Hurricane Helene

[metalfan]

Darn it here we go again. The storm that promises to become Hurricane Helene has me in its potential path. We just sent Debbie away...I guess I will be moving plants, patio furniture and whatever else today

[PalmsInBaltimore]

Stay safe! 

[flplantguy]

Same here, surge forecast is about 100 yards away a foot to three feet above ground, with my home just out of it. Winds mean moving a lot of stuff anyway and doing windows tonight or tomorrow.  Good luck!  This is getting old thats for sure.

[Looking Glass]

Tis the season, and part of the natural annual weather pattern in Florida.  Be ready if it’s a few days out, and you are just outside of the cone, but in the direction the path has been shifting over the past couple of days.  Especially if you are on the storm surge side.   Cones change as it gets closer and closer.   Being in the cone early on, often means not in the cone when it actually hits days later.  

This one is moving fast, which can be a good thing, but there’s not as much prep time for changes.   

[PalmatierMeg]

Shades of Ian! With 61 out of 67 counties under emergency declaration, not many places in FL likely to be unaffected. Ft. Myers Beach may be hammered by storm surge all over again. Hopefully no one runs toward the coast instead of away.

We are outside the storm surge range but expect wind and rain. So later today or tomorrow morning we will be closing the storm shutters Sure wish we had Sabal Row back. Sure wish all the snowbirds I've seen on the roads this Sept. had delayed their onslaught another month. They know little or nothing about hurricanes and will make things difficult for year-round residents. If things go as weather wizards predict likely much of FL will be wrecked for winter fun & games.

[metalfan]

Believe it or not, it's already noticeably breezy here. I just moved all my stuff that has been summering outside into the greenhouse and up under an overhang on the side of the house that is always least affected. This year was the 20th year anniversary of Frances and Jean, which both hit us hard here, and we have also been adversely affected with tree damage by Irma, Ian, Idalia and Debby. Hopefully this will not be awful. But I'm not holding my breath

[flplantguy]

Got everyone moved along the back side of the house in the spot that should get the least wind. Front is empty and open so nothing is staying there. We did well with debby and idalia except a dead tree falling so im not too worried about it if its a similar event. However it doesnt look like thats set in stone, models are going back and forth on intensity and they have hurricane hunter data now while showing a cat 4 or 5 just before landfall.  With stronger storms being more east in models and hurricane force winds projected to be just off shore now a stronger storm could be a big difference.

It also showed me just how big some of my palms have gotten, two shade growers are so large now that have nowhere to go so inside they went.  Clinostogma savoryanum is fast and the Cyphopheonix naboutinense near it put out a large leaf thats still nearly entire and not pinnate at pinnate size, so it would get torn.  With lightning at sunset in the new center core sleep may not be easy tonight.

[kinzyjr]

@metalfan + @flplantguy

Hope everyone fares well during this one.  I've heard conflicting reports about the size, intensity, and track of the storm already.  Guess we'll know for sure soon enough. 🤞

[metalfan]

The farther west it goes, the better for us. You hate to wish ill on any place. It has to go somewhere...but models continue to disagree slightly, and with a storm this large, a little jog one way or the other can be a big difference

[flplantguy]

Biggest worry today is inland damage to the Tallahassee. It will effect others but anyone there is at risk for the worst winds after coming onshore. And tornadoes for everyone on the peninsula too. Hope everyone comes out ok!

[PalmatierMeg]

Rain appears to be over for now but now the wind is howling. Minimal storm surge. Cat 1 storm for us so we didn't close the shutters. My condolences to the Big Bend and Tallahassee and points north. I'm just glad to luck out of yet another major hurricane. Four since 2004 have given me storm fatigue.

[Looking Glass]

Way, way outside of the danger zone here, but still very windy out there today, with some rain bands here and there.  Good luck up there.  

[D. Morrowii]

Very little rain but it’s windy. So far as expected its pretty mild way over here in East Central.
Hoping for the best for the West coast and Panhandle people who are or will be taking the brunt of this. 

[PalmatierMeg]

Sorry for the poor resolution but this is a live webcam from Lee.gov showing views of the reconstruction of the fishing village of Matlacha, looking from east to west. Hurricane Ian wiped out most of the structures there in 2022. "Reconstruction" is not the term I'd use and it looks like storm surge from Helene will inflict even more catastrophic damage.

For 17 years I made the trek from my home in Cape Coral to the Little Pine Island Wetland Mitigation Bank where I ran an office trailer that was ground zero for restoring this wildlife preserve to its native state by filling in drainage ditches and eliminating invasive vegetation that was destroying native fauna and flora. Beyond Matlacha and LPI is barrier island Pine Island.

The weather today has turned nasty again. You may be able to make out the raging water of Matanzas Pass flowing underneath the western edge of the "Fishingest Bridge in the World" and flinging storm surge water onto the road and into the village.

https://cdn3.wowza.com/5/S0QrRUJiMlZ4YTdU/Matlacha_Bridges/Matlacha_Bridge_2.stream/playlist.m3u8

[kinzyjr]

Thus far here, maximum wind gust of ~20mph with half an inch of rain.

Keep a lookout for tornadoes along the I-75 corridor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AET-4QStr5M

[Jimbean]

10 to 15 mph winds here, occasionally gusting to ~20 mph

Close to an inch of rain for Melbourne/Palm Bay.  

[UK_Palms]

Helene is now a category 4 hurricane and likely to strengthen further in the coming hours.

 

Stay safe out there guys. Fortunately it looks like quite a few of the Florida folk are out of the direct firing line. Some parts are going to get absolutely battered though.

 

[flplantguy]

Gusts here are a bit above what i like to see but its not too bad with the forest blocking a lot of it.  There will be some limbs down and the power just flickered off and back on but it is ok so far. Surge is nasty and bad for a lot of people but i am just above that forecast still, and it would need to reach 18 feet to get here (but that would be the wave action, not the surge height, so not impossible in the right conditions) and top forecast is 12 feet. Highway 19 is 15 feet here.  The wetlands nearby are all baldcypress and i dont think they have ever seen a surge before so i hope that holds.  Hoping everyone left that should have and comes through ok!  It has gotten old thats for sure. Dont look at the new models around october 6th.  I hope they are wrong but the GFS saw this one far out too so im a little apprehensive.

[Looking Glass]

[Looking Glass]

Eye coming ashore about now.   What a mess this will make.  

[kinzyjr]

Captured this radar image earlier.  The image from @Looking Glass shows much the same - storms nearly up to Pittsburgh:

[Looking Glass]

I think it’s kind of crashing into another blob of storm front that was coming across the Southeast and mid Atlantic.