florida Florida Winter 2024-2025

[flplantguy]

Another long cool spell, yay.  At least its january, when its supposed to be chilly.  The last one was so early most of the state got nothing, hopefully this one is not 4 days of radiational cooling after multiple fronts, but consistantly moving air. Still a ways out too so it should change, but thats a lot like a january 2010 redo and im ok with not doing that lol.

[flplantguy]

One run for january 11 of the euro.  Brrrr. Arctic oscillation forecast to drop to -4 or so also, but not as extreme the other two (NAO and PNA). I figured the super strong vortex would have to change Sooner or later and it looks like the pattern wants a other direct hit to the SE. That 27 in orlando is possible, but with the heat island I question it unless this is a big one or thats not downtown.

[D. Morrowii]

I’m on the wrong side of that 32deg line if that forecast holds. I might have to protect a few things if the temps are supposed to be below 35 for more than a couple hours but nothing crazy. Below 28 and I might be in for it lol. 

[Looking Glass]

  On 12/28/2024 at 2:18 PM, D. Morrowii said:

That doesn't look like the average 3-4 day run.

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Yeah.  I was surprised that it looked like an extended week+ of nights in the 50s and even perhaps a 40s here.   That’s a bit long, and not terrible for the palms I have, but certain crotons and bromeliads will get leaf drop and leaf burn from a long run like that.  Could be a rough time as you head more north.  

[flplantguy]

I just saw another model run for the GFS showing a 19 in SW Florida. That seems a bit much so they are likely exaggerated, but still a cold event likely coming.

[flplantguy]

Or this one if you want a good scare.  More in the realm of what a bad event would be but i still think overdone.

[HudsonBill]

  On 12/28/2024 at 6:54 PM, flplantguy said:

Or this one if you want a good scare.  More in the realm of what a bad event would be but i still think overdone.

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[Looking Glass]

  On 12/28/2024 at 6:54 PM, flplantguy said:

Or this one if you want a good scare.  More in the realm of what a bad event would be but i still think overdone.

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[D. Morrowii]

  On 12/28/2024 at 7:13 PM, Looking Glass said:

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😂 

[Jimbean]

The forecast here doesn't show anything that bad.  Some mid 40's.

[kinzyjr]

The forecast has been bouncing up and down, but as @Jimbean mentioned, not the devastating record-setting freeze alluded to by a few runs of the Euro model.  17F here would set a record, as would 20F in Broward county.   That map shared by @HudsonBill is the stuff nightmares are made of in this part of the CONUS.

If 37F is as bad as it gets this winter, I'll take it. 

[RedRabbit]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:08 AM, kinzyjr said:

The forecast has been bouncing up and down, but as @Jimbean mentioned, not the devastating record-setting freeze alluded to by a few runs of the Euro model.  17F here would set a record, as would 20F in Broward county.   That map shared by @HudsonBill is the stuff nightmares are made of in this part of the CONUS.

If 37F is as bad as it gets this winter, I'll take it. 

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18f in Jax, 17f in Lakeland, and 20f in Broward… That model isn’t worth the electricity used to train it.

[JeskiM]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:12 AM, RedRabbit said:

18f in Jax, 17f in Lakeland, and 20f in Broward… That model isn’t worth the electricity used to train it.

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LOL .  ... a true statement.

I know some guys that work in AI who have said the exact same thing.  These models are not AI, but like all models of non-linear, chaotic systems, you can get some really crazy outputs sometimes.

The only thing I can say is that this output may be extreme, but it's not outside the realm of possibilities. Chances are that it's overblown, but does pick up a cold pattern coming for the eastern CONUS.

-Matt

[UK_Palms]

  On 12/29/2024 at 2:25 PM, JeskiM said:

LOL .  ... a true statement.

I know some guys that work in AI who have said the exact same thing.  These models are not AI, but like all models of non-linear, chaotic systems, you can get some really crazy outputs sometimes.

