again was 34°  for winter one morning at least lol . Supposed to flirt with 39° potentially this week 

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, ahosey01 said:

One of the things I noticed when I compared Tampa and Brownsville was how Tampa swings all around (20-year average min between 26 and 34 depending on the 20-year period) but Brownsville has been fairly consistent (30.5-32.5) since the 1960s.  Wonder if it has to do with the water or something I don't know.

Is the data all from one airport/station? Sometimes data is compiled from multiple stations to approximate a continuous record. 

I've spent some time in Tampa Bay (as far north as Spring Hill down to SW Florida) in the past few years and there's a lot of different microclimates (vs Brownsville) due to water and UHI. Hard to treat it as a monolithic "Tampa". 

Plus Florida really hasn't seen the killer long duration microclimate-destroyer advective freeze since the 1980s, maybe lite version in 2010. FL has been trending warmer than ever and some Floridians now complain about a statistically average winter as a "cold winter" 😝

[Xenon]

14 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

After the January freeze 19° in Alvin the coldest temp seen again was 34°  for winter one morning at least lol . Supposed to flirt with 39° potentially this week 

NWS has Alvin at 42F for Thurs morning...same as Katy on I-10😆. I'm always surprised how cold Alvin is compared to Friendswood or Pearland.

NWS is calling 45F, 46F, and 49F for Pearland, Hobby, and Herman Park. 

[ahosey01]

11 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Is the data all from one airport/station? Sometimes data is compiled from multiple stations to approximate a continuous record. 

I've spent some time in Tampa Bay (as far north as Spring Hill down to SW Florida) in the past few years and there's a lot of different microclimates (vs Brownsville) due to water and UHI. Hard to treat it as a monolithic "Tampa". 

Plus Florida really hasn't seen the killer long duration microclimate-destroyer advective freeze since the 1980s, maybe lite version in 2010. FL has been trending warmer than ever and some Floridians now complain about a statistically average winter as a "cold winter" 😝

Yeah so it was supposedly from a single station although I have no idea if thats actually a single station.

The two have almost the same climate, but Brownsville annual minimums are higher by a degree or two.  Barring the freak event of 1899 which I question, the advective freeze events are also very similar.  Brownsville 16F in 1989 and 19F in 1983, Tampa 18F in 1985.

The big difference in terms of temps is Brownsville is way hotter in the summer, with almost every month having recorded a 100F temp while very few were ever recorded (if any... now that I think about it) in Tampa.  Brownsville also records less precipitation but higher dew points on average.

[ahosey01]

10 minutes ago, Xenon said:

NWS has Alvin at 42F for Thurs morning...same as Katy on I-10😆. I'm always surprised how cold Alvin is compared to Friendswood or Pearland.

NWS is calling 45F, 46F, and 49F for Pearland, Hobby, and Herman Park. 

Dude Laredo is forecast for 44F and Harlingen for 48F, at least right now.  We're forecast for 53F.  Chilly day coming.

[Swolte]

I always treated the last couple of winters as exceptional. Every year, I was optimistic that we wouldn't get a cold snap... and each year it was another disappointment (I lost more palms last year than in '21, possibly due to fungal development after heavy rains). 

This time I am actually ready. I have enough frost cloth, organized in large laundry baskets by size. Clips, stakes, etc... all ready to go!  I got more than enough bales with straw along with some lined buckets for some of the smaller stuff. 

I am getting to a point where I won't protect some of the larger palms anymore. They may face a real test this winter if we get another arctic surprise.    

[Robert Cade Ross]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

NWS has Alvin at 42F for Thurs morning...same as Katy on I-10😆. I'm always surprised how cold Alvin is compared to Friendswood or Pearland.

NWS is calling 45F, 46F, and 49F for Pearland, Hobby, and Herman Park. 

Hmm 42° is slightly better lol 

[Victor likes palms]

2 hours ago, ahosey01 said:

Dude Laredo is forecast for 44F and Harlingen for 48F, at least right now.  We're forecast for 53F.  Chilly day coming.

Were forecasted at 39 degrees in Beeville for Thursday morning. 

[Dwarf Fan]

19 hours ago, Xenon said:

If the winter low is more than 5 degrees below the 30 year average this winter, I think I'll finally throw in the towel. 3 out of the last 4 winters with lows 8-10+ degrees below the average is demoralizing enough. Can't take anymore!

Tagged for future reference just in case you forget you posted this Jonathan…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

… just kidding live your best Palm life bud! 🙌

 

[MarcusH]

Just saw this CIDP on my route. There's another one I discovered close by, I'll look it up later on Google. Nice recovery.  Clear Crest Dr in SA

[PA-TX2024]

13 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Just saw this CIDP on my route. There's another one I discovered close by, I'll look it up later on Google. Nice recovery.  Clear Crest Dr in SA

Wow. That one is very old.

[jwitt]

@MarcusH Be nice to the old-timers! They usually have a story to tell.  Something like 2011, 1980's, etc. . Give em time, they'll tell you!

 

[Robert Cade Ross]

Humble Tx today year #2 for the king palm bismarkia bamboo palm fried to the ground at 19° 

[Xenon]

29 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

bamboo palm fried to the ground at 19° 

That looks like the Chamaedorea seifrizii they sell at Lowes? Now I want one...that's a pretty good comeback! Sounds like a winner and should be ok most winters. 

[Fusca]

8 minutes ago, Xenon said:

That looks like the Chamaedorea seifrizii they sell at Lowes? Now I want one...that's a pretty good comeback! Sounds like a winner and should be ok most winters. 

That is a pleasant surprise!  Here I had several Chamaedorea oblongata seedlings come out of 27° unprotected with no damage which surprised me also.  They're just now going pinnate.

[MarcusH]

2 hours ago, jwitt said:

@MarcusH Be nice to the old-timers! They usually have a story to tell.  Something like 2011, 1980's, etc. . Give em time, they'll tell you!

 

You know Jim , every day when I come back from home I just take my time and look at my palms I also touch the fronds for some reason. I like to feel connected to them.  The old ones definitely have a story to tell especially the years you have mentioned.  That's why I choose cold hardy palms because I like to grow old with them.  Sounds crazy right?  

[Dwarf Fan]

On 11/19/2024 at 7:25 PM, ahosey01 said:

Dude Laredo is forecast for 44F and Harlingen for 48F, at least right now.  We're forecast for 53F.  Chilly day coming.

49F predicted here we shall see.

[Xenon]

9 minutes ago, Dwarf Fan said:

49F predicted here we shall see.

NWS has you staying above 60F. Always recommend the NWS point forecast...you can click anywhere on the minimap to get a precise forecast. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-97.23329544486478&lat=27.608464077926115

[MarcusH]

9 minutes ago, Dwarf Fan said:

49F predicted here we shall see.

39F here. I'm pretty relaxed I'm not growing Coconut palm trees lol. Once it gets into the low 20s I start tracking the cold frond .

 

[Xenon]

Cold in Htown tonight, at least the 30s are staying far away

[MarcusH]

26 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Cold in Htown tonight, at least the 30s are staying far away

They will come back before you know it lol

[Robert Cade Ross]

1 hour ago, Xenon said:

That looks like the Chamaedorea seifrizii they sell at Lowes? Now I want one...that's a pretty good comeback! Sounds like a winner and should be ok most winters. 

Yes $80 at Lowe’s lol …

[Robert Cade Ross]

11 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

They will come back before you know it lol

First possible freeze around December 6th long range model is hinting 👀

[Robert Cade Ross]

October 2022 I took this pic last second of a large 2021 queen survivor in Friendswood I wish I could find the road again…. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ all I remember is it’s about 2 miles east of Calvary  Houston church . 

[kinzyjr]

3 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

First possible freeze around December 6th long range model is hinting 👀

I sure hope not.  You all have paid the price twice already this decade.  We don't want it here either, though.  Let's keep it up in Greenland where it belongs. 🌴

[Robert Cade Ross]

Update found it on Google maps poor thing perished somewhere from late 2023- to now … at least it was able to survive 2021 ☺️

[Xenon]

37 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

They will come back before you know it lol

That's fine, just not before Thanksgiving. I'm not in town to set up the gameplan for my tropical fruits and tropical palms 🙃. 

[Xenon]

So looking at the last 30 winter seasons at Houston Hobby gives a 43% chance of a zone 10 winter and a 10% chance of a zone 8 winter. May the odds be in our favor guys 😄😂

Zone 10 winter seasons 🌴: 

2019-2020
2018-2019
2015-2016
2014-2015
2012-2013
2011-2012
2008-2009
2007-2008
2005-2006
2003-2004
1999-2000
1997-1998
1994-1995

Zone 8 winter seasons (BOOOO!!!!):

2022-2023
2020-2021
2017-2018

[Robert Cade Ross]

1 minute ago, Xenon said:

So looking at the last 30 winter seasons at Houston Hobby gives a 43% chance of a zone 10 winter and a 10% chance of a zone 8 winter. May the odds be in our favor guys 😄😂

Zone 10 winter seasons 🌴: 

2019-2020
2018-2019
2015-2016
2014-2015
2012-2013
2011-2012
2008-2009
2007-2008
2005-2006
2003-2004
1999-2000
1997-1998
1994-1995

Zone 8 winter seasons (BOOOO!!!!):

2022-2023
2020-2021
2017-2018

How was 18 considered a z10 year ? It was icicles & dead crownshaft / queen palm killer 19° cold in south Houston that year lol 🫣 

[Xenon]

1 minute ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

How was 18 considered a z10 year ? It was icicles & dead crownshaft / queen palm killer 19° cold in south Houston that year lol 🫣 

that was January 2018 aka the 2017-2018 season noted in the zone 8 column