florida Florida Winter 2024-2025

[kinzyjr]

That time of year is quickly approaching again.  It looks like we will get our first cool off on Wednesday, October, 16th, 2024.  We can use this thread to comment, capture screenshots, and post data related to cold events.

[flplantguy]

Right on time it seems for a big cooldown. 52 to 54 for me and im looking forward to it. The best time of year here is fall and spring with winter in a close third. Summer is overrated now when it was my favorite season growing up.

[D. Morrowii]

Looking very nice here this week, windy though. Mid 60s to mid 70s. Hopefully 6-8 weeks of temps like this before the cold fronts start.

[SeanK]

37° for Thursday morning. That's the threshold for frost.

[RFun]

Looks like this will be a mild winter for the Southeast.  Last two Winters have been cold for the Southeast with early freezes in the Fall.  Does not appear to be the case this time around for most of this region.

26 minutes ago, SeanK said:

37° for Thursday morning. That's the threshold for frost.

I checked the latest forecast for the Atlanta area.  Appears to be too dry for frost.  Lows are ranging from 37-40 area for that area.

11 minutes ago, RFun said:

I checked the latest forecast for the Atlanta area.  Appears to be too dry for frost.  Lows are ranging from 37-40 area for that area.

Looks like the same forecast for the Charlotte area as well.

11 minutes ago, RFun said:

I checked the latest forecast for the Atlanta area.  Appears to be too dry for frost.  Lows are ranging from 37-40 area for that area.

It does appear that the colder temperatures will be present for the far North or Northwest parts of that region.  Should be fine for suburban areas there.  Exurban areas definitely get colder in that neck of the woods.

7 minutes ago, RFun said:

It does appear that the colder temperatures will be present for the far North or Northwest parts of that region.  Should be fine for suburban areas there.  Exurban areas definitely get colder in that neck of the woods.

Specifically, far Northern and Northwestern exurbs where you get a bit of elevation.

Edited October 14 by kinzyjr
Mod. Edit: Consolidated responses into one post.

[flplantguy]

51 is my forecast tonight.  Windows will be open for a bit but not all night at that temp🥶🤣.  Im excited to go from summer to winter in one shot (for a day).  I hope the plants dont mind, i have noticed the first big front in fall can damage stuff thats not used to lower humudity here (hibiscus type stuff not palms).  They adjust fast anyway, but if its a small palm seedling thats a bit different, which is why i get multiples of seedlings as insurance.  Heres hoping for a mild, tame, calm, severe storm free winter!

[D. Morrowii]

2 hours ago, flplantguy said:

51 is my forecast tonight.  Windows will be open for a bit but not all night at that temp🥶🤣.  Im excited to go from summer to winter in one shot (for a day).  I hope the plants dont mind, i have noticed the first big front in fall can damage stuff thats not used to lower humudity here (hibiscus type stuff not palms).  They adjust fast anyway, but if its a small palm seedling thats a bit different, which is why i get multiples of seedlings as insurance.  Heres hoping for a mild, tame, calm, severe storm free winter!

64 here tonight, it would be cool enough to to have a fire…if it weren't for the wind. 

[SeanK]

TSP should see a quick rebound with no damage. Just some nice afternoons 

[Fishinsteeg234]

Three month outlook….

[RFun]

8 minutes ago, Fishinsteeg234 said:

Three month outlook….

Not 100% by any means, but they are getting better at these longer term forecasts.

[kinzyjr]

The water is having much more of an impact in Central FL for the early season cool front.

Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater:

Lakeland-Winter Haven

Orlando-Sanford-Kissimmee

Daytona-Deland

[JLM]

Expecting 44F tonight and 45F tomorrow night. I am hoping for a mild winter. Could use a solid 9a winter after the past two 8b winters. Hopefully the ridging in the East US will hold thru the winter.

[JLM]

Dropped to 43F. Many surrounding areas are in the upper 30s this morning. Considering that there did end up being some dew in spots despite it being so dry, I am lucky to have had no frost this morning.

[RFun]

6 hours ago, JLM said:

Dropped to 43F. Many surrounding areas are in the upper 30s this morning. Considering that there did end up being some dew in spots despite it being so dry, I am lucky to have had no frost this morning.

The ground is still too warm to worry about things there.

[JLM]

17 hours ago, RFun said:

The ground is still too warm to worry about things there.

The ground being warm has nothing to do with frost formation on the leaves of a banana plant or a palm frond.
 

Had a low of 44F this morning. Highs back up into the 80s next week. NOAA predicting a warmer and drier winter this time around. Hoping for the warmer side of that, but desperately hope that we can sneak some beneficial rain in at some point.

[RFun]

8 hours ago, JLM said:

The ground being warm has nothing to do with frost formation on the leaves of a banana plant or a palm frond.
 

Had a low of 44F this morning. Highs back up into the 80s next week. NOAA predicting a warmer and drier winter this time around. Hoping for the warmer side of that, but desperately hope that we can sneak some beneficial rain in at some point.

Well, if those leaves/fronds are high enough off the ground that would moderate the effect of the ground.  But, the ground still does have an effect.

[RFun]

I really wouldn't worry much about it when your low is 43F.  Just saying....

[JLM]

7 hours ago, RFun said:

I really wouldn't worry much about it when your low is 43F.  Just saying....

I’ve never had frost at 43F before, was just pointing out that areas nearby was in the 30s, so I lucked out. Likely had some effect from the river nearby to moderate my temps a little.
 

Even if there was frost, it would’ve been so patchy in nature that it likely wouldnt have been much to talk about regardless.

[RFun]

16 hours ago, JLM said:

I’ve never had frost at 43F before, was just pointing out that areas nearby was in the 30s, so I lucked out. Likely had some effect from the river nearby to moderate my temps a little.
 

Even if there was frost, it would’ve been so patchy in nature that it likely wouldnt have been much to talk about regardless.

Always factor in ground temperature and moisture levels for frost.  No need to worry too much.

[JLM]

Looks like we remain above average temperature wise for the next couple of weeks. Halloween looks to be almost summer-like here, which is a stark difference compared to last year. Had a strong cold front come through for Halloween last year which caused temperatures to tank below freezing that night making it our first freeze of the season. The wind was strong and cold. Not seeing any of that this year for sure, and it almost looks like we might go freeze free through mid November. Can’t say about frost however, there have been some long range hints at a decent cold front sweeping down at some point in the first half of November which could have the potential to bring our first frost with it. We will see….hopefully something brings everyone in the Deep South some much needed rainfall though.

[SubTropicRay]

For all the talk about La Niña and a warmer winter, I'll guarantee you it won't be as "warm" as last year.   Yeah we had cool days last year but it dropped below 45F in Tampa once!  That's something we're likely to never see again.   We'll have colder nights this year and probably a freeze.

 

[RFun]

5 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

For all the talk about La Niña and a warmer winter, I'll guarantee you it won't be as "warm" as last year.   Yeah we had cool days last year but it dropped below 45F in Tampa once!  That's something we're likely to never see again.   We'll have colder nights this year and probably a freeze.

 

You never know.  Some spots may be the exception to the rule.  

[Silas_Sancona]

11 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

 Yeah we had cool days last year but it dropped below 45F in Tampa once! That's something we're likely to never  see again. 

-Game -On..    

 Bold enough myself to bet $1.00 ..Heck, make it 2...   that Tampa sees -at least-  2 winters where the lows through the entire winter that year / those years don't drop below 45F  ....between now and 2042..

..Also willing to add .50cents to the pot that, within the same timeframe,  Cen. / S. FL experiences at least one 5-8 day stretch during a exceptionally dry summer where air temps exceed 110F, ...with one or two of those days exceeding 115F over a wide area  ..Air temp, ...not Air temp + Dew Point / Humidity combined.

Possible such a setup occurs at the same time we experience a cooler than average and exceptionally wet ( wetter than 2021, '84, '55 and / or even 1964 ) summer here.

On other words,  Never  say never...  Esp. in a world that is only warming up.

[bubba]

A scientific expert's contrarian view on "Climate Change" from Dr. Patrick Moore, doctorate of ecology and co-founder of Greenpeace:

 

[kinzyjr]

The debate over climate change and global warming has been had many times, and usually ends up in threads being removed, locked, heavily moderated, etc.  Dean's patience and diplomatic tone is well-documented as a result.  Everyone is free to have their own take on the issue, but that issue is not the topic of discussion.  The purpose of the thread is to document any cold events that may or may not come during the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.

Personally, if it never goes under 45F for anyone and/or there are no posts of any consequence in regard to plant-killing freezes, I'll take it.  Hopefully that comes to fruition, but all you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Tropical gardening in Florida is a game where you know the score at the end of the game before it starts, but you're just hoping to sneak in a few good innings.

[SubTropicRay]

They've planted a good sized Pigafetta at Fairchild.  That's major zone pushing.  IF they can zone push like that, so can I.🤪

[bubba]

Still waiting for a low temperature below 70 F! The weather has actually been quite pleasant with highs in the low 80'sF and lows around 72F. Feels good with a constant breeze.

I will post pictures of the Red Sealing Wax palm down the street (similar cold tolerance to a Pigafetta) as a bellwether. Although some experts claim we are in a warm uptick in an Ice Age (which I hope), something tells me that the Red Sealing Wax is living on borrowed time...

[Jimbean]

2 hours ago, bubba said:

Still waiting for a low temperature below 70 F! The weather has actually been quite pleasant with highs in the low 80'sF and lows around 72F. Feels good with a constant breeze.

I will post pictures of the Red Sealing Wax palm down the street (similar cold tolerance to a Pigafetta) as a bellwether. Although some experts claim we are in a warm uptick in an Ice Age (which I hope), something tells me that the Red Sealing Wax is living on borrowed time...

I'm just waiting for the dew point to drop below 70F up here in Brevard. 

[flplantguy]

We had two days of 50s with that big front in october and nothing chilly since all the way up here. Lows over 70 even!  We should be low 60s and upper 50s with the sand that cools so fast at night. I still have not set up the cover on the greenhouse since its too warn yet. I really hope it isn't a swing with an 18 this january (record low here), but at least my in ground plants are still small. When the big one hits down there it will be brutal, but im hoping urban heating has created a shield/temp bump we can all take advantage of.  Maybe it already has and we just dont know it yet, 2022 was a good example of both types of freezes and the urban/water effect today.  I have researched what sets the stage for it either way, and i will be "ready" (i think) for when mother nature decides to let us know the reality.  Crossing my fingers (still) for another mild winter!🤞

[kinzyjr]

I'm good with some "California Weather" as @bubba calls it, but let's stay away from the evil nights below freezing. ❄️🌨️

[SubTropicRay]

Warm weather now means we get the trough and cold weather later.  There's no escaping it.

[bubba]

Agree with Ray. Saw Golfers in Senior PGA event in Phoenix wearing cold weather gear yesterday. The west gets their cold early but we get it later. That stated, there are exceptions!

[SeanK]

On 11/7/2024 at 7:29 PM, SubTropicRay said:

Warm weather now means we get the trough and cold weather later.  There's no escaping it.

Generally my fear. If the cold gets bottled up in December, more likely we'll have worse cold in January. Better if some cold leaks from the Arctic early, getting replaced by warm air. Then the January cold is less severe.

[kinzyjr]

It's still a way off, but it looks like we'll have some cooler weather as we approach Thanksgiving.

[flplantguy]

Which is closer to normal, the last two novembers or this?  It seems to me we should be having some chill by now here and not lows above 70, but the last two were coolish to me. I know its way above average so i think we swung the pendulum back.  10b winter or 9b(a!?) is what im thinking; either the warm is the new norm or its gearing up for a giant screw you cold wave. Again. We have entered a cool phase recently in the PDO, and it hit the lowest recorded value recently, so thats interesting. I prefer a park bench and not a swing for my weather experience.

[kinzyjr]

It's looking more like fall in the extended forecast.  All is subject to change this far out and we may have another named storm to deal with before we get to that point in the forecast.

[flplantguy]

How many years is it such a flip like a switch? New Mexico was like that sometimes too. It seems like fall was more gradual before but now summer is holding on outside of quick dips. the plants like it though.  Not much of a pleasant fall this year but the cool weather is welcome!

[JLM]

The threat of freezing temperatures next week seems to be going down, but the week of Thanksgiving is still up in the air. If some of the recent modeling sticks, we may go frost free next week as well, the average between all the models generally brings me down to about 43F. Some guidance does still bring it down to freezing however, so the threat is still there. Will be monitoring closely.

If we are lucky, we will go frost free into December. The luck is bound to end eventually though, we will just have to see when that is.

[D. Morrowii]

On 11/13/2024 at 7:16 PM, kinzyjr said:

It's looking more like fall in the extended forecast.  All is subject to change this far out and we may have another named storm to deal with before we get to that point in the forecast.

Apple Weather is predicting mid 40s in my area late next week.

[SubTropicRay]

Remember 42, 46, 48F  or whatever temp forecasted below 50F is much more damaging now than the same temp in January or February.  Tender plants really hate the sudden temperature changes this time of year when it's been preceded by warm/hot weather.