Worst start to a summer in 20 years for the UK

[UK_Palms]

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[SeanK]

29° must be a pretty warm summer afternoon in central Britain.

[UK_Palms]

The 2nd half of July ended up finishing fairly warm with temperatures well into the low 30's C for several days.

 

The July CET finished at 16.3C, which was 0.3C above the old 1961 - 1990 average. That is however -0.5C below the recent 1991 - 2020 averages, but ultimately July finished up quite average. A cool, below average first half, followed by a warm, above average second half largely cancelling out the cool first half. The August CET has also started off very warm.

 

The July average max still ended up finishing slightly below average however in most places.

 

We had 5 consecutive days of 28C / 82F or more in London and southeast England over the past week, which although being nothing to 'write home' about exactly, is also fairly decent in what has been a fairly lacklustre summer.

 

While I recorded a maximum of 33.1C / 92F here, the absolute max on a Met Office station is still only 32.0C / 90F at Heathrow and Kew Gardens in London, which is actually fairly poor for a late July 'heatwave', at least compared to recent years.

My nearest Met station is 12 miles away though, so not great coverage in my area at all, otherwise they would have recorded higher official temperatures 100%...

 

Some pretty mild/warm nights down south as well with some urban areas recording 'tropical nights'. It was 28.6C / 83F in my bedroom at midnight on two nights with all windows open, while the outdoor temperature was still 22-23C / 73F at midnight.

 

The warmer conditions and relatively dry summer so far has led to a number of wildfires in late July.

 

 

I have noticed it raining a lot in Paris when I have caught glimpses of the Wokelympics on the TV. Since the games began on July 26th, the Paris Montsouris station has recorded 45mm / 1.7 inches of rain in the past 8 days. In that same time St James Park in London has only registered 1.2mm / 0.04 inches. So Paris has had about 35 x as much rain as London since July 26th.

The 18z GFS run only has 2-3mm of rainfall in southeast England out to the 19th August. I would expect some fierce wildfires in Kent and Sussex later this month if this comes true...

 

Looking ahead temperature-wise, I suspect we haven't experienced the hottest weather this summer. In fact this summer may well have a sting in its tail yet. The highest hPa air mass so far is about 15-16C on two separate occasions, which led to 32-33C. However the GFS has been throwing out some 23-34C hPa air masses over the UK for mid-month, which would equate to about 37C / 100F in London probably.

 

[UK_Palms]

Just how below average were temperatures for the UK in both June and July combined? Well... very. The UK and Ireland was the most anomalously cool place in the whole of Europe as a matter of fact. Very unfortunate for us in northwest Europe in general.

Whereas the Greece, Turkey and Balkans area in southeast Europe was by far the most anonymously warm area. It was also anomalously warm in the Scandinavian arctic and western Russia. Well above average for the entire eastern half of Europe in general.

 

From my understanding, the UK was the most below average region in the entire northern hemisphere for July. Maybe the mid-west USA too perhaps. Both those areas the only properly below average areas. But on the flip side for us Brit's, I think the UK was also the most anomalously warm part of earth in July 2022. So sometimes it goes your way and other times it doesn't.

 

While being cool in general, it has not been a washout at all. Only a few days this summer with any proper 'wet' downpours, hence there being a fair few wildfires around, especially in July.

 

Looking forward, the potential heat episode that I mentioned in my previous post for the 17th August looks to have materialised but about 5 days earlier. 22-23C hPa airmass moving in from the south in the coming days. For context, the hPa airmass over Hawaii in summer is around 20C. So anything above 20C hPa 850 for the UK is pretty exceptional, especially during a 'poor' summer.

 

Met Office showing 29-30C / 84-86F for Sunday and then 34F / 94F for Monday in London.

 

34C / 94F in Cambridge as well...

 

The latest UKV has a 35C / 95F max in the Cambridge and Peterborough area of east central England on Monday.

 

The German ICON has 35C / 95F in the Cambridge area of east-central England as well. The near continent looking much hotter.

 

Whereas the latest AROME has a more isolated 35C / 95F reading peaking much further west out on the northwest Kent coast.

 

There is potential for quite a few thunderstorms in northwestern areas of England, Scotland and Ireland where the hot Mediterranean air in the south of England clashes with the cooler Atlantic air...

 

[Foxpalms]

Temp here is hovering at 20.5c due to the winds from the east (North sea area) The second those southern winds return I suspect the temps will start climbing again.  Only a 0.5c difference in 2 hours 45 mins (Since midnight) It looks like we will have to wait till around 11am before the southerly winds return sending up the hot air from France. Cooler air coming from the Azores will be mixing with that airmass hence why the temps in London will be quite a bit cooler than the 38c temps in Paris. Cloud cover and a foehn effect has allowed parts of Wales to not drop below 73f/22.7c.

