florida Florida Winter 2024-2025

[JLM]

Next two weeks look above average for temps. Hopefully that continues into the back half of February. My queens will need as much warmth as they can get, and i plan to kickstart the recovery process tomorrow despite still being January. Normally i would just hold off until March but these palms have been torched the past 3 winters now.

[kinzyjr]

I received permission from the original poster to rename their thread for Central Florida to include observations for Florida and the Southeast USA.  Here is the official cold damage thread for January's long cold and snow storm:

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/87879-january-2025-cold-damage-florida-and-se-usa/

[Matthew92]

Meteorological community on X is abuzz with a potential polar vortex split mid Feb. If a polar vortex lobe like this swung this far south it could give potential for round 2 of cold weather in the Southeast US. Both Euro and GFS show the split now. Subject to change though as this is still somewhat far out.

 

[Sabal_Louisiana]

 

Sure, it bears watching but...

We're already ruined this season so of course now the bitter cold will stay up to the north like it should have in January.

Despite the vortex split,  I see no indication (yet) of freezing weather in the Deep South. 

Unlike the ominous medium-long range model forecasts that were shown in unison by the Euro, the GFS and the cfsv2 back in early January, the latest GFS 384 hr runs show nothing but mild temperatures ahead as does the predicted CFSV2 weekly anomalies for the next 4 weeks:

 

[Matthew92]

Looking at my forecast, getting close to 80 deg at the beginning of February in Northwest FL is quite something. I've lived here long enough though to recognize it's too early to get this warm and stay warm from now through spring. Regardless of what happens with the polar vortex, I believe we will have a freeze or freezes sometime in the 2nd half of Feb (at least Northern FL). It's too early and the pattern has to swing back. Now if we were in mid to late Feb getting such warm temperatures through the 10 day forecast: I would say we could be done with any threat of significant freezes, but there's too much of winter left at this point. Unfortunately, some plants and trees will probably start trying to grow again (or break dormancy) and if we get a significant freeze later in February it could be quite destructive. 

[JLM]

13 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Looking at my forecast, getting close to 80 deg at the beginning of February in Northwest FL is quite something. I've lived here long enough though to recognize it's too early to get this warm and stay warm from now through spring. Regardless of what happens with the polar vortex, I believe we will have a freeze or freezes sometime in the 2nd half of Feb (at least Northern FL). It's too early and the pattern has to swing back. Now if we were in mid to late Feb getting such warm temperatures through the 10 day forecast: I would say we could be done with any threat of significant freezes, but there's too much of winter left at this point. Unfortunately, some plants and trees will probably start trying to grow again (or break dormancy) and if we get a significant freeze later in February it could be quite destructive. 

Neighbors maple tree wasted no time getting started here. Already starting to flower.

[Hombre de Palmas]

18 hours ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

 

Sure, it bears watching but...

We're already ruined this season so of course now the bitter cold will stay up to the north like it should have in January.

Despite the vortex split,  I see no indication (yet) of freezing weather in the Deep South. 

Unlike the ominous medium-long range model forecasts that were shown in unison by the Euro, the GFS and the cfsv2 back in early January, the latest GFS 384 hr runs show nothing but mild temperatures ahead as does the predicted CFSV2 weekly anomalies for the next 4 weeks:

 

I also do not see any serious cold outbreaks reflected in the CFS long-range model that takes us into March. I looked at the EPS and GEF this morning and they continue to concur on a warmer pattern into mid-February. On the other hand, once you get out past two weeks even a general forecast becomes little more than a dart throwing endeavor. I will follow the forecasts over the next couple weeks. If, in mid-February, the forecast continues in the present trajectory, I will suspend my frost concerns and find something else to fret about until we head closer toward hurricane season.😱

One observation I would like to report is that we should have a bumper crop of mangoes this season based on the massive amount of flowering I can see in the area. Last year it was pretty sparse.

[JLM]

I finally got a chance to sit down and put together all the temperature data from 1/20/25 to 1/23/25. All temperature data recorded in my front yard by my ambient weather station. It went below freezing by 8 PM on the 20th and did not rise above freezing again until around 12:30 PM on the 22nd. The low temp on the morning of the 22nd was a brutal 12F, and my yard experienced 6 hours below 20F. Dropped down briefly into the teens again early on the 23rd for about an hour total. Between the 20th to the 23rd, we spent about 73 out of 96 hours below freezing. Below is the charts i put together for each of those days. Pink represents 10s, purple 20s, dark blue 30s, and light blue 40s: