Southern Hemisphere Growing Season 24/25

[Tyrone]

We’ve had a bit of steady rain overnight and yesterday. Water is running into the tank and everything is nice and wet. It’s refreshing the garden. Tomorrow we are meant to hit 34C before possibly some thunderstorms hit with hopefully more rain. 

[tropicbreeze]

February saw an improvement in the rainfall situation with 109% of average for the month. However, the running total for the wet season is about 90%. The end of February dried out, compliments of cyclones off the west and east coasts of Australia sucking away the moisture and the MJO moving into the central Pacific Ocean. The first  week of March is expected to be relatively dry as well. This is pushing the temperatures up a bit, some of the areas further from the coast getting up to 41. The sun passed overhead and now is to our north, not that it's very noticeable yet, but I take it as a sign that the dry season is starting to head back. Although, technically speaking, we still have another two months of wet season left.

UV rating up to 14.
Feb Av. Min. 24.5
Feb Av. Max. 33.6
Feb Rainfall 346.0 (Av. 318.4)

 

[Tyrone]

Well we are now in autumn but in reality summer continues. Had some mid twenties the last couple of days but we are going for 32C today, 31C tomorrow, then mid to high thirties at the end of the week. Really dry too. No rain in sight. 

[tim_brissy_13]

Nice palm growing temperatures in Melbourne this week. March is probably the sweet spot for us typically, but this week is definitely above average. Would love a bit more rain but can’t complain with all the chaos up north of us. 
 

[cbmnz]

Highs of 29.3,  28.6 and 29.0 to start the month with plenty of sun. The cyclone heading for Qld is going to dredge up air from the Southern ocean which means got two chilly nights coming up mid week, which keep getting revised down as they get closer. At least this time of the year that still does not mean a freeze, so will do no harm. Nothing to complain about compared to areas that might be hit by  a cyclone taking a rare path over  a heavily populated area.

More of a problem is, other than a little bit tomorrow the hadley cell is still parked and no sign of it moving, it could persist all March.

Right now the local pastures are all just dry straw, not a blade of green grass to be seen, but trees and shrubs are still doing fine. When native trees and shrubs start wilting and a few dying as happened in 2013 and 2020, you know it's getting bad. I do fear will be seeing that again by the end of this month.

[Tyrone]

  On 3/3/2025 at 2:24 AM, tim_brissy_13 said:

Nice palm growing temperatures in Melbourne this week. March is probably the sweet spot for us typically, but this week is definitely above average. Would love a bit more rain but can’t complain with all the chaos up north of us. 
 

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That looks almost like a carbon copy of my forecast here. Going for a cool 22C today and had a mm of rain early this morning.. Not much if any rain on the horizon either. It’s all gone to qld. Will be watching that cyclone closely. Hopefully it fizzles out a bit before it crosses the coast or just goes out to sea. 

[Tyrone]

  On 3/3/2025 at 9:29 AM, cbmnz said:

Highs of 29.3,  28.6 and 29.0 to start the month with plenty of sun. The cyclone heading for Qld is going to dredge up air from the Southern ocean which means got two chilly nights coming up mid week, which keep getting revised down as they get closer. At least this time of the year that still does not mean a freeze, so will do no harm. Nothing to complain about compared to areas that might be hit by  a cyclone taking a rare path over  a heavily populated area.

More of a problem is, other than a little bit tomorrow the hadley cell is still parked and no sign of it moving, it could persist all March.

Right now the local pastures are all just dry straw, not a blade of green grass to be seen, but trees and shrubs are still doing fine. When native trees and shrubs start wilting and a few dying as happened in 2013 and 2020, you know it's getting bad. I do fear will be seeing that again by the end of this month.

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Yes, the fields sound similar to here. My paddock still has green in it, but if we don’t get some rain soon even the native vegetation will begin to suffer. My Eucalypts have been throwing branches off everywhere. Combined with the strong winds we’ve had too, I seem to be in constant clean up mode. My firewood pile is getting bigger. A bonus for winter. 

[Tyrone]

Had nearly 8mm of rain overnight. Nice to hear water running into the tank. Thank goodness. 

[Jonathan]

Summer clinging on down here, has been around 30 for the last three days,  cooling towards the end of the week...rain needed!

[cbmnz]

Seems to be a theme for all of us South of about 33. The high pressure zone/Hadley cell has been extremely stable since the start of the year, and no ex cyclones or sub-tropical lows have made a dent in it.

