florida Florida Winter 2024-2025

[JLM]

38 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

These cold weather warnings (not wind chill) are new to me.  No frost advisory but i dont believe that. Never hit 52 all day on the tempest station and others nearby are at 52 so im a bit concerned for tonight.  Two more nights on this one then a break. For the highs during the day i feel like the lows should be lower, but i wont complain that they arent.

The Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Watches/Warnings are new. Heres some information from NWS Tampa on the criteria of these alerts for west/central Florida (scroll below the map): https://www.weather.gov/tbw/colddss

[flplantguy]

So it looks like it replaced the wind chill warning and got more specific.  I like that specificity too.

[flplantguy]

Temps in NW Pasco to start the evening. Im at 50 degrees now still with the light onshore wind, but expect it to drop by sunup by a lot once thats stops.  Inland from me crashed hard!  There are many stations there with the same readings, and no sensitive plants are grown there so i believe it. No brazilian peppers, norfolk pines, or bananas unless its a high spot or under heavy cover, or even queen palms in the coldest spot. The soils not great for them either but consistant drops below freezing each winter without consistant chill hours makes growing difficult.

[kinzyjr]

You can see how much urbanization and lakes can influence climate at this time of the evening:

Orlando is as mild or milder as the coast  at the same latitude due to UHI and lakes.  Fresh water has a higher heat capacity than salt water, interestingly enough:

It is closing in on the freezing mark west of Kathleen Rd northwest of Lakeland, but downtown is much milder:

[HudsonBill]

3rd night in a row above forecasted lows. 37 as of 630am 

 

[HudsonBill]

7 hours ago, flplantguy said:

Temps in NW Pasco to start the evening. Im at 50 degrees now still with the light onshore wind, but expect it to drop by sunup by a lot once thats stops.  Inland from me crashed hard!  There are many stations there with the same readings, and no sensitive plants are grown there so i believe it. No brazilian peppers, norfolk pines, or bananas unless its a high spot or under heavy cover, or even queen palms in the coldest spot. The soils not great for them either but consistant drops below freezing each winter without consistant chill hours makes growing difficult.

Man I'm just on th edge of that cold spot. 

[Bill H2DB]

   Here in  greater  Holly Hill   ,  my low this morning was  37.6 .  There was a bit of a NW breeze overnight ,  and this morning  , and only a little rooftop frost was visible on roofs that were next to trees etc , which allowed a bit of settling of the air . DP around 27 deg. 

[kinzyjr]

On 12/31/2024 at 5:28 PM, kinzyjr said:

An interesting tool to use to check forecast temperatures, expected duration below 40/32/27 and wind chill below those amounts is available for those in the forecast area for the Tampa Bay WFO:

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/colddss

Hit a low of 38F this morning, 37F at the airport.  Tomorrow's expected low according to the site above is 40F.  I'll take it.  It keeps the plants alive.

[Merlyn]

I had a minimum of 32 in the back yard last night, with light frost.  As is typical, I'm a lot colder than the local official airport at 38F.

The "named winter storm" silliness doesn't seem to be headed this way.  Apparently there's some warm air pushing up from the South and keeping it warm on Friday night, so the Saturday night low is forecast at 43.  That's a whopping giant miss from the earlier 21F apocalyptic AI models...

[Matthew92]

26 here. Still 32 degrees at 8:30am. Pretty long duration below freezing here. But still not as bad as low 20's originally forecasted.

[flplantguy]

Im uncovering the rest of the plants today. Forecast is still mid 30s overnight, but i have observed enough by now to know the covers can do more harm than good depending on just how bad it is.  Bent spears and cloth supporting frost formation are not the right way to do it.  The ideal protection was used on the most important plants (to me) and no issues.  Odd seeing the chill last so long with no major cold impacts. I have a feeling we will get more by the end of the month too, its showing around the 22nd or so another big one.

[HudsonBill]

28 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Im uncovering the rest of the plants today. Forecast is still mid 30s overnight, but i have observed enough by now to know the covers can do more harm than good depending on just how bad it is.  Bent spears and cloth supporting frost formation are not the right way to do it.  The ideal protection was used on the most important plants (to me) and no issues.  Odd seeing the chill last so long with no major cold impacts. I have a feeling we will get more by the end of the month too, its showing around the 22nd or so another big one.