 

 

[Foxpalms]

St Helier Jersey still 24.5c at 3am.

[Foxpalms]

1pm update.

Sticky.

[SeanK]

Hey mate, If you run into Kathryn Chalk from the Met Office, give her my number.

[UK_Palms]

Maximum 'official' temperature of 34.8C / 94.6F on Monday at Cambridge, which was the hottest day of the year. Cloud cover and strong winds preventing us from fully taking advantage of the hot 22-23C hPa 850 airmass overhead. Otherwise it would have been a few degrees warmer.

Heat indexes of 40-42C / 105 - 107F were observed however to the southeast of London. The two main hotspots being around Cambridge and east London, however there are no official Met stations in east London to pick up the peak maxima.

 

22.1C hPa 850 recorded at midnight at Camborne in Cornwall. Peak hPa's were around 23C in southeast England the next day.

 

The first half of August has been very dry in some places, particularly southeastern England. Manston on the fair east coast of Kent for instance has only registered 0.4mm / 0.01 inches and we are basically halfway through the month now.

 

The first two weeks of August may have been exceptionally dry, but the current 'dry' period that we are seeing has been going on properly since mid-July, so around 4 weeks now...

RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS (since 16th July)...

Brimfield (Environmental Agency)  - 1.4mm / 0.05 inches

Burnham (Environmental Agency) - 2.2mm / 0.08 inches

Widford (Environmental Agency) - 2.4mm / 0.09 inches

Cannock (Environmental Agency) - 2.4mm / 0.09 inches

Boscombe Down (Met Office) - 3.4mm / 0.13 inches

Luxborough London (Environmental Agency - 3.8mm / 0.14 inches

Herne Bay (Environmental Agency - 4.6mm / 0.18 inches

St James Park London (Met) - 5.8mm / 0.22 inches

Manston (Met) - 7.0mm / 0.27 inches

Heathrow London (Met) - 8.2mm / 0.32 inches

 

Consequently a number of fires have broke out in recent days. The worst being near Dublin in Ireland...

 

One of the fires in east London, of which Chadwell Heath was the largest...

[Chester B]

Do many homes have AC over there?  I have to imagine they don't.

[UK_Palms]

11 hours ago, Chester B said:

Do many homes have AC over there?  I have to imagine they don't.

Nah not at all. AC just isn't really a thing over here and it never has been. I would say less than 1% of homes in the UK and England have AC installed within the house. Maybe 5% have portable AC units. So barely anyone at all. More people are acquiring it in recent years, as the summers get warmer and warmer, but still not a huge uptick in demand/installations. It's just not really a thing here.

I think it is more of a cultural thing than anything. Like no matter how hot the summers can be (2022 was baking with 40C / 105F and countless 35C / 95F days) the us British folk are still kind of arrogant with a stiff upper lip and like "It's the UK, so we don't need AC. It doesn't get that warm here". When in reality, most places in southeast and central England do need AC nowadays even during an average summer. Or at least every other summer really.

I suspect people will come around to it in the coming years. Particularly if we have some more bad heat events. Even for this summer we are far from being out of the woods. The hottest weather last year came in mid-September for instance with a week straight of 32C / 90F temps. Although that was a fairly lacklustre summer. But 'summer' so to speak isn't finished until about late September nowadays. Yet another reason to get AC though I guess. Both hotter and longer summers.

Temperatures have dropped off massively for now but the dry warm-summer Med setup remains pretty entrenched/evident. 

 

GFS 12z showing only 1mm / 0.03 inches of rainfall for London between now and September...

[Chester B]

I had a few work trips to Ireland with some in summer. I don’t remember seeing AC.  One visit in July it was at least 30c one day which was a record. The rest of the trip the weather was pleasant to quite cool, especially at night.  
Now if you all got weather like I have,  AC isn’t optional.  Way more important than having a furnace. 

[Foxpalms]

On 8/16/2024 at 3:19 PM, Chester B said:

Do many homes have AC over there?  I have to imagine they don't.

Most of the UK no, central London yes. The reason why is due to the average highest temperature in the UK. Mainly the much warmer nights where the houses/shops don't have an opportunity to cool down. Therefore AC is pretty common here and I know in the outskirts of London, most people who I know that live there almost all all have multiple fans and portable AC units.

Pretty average mid-late August weather day in London today and tonight you can see the difference.

 

[Foxpalms]

On 8/17/2024 at 5:56 PM, Chester B said:

I had a few work trips to Ireland with some in summer. I don’t remember seeing AC.  One visit in July it was at least 30c one day which was a record. The rest of the trip the weather was pleasant to quite cool, especially at night.  
Now if you all got weather like I have,  AC isn’t optional.  Way more important than having a furnace. 