According the official index, we are just about to cross from Extremely dry to Meteorological drought.  It's still not as bad as 2013, 2014 and 2020 yet, but heading that way.  The models as far as they run just keep showing more of the same.

I am going to have to start selectively deep watering some of my palms and citrus soon which rarely have needed to do over the years.

 

 

 

[Tyrone]

Well yesterday morning our lake system was looking the lowest I’ve ever seen them without me pumping a drop out of them. I had virtually drained one right down in 2018 but that was a dry year and I didn’t have a bore then.

Thunderstorms were forecast for yesterday afternoon and evening to drop around 7mm of rain maximum on the property. I thought it would be nice but doubted it would eventuate to much. Windy.com showed the main heavy bits circulating around the area then off into the southern ocean. 
 

Well, no model predicted what was coming. Our neighbours rain gauge recorded 300mm of rain.!!!  A nearby weatherzone station recorded fall rates as high as 200mm an hour!!!!

My neighbour upstream from my property enlarged his main dam and increased the height of the outflow. I thought we would not see much water in our property this winter. Well everything is drenched and totally full. Pictures to follow. 

[Tyrone]

IMG_2992.movFetching info...  

 

[Tyrone]

[cbmnz]

  On 3/13/2025 at 11:30 PM, Tyrone said:

Well yesterday morning our lake system was looking the lowest I’ve ever seen them without me pumping a drop out of them. I had virtually drained one right down in 2018 but that was a dry year and I didn’t have a bore then.

Thunderstorms were forecast for yesterday afternoon and evening to drop around 7mm of rain maximum on the property. I thought it would be nice but doubted it would eventuate to much. Windy.com showed the main heavy bits circulating around the area then off into the southern ocean. 
 

Well, no model predicted what was coming. Our neighbours rain gauge recorded 300mm of rain.!!!  A nearby weatherzone station recorded fall rates as high as 200mm an hour!!!!

My neighbour upstream from my property enlarged his main dam and increased the height of the outflow. I thought we would not see much water in our property this winter. Well everything is drenched and totally full. Pictures to follow. 

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Insane. 300mm in a few hours in an urban area would be heavily damaging.

[Tyrone]

  On 3/14/2025 at 8:05 PM, cbmnz said:

Insane. 300mm in a few hours in an urban area would be heavily damaging.

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Yes. A very large percentage of town had some sort of water getting in. A friends place had their cavity in the walls fill up when the eaves overflowed. The street drainage is not designed for anything more than a one in five year storm. Officially the rainfall figure was 126.4mm which was the highest daily rainfall on record for Albany. Rainfall varied greatly over small distances. Some were in the 80mm zone, many were in the high hundreds and I’m still in almost disbelief with our neighbours rain gauge reading 300mm. We must have been stuck under a supercell for a good while. 

[cbmnz]

  On 3/14/2025 at 11:58 PM, Tyrone said:

Yes. A very large percentage of town had some sort of water getting in. A friends place had their cavity in the walls fill up when the eaves overflowed. The street drainage is not designed for anything more than a one in five year storm. Officially the rainfall figure was 126.4mm which was the highest daily rainfall on record for Albany. Rainfall varied greatly over small distances. Some were in the 80mm zone, many were in the high hundreds and I’m still in almost disbelief with our neighbours rain gauge reading 300mm. We must have been stuck under a supercell for a good while. 

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Sorry for them. That's almost worse than a few cm of water entering the house as at least then it is confined to a zone  near the floor and the "flood cut" method can be used.

By contrast, this is what local farmers are dealing with. Not every paddock looks as bad as this, some lower lying ones that have not been grazed for a long time have some green in them. However a good 50% or more do look like this, even on the flats.

[Tyrone]

  On 3/15/2025 at 7:08 AM, cbmnz said:

Sorry for them. That's almost worse than a few cm of water entering the house as at least then it is confined to a zone  near the floor and the "flood cut" method can be used.

By contrast, this is what local farmers are dealing with. Not every paddock looks as bad as this, some lower lying ones that have not been grazed for a long time have some green in them. However a good 50% or more do look like this, even on the flats.

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That looks like southern WA paddocks at the moment. Surprised to see this in NZ

[cbmnz]

Some breach of the drought the last 3 days, 5mm, then 5mm, then 18mm on Wednesday.

[Tyrone]

Summer keeps on rolling. Never seen consecutive 37C days forecast ever especially in late March. With all the water in the soil, everything is going crazy.

[UK_Palms]

  On 3/22/2025 at 12:52 AM, Tyrone said:

Summer keeps on rolling. Never seen consecutive 37C days forecast ever especially in late March. With all the water in the soil, everything is going crazy.

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Any idea what the hPa 850 temps are over Albany for the 37C days?

[Tyrone]

  On 3/25/2025 at 11:57 PM, UK_Palms said:

Any idea what the hPa 850 temps are over Albany for the 37C days?

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That forecast never eventuated. Today has been downgraded to 33C. Humidity has been sky high though. The last few days dewpoints were in the 20-22C zone with temps in the mid to high 20s. Great for growing palms. 
 

To be honest I’ve never looked at 850hPa temps and I’m not sure how they would even record them. Do they send a ballon up to capture that?

[cbmnz]

Spotted this in a real estate listing photo just across town, wondering if this is "only" an Archontophoenix or is a mature Howea?

Have not tried a Howea yet, consider it likely a bridge too far here.  On second look think it is an Archontophoenix but density and droopiness of fronds does make it look a bit Howea like in this view..

 

 

[Tyrone]

  On 3/27/2025 at 9:39 AM, cbmnz said:

Spotted this in a real estate listing photo just across town, wondering if this is "only" an Archontophoenix or is a mature Howea?

Have not tried a Howea yet, consider it likely a bridge too far here.  On second look think it is an Archontophoenix but density and droopiness of fronds does make it look a bit Howea like in this view..

 

 

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I think it’s a happy Bangalow. 
 

It only made 29C today with almost no wind which is unusual and dewpoints exceeding 22C. Really good growing weather. 

[Tyrone]

Woke up to 100%rh and 16C this morning. Real rainforest under the tree canopy. The trees collect the mist and form large drops which water everything underneath. You can see things growing when it’s like this. Going for a humid 27C today. Perfect growing weather. 

[cbmnz]

  On 3/26/2025 at 10:41 PM, Tyrone said:

That forecast never eventuated. Today has been downgraded to 33C. Humidity has been sky high though. The last few days dewpoints were in the 20-22C zone with temps in the mid to high 20s. Great for growing palms. 
 

To be honest I’ve never looked at 850hPa temps and I’m not sure how they would even record them. Do they send a ballon up to capture that?

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Yes, many are sent up every day around the globe,  to tune global weather models. 

The 850hPa temps are worth looking at.  General rule of 850hPa  temp + 15C is the maximum possible surface temp holds fairly well, although I have seen 17C.

Sometimes in Winter, clear skies and light winds doesn't produce as cold a night as expected, it can be because the 850 temps are warm.

 

[Tyrone]

  On 3/28/2025 at 8:57 AM, cbmnz said:

Yes, many are sent up every day around the globe,  to tune global weather models. 

The 850hPa temps are worth looking at.  General rule of 850hPa  temp + 15C is the maximum possible surface temp holds fairly well, although I have seen 17C.

Sometimes in Winter, clear skies and light winds doesn't produce as cold a night as expected, it can be because the 850 temps are warm.

 

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Interesting. The Albany BOM site is no longer a manned site. I don’t think they send up balloons any more. The closest BOM site that would though is Perth so not really of any use down here. 
 

On another note I’m surprised at how many 20C plus mins we’ve had this year. For nearly 10 years we never got over 19.8C but this year we’ve had quite a few above 20C. 20.8C this morning and nearly April too. 

[tropicbreeze]

March started off with a week of hot dry weather. Looked as though the wet season had ended, although RH stayed high. It triggered an early flowering and seeding of grasses. Cane Toads thought is was the end of the wet and started their mating rituals. And of course the weeds rocketed off as the ground was still wet. This change of seasonal pattern brought about quite a few changes in wildlife responses and behaviour. It was only the higher rainfall late in the month that brought our March total up to 85.4% of average. The last day of March, for the whole day RH was 97+% and dew points were 25 to 27.

UV rating up to 13.
Mar Av. Min. 24.6
Mar Av. Max. 34.2
Mar Rainfall 246.8 (Av. 288.8)

April is a much lower rainfall month on average but we're off to a very good start, time will tell. Some years ago now TC Monica came through late in April and we got over 600mm rain, showing that averages are handy figures to know but are not a guarantee. The Bureau's Tropical Climate Update forecasts the monsoon to dissipate after 5th April. The MJO is expected to weaken and move further out into the Pacific. However, the models are showing a tropical low forming above Darwin in a couple of weeks, which is a very long time in forecasting. Mind you, the Bureau only yesterday was forcasting 0 - 25mm rain for us today, but we got 82.8mm. "April showers bring the flowers that bloom in May"

 

[Tyrone]

Got 20mm of rain yesterday. Everything is soaked through. It’s not normal here to have the lakes, dams and water tanks full, and the fields green with growth at the beginning of April with the wet season just about to start. 

