Monsoon 2K24 ..Poker Hands, Content, and Hard Edges...

[Silas_Sancona]

After a sometimes wet / sometimes cool winter,  we arrive at what can be the best time of the year here in the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico as another Monsoon season begins.. The heat, Cicadas and Toads, Saguaro fruit and Mesquite Bean harvests, hot, lightning - filled nights / humid afternoons,  and lush tropical greenery which can spread far and wide once the rains arrive ..this is the season anyone who appreciates and respects the unsurpassed beauty of such things eagerly awaits every year..

While no two years will be exactly the same, we all understand not all will be perfect.   Some will bestow upon the viewer the greatest gifts the gateway to the tropics has to offer,  while others leave us hot, thirsty, and a bit dusty..  That's life..  ...and what makes life interesting.. There is no perfect world or outcome..

While it is hot, n' quiet at the moment both across the state, and majority of the surrounding region, this year may start off a bit different compared to last year.. Already is really. 

Still, as is the case most years, where we end up when the season packs up, waves us a " goodbye-for-now ",  and heads south for winter vacation is a bit of a question..  Will it be as desperately dry as last year,  ...or will this year be better ...even if it  isn't  WET?     We'll see what happens.

Regardless, complaining about it isn't allowed.. If you've done your homework, real  homework ( info from places like Weather Channel / Accueather / Fox Weather / local media info don't count as homework ),  you should already be well aware that summer in the subtropics, deserts esp.. are typically hot. 

Rain?  ..can be fickle..

Dust?  ...what happens when you strip away the desert's natural dust mitigation.. 

Bugs  ...n' other critters that come out to enjoy the bounty the rains can bring?  ..wouldn't you if you'd been cooped up in a hole until hearing relief ?   Just the way it is and what makes living in this region of the global neighborhood absolutely amazing..

Hard edges, AKA places like the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico, where life learned to endure both really good and really tough times = some of the greatest diversity of life on the planet,  Period...  The climate here is honest, sometimes brutally,  and always doing it's own thing / leaving everyone guessing  ...A Cinema,  where you never know what movie is being played..

As you noticed, starting this year, i will be including our neighbors to our south in the yearly Monsoon season thoughts.. Why? ..Pretty simple, what happens down the road on their side of the regional neighborhood, can influence what happens here ..and vice versa..   Neither place are an island spread half a world apart from one another, despite the odd view of a few.




Anyway, lets peer out the window to what signs are out there / where we might be headed........

First,  As the opening day of the season proceeds, pretty quiet across the region on satellite... We'll see if any storms can get going across central and S. Mexico later..  Note too the evolving cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Campeche.. We'll see what it decides to do over the coming days, but,  it could really help kick things into gear across the entire region if it decides to..

There's also another cluster of activity off far S. Mexico ( Not picked up on this regional- level Sat. view ) that may or may not do much..




....We'll dive further into things,  later today...   Tis' the Season




 

[Silas_Sancona]

...So ya' wanna play some Poker today,   ayh?'..  Full house?, two of a kind? ..a straight flush.. or somehow ya' got all the Aces..  Who has the winning hand, and whose poker face is awfully telling..




Is the name of the game as we take a look at what may  ..or may not...  occur this year..

Starting things off, if you've already bought what is being implied from various surface information only media sources, you've already been delt a bad hand and might just consider sitting out this hand..

Then again, perhaps that bad looking poker face others might see hides the winning ticket..

If one were to believe the basic weather guy forecasts, esp. here,  you might already be feeling doom and gloom regarding the next few months..

For example,  a certain Facebook weather guy who was right once about a wet year has already predicted " This will be the driest year for Phoenix / Arizona  "

..While a few isolated spots did " ok " last year,  the thought of this year being worse is questionable, at best,  since last year was about as dry as is possible  w/ just .15" falling at Sky Harbour, and the valley wide average being well in the bottom of the trash can..  I don't even think i crossed the 1.2 inch mark and i believe the monsoon season normal here in Chandler is around 4"..

Gonna be very hard to beat that outcome..  Essentially, we'd have to get nothing ..Nada, Zip, Zilch  rainfall now - the end of September to beat last year..  Yea that's possible, ..but i highly doubt it..

A look at Accuweather's thoughts thru the start of September also would suggest doom n' gloom..  Checking it last night, wasn't a drop of rain suggested on it until ..Mid September...

Obviously, some of the thoughts from various Wx models look a bit dismal as well..  Then again...

It's easy, ..but don't be duped.. To win, one must  dive into the details and see whose got game, let alone a good game face..





Game on...


As just mentioned, whether they are from the CPC monthlies, NMME model suite, or ECMWF Weeklys / Monthlies it is pretty obvious  the current thoughts for this year do lean dry.  Here's the trouble with that..

  While extended range Wx modeling is a decent tool for looking at what might occur / potential trends per season, etc,  it is well known that the forecast skill, of all of them,  isn't all that great,  esp. for this part of the world at this time of year where weather model scaling isn't fine tuned enough yet to pick up on all the subtle micro -level things that can determine an outcome for the Monsoon..

