florida Florida Winter 2024-2025

[JeskiM]

LOL !

-Matt

[aabell]

A noticeably warmer outlook since yesterday, especially for the weekend of the 10th-12th which is where the models had the deepest freezes originally. A long stretch of cool nights like this can start to take a toll but as of right now nothing to lose sleep over here in southwest Florida. 

[Merlyn]

@aabell I saw the same thing with Wunderground's 10 day forecast.  This is for Sanford airport, which is typically ~3F warmer than my place.  Highs in the mid 50s and lows approaching freezing for 6 days straight will be a big test on some plants, but most of mine have survived 25-28F with frost and only hitting 60 the next day.  So the weak ones are already Darwin-ed out in my yard...I hope!

[flplantguy]

My location is showing the same chilly week of temps below 55, but near 40 at night with the onshore wind. When it switches around i expect to see how low it gets here after a longer chilly spell.  Cross your fingers its not the beginning of a 2010 style event. I dont think so, but how many people thought that 2010 would happen here before it did?

[flplantguy]

And a snippet of the source cold building from today in Alaska.  I looked at the history of cold this past winter, and the last time it was this cold there was November and December- just before it got cold here.  Not necessarily a pattern or anything, but it suggests that cold temps are coming that could be as bad or worse than that cross polar flow event.  It's chillier in S Florida now than it was then, so I think we will all get some chill, if not a freeze in the typical spots at least.

[HudsonBill]

50s for highs 30s for lows days on days on days is gona be horrible for my coconuts. Owell got to enjoy it while it lasted 😅😅😅

[Matthew92]

Quite a chilly period coming to Northwest FL. 

[_nevi]

23 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Quite a chilly period coming to Northwest FL. 

Thankfully not as freakish as advertised by models last week.

[Matthew92]

21 hours ago, _nevi said:

Thankfully not as freakish as advertised by models last week.

Yeah I've noticed its now backed off a little bit. Highs are no longer in the 40's through the cold period forecast here. Although one night is still at 23 deg. 

I noticed early on the runs of the GFS and Euro showed down to Central FL freezing. The mechanism of transport of cold air from the arctic seems to have been hampered to a degree though and there is no huge trough that extends down to Jacksonville to bring it down this far at such a potent degree.

[chad2468emr]

Hey guys! Been a while since I posted, but I wanted to show my face for a bit to share in the collective “UGHHHHHH” that the next few weeks look like for Floridians that love growing stuff that has no business being in their yard. (Like myself, haha) 

Below is the present forecast for myself in zone 10a just NW of downtown Orlando. I’ve got half a dozen archies, two coconuts, plenty of various dypsis, latania, and chams planted around that I’m nervous for…. Honestly just one night of the temps forecasted wouldn’t have me worried for anything other than frost/defoliation (I’ve seen coconuts handle freakish, single-night lows in the 30’s in Fort Lauderdale) but the consecutive cold nights have me worried. I’m accepting that everything will defoliate / burn, but I’m going to wrap as many crown shafts / growth points in rope lights + blankets + duct tape as possible. 

Here’s hoping we all lose no (or at least a minimal amount of) palms! 

[kinzyjr]

@chad2468emr Good to see you around again!  Hoping for no evil nights myself.  The coconuts here are doing alright, so hopefully just some tattered leaflets going into spring.

[Looking Glass]

Yeah the forecast seems to have moderated, but it looks like a lengthy stretch of cool weather down here, rather than the usual 2-3 days max.  We did have some fog recently.. which only happens like one day a year here.  

[Jimbean]

The forecast of south Brevard is looking like 40F for Tuesday morning. 

[HudsonBill]

Ooooooooof

[flplantguy]

Now that its almost here this is my forecast for the next week+.  Not very warm and i doubt the 36 is right (more like 33 or lower) but not too bad. Houston below freezing but above 30 in the city center tells me we will be close to the numbers for the windy part, but radiational freezes are worse for the area just inland from me. This is a typical strong winter front, so it will tell me how that works in this yard and what to expect.  Still 10a winter this year so far, and all of last winter of course.  If this one stays above freezing, then i know only the major events drop my spot lower than 32, and if those are infrequent i may get away with more plants than i thought🤞.

[HudsonBill]

Drive around coastal pasco especially southern pasco there tons of borderline trees that have been doing amazing! Coastal pasco from little road west was bumped up to 10a on the new hardiness map and the plants growing prove it. Have you seen the big mango trees along 19 like 2 miles south of pasco hernano border? 

[SeanK]

Weekend North to South:

GAINESVILLE, GA
Saturday: 39/21
Sunday: 42/26

GAINESVILLE, FL
Saturday: 60/34
Sunday: 55/35

SEBRING, FL
Saturday: 75/45
Sunday: 64/42

--> Low temps are the following morning

 

[flplantguy]

39 for the low this morning with a light steady wind.  Warmer than forecast by a bit but tonight is the bigger question with patchy frost and 36 forecast.  I know where in the yard will have issues so its just deciding what to cover, if anything.  The clouds this morning need to leave and come back at dusk lol.

[HudsonBill]

1 hour ago, flplantguy said:

39 for the low this morning with a light steady wind.  Warmer than forecast by a bit but tonight is the bigger question with patchy frost and 36 forecast.  I know where in the yard will have issues so its just deciding what to cover, if anything.  The clouds this morning need to leave and come back at dusk lol.

Bet it never gets out of the 40s today and I bet money it gets below freezing upper 20s tonight inland from you. 

[flplantguy]

1 hour ago, HudsonBill said:

Bet it never gets out of the 40s today and I bet money it gets below freezing upper 20s tonight inland from you. 

I get worried on days with highs below 55 and sunny this time of year, and i think your right about the cold pocket. Dew points up around 31 to 32 in the models, so possibly at freezing with frost, but i think 26 to 28 for the coldest spots is possible if winds die completely.  Here is always a few degrees warmer, 3 to 6 at least, and even as much as 9 degrees in early fall. Now though? No idea, but last time the front we had that came in like this with a 32 and change the first night and 31 the next and frost two years ago.  If that pattern holds like it has been then 37 or 36 is dead on, and im hoping to see it happen so i can confirm my yard's pattern.  The rest of the forecast has also moderated, with the next risk of a freeze coming the 21st or so. 

[HudsonBill]

8 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

I get worried on days with highs below 55 and sunny this time of year, and i think your right about the cold pocket. Dew points up around 31 to 32 in the models, so possibly at freezing with frost, but i think 26 to 28 for the coldest spots is possible if winds die completely.  Here is always a few degrees warmer, 3 to 6 at least, and even as much as 9 degrees in early fall. Now though? No idea, but last time the front we had that came in like this with a 32 and change the first night and 31 the next and frost two years ago.  If that pattern holds like it has been then 37 or 36 is dead on, and im hoping to see it happen so i can confirm my yard's pattern.  The rest of the forecast has also moderated, with the next risk of a freeze coming the 21st or so. 

Yeah but it's literaly still in the low to mid 40s at noon. It's not warming up almost at all from this am also been cloudy. The colder it is now the colder it will be tonight. This reminds me of christmas 2 years ago 40s during the day 20s overnight 

[flplantguy]

Thats the timing on the coldest air arriving during the day.  This one does not have the depth and expanse of cold air that that did, with even miami not reaching 50 degrees for almost 48 hours.  It would have been much colder if the clouds cleared that night too. This is just the follow up to the previous cold and snow allowing the cold to go further than without the snow and cold previous. Thats why the next front is my concern, if the snow builds up north any cold has a better chance of arriving unmoderated. 2022 had little snowcover and the cold was still insanely powerful out west, more so than this, but the lack of snow saved us here.   All those variables make for stressful zone pushing here thats for sure!

[flplantguy]

And just as im checking models to decide on if im covering things and the NWS issues a frost advisory. Second time this winter for inland and prob not the last. models indicating a possible widspread inland light freeze thursday morning too, along the lines of the coldest night of the year on average for Pasco so a freeze is likely here too.  Frost likely as well so lots of covers to play with this week.

[HudsonBill]

2 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

And just as im checking models to decide on if im covering things and the NWS issues a frost advisory. Second time this winter for inland and prob not the last. models indicating a possible widspread inland light freeze thursday morning too, along the lines of the coldest night of the year on average for Pasco so a freeze is likely here too.  Frost likely as well so lots of covers to play with this week.

Figured it was coming no way high temps are this low and we don't get frost or freeze. It's hona be a long January. As soon as I can im moving south. 

[Jimbean]

44F here this morning, had a high of 58F.  The forecast is 44F for tomorrow morning. 

[flplantguy]

And two hours later what i want to protect is covered. Forecast of 38, 36, 36 the next three nights. Likely overkill on covering but i wont know until after and last time had a sudden surprise so since i could cover i did.  Even three degrees off is still above freezing and thats what happened last time.  Wet soil from .25" of rain yesterday is new and why im concerned for frost; i dont know if it will help or hinder frost formation and i dont trust books telling me when a mistake could be costly.

[flplantguy]

2 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

Figured it was coming no way high temps are this low and we don't get frost or freeze. It's hona be a long January. As soon as I can im moving south. 

Hawaii would be my ideal if i could, but thats not likely.  Im just hoping observation and the forest helps me plan around frost and major advective events fade into history.  Better to try and fail than never try and kick myself for being right after all, but i fully expect another major event soon enough.

[HudsonBill]

53 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Hawaii would be my ideal if i could, but thats not likely.  Im just hoping observation and the forest helps me plan around frost and major advective events fade into history.  Better to try and fail than never try and kick myself for being right after all, but i fully expect another major event soon enough.

Id be happy in se fl lol. It's 42 in my yard already.  Just checked 3 different spots all 42.  

[flplantguy]

My temps have leveled off at 40.5 or so and came up to 41, so it may not drop like a rock everywhere here.  Inland has levelled off at 36 and will likely drop to freezing by morning, it wont stay at 36 all night.  Frost with the dewpoints will be more widespread than last time, i bet roofs all over will be frosty and some will be surprised come morning further south.

[kinzyjr]

The hourly weather records for the airports from afternoon 01/04/2025 to afternoon 01/07/2024 are attached in Zip format.

20250107_NWS.zip

[HudsonBill]

36 no frost on grass a few cars have a little bit. 

[flplantguy]

35 and light bits of frost on a few covers and cars.  My station is consistently 2 degrees colder than all the ones around it, and 3 warmer than inland areas not far away.  Night one is done, the next two will be interesting to see how it goes all over with the chill settling in.  36 forecast next two nights now so the same as tonight really here.

[HudsonBill]

19 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

35 and light bits of frost on a few covers and cars.  My station is consistently 2 degrees colder than all the ones around it, and 3 warmer than inland areas not far away.  Night one is done, the next two will be interesting to see how it goes all over with the chill settling in.  36 forecast next two nights now so the same as tonight really here.

36 here truck says 37 back yard says 36 all said 38 2 hours ago lol no frost on roofs or grass just a little on 1 of our cars. 

[flplantguy]

And all this is normal for january so im ok with it.  As long as that continues the next month and a half or so lol. Im betting pinellas saw some frosty roofs too and that was normal a few times a year there outside a big event.  Up to 40 already an hour later with 55 expected today.  No damage seen on sensitive indicators either, so maybe that means i dont need to worry about inland frost advisories but i still will lol.

[HudsonBill]

Just now, flplantguy said:

And all this is normal for january so im ok with it.  As long as that continues the next month and a half or so lol. Im betting pinellas saw some frosty roofs too and that was normal a few times a year there outside a big event.  Up to 40 already an hour later with 55 expected today.  No damage seen on sensitive indicators either, so maybe that means i dont need to worry about inland frost advisories but i still will lol.

Yep even over where I am i ended up exactly where you ended up. We have been so id say you and me have a very very similar climate

[flplantguy]

1 hour ago, HudsonBill said:

Yep even over where I am i ended up exactly where you ended up. We have been so id say you and me have a very very similar climate

Yep, as does beacon woods east, the area between moon lake and little rd near the hidden lake project, and the warmer spots inland and where urbanization took over open cold areas.  I have three "zones" for pasco, the warmest is 10a like in the southwest corner, the warm 9b is next where we are, and the solid zone 9 is undeveloped lands north and shady hills. Most of the county is the middle ground like much if central florida, and will drop below freezing regularly (multiple times some years, none at all others) but for short periods outside a major event. 

If this is the only cold this year then the heat islands are really pushing back the cold well.  I expect a few more big fronts at the least unless the pattern flips completely, which is not forecast to my knowledge.  Add in the idea of a thicker armosphere in the tropics from climate change, and maybe it all inhibits the extreme drops we used to get.  No way to know for sure, unless its a no with a 2021 type event hitting Florida as well as texas, making it clear that its all false hope and i need to move lol.

[Looking Glass]

We usually keep the AC on 76F.  I woke up to a cold house this AM.  In 15 years in south Florida, I’ve never once turned the heat, but I do have this handy little heater to blow on me during the hard times.  The house will naturally hold steady at about 70 degrees for 2-3 days, during short cold snaps, which is all we ever get.   It’s at 70 now, but tonight…. It will start to drop.   Socks, sweatpants, and the little heater will be coming out. 

 

[flplantguy]

The Tampa forecast discussion mentioned high clouds over the southern parts of the area (keeping temps up last night) will be unlikely tonight so colder for those areas, same temps for me.  That explains why it was colder by me and not as cold south, so three nights of mid 30s for me and two elsewhere is a pretty much a solid winter event. However even brooksville airport has not been below 27 yet, and nothing close to an advective freeze, so nothing noteworthy or extreme this year. Yet.

[RiverCityRichard]

39.4f was the lowest on my stations here in the southwest corner of Volusia County. My two sensors under canopy were 41f. No frost as I don’t think we hit the dew point. Forecast was a low of 38. Forecast for tomorrow morning showing a low of 36f. Expecting a light frosting as the winds have died down.

[flplantguy]

These cold weather warnings (not wind chill) are new to me.  No frost advisory but i dont believe that. Never hit 52 all day on the tempest station and others nearby are at 52 so im a bit concerned for tonight.  Two more nights on this one then a break. For the highs during the day i feel like the lows should be lower, but i wont complain that they arent.