Been here 4 years and everytime I think I understand my microclimate or the climate in fl I am thrown off by something.  Usually if it's in the 50s for highs the lows are very very low. One cold blast I'm colder than everyone around me the next im warmer and etc. I remember the night I hit 26 a couple years ago it was 37 at like 3am and then boom 26 it always seemed to drop like that every year we had a freeze it would just drop like a rock towards dawn. This year has been different than all the cold spells I've been through. It drops realy fast from about 5pm till 9pm and then levels off and drops super slow if at all the rest of the night. 

[Jimbean]

39.2F Here is south Brevard.  Coldest of the season so far. 

[flplantguy]

The sun today feels different compared to yesterday even with chill. Enough to heat the greenhouse back up and need to open a vent.  Blinding bright winter joy for an otherwise depressing time of year for me.  I much prefer this winter to cloudy last year, but the cold still sucks lol. Family getting snowed in today makes me glad im here though no matter the temp! Long range is cool but not cold and thats ok with me, watching near the end of the month, but nothing bad yet and the last ones didnt pan out, so i expect a similar result with this long range model.  Valentines day is when i start feeling better (not confident!) about cold, but not until april do i start looking to plant since those freak cold fronts in march still happen. now is planning veggie gardens for install/planting in Feb, the seedling tomatoes are impatient lol.

[HudsonBill]

Already? Funny the night there is no frost or freeze warnings it's way colder than all the previous nights. 

[HudsonBill]

Clouds moved in temp has climbed a degree in my yard. 

[Jimbean]

As of 6AM

[Jimbean]

[flplantguy]

It was the coldest night indeed, holding at mid to low 30s all night.  33 and change was the low but mostly 34 to 35 for 7 hours.  No freeze so im happy.

[Hombre de Palmas]

This coming Wednesday-Thursday will be rocky. Fresh snow cover as far south as Tennessee will not be helpful in modifying  a new cold surge.  Models blends are not currently showing an alarming event yet, though the trend has been downward somewhat.  After that, we will begin to warm up closer to normal for awhile, while heading into longer days...which is nice.

[flplantguy]

The coldest parts of shady hills sat at about 30 overnight so thats not that bad. January 2022 there were readings of 19 in those same areas.  These events being longer and closer together, with temps that are cold but not earth shattering, i tend to call a "pre-freeze" that sets up the big one just after (within a week or so). Water temps are colder and there is usualy more snow and ice on the ground further north to aid the cold air intrusion. Models are not in agreement yet (of course) as to how cold it gets up north in Wyoming/the Dakotas either, but the good thing about these if they do become a freeze here is we see them coming in enough tome to prepare, just like a hurricane really.  Be ready all season ans deploy/react when the right time comes.  Or let the plants be and see what happens lol.  That long range outlook of warmer than average for Jan Feb, March is looking like a dud unless it flips pretty hard. SoCal can use a break and rains instead, so im sure no one would complian🤞. Just no flooding and mudslides.

[D. Morrowii]

It was 8 degrees colder than forecast by Apple and 6 degrees colder than TWC at my place last night. I was looking at the “now” weather on my phone early in the evening and it was way off from my or anyone else's weather station in the area. 

[Hombre de Palmas]

We were 5°F cooler than forecast last night that's why I always believe it ain't over 'til it's over. The night before we were 5° F warmer. Somehow I knew I would pay back that luck.

Next week will be dicey, and while we will have a better idea of the extent of the cold by Monday, there will still be some adjustments that may prove critical.  At this point, doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for absolute lows, but the duration takes it's cumulative toll though not fatally for most plantings. It's good plants have been able to harden off to some extent.

I am thinking it is probable that next week is the trough for this Florida winter though, of course, there will be a few more cool/cold spells.

 

[Matthew92]

Even though we got to 26 a couple nights ago, some tender perennials/annuals/tropicals under canopy are still partially green (such as Mandevilla, Salvia, Begonia, Passiflora incarnata, Tibouchina). Even a Jatropha that is somewhat exposed has some undamaged leaves still. 

[Jimbean]

I bottomed out at 41F, in between Melbourne and Palm Bay.  Last winter was above average, this one is closer to average but a bit lengthy in coolness.  

[Matthew92]

Was 49 deg here a couple hours ago, temp has now dropped to 47 and rain while not that far to our north they're getting winter precip.