A comparison during a week from this summer.

Dublin Ireland city center 

Central London (Canada water) pws, which is even slightly cooler than here due to it being slightly further east.

Sleeping at night without AC in central London would be pretty uncomfortable. Though heating is definitely more important when jans average high is 9c with a low of 5c even if it's very rare for it to go below 0c.

[Chester B]

Big difference between Dublin and London for sure.  The warmest weather I experienced in Ireland was in Cork and the coldest up in Derry and the north coast , not technically Ireland. I was able to see almost all of Ireland and Northern Ireland due to sites I was working at and the total amount of time I spent there. 
 

Sadly my only experience in England was Heathrow. That is a big airport. 

[UK_Palms]

@Chester B On Wunderground it says Houston Hobby airport had 290mm / 11.4 inches of rain in July. Surely this can’t be correct? 90mm / 3.5 inches in June as well apparently. So 15 inches of rain this summer so far?

That is a hell of a lot of rain for summer. I wouldn’t be able to grow all my tomatoes and peppers that I do here under those conditions. The amount of blight and diseases would be off the scale with all that rainfall and humidity. So far I haven’t had any blight this season, likely due to the extended ‘dry’ spells.

The first half of our summer was very cool and cloudy, but thugs have recovered quite a lot during the second half. I am having lots of good tomatoes come in now. I will need to do a proper post about these soon in the tomato thread.

The tomatoes are coming in thick and fast here…

 

This is a volunteer plant that self-seeded and came up in May…

[Chester B]

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Wunderground it says Houston Hobby airport had 290mm / 11.4 inches of rain in July. Surely this can’t be correct? 90mm / 3.5 inches in June as well apparently. So 15 inches of rain this summer so far?

It's true.  The rain totals can be very different around the city, so some areas received a lot more than that.  I know during the hurricane my location I got 5-6" whereas others got more than a foot.  In general we've had about 4 feet this year so far.

You may find it interesting to know that there are two seasons for growing tomatoes here.  The first one starts around March and by July I guess the plants are used up and it's too hot to produce.  We're just entering our second growing season for tomatoes and peppers, all the stores have brought in starter plants.  I never did all that well with tomatoes in Oregon, it was difficult with no rain, low humidity and cool nights.  Before when I lived in Canada they did great with all the humidity we got, so I need to set aside a small vegetable patch somewhere here at my new place.  

You definitely seem to have the green thumb when it comes to tomatoes and peppers.  Your tomatoes look very tasty.

[Xenon]

On 8/19/2024 at 9:01 AM, Chester B said:

It's true.  The rain totals can be very different around the city, so some areas received a lot more than that.  I know during the hurricane my location I got 5-6" whereas others got more than a foot.  In general we've had about 4 feet this year so far.

You may find it interesting to know that there are two seasons for growing tomatoes here.  The first one starts around March and by July I guess the plants are used up and it's too hot to produce.  We're just entering our second growing season for tomatoes and peppers, all the stores have brought in starter plants.  I never did all that well with tomatoes in Oregon, it was difficult with no rain, low humidity and cool nights.  Before when I lived in Canada they did great with all the humidity we got, so I need to set aside a small vegetable patch somewhere here at my new place.  

You definitely seem to have the green thumb when it comes to tomatoes and peppers.  Your tomatoes look very tasty.

 

Tomato season starts in February, especially if you want any larger slicing/beefsteak types. The planting date for most of Houston is the second to third week of February and the big types are done by late June. The cherries might hang on until late July but even they struggle during the height of summer. Disease pressure also wrecks them in July even if they keep producing...bacterial spot, nematodes, Fusarium, septoria leaf spot you name it 😆.  @UK__Palmsyes the disease pressure and insect pressure and general stress pressure is on steroids 🤣. Then you plant again late August/early September for fall harvest. 

Peppers have two seasons as well, especially most of the Capsicum annum types and C. chinense. Most will shut down or slow down production in July and August.  The bulk of the harvest is during the shoulder seasons. The only reliable producers in mid-summer are various C. frutescens like 'Tabasco' and some of the small bird's eye Thai chilis. The longer lived C. frutescens and C. chinense will overwinter here during normal/mild winters and produce even more the second and third year. 

On the other hand, there are tons and tons of tropical vegetables from India, SE Asia, Africa, tropical America, etc that do great here and love our summers. People always complain that nothing grows here in the summer but they also stick to the boring old Western canon. 

[Xenon]

On 8/19/2024 at 6:46 AM, UK_Palms said:

@Chester B On Wunderground it says Houston Hobby airport had 290mm / 11.4 inches of rain in July. Surely this can’t be correct? 90mm / 3.5 inches in June as well apparently. So 15 inches of rain this summer so far?

Nice veggies

But have you seen this 5 day rainfall total? 🤣It's so funny when some tourists come here thinking it'll look like a Western movie when in reality it's one of the highest average rainfall areas in the continental U.S, green, and constantly flooding haha

[UK_Palms]

So there has been over 50 inches of rainfall already this year in the Houston area then. That would be extreme for even the northwest Scottish Hebrides over here.

Bearing in mind this has been a ‘wet’ year with the autumn - winter - spring period being the wettest 9 month period on record for many places.

However the annual rainfall total at the Met Office station in Manston, Kent is only on 360mm / 14.1 inches. The wettest month this year (February) only had 3.6 inches there lol. July had 2 days with heavy downpours. Only 5.4mm / 0.2 inches this August so far.

Charsfield also looking pretty dry this year at 366mm. July the driest month with 9.6mm / 0.37 inches. June also very dry too. August data not showing yet but still pretty dry. Shaping up to be very Med-like in terms of rainfall.

446mm / 17.5 inches of rain in central London this year. July 15th had a 20mm / 0.78 inch downpour in London hence the large rainfall spike for July. There were 2 days in July with heavy rainfall in what has otherwise been a ‘dry’ summer. August currently on 7.6mm / 0.29 inches.

Already 555mm / 21.8 inches at Middle Wallop. February and March both very, very wet there. June and August dry. The July rain spike is from those heavy showers on 2 separate days.

Boscombe Down on 571mm / 22.5 inches! March the wettest month with 136mm / 5.3 inches. August currently running at 4.2mm / 0.16 inches.

 

604mm / 23.7 inches at Hurn near Bournemouth. Less of a summer-Med aspect but still a noticeable drop off in summer rainfall in what has been a cool, unsettled summer.

 

One area I am thinking of moving to is Hayling Island near Portsmouth. It looks like they have had 0.51mm / 0.02 inches in June, a wetter 21.3mm / 0.83 inches in July and 7.89mm / 0.31 inches so far in August. So a summer total of 29.7mm / 1.16 inches of rainfall so far with 10 days left to go. That averages out at 0.38 inches a month this summer, as it stands.

 

All 3 months meeting the warm-summer Med (Csb) rainfall criteria there, although only one summer month needs 30mm or less going by Oregon State University. Or 40mm or less going by Koppen Climate Classification. However it is also much cooler there by the coast compared to my area or London however. But it is is much sunnier, much drier and also much milder winter nights by the coast. Only con is the summer temps.

Anyway, likely a bit of rain on Saturday (the first in weeks) and temperatures are also pretty poor again this week. Daytime max is about 2-3C below average for the rest of this week. Waiting for another heat injection later next week. It will come. 30’s C will return in the last few days of August and as we go into September.

[UK_Palms]

Had some rain on Saturday. The Met Office station at St James Park in London is up to 18.8mm / 0.74 inches, where it will likely finish now. It has not been a good summer this year, but it has been fairly dry. Just cloudy and not very warm.

 

Temperatures aren't anything to write home about and fairly average for late August / early September, but the outlook is looking very dry again.

 

The European high centred over southern England going into September bringing sunny skies and blocking precipitation.

 

Pretty much no rain at all for much of England out to the 10th September on the GFS 18z, which is as far out as it goes.

 

Italy and Greece for comparison...

 

And Spain...

[pillred]

On 8/17/2024 at 1:50 PM, UK_Palms said:

Nah not at all. AC just isn't really a thing over here and it never has been. I would say less than 1% of homes in the UK and England have AC installed within the house. Maybe 5% have portable AC units. So barely anyone at all. More people are acquiring it in recent years, as the summers get warmer and warmer, but still not a huge uptick in demand/installations. It's just not really a thing here.

I think it is more of a cultural thing than anything. Like no matter how hot the summers can be (2022 was baking with 40C / 105F and countless 35C / 95F days) the us British folk are still kind of arrogant with a stiff upper lip and like "It's the UK, so we don't need AC. It doesn't get that warm here". When in reality, most places in southeast and central England do need AC nowadays even during an average summer. Or at least every other summer really.

I suspect people will come around to it in the coming years. Particularly if we have some more bad heat events. Even for this summer we are far from being out of the woods. The hottest weather last year came in mid-September for instance with a week straight of 32C / 90F temps. Although that was a fairly lacklustre summer. But 'summer' so to speak isn't finished until about late September nowadays. Yet another reason to get AC though I guess. Both hotter and longer summers.

Temperatures have dropped off massively for now but the dry warm-summer Med setup remains pretty entrenched/evident. 

 

GFS 12z showing only 1mm / 0.03 inches of rainfall for London between now and September...

I remember when A/C started to arrive in cars in the UK most people chose a sunroof instead now I wouldn't be without it, I expect the same thing to happen in homes in the future.