The only thing I can say is that this output may be extreme, but it's not outside the realm of possibilities. Chances are that it's overblown, but does pick up a cold pattern coming for the eastern CONUS.

-Matt

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I think AI has been incorporated into some of these models, especially the GFS and ECM. I know the ECM actually has an AI specific run that goes out 384 hours / 16 days. I can only get it for the UK right now, but that is 100% AI based. 

 

I'm not sure how much AI has been merged with the other models, but I think they are transferring it to GFS. Whether or not there is already some degree of AI involved in that model, I don't know. But it is already in the ECM. I believe the Canadian GEM model is going to start using it as well soon. 🤔

[RedRabbit]

  On 12/29/2024 at 2:25 PM, JeskiM said:

LOL .  ... a true statement.

I know some guys that work in AI who have said the exact same thing.  These models are not AI, but like all models of non-linear, chaotic systems, you can get some really crazy outputs sometimes.

The only thing I can say is that this output may be extreme, but it's not outside the realm of possibilities. Chances are that it's overblown, but does pick up a cold pattern coming for the eastern CONUS.

-Matt

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My understanding is that the Euro uses machine learning so it’s AI but not like GPT. 

In any case, a forecast that puts Broward just 2f warmer than Jacksonville isn’t plausible. 

[flplantguy]

Its like the model forgot the water temps and their impacts. Even if a low forms in just the right spot like 89 its not that close in range in reality.  And if it did happen....

[Looking Glass]

  On 12/29/2024 at 4:12 AM, RedRabbit said:

18f in Jax, 17f in Lakeland, and 20f in Broward… That model isn’t worth the electricity used to train it.

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That would indeed be crazy.   If that were to happen, I think most of the trees and plants in my area would be dead.  

It’s gloom city, drizzle mist out today….

That being said, it will be interesting to see what happens into the 2nd week of January, as the forecast is oscillating back and forth right now.   4 days with a high of 60s and some nights in the 40s is cold down here, and enough to cause some cosmetic damage to the very tropical stuff.   We shall see, I guess.   Winter’s icy hand seems poised to fondle the nether-region of the US soon.  

[JeskiM]

The euro model has both dynamic/statistical models and recently added an AI driven model that they built in-house.

The AI runs are not showing this deep/strong PV, only the dynamic model is. 

There are more and more AI models coming from the various international agencies. The allure to to AI models is that they are based mostly on pattern recognition and are extremely fast...they can be executed many, many times per day. The dynamical/statistical models run only four times daily and take a long time to execute since they are applying physical equations against many data points.

The AI models are "good", but have their own set of problems such as: They struggle with small scale atmospheric phenomena (sub synoptic / mesoscale). They completely lack fidelity and consistency on well bounded physical solutions involving energy, kinematics, and radiative properties of the atmosphere. Their solution is therefore overly "smooth" at the small scale and can mislead the forcaster/analyst on critical systems such as a localized tornado outbreak.

-Matt

 

[JLM]

Yeah I might as well just go ahead and wrap Christmas lights on the palms now if the model guidance continues to persist like it has for over a week now.

[Merlyn]

I just saw a similar run here:

Orlando being 2F warmer than Tallahassee seems...implausible.  Palm Bay being colder than Orlando seems...implausible.  I think their AI is missing the "I" part...

[flplantguy]

Those numbers are truly ridiculous, but still an indicator that major cold is coming. The "AI" stuff is being overly glorified and these are showing up all over EXCEPT the official forecasts. Like hurricanes, trust the experts and prepare, but move when the time comes.  Im sticking with a possible freeze in my area but colder than wanted elsewhere, nothing disasterous but not wanted anyway lol. Crossing my fingers its all wrong and changes, but im not one to hope TOO much lol and know one day it will. Might as well be when they are all small.