One only has to look back to the summer of 2021, and winter of 22-23 to see how badly the longer range models' aim was.. 2021 was feared to be a 3rd year of super dry, but ended up epic across most of the state / region..

Winter 22-23 also was forecast to be dry, but ended up being WETTER than this past winter, which occurred at the peak of this warm ENSO cycle..

All that said, sometimes, they are dead right..  Imo, but they did " ok "  this past winter..

While i do think the outcome this year won't be wet ..as in 2021 wet,  i don't think it will be horrible / a 2020 / 2023 repeat either..  Here's what i'm holding, as far as my poker hand this year...



** Current SSTs / SST Anomalies from SOTO ( State of the Ocean )  Of note is that we're already in range temp wise for getting the Monsoon underway.. 26C kicks over the engine, 29C and above, esp in the N. end of the Gulf of CA, is typically followed by rainfall expanding into AZ.. Not quite there just yet, but not far behind either..

In Mexico, yes, the anomalies off S.W. Mexico are a bit below what they should be atm ..but i think that will change a bit.  Something else however may play a bigger part in getting better rains going down there this year..






Anomaly -wise, note that the N. and Central Gulf are already warmer than the southern end..  This is another for getting the monsoon going..  Cooler waters at the mouth of the Gulf of CA = higher pressure there.  Warmer waters in the northern end = lower pressure there ..that combines w/ the typical thermal low that forms over the CA / NV / AZ border each summer to draw wind north, up the gulf ..AKA " Gulf Surges.. More of those / stronger the gradient = more moisture fed into AZ / overall region...

While temps /  + / - anomalies do change a bit day to day, the Gulf will only continue to warm thru early October..

If we can kick the last hazy vestiges of post El Nino Hangover outta the Pac. N.W. over the next couple weeks, the Gulf will only warm faster as the Subtropical / 4 Corners high is able to head north and drop anchor for the summer over it's preferred region of the U.S just north of AZ/ N.M. ..



** Hanging right on dead Neutral ..if not just below that atm, as far as ENSO is concerned, ..and headed into La Nina

..A much better place to be if we want a decent summer.  That said,  you can see on the 2nd graph how this summer could go either way..  though the " dry " lean isn't quite as bad as it was last summer when we were above +1C

This may be why some forecasters had mentioned that the dry outcome suggested by some seasonal modeling wasn't all that confident in such an outcome ...ACE







** Perhaps another high card in my hand this year = overwhelming predictions for an active / very active Hurricane season in the Atlantic/ Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean..

While the Pacific might take a nap this summer, we might not need too much influence from it this year.  Assuming the predictions  hinting at the suggested active outcome, an active atlantic hurricane season could = robust easterly wave activity that brings plentiful moisture to -at least- east central and Southern Mexico ..and into AZ   ..if the 4 corners high sets up correctly...

Since we're headed into La Nina territory, that only ups the odds for that active outcome to our east..

As for the Pacific, while a nap might be in store, i don't think it will be absolutely dead either.. 2021 wasn't dead, but wasn't super- active either. Still ended up being wet across AZ and many nearby areas..




While a Neg. PDO would suggest a wetter lean, that isn't always the case..  Last month's reading dropped to -2.97. That said, it was in similar territory last year around the same time..  In 2021, it was hanging between -1.91 and -0.64 thru the summer before bottoming out at -3.13 that October.

While i wasn't able to grab it before it got lost among over 1,000 other comments, a poster in the last  Weather West blog post posted something related to how when the PDO is as low as it reached last month, that can signal a wetter signal for the Monsoon / drier signal for the plains..  We'll see...

What i'm really keeping an eye on is something that was noted in the following summary regarding 2021's wet summer.. the AO ( Arctic Oscillation ) While this teleconnection was thought to be of little influence upon summer weather across the U.S. in  '21, some forecasters noticed that it's strongly positive phase thru that summer may have helped encourage the wet outcome here..

Here's where it stands right now  ..Where could it go??  Positive would be ideal since that position would encourage establishment the 4 corners high in it's ideal summer position.. 

Remember, if you're north of it  ..or it sits on top of you = not good for rain..  Ideal position = center of the high north of the Rim / N. N.M so that east and southeasterly flow across 90% of AZ / rest of the southwest ..and Mexico.. is established. That is what brings in moisture.



Here's the 2021 Monsoon season summary, including the mention about the potential good influence from the AO at that time..  Could it be???

https://www.weather.gov/psr/2021MonsoonReview


..really, the only real " bad " card on the table atm seems to be the Post El Nino Hangover which, for the moment continues to encourage a N. Pac. jet stream that is still a touch more active right now than it should be, which is one reason the subtropical high keeps getting knocked around as it tries to build north out of Mexico ..which should be seeing a bigger uptick in their rainy season by now..

That said, it's hazy and annoying influence finally seems to be waning.. and may be about to end completely shortly..

Already much warmer this year than we were at the same time last year..


While most of the longer range " seasonal " model thoughts may lean dry / a late start to Monsoon season, more recent thoughts from models like the CFS weekly, more runs than not from various models like the GFS,  GEFS,  GEPS, and  ECMWF AI FS seem to be hinting that the Monsoon may be about to arrive ..officially..

That said, no WX model is totally trustworthy,  so takeany encouraging ..or discouraging... thoughts  them with a bowl full of Salt..  Use the other cards in the deck to determine whether or not you add a few chips to the pile,   ..or hold..



That said, perhaps the hint of an early onset may be emerging..

Is even showing up in the latest CPC 10, 14, and 3 week outlooks.. Has been for a few days now.  We'll see if it holds...








And all the current 10 day outlooks from WX underground from here down to Mazatlan may be ..














Even if " good " rains, that reach beyond the mountains are is still a couple weeks out,  the " Old definition " of Monsoon Onset  may arrive early,    .....if the forecasts hold.

While the NOAA's definition of the North American Monsoon Season was created to remedy some issues relying on the old definition brought up,  the old definition of  " 3 days in a row of dew points at / above 54 -55deg,  PWats ( Precip. Water values ) at / above 1" " ..here in AZ at least,  is a good rule of thumb in defining when Monsoon Season onset begins.

Using the chart below, you can see that if we see 3 days of 55deg dew points in a row, before July, that would = an early start.  While that doesn't always end in a wet outcome,  the lean toward ...at least average.. is encouraged by an early start.    We'll see.




Obviously, further south in Mexico, the " Onset date " is earlier than up here, on the edge of the Monsoonal set up.  While the chart above denotes when the Monsoon started in Tucson each year, Phoenix would be on about the same schedule ..say a day or two earlier / later.



Overall, i think this is a good hand, even if not the best.  I look at the season ahead like this: 

Last year, i don't think i got over an inch of rain here at the house.. Phoenix, ...majority of town at least... didn't see much either.  Same w/ Tucson, ..though they were closer to average.

If Phoenix sees ..even an inch / 1.5 - 1.9" of rain this year, vs. the 2.43" normal  i see 1.5 to 2.5" compared to the 4" normal**,  and Tucson hovers right around ..or slightly above... average ( 5.69" )  ..That is good.   I will certainly be content  / not find anything to complain about  -at -all.    ..Unless there is absolutely no Lightning..  then i might have to have a sit down w/ the supervisor, lol.

Since i can't get down south to the research areas this year,  i don't want a super wet year anyway..   A year that is good enough to let everything bounce back a bit from last year, ..ahead of maybe a better year,  next year,  is perfect..  Same idea with a good year further south in Mexico, where many areas definitely need  RAIN,   more so than we do at this point right now..

Down there, as mentioned, i think the wetter outcomes will be for areas along the east and southern parts of the country where easterly wave activity crosses the continent  vs. more northerly / N.W' rly areas of the country.  We'll see though, Hopefully everyone gets enough to start turning things around..


Depending on how the 4 corners high decides to set up as we head into / thru July and August,  California may get little bits and pieces of this year's Monsoon.    Overall however, this year may not offer up the mainly welcomed wet surprises a few recent years have..

  As Daniel Swain mentioned in his last blog post on Wx West, CA may stay a tad mild early on before turning hotter mid to late summer into the upcoming Fall  so, we'll see..



As mentioned earlier,  the North American Monsoon is a sometimes fickle being who does it's own thing  ..sometimes playing by the rules, other times creating it's own. That's what makes it interesting, and keeps so many coming back for each and every year.. 

Hopefully,  this year won't mirror last years very fickle outcome,  here  ...or beyond the immediate neighborhood..

Regardless,  we get  ...what we get..    Can't ( ...and won't.. ) win them all so complaining about what you end up with ain't going to do much to change the outcome.  Be Content with getting ..anything...  Want it constantly wet, all summer?  move somewhere where that happens.

That said, a repeat of 1984, 1955, '64, or 2021  ..or something wetter than any of those years  ..would definitely be nice.  

It will happen,  ...just maybe not this year.. 


Just please, lets not repeat last year, or '19 / '20, ...That's all i ask..





Tomorrow,  for anyone interested in taking a peek,  an interesting dive into what the future may hold for the Monsoon in a warmer world..  Could a warmer world = a stronger ..and expanded...  Monsoon?  ..the years that aren't drier at least??  

We'll take a dive into that..



...For now,  Enjoy all the twists and turns that lie within the season ahead...  Let us begin the season of sweaty heat, Cicadas buzzing at all hours,  crazy lightning,  and dust filled wind   ..and the wild sunsets / rises before and after the storms roll on by..


A vision of the season via some music..  Great while sitting outside at 12am awaiting the next bolt w/ the camera too   
 

First heard on an Ambient music compilation i acquired in 1995 while watching some Monsoon moisture make an appearance in San Jose ( CA ) around the same time that summer. 

Interestingly, '95 was a wet year for both Tucson and Phoenix..