[Jonathan]

And so it begins...15 tomorrow but then a recovery.

Hanging on by the skin of our teeth! 

[Tyrone]

  On 4/6/2025 at 8:59 AM, Jonathan said:

And so it begins...15 tomorrow but then a recovery.

Hanging on by the skin of our teeth! 

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Yeah, winter is only weeks away now. 
 

So far we’ve been stuck in warmer weather especially at night. 19C min this morning and going for a humid 27C. We were actually warmer than Perth this morning. Nothing forecast below 20C for the foreseeable future but it will happen. 

[Tyrone]

On Monday night we got a kicker thunderstorm and another 17mm in around an hour. The BOM was saying that April would be dry and below average rain but not so. We’ve got rain on almost every day for at least the next week, and in the last month have seen approx 170mm of rain, which would be a wet winter period for us. Only it’s not winter and compared to winter it’s still warm here. 27C on Friday. 

[Jonathan]

  On 4/8/2025 at 10:56 PM, Tyrone said:

On Monday night we got a kicker thunderstorm and another 17mm in around an hour. The BOM was saying that April would be dry and below average rain but not so. We’ve got rain on almost every day for at least the next week, and in the last month have seen approx 170mm of rain, which would be a wet winter period for us. Only it’s not winter and compared to winter it’s still warm here. 27C on Friday. 

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Luxury! We've had 40mm for the year to date...soooo dry here now. Getting water delivered for the garden tanks today for the first time in probably 10 years. Big old Eucalyptus viminalis trees dying like flies this summer after being previously drought stressed the year before. Not good at all.

On the other hand, the temps remain pretty nice...can't have everything I guess!

 

[Tyrone]

  On 4/9/2025 at 9:15 PM, Jonathan said:

Luxury! We've had 40mm for the year to date...soooo dry here now. Getting water delivered for the garden tanks today for the first time in probably 10 years. Big old Eucalyptus viminalis trees dying like flies this summer after being previously drought stressed the year before. Not good at all.

On the other hand, the temps remain pretty nice...can't have everything I guess!

 

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I hope you get some rain soon. It shouldn’t be too far away now. 

[tim_brissy_13]

This is madness. Can’t ever remember seeing these temps in Melb in mid April. Typically we’ve just about dropped off by now and by the time May comes, it’s pretty gloomy and cool consistently. For reference, average maximum in April is about 20C, dropping to 17C in May. 
 

[Tyrone]

Friday we had a top of 30C with dewpoints peaking at just over 22C. Very hot and sticky for 35S in mid April. Night mins have been mid to high double digits and RH in the 90% zone. Yesterday and today and probably the entire week are what I call Mt Gower weather. We are stuck in the clouds with almost constant drizzle. Today was a min of 17.4C and a max of 18.6C with 96% RH and drizzling. We won’t see a peak of the sun for about 7 days now. Nothing cold forecast, nothing warm either. Almost no difference between night and day and drizzle and rain not far away. My Rhopies, Hedyscepe, Howeas etc are just going to lap it up. 

[PalmCode]

Could a few days of wet and windy weather coming down around Wednesday .. . My Chambeyronia opened its first new leaf since I've had it a few months now. Not as awesome red as yours Tyrone, but it's growing good so far.

[Tyrone]

Had another 30mm of rain on Monday. A tree on my boundary that was on a lean decided to slip over onto my Howea area. The neighbours kids keep driving the Ute on their side around and around and damaged the roots created a huge mud puddle and it couldn’t take it any more. So I’m slowly cutting the tree up and releasing what’s underneath. No real damage as it’s slowly gone over and is stuck on a branch at 45 degrees however with it gone my Howeas have lost their canopy which will be an issue come summer. 
The temp is finally cooling off here though. A minimum of 8.4C, forecast was for 12C min. Going for a top of 23C. Days are getting short now. 

[cbmnz]

Finally getting the effects of an ex TC in the next few days after none such all Summer. Rain will be useful. Surprised how much the wind is up already, hope does not mean it will be worst than forecast.

[Tyrone]

  11 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Finally getting the effects of an ex TC in the next few days after none such all Summer. Rain will be useful. Surprised how much the wind is up already, hope does not mean it will be worst than forecast.

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Yeah I’ve noticed that low in the Tasman sea. Hopefully it brings you helpful rain and nothing else. It’s been a weird year this year.