[SeanK]

  On 12/28/2024 at 2:56 PM, flplantguy said:

One run for january 11 of the euro.  Brrrr. Arctic oscillation forecast to drop to -4 or so also, but not as extreme the other two (NAO and PNA). I figured the super strong vortex would have to change Sooner or later and it looks like the pattern wants a other direct hit to the SE. That 27 in orlando is possible, but with the heat island I question it unless this is a big one or thats not downtown.

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From this morning, an unfriendly update:

 

[SeanK]

  On 12/29/2024 at 10:12 PM, Merlyn said:

I just saw a similar run here:

Orlando being 2F warmer than Tallahassee seems...implausible.  Palm Bay being colder than Orlando seems...implausible.  I think their AI is missing the "I" part...

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No panthers or pumas up my way. I'll ask the wife if we can take in a black bear 🐻.

[RedRabbit]

This looks more plausible but still difficult to believe.

[RiverCityRichard]

  On 12/30/2024 at 4:40 PM, RedRabbit said:

This looks more plausible but still difficult to believe.

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All of these maps show an inconsistency with temperatures north of the state line and in the panhandle being too similar with Central Florida and SW Florida. I can’t fathom how inland South Georgia would only see 4f lower than inland Sarasota County. That being said, the way this system seems to be sinking straight south onto us would mitigate the effect of the Gulf on our temps.

[Merlyn]

The Orlando Accuweather and Weather Channel are forecasting high/low for Friday of 56/42, Saturday 53/34 and Sunday 48/47.  No doubt it'll be cold, but low 20s?  I'm not buying it.  I'll go out on a limb and forecast 27-28F in my yard Saturday night...with frost.

[flplantguy]

There are three fronts showing up on long range with the last hitting hardest and coldest of course, and not in current forecasts yet.  That one shows well below average temps down to Central America on the last front.  I still think it will change, but the models being similar is my biggest concern.  The finer points will decide the temps, if there is no snow storm beforehand it wont be so bad, that kind of thing.  Once its closer i will get truly nervous, but a succsession of fronts like that is what has always brought these major cold waves to florida so thats a big concern especially mid january.

[SubTropicRay]

The AO is predicted to be at a -4 in a week.  That is not supportive of the ridiculous temps being predicted by the cold bias of the Euro model.  In the 2010 deep freeze, the AO was below -6.    And the models are doing anything but agreeing.  One shows cold 2 days before and after the other model.  This far out, both are out to lunch.  The Euro AI model which uses history and similar patterns to forecast cold shows lows to about 32F in Tampa on the 13th.  Just look at some of the maps being posted 🤪  17F in Tallahassee and 22F Ft. Myers??? There's a 10+ degree spread in a worst case.  Go back and look at the data.  Come on man?!  I smell a rat.

[kinzyjr]

This isn't too bad, but subject to change - with or without notice:

[SubTropicRay]

For those on the west central area.  Of course, things can worsen but for now, it's nothing out of the ordinary winter cold event.

 

 

[Jimbean]

I'm still only seeing a forecast low of 44F on Sunday morning.  Those model graphics in this thread look ridiculous 

[kinzyjr]

  On 12/31/2024 at 4:09 AM, Jimbean said:

I'm still only seeing a forecast low of 44F on Sunday morning.  Those model graphics in this thread look ridiculous 

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There are supposed to be 3 fronts coming in succession, with the last one being the worst.  The first one should arrive this weekend as you mentioned.  The second one is currently in the 10-day on Weather.com and is the one that is bouncing up and down currently because it is so far out.  The third one - who knows what we'll get.  Honestly, I'm not sure they know how bad or benign the others will be either judging by the models.  This is what it currently looks like for Melbourne:

The second front looks very much like the advective fronts in January 2018 and December 2022.

[flplantguy]

Im showing a forecast of 10 days below 60 for the high at my place, so im thinking the belief is it will be a long time of NW winds off the now chilly gulf.  Lowest low of 37 so far before the last one not showing up yet. I too am thinking similar to 2018, and hope of it to be short as well with a fast warm up. The whole cold pool is still aloft in the stratosphere with record highs reported all over.  Like winter is taking a deep breath before exhaling it all out.