[kinzyjr]

It was a weird night here.  My location is usually milder than the airport, but recorded 37F here vs. 39F at the airport.  A lot of the stations on WUnderground showed the same thing; that the side of town where the airport was was close to 40F and our neighborhood was in the mid and high 30s.  I could tell it was going to frost at least on the roof tops when I could see my breath by 8pm.  There was frost on the rooftops and some in the yard to the north of me, but the dew on the cars wasn't frozen.  From the image, you can see where the frost formed at the edge of my property and in the neighbor's grass contrasted by the green grass under the oak canopy:

I was outside around midnight with gloves on, and my hands were going numb it felt so cold.  Whatever air mass we were stuck in got us, but at least it wasn't during a record event.  The full slate of airport records are contained in the attached ZIP file.

20250110_NWS.zip

[Matthew92]

Will watch this

 

 

[Hombre de Palmas]

Model blends trending a bit warmer for next week and advertising closer to normal temperatures for Florida heading into February.

The NWS still forecasting a somewhat cooler week than the models but nothing too bad.

[Matthew92]

[Matthew92]

Forecast for my location near Valparaiso, FL was 31 deg, Crestview farther north 25. Got to 25 at my location with very heavy frost (I think in part due to everything still being wet from that heavy rain a couple days ago). 

I usually check the Crestview forecast because a lot of the time the actual temp is closer to what my location gets. For some reason, most of the weather products/forecasts for Valparaiso and Niceville, FL lean heavily on the warm side: but those temperatures only ring true for locations near the bayous/bay. My location on the northern edge of those cities is a few miles north of those warmer influences and much of the time matches those temperatures farther north almost into Alabama. 

[kinzyjr]

The forecast low for the airport was 40F, with the lowest hourly observation at 39.2F.  Here at the ranch, a minimum of 41F.  Up near the Green Swamp, there were multiple recordings in the 36F-37F range.

[D. Morrowii]

Same colder than forecast conditions last night as we had Thursday night. Basically the forecast was 45-47 and we ended up with 41.9 F 16’ up at the main weather station and 43.5 down at ground level under some palm canopy.  

[flplantguy]

Colder than forecast here also, 34.7 for the low, so upper 30s still under canopy uphill from the sensor (i need to place another somewhere protected but havent decided where yet).  Hoping the models get milder before the next one.

[HudsonBill]

47 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Colder than forecast here also, 34.7 for the low, so upper 30s still under canopy uphill from the sensor (i need to place another somewhere protected but havent decided where yet).  Hoping the models get milder before the next one.

It was 42 when I got home at 3am. The temp dropped realy hard before dawn but didn't last long at all. 

[Brian M]

This morning was the coldest thus far this season, bottomed out at 32.0F. Time to plant nothing but 10A palms from here on out 😝. 

Hoping we at least get some more sunshine the rest of the month. These cool, overcast days have overstayed their welcome. 

[Jimbean]

41.1F Here this morning.  A lot of chilly mornings this season but nothing severe.  

[Hombre de Palmas]

45°F here briefly this morning which was two degrees under forecast. We have not been below 40°F this winter so I feel very fortunate, but we have been below normal for nearly two weeks and it looks like it will remain that way for the five days.

I will be happy to get to Friday when a quick warm-up begins with normal to slightly above normal temperatures forecast into February for my area.

[Matthew92]

Earlier outlooks had Central/South FL with above average temps during this period. Has trended colder to where it is now. Still the bulk of the severe arctic air looks to be more in the rest of the CONUS, but things are still changing. Latest EURO run has freezing line near Ocala.

[flplantguy]

I would not be surprised to see the freeze make it further south. It has been a struggle this year to make it to average temps at all and the water is cold too.  Thats a good setup for cold especially if we had the snow to support it. That snow should be melting though so nothing too cold here, and the massive arctic high is not showing in the models as getting far enough south. Too far out still to call but cold once again. Each one of these makes it more possible for the rest of the peninsula to see winter for a change. I think the I4 corridor is becoming a "wall" for South Florida to block cold. That and the lake and all the other development holds more heat than the native environment did. Part of me wants to see a perfect setup happen again and see what the numbers are, but im way too far on the wrong side of that line to be ok if it does.  I will be glad once march is here and spring gets going, especially if my new super allergies arent a problem (🤞 allergy shots work).