Worst start to a summer in 20 years for the UK

[UK_Palms]

So the temperatures have been crap here really since June 1st. We had a 24C / 75F day on the 2nd June but the rest of the days have been pretty lacklustre. Not very warm, not overly sunny but still pretty damn dry. Still only 0.2mm at Heathrow in London.

 

Data for St Catherine’s Point near Ventnor on the Isle of Wight. Really poor daytime highs there, but bone dry.

Data for Culdrose in Cornwall near Penzance. Some warmer days than Ventnor.

The airmass overhead is derived from the arctic and very cold for the time of year. Much of the cold air has been shunted out of that arctic region and sent in our direction. More and more of it will arrive in the coming days.

 

Under clear skies and low hPa’s, some places in southern and central England saw their coldest June night in 18 years last night. I went down to 3.7C / 39F here even. St James Park in London only went down to 7.4C / 45F. Still pretty chilly.

 

The forecast is horrendous for next week. As bad as I have ever seen it going into mid-June for London and southeast England especially! It wouldn’t be so bad if the past 7-10 days were warmer before it. Basically the first 15-20 days of summer are going to be poor. Possibly beyond that too.

 

The main driving force for the lacklustre temperatures and cooler airmass overhead is the -NAO. Until that turns positive, or more neutral, we are going to have a shoddy summer. But it should shift sooner or later in the coming weeks.

 

The -NAO is now effecting all of Western Europe and northwest Africa. Some parts of Morocco seeing their lowest June temperatures on record. While all the heat is concentrated out east around Sudan, Egypt, Greece, Balkans, Middle East, Russia etc.

 

I think we will be waiting until late June or early July before we get anything decently warm and properly sunny now. There has just been no Azores High influence with this persistent -NAO setup.

 

[Aceraceae]

14 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

 

Under clear skies and low hPa’s, some places in southern and central England saw their coldest June night in 18 years last night. I went down to 3.7C / 39F here even. St James Park in London only went down to 7.4C / 45F. Still pretty chilly.

Nothing below 40 F or 4 to 5 C reported in Lerwick, Shetland. 

[Foxpalms]

At this time of the year with the short nights all the masonry from the houses even on a small localized scale does make a difference. None of the weather stations in the garden have dropped below 10c so far in June. Gfs runs are showing an above average end to June but who knows. Morocco and Spain look like they will heat up lots towards the end of June so any air masses coming up will be very warm.  On the 24th I can even see a low of 19c forecasted for here on one forecasted. We can only hope these extremely cool temps go away!

[UK_Palms]

This time last year it was 32C / 90F in London and SE England. We had almost a week straight of 30C+ temps and wall to wall sunshine with high pressure firmly over us. Compare that to a rather pathetic 16C today and most of this week, with low pressure and a northerly, arctic air feed. Worlds apart.

Hopefully something like this comes off towards the end of the month! Taken from last nights 18Z GFS run. 🤣

 

This GEM ensemble casually throws out 37C / 98-99F for parts of eastern England as well. Obviously it wont happen. I think June is going to be a bit of a write-off but we will have a back loaded summer, a bit like 2003, 2016 or 2020.

[UK_Palms]

Rainfall totals are creeping up now a bit. 11 days of June gone basically and Heathrow is now on 1.8mm / 0.07 inches. Temperatures are terrible though so far due to that -NAO giving us a northwest air feed from Greenland direction. Embarrassing temps really. Sunshine pretty crap as well for London.

The south coast has been a bit drier. Bournemouth in Dorset is reporting 0.6mm / 0.02 inches after 11 days of June.

Some of the more exotic south coast microclimates like Ventnor and Isles of Scilly are still only on 0.2mm / 0.008 inches so far this month. The Met station at St Helier is on 0mm / 0 inches. So no measurable rainfall for the first 11 days of summer there. Much sunnier in these areas as well compared to London.

 

So the south coast in general has been pretty damn dry so far. Northern England and Scotland is a different story entirely though where it has been quite wet. 

[UK_Palms]

Horrendous temperatures here. Last night I had my coldest June night in 29 years out in the countryside with a low of 3C / 38F. Typically it was cloudy all day preventing much daytime heating, then the skies clear at sunset and remained clear all night long with 0C hPa’s overhead, maximising radiational cooling. Then lo and behold it is cloudy again today limiting daytime warmup again. Just such an awful setup in general. The uppers (hPa’s) are some of the worst I have seen in June and we are almost halfway through the month now.

My nearest Wunderground station recorded a low of 3.1C / 38F last night. So pretty much identical to my minimum. That station has had 1.23mm / 0.04 inches of rain this month however, compared to my 0.79mm / 0.03 inches. Not much in it still.

The outlook is crap. The first 2/3 of June are a write-off. Hopefully things will be turning around this time next week. Low temps with a few rain showers. To say that we have had a benign, crap start to summer is an understatement.

The -NAO setup isn’t just screwing us. The Spanish Med has been absolutely inundated with floods. Some parts had 75mm / 3 inches of rainfall in an hour yesterday. This is right on their Mediterranean coast.

Really bad in Palma de Mallorca…

 

[sped94]

This month of June is very unusual.
To be honest, the weather here has been crazy since March...

[Foxpalms]

Finally! Multiple days of a warm airmass overhead. High 20s, low 30s at least and lows over 20c.

[UK_Palms]

As crap as this opening month of summer has been, it is still on course to meet the Csb (warm-summer Med) criteria. It can instantly qualify for it just going by this month alone due to the massive drop off in rainfall now that we are in summer.

Technically speaking the driest summer month just needs to receive less than 30.5mm / 1.2 inches of rainfall overall and the wettest winter month needs to receive 3 x as much rainfall as the driest summer month. Citing Oregon State university classification…

Some sources list parts of southern England as being Csb already, although the scope for this is already much more widespread in southeast England especially.

February for example had 94mm / 3.7 inches in what was a very wet winter and October - April period in general. As expected with a borderline Med climate nowadays. Rainfall is not as evenly distributed throughout the year as it used to be, or like people still make it out to be.

 

So far June is on 12.4mm / 0.48 inches at Heathrow, in what has been a fairly ‘unsettled’ and poor month still overall. Yet there is still a noticeable drop off in rainfall. As long as there is not more than 30.5mm / 1.19 inches of rainfall by month end, it would qualify as Csb technically speaking. It will likely be a lot less than that.

The outlook is a bit warmer this week and looking fairly dry as we see out the remainder of the month. Possibly something much, much warmer during the last week of June.

 

The analogs suggest June will be the wettest and coolest summer month this year, so if this month still qualifies us for warm-summer Med before the other two warmer/drier summer months even arrive, that is quite telling. Again the driest summer month just needs to receive less than 30.5mm / 1.2 inches of rainfall and less than 1/3 of the wettest winter month total. July and August are forecasted to be the driest two summer months this year, yet June is still likely going to qualify London and SE England as Csb before the driest period even arrives. Just saying…

ECM was a beauty this morning, but 10 days out. Probably low 30’s C / 90F+ if this materialises. Better late than never.

 

Accumulated precipitation between now and 27th… showing 1mm in some places. 3-4mm at worse in my area. Again that would get the Csb qualification over the line already in a lacklustre month. Heathrow would finish the month on about 14mm / 0.5 inches.

[Foxpalms]

@UK_Palms Since we are forecasted to have high pressure over us and low pressure to the east and west, a heat dome, effect can easily happen. Theoretically even high 30s could happen. About two days ago the weather outlooks gfs run was showing 36c temps for London.  Where that low pressure sits is going to determine how hot we get.  I would guess  warm for the last week of the month then the 30th to July the 3rd cooler temps in the low 20c's before it warms up again.

[UK_Palms]

@Foxpalms I don’t think we will have anything properly hot yet, not until July. But we may see the first 30C / 86F day possibly by Sunday / Monday perhaps. It’s certainly looking much warmer. But nothing crazy.

This June is seriously playing catch up in the temperature and sunshine departments. As it stands, it is the latest 28C / 82F for the UK since 2016 (8 years ago). That one was another ‘back loaded’ summer.

Sunshine levels aren’t really good enough either, although they are finally starting to improve now. But generally quite bad across the board everywhere. That will go up considerably though in the next 10-14 days.

Despite the below average sunshine, it has still been pretty damn dry. Looking at Met Office affiliated rain gauges on the network with the Environmental Agency, the lowest I can see is Eastney near Southsea, Portsmouth. That station is only on 0.3mm / 0.01 inches up the 18th now. So dry as a bone really.

Not far from that, the eastern half of Hayling is also looking extremely dry too. This PWS has only registered 0.51mm / 0.02 inches up to the 18th now.

Closer to home, I am on 7.9mm / 0.31 inches here up to the 18th. This is pretty similar to the Environmental Agency rain gauge not far from me in Guildford which is on a marginally lower 7.8mm / 0.30 inches.

 

Despite having the wettest October - May period on record, the grass is already showing signs of yellowing around here and drought is already looming. And that is after a lacklustre, cool start to summer as well for us. It shows how quickly things can shift. A few very dry weeks in summer and the pendulum swings the other way. It’s either feast for famine with rainfall nowadays.

[UK_Palms]

Here comes the warmth, finally..

 

The UKV (Met Office) has 32C / 90F on Thursday…

 

2024 rainfall stats from Met Office stations. All these had their wettest month in February or January…

MANSTON, KENT

Wettest month - February (93.2mm / 3.67 inches)

Driest month - June (8.2mm / 0.32 inches)*

 

PORTLAND, DORSET

Wettest month - February (148.4mm / 5.84 inches)

Driest month - June (9.2mm / 0.36 inches)*

 

MIDDLE WALLOP, HAMPSHIRE

Wettest month - February (131.2mm / 5.16 inches)

Driest month - June (9.6mm / 0.37 inches)*

 

HURN (BOURNEMOUTH), HAMPSHIRE

Wettest month - February (147mm / 5.78 inches)

Driest month - June (11.4mm / 0.44 inches)*

 

THORNEY ISLAND, WEST SUSSEX

Wettest month - January (69.6mm / 2.75 inches)

Driest month - June (12.2mm / 0.48 inches)*

 

HEATHROW, LONDON

Wettest month - February (99.8mm / 3.92 inches)

Driest month - June (13mm / 0.51 inches)*

 

CHURCH LAWFORD, WARWICKSHIRE

Wettest month - February (128.2mm / 5.04 inches)

Driest month - June (9.8mm / 0.38 inches)*

 

EXETER AIRPORT, DEVON

Wettest month - February (125.4mm / 4.93 inches)

Driest month - June (11.6mm / 0.45 inches)*

 

Some Environmental Agency rain gauges for this June…

Winterbourne Stoke - June (6.5mm / 0.25 inches)*

Guildford, Surrey - June (7.8mm / 0.30 inches)*

Hornsey, London - June (8.0mm / 0.31 inches)*

Hogsmill, London - June (9.3mm / 0.36 inches)*

 

Hastings - June (10.5mm / 0.41 inches)*

 

The Köppen Climate classification has the driest summer month at ‘less than 40mm or 1.6 inches of rainfall’ for Csb (warm-summer Med) which means the criteria is certainly reached, again. Along with the wettest winter month being more than 3 x as wet as the driest summer month. In fact these areas aren’t going to meet the Cfb (temperate oceanic) classification this year due to the February and June rainfall totals.

The grass is certainly turning here now already after the wettest autumn - spring period on record. It didn’t take long and temperatures have been quite lacklustre too…

[UK_Palms]

Max of 30.7C / 87F here yesterday going by my proper equipment.

Looking marginally higher today with about 31C / 88F expected in London area and Surrey where I am. I doubt we will be cracking 32C / 90F this month. I give it a small 5% outside chance later today. Otherwise we will be waiting until mid-July probably. Currently 28.8C / 84F here at 12:30pm.

Still no more rain, although we may get some thunderstorms as we go into July. Hard to tell at this stage. My current June total remains on 7.9mm / 0.30 inches. The grass is getting absolutely nuked, despite the record wet October - May period.

[SeanK]

Back on June 9, you were lamenting the lack of heat. Be careful what you wish for, mate.

(We're in Week #2 of 35°C)

[Foxpalms]

19 hours ago, SeanK said:

Back on June 9, you were lamenting the lack of heat. Be careful what you wish for, mate.

(We're in Week #2 of 35°C)

I would take that over 4c below average temps, here the humidity is low when it's hot.

[UK_Palms]

22 hours ago, SeanK said:

Back on June 9, you were lamenting the lack of heat. Be careful what you wish for, mate.

(We're in Week #2 of 35°C)

It hasn’t been that warm here though. The first 3 weeks of June were lacklustre as hell with only one day over 24C / 76F. The hPa airmass temps overhead have been rubbish.

A really boring period of weather up to the solstice. Not much sun and most days about 20C / 68F. This year was also the latest 28C / 82F for 8 years, since 2016.

The CET is running 1C / 2F below average still up to the 25th (0.5C / 1F below 1990-2020 data) although it has recovered in recent days. As it stands May was warmer than June however, which says a lot. It has also been pretty damn dry though. 0.30 inches here.

 

 

I had a max of 31.2C / 88F on Wednesday. The Met Office recorded 30.5C / 87F at Wisley which is about 10 miles away from me.

 

It was still 23C / 74F in central London at 1am last night. A few areas didn’t drop below 20C / 68F overnight.

 

After 3 days of 28C / 82F+ and 2 days of 31C / 88F for me here, we are back to average or even lacklustre conditions again really. Looking pretty cloudy as well, but ultimately dry still. Mid-low 20’s C.

[Foxpalms]

Lows here have been 19c,18c,18c,17c. 57.4f this morning and feeling cold.

[kinzyjr]

9 minutes ago, Foxpalms said:

Lows here have been 19c,18c,18c,17c. 57.4f this morning and feeling cold.

After a month of 95F-102F, I could probably stand some hoodie and jeans weather.   Hope things shape up for you all over there.  It's been a less than stellar start on this side of the pond as well.

[Foxpalms]

48 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

After a month of 95F-102F, I could probably stand some hoodie and jeans weather.   Hope things shape up for you all over there.  It's been a less than stellar start on this side of the pond as well.

Highs for next week range from 71f-78f.Forcasted lows are 56f-62f however typically the lows are warmer here than the forecast. Not too bad but we could do with more heat. Tues and Wed the highs were over 86f/30c. GFS run's showing low pressure coming off northern Canada sending cold weather our way however that could change. Southern Spain has had days in the high 90s low 100s however that is still cool in comparison to last year.  Seville was in the high 70s yesterday the same as here.

[UK_Palms]

It has finished a somewhat poor, lacklustre June overall. Temperatures were marginally below average down south, but much more below average across the rest of the UK. It was the coldest June CET (Central England Temperature series) in 9 years since 2015.

 

Nights were significantly below average at the start of the month and daytime maxes have been poor by today’s standard.

It is also the first time in almost 200 years that the CET (Central England Temperature series) was colder in June than in May. Yes it was a warm May, but this June has been pretty poor.

 

Despite the shoddy low pressure dominated setup, it was still pretty dry overall, with the exception of northwest Scotland. Not particularly sunny with quite a lot of cloud, but dry still.

12.4mm / 0.48 inches at Heathrow in west London. These figures aren’t 100% accurate. Sunshine hours isn't complete (203 hours) and the actual daytime average max was 22.0C / 72F.

10.8mm / 0.41 inches of rain at Manston in Kent.

8.8mm / 0.34 inches at Portland in Dorset. Northern California weather similar to Eureka. Both in summer and winter.

One of the driest areas appears to be on Hayling Island near Portsmouth. A wunderground station there registered just 0.51mm / 0.02 inches for June.

That same station registered 70.43mm / 2.77 inches back in May, so I doubt it is a faulty reading, hence all the rainfall recorded the previous month.

 

The Environmental Agency (EA) rain gauge at Eastney near Portsmouth registered 0.3mm / 0.01 inches.

 

The EA gauge near me (Guildford) registered 7.8mm / 0.30 inches. Almost identical to what I had here, although other places around here have been drier for sure. Some <5mm areas around my neck of the woods.

The grass has been severely taxed in my area…

 

Driest June on record was 2018 with 0.4mm / 0.01 inches at Heathrow. 6 years ago now.

 

Some places had 0mm / 0.00 inches in June 2018 like Showburyness in Kent. A proper warm-summer Med (Csb) year as well like in 2022. It remains to be seen what this summer ends up being like.

Anyway temperatures look crap for the next 7-10 days. Below average still. We will probably get some much needed rain, but I doubt it will amount to much down south. The first half of summer is going to really be a bit of a let down, especially in the temperature department. Really looking beyond the 10th for anything properly decent now.

[UK_Palms]

TEMPERATURES ARE AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE THIS SUMMER!!! 

19C / 66F with light, persistent rain here this afternoon. Feels more like early October than early July. So crap.

 

Up to the 8th, the CET is currently running -2.2C below average and colder than it was in May. That is absolutely diabolical. It is simply unprecedented too for the first 10 days of July to be cooler than  May.

 

It is actually the coolest opening 8 days to a July in 28 years, since 1996. This after the cool, lacklustre June too.

 

It is also the first time in 12 years, since 2012, that July has gone 3 consecutive days without registering 20C / 68F at Heathrow. Both 2012 and 2002 were very poor summers where that happened, and this summer isn't far behind those two now. Temperatures have been a massive issue this summer.

 

It looks like July 6th was the joint coolest July day in the CET series for 24 years since the year 2000. Just shocking.

 

As soon as summer arrived, temperatures went to crap and below average. June was the most anomalously cool month of the year so far and July is even more anomalously cool as it stands. Unfortunate, probably...

 

Look at these Maximum Temperature anomalies for the UK so far this July. Nowhere is above average and London area almost 4C below average. I don't ever remember seeing it that bad.

 

Sunshine hours also equally disgraceful. It is going to be the dullest first half of a summer in 30 years!!! 15% of July's total up to the 9th July in southern England, including London. It should be at least 30% by now.

 

 

Loads of thunderstorms in recent days across southern England, interrupting play at Wimbledon.

 

The absolute state of things today. Just wall to wall cloud. Unacceptable for mid-summer. Some parts of Cheshire have reached 23C / 74F, but even in London temps are struggling to reach 20C / 68F. So, so poor. I don't think anywhere in the UK has had 25C / 77F yet this July!

 

I don't really believe in chemtrails, but this seems to be a hot topic right now in the UK, especially with all the cloud cover this summer and this year in general. The past week or two especially doesn't help dispel these conspiracies. It has been extremely dull.

 

The forecast is marginally better moving forward, but not by much. Really lacklustre daytime maximums during the first half of July and the first half of summer. Struggling to get a single day of 25C / 77F this July so far...

[UK_Palms]

The first half of this summer has been truly horrendous. It is officially the 2nd coolest first half of summer since in 34 years, since 1990, with only 2012 being cooler, although that one was also much sunnier during the first half.

 

The first half of this July has been one of the cloudiest/dullest on record by far too and also one of hr coolest. These figures are for the UK as a whole and scaled up based on the current trajectory. 1991-2020 averages are used but the dataset goes back nearly 80 years.

Coldest first half of July in 24 years since the year 2000 going by the CET…

The July CET is sitting at 14.5C as of 15th July which is absolutely shocking! That is also only 0.4C warmer than the May CET!!! Insanity really in todays climate.

Average max temperatures for the first half of July are quite widely 2-3C below average. So really quite poor.

 

Sunshine levels horrendous for the first half of July. The lowest on record in some places. This chart only shows 23 places and 1 of them was cloudiest first half on record. About 20 locations recorded the dullest 1s - 15th July period on record.

 

Looking forward, the Met Office has 29C / 84F forecast for London on Friday. The second half of July and the second half of summer has one hell of a lot of lifting to do to make up for what we have had so far!

The UKV has 31-32C / 90F on the cards for Friday and Saturday. I am not convinced it will get this warm however. Either way temperatures are still terrible out west and up north. Finally some warmth again in London and eastern England.

 

[Chester B]

Looks like many of the heat loving plants are going to be in stasis this summer.  I can't imagine there will be any appreciable growth.

[UK_Palms]

On 7/17/2024 at 3:27 PM, Chester B said:

Looks like many of the heat loving plants are going to be in stasis this summer.  I can't imagine there will be any appreciable growth.

Hard to say how a lot of the tropicals will respond to this. It has been an overall cool summer so far and not very sunny, but places like the Scilly Isles and Cornwall don’t get proper heat anyway. The more exotic stuff growing in the far southwest of England is used to moderate temps. Although it has still been on the cool side even by their standards. However the mild winter and warm spring has probably given things a boost early on and promoted earlier growth, which may help mitigate some of the summer coolness this year.

Growth rates are clearly effected though with a lot of seasonal plants. I have been growing tomatoes and peppers for 7 years now and I have never seen the pepper plants lagging so far behind schedule as they are now. It is also the latest that I have ever harvested a cherry tomato (21st July) when the usual first harvest date is the last week of June or first week of July. So tomato’s and peppers are a good 2-3 weeks behind schedule this year due to the poor temps and sunshine levels. I have hardly any tomatoes ripening as well this year compared to previous years, but that could be due to a lack of bees and insects this year. It’s hard to say.

We had the warmest day of the year on Friday with temperatures reaching 33.1C / 92F in my location. Certainly much better, but still nothing notable by any means. Just a standard ‘warm/hot’ day in mid-summer for here.

 

St James Park in London recorded 31.9C / 90F, exactly two years on form the 40C+ in July 2022.

 

The July CET is still -0.5C below average against the old long term average (up to the 20th). It would look even worse against the newer 1990-2020 averages, but the CET uses the older 1950 - 1989 average. I wouldn’t be surprised if July ends up being average, but it will still compound a cool, boring, uneventful, lacklustre summer so far.

 

People are even moaning about the lack of storms here. There is just no convection here in the UK, unlike on the continent. The lightning tracker last week is quite telling, when you see how little storm activity actually makes it across the English Channel. That stretch of cool water just buffers it all. We end up with some light rain showers, whereas they get supercells on the continent with torrential rain, hail and lightning. In some ways I am glad we don’t get all that, but again it makes for boring uneventful weather. I certainly haven’t seen a single flash of lightning this summer and I haven’t heard a single rumble of thunder here either and we are almost 2/3 of the way through summer now! The French and Italian Med regions get more summer storms than we do here!

Anyway the forecast isn’t too bad, but again it just sums up this summer really. Boring, lacklustre, cloudy and overall on the cool side. Given that we are in ‘high summer’ now, the outlook isn’t great. It wouldn’t be bad in early-mid June, or late August, but not late July when we should be having the best weather!

 

The GFS model outlook isn’t great either moving forward. However the past few ECM runs have had southerly air plumes from Iberia bringing 20C+ 850 hPa isotherms. This would translate into 35C air temps in London on 30th or 31st of July, if it actually happened. I put the probability at 10% however with limited cross model support as it stands. One to watch though. I have always maintained that this would be a ‘back-loaded’ summer. Hopefully that ends up being the case.

[Foxpalms]

On 7/17/2024 at 3:27 PM, Chester B said:

Looks like many of the heat loving plants are going to be in stasis this summer.  I can't imagine there will be any appreciable growth.

Just got back from the Canary islands and my Jubaeopsis is growing. Has started to push out a new frond, which is it's first fully pinnate one. Sabal minor growing very slowly.

[UK_Palms]

On 7/22/2024 at 12:43 PM, UK_Palms said:

The GFS model outlook isn’t great either moving forward. However the past few ECM runs have had southerly air plumes from Iberia bringing 20C+ 850 hPa isotherms. This would translate into 35C air temps in London on 30th or 31st of July, if it actually happened. I put the probability at 10% however with limited cross model support as it stands. One to watch though. I have always maintained that this would be a ‘back-loaded’ summer. Hopefully that ends up being the case.

It looks like the ECM was correct a week ago with the predictions for a warm/hot spell to end the month, although the airmass isn’t quite as hot as what was being potentially signalled. Another spell of 31-32C / 90F however. Maybe 33-34C on Wednesday, potentially.

 

The July CET has recovered somewhat after the dreadful first half of July that we endured. The first half of summer in general was dreadful, up until mid-July. Now the July CET is back to average against the older averages (1961-1990) and will obviously finish above the long term average given the forecast. It will probably still be below the modern 1991-2020 average however, but the CET uses the 1961-1990 average.

Yet again a ton of CAPE and thunderstorm potential for the continent but pretty much nothing here. For whatever reason, there has been a massive decline in summer thunderstorms for the UK in recent decades. The air coming up from Spain seems to be much drier than it used to be and there is also less cold air coming from the arctic for the warm layers to interact with and thus generate storms. The instability just isn’t there. It seems the UK has seen the greatest reduction of summer thunderstorms in the world due to this.

Currently 29.1C / 84F here at 12:45pm…

[UK_Palms]

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