[kinzyjr]

At this point, it isn't just tin-hat/click-bait sites saying we could set records: https://www.theledger.com/story/weather/severe/2024/12/30/arctic-blast-florida-will-polk-county-flirt-with-historic-lows/77329521007/

[Looking Glass]

  On 12/31/2024 at 5:23 PM, kinzyjr said:

At this point, it isn't just tin-hat/click-bait sites saying we could set records: https://www.theledger.com/story/weather/severe/2024/12/30/arctic-blast-florida-will-polk-county-flirt-with-historic-lows/77329521007/

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[flplantguy]

  On 12/31/2024 at 5:23 PM, kinzyjr said:

At this point, it isn't just tin-hat/click-bait sites saying we could set records: https://www.theledger.com/story/weather/severe/2024/12/30/arctic-blast-florida-will-polk-county-flirt-with-historic-lows/77329521007/

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Dang. I was hoping that it was all outlier and not getting traction due to being so outlandish.  I've been just above freezing 2 nights already, so i expect to see what my yard is like in a major event now. 2022 was a bit different and gave me 27 and 28, so i thought that would be an uncommon thing. I'm not happy to maybe be wrong, but but oh well if it happens.  Nothing to do but be ready, and thankfully thats something we have plenty of is time.  I'll do things this weekend in preparation, leaves gathered and plants made as easy to cover as possible.  Time to see how the H. indica handles a major event, the 32 and change nights didnt phase it.

[JeskiM]

The Ensembles have warmed up since a couple days ago.  We are several days out still, so if you are paying any attention to the numerous NWS offices in the southern tier states you will see that at this time range they are mostly looking at the Ensembles 

The Operational runs of each of the numerous models that make up the Ensemble are all over the place in the 5+ day period.  Some are running way colder than the Ensemble. If you watch the storm tracks from each member's run you see the storms are running on tracks sometimes hundresds of miles apart both latitudinally and longitudinally and by time. The NWS isn't putting much stock in the individual member's runs at that time range ... they rarely ever do anyways...always too much divergence between the models that far out.

There's still a 20-3 degree F variability between temp ranges across the various models through next week. The models are not yet in agreement on the way the pattern will play out. 

To give you an idea of how the NWS is watching this, here's a snippet from today's DFW office morning discussion :

 

Unless you have somehow avoided all news and social media
recently, you have likely seen discussions concerning the
potential for winter precipitation amid next week`s arctic
intrusion. While we don`t have all the answers just yet, here is
where we stand.

What we know:

- So far, the most likely scenario does involve much colder conditions
  following Sunday`s cold front with very high probabilities
  (more than 90% chance) of below normal temperatures (high and
  low) next week.

- Given the origins of this airmass (northwest Canada and the Arctic
  Ocean), these are likely to be some of the coldest temperatures
  we have seen so far this season. Probabilistic guidance is
  currently showing the 10th percentile ("reasonable low-end/cold
  scenario") has highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s and lows as low
  as the upper teens to lower 20s by next Tuesday. Meanwhile, the
  90th percentile ("reasonable high-end/warm scenario") shows
  highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s with only a few
  areas near or below 32 F.

What we don`t know (yet):

- How cold will it actually be. There remains a significant
  amount of spread among ensemble members making this part of the
  forecast challenging still.

- The residence time this airmass will have over our area and if
  any modification will occur.

- The vertical temperature profile and the potential for frozen
  precipitation.

The bottom line is colder temperatures will impact a large
portion of the country next week. Remain vigilant in following
trusted sources for updates to the forecast, and beware of any
conclusions drawn from a single run of a deterministic model (i.e
GFS or ECMWF).

The New Orleans office is saying pretty much the same thing :   .... the 1st sentence in the 3rd paragraph pretty much sums it up !

 

Going into the weekend and beyond, take a deep breath and strap
in because the forecast could take us on a wild ride. The medium
to long range picture hasn`t changed much since the morning
forecast update and uncertainty is still much higher than normal
by the time the weekend rolls around.

Differences in the timing, strength and location (north/south)
of a second low pressure system over the weekend leave us with
little confidence regarding many aspects of the weekend forecast -
including timing and amount of precipitation as well as how cold
it might be. The deterministic Euro continues to indicate a
stronger low with a faster and more northern track compared to the
deterministic GFS. Looking at ensemble guidance really doesn`t
clear things up much with 30 degree spreads in the temperatures by
Sunday morning.

That being said, similar to the morning forecast package, the
only real thing we know about the forecast beyond Friday is that
it`s going to be wrong. Hopefully we`ll start to get a clearer
picture as the features driving the weekend weather get closer to
the west coast and start to move into the CONUS with better
sampling. Once that happens, we normally expect to see the
solutions start to come into better agreement. For now, it`s best
to watch the trends as the finer details are impossible to nail
down given the large spread.

Beyond the current forecast period, confidence is fairly high that
a cold snap is on tap for the second part of next week into the
following weekend. While the magnitude of just how cold remains to
be seen, there is a strong signal for below normal temperatures
during the Dec 8-14 timeframe with CPC currently indicating an
80-90% chance of below normal temperatures.

NOAA WPC''s discussion has the same recap :

Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance remains agreeable in showing a West upper ridge and East upper trough late this week. The timing of eastern Pacific troughing moving into the West and then central U.S. and developing surface low pressure shows much more model variability and uncertainty, however. Through the new 12z guidance for today (which all came in after the forecast generation time), the GFS is the most suppressed and farthest south with this system, while the CMC and ECMWF are farther north. Compared to guidance a day or so ago though, there does seem to be a slight southern trend in heavy snow/ice axes so this is worth monitoring and maybe not completely discounting the GFS at this point. Ensemble means are generally in the middle at this point and not as extreme as their deterministic counterparts, which further emphases the uncertainty not only in north-south placement of the low track but also with the timing. At this point, the WPC blend, which used the older 00z/06z runs, trended towards a general model blend with increasing ensemble mean influence in an attempt to mitigate uncertainty with this system. This generally is consistent with previous WPC forecasts as well. Regardless, there is an increasing signal from all of the guidance for a possibly impactful system with wintry weather. Elsewhere across the CONUS, the guidance shows sufficient agreement with other less impactful systems and the general model blend see, it is mostly a precipitation type uncertainty. med to work well as a good starting point.

 

Now back to my words ....

The large scale pattern (synoptic to hemispheric) long wave pattern and polar vortices are pretty well picked up in all the models. The details, timings, locations, and magnitudes are not.  Bottom line is that the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS is going into an extended cold period with a lot of uncertainty on how the storminess plays out.  Anything beyond 5 days. Temperature wise will be cold, but probably not as cold as the coldest forecasts, so add a few degrees to it, and any precip bets should not be placed just yet.

-Matt

[kinzyjr]

An interesting tool to use to check forecast temperatures, expected duration below 40/32/27 and wind chill below those amounts is available for those in the forecast area for the Tampa Bay WFO:

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/colddss

[PalmatierMeg]

  On 12/30/2024 at 4:40 PM, RedRabbit said:

This looks more plausible but still difficult to believe.

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I put little credence in this forecast. Last time I saw <30F at my property was Jan. 11, 2010, a day that will live in infamy. We had a record low of 28.5F on that date. I lost 30+ species of palm (mostly seedlings) during that freeze. That followed a day when for the first and only time we had rain when the temp was below 50F. The daytime temp fell from the low 40s to mid-30s. Given the amount of concrete and cinder block laid down in the past 15 years I don’t foresee a similar outcome in Jan. 2025

[RedRabbit]

Latest update from the Euro model: