florida Florida Winter 2024-2025

[Matthew92]

Earlier Climate Prediction Center Outlook on Jan 11th showing some of FL above avg.

Current Outlook

8-14 day outlook

 

[Matthew92]

It's been cloudy a lot here lately: yesterday rain in the morning and then overcast and the temp basically didn't get out of the 40's. Reminded me of a winter day from when I lived near Stuttgart in Southern Germany... Forecast low last night/this morning was 31, and it got to 30. Light freezes like that are becoming a common occurrence at this point.

[flplantguy]

I bet if this was 100 years ago the freezes here would be heavier, or we are in a setup for a big one. Im not sold on that yet though, the models arent in agreement yet but are trending a bit colder🙄.  I think two specific nights/events this winter would have been colder for us all if not for changes and urbanization.  I was looking forward to winter in october but now im ready for spring. 

[SubTropicRay]

Mother nature is thankfully closing the door on all of this record cold BS.  Positive territory AO baby!!

[HudsonBill]

2 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Mother nature is thankfully closing the door on all of this record cold BS.  Positive territory AO baby!!

How long after it goes positive do you see the effects here? 

[flplantguy]

4 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

How long after it goes positive do you see the effects here? 

Usually a couple weeks at the most, and the pattern of the three big ones (NAO, AO, PNA) is zonal (near the 0) so not cold or hotter than average but close either way.  We want a positive NAO and AO and a negative PNA here in Florida in winter. Summer is not very relevant.

[SubTropicRay]

[Hombre de Palmas]

It does look like we are heading into a more "typical" Florida temperature regime for this area, at least for a while. However, I won't tally the poultry yet.

I do think I heard a sigh of relief from the yard this AM though.

[flplantguy]

The chill at the house was less, and you can see the pattern shifting slightly with slightly warmer days and a fast dawn warmup instead of all day brrrr (like early december was).  Temps forecast to be decent here until the end of the month when it warms nicely. Im hoping that holds and winter is over for us after this next one, but there was not a forecast for cold weather at all to start winter so ill believe it when its here.  Greenhouse has been 50 or higher the whole time other than a short drop to 49.7 or so.  Yard 32.7-32.9 twice and multiple 34 readings (and a cold spot too) so if it does hold im still a solid 10a. Chilly yet not at the same time? Weird but ill take it if this is a bad year.

[HudsonBill]

7 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

The chill at the house was less, and you can see the pattern shifting slightly with slightly warmer days and a fast dawn warmup instead of all day brrrr (like early december was).  Temps forecast to be decent here until the end of the month when it warms nicely. Im hoping that holds and winter is over for us after this next one, but there was not a forecast for cold weather at all to start winter so ill believe it when its here.  Greenhouse has been 50 or higher the whole time other than a short drop to 49.7 or so.  Yard 32.7-32.9 twice and multiple 34 readings (and a cold spot too) so if it does hold im still a solid 10a. Chilly yet not at the same time? Weird but ill take it if this is a bad year.

Such a weird year to me constant chill but no freeze. Meanwhile other years are hot with 80s lots of the winter but then we get a freeze. Still impressed that my back yard has been a degree or 2 warmer than yours seeing how your much closer to the coast and I'm right next to an insane cold pocket. I wont complain! 

[flplantguy]

I think its the spot in general or a cold leaning sensor since even summer is lower than the rest.  I have barely hit 96 twice and one fast rise to 99 on the hottest day this summer which doesnt fit others' readings. Damage seems to match upper 30s too, with the lowest spots seeing minimal frost.  My little exposed sensor this morning was much lower than the tempest, and in a warmer spot (but exposed), and those do not hold well on calm nights relative to the actual temp.

21 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Such a weird year to me constant chill but no freeze. Meanwhile other years are hot with 80s lots of the winter but then we get a freeze. Still impressed that my back yard has been a degree or 2 warmer than yours seeing how your much closer to the coast and I'm right next to an insane cold pocket. I wont complain! 

 

[Matthew92]

While it looks like the low temps will not be necessarily be a mass "palm executioner" situation in FL at this time thankfully (or that reaches very far south in the peninsula), there is currently a real threat of some kind of winter precipitation event in the FL Panhandle next Wednesday. Multiple models continue to show this. Keeping an eye on it for sure.

[JLM]

3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

While it looks like the low temps will not be necessarily be a mass "palm executioner" situation in FL at this time thankfully (or that reaches very far south in the peninsula), there is currently a real threat of some kind of winter precipitation event in the FL Panhandle next Wednesday. Multiple models continue to show this. Keeping an eye on it for sure.

NWS forecasting freezing rain now:

 

[flplantguy]

I just saw some stats on the January precipitation in Seattle and this year is very dry. Why do i mention this seemingly unrelated fact?  The other driest years of similar level include the January in the years 1977 and 1985, among a few others. Many people here know those years well as the ones that were among the most impactful of freezes here.  This January has a similar pattern without the crazy extreme, but could very well have been what the models were saying. Multiple cold shots instead of one huge one is also different, so maybe why its been so chilly is also why we have not been slammed with a monster.  The forecast has moderated yet again, hopefully it eventually removes anything not perfectly liquid from all of Florida and spring begins after.

[JLM]

45 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

I just saw some stats on the January precipitation in Seattle and this year is very dry. Why do i mention this seemingly unrelated fact?  The other driest years of similar level include the January in the years 1977 and 1985, among a few others. Many people here know those years well as the ones that were among the most impactful of freezes here.  This January has a similar pattern without the crazy extreme, but could very well have been what the models were saying. Multiple cold shots instead of one huge one is also different, so maybe why its been so chilly is also why we have not been slammed with a monster.  The forecast has moderated yet again, hopefully it eventually removes anything not perfectly liquid from all of Florida and spring begins after.

In my POV, if its gonna be cold like its guaranteed to be next week regardless of precip, i am okay with seeing frozen precip. Havent seen it in 6-7 years now, it would be quite an experience. We can deal with the negative affects on palms afterward, but at least have a little bit of fun first.

[Silas_Sancona]

10 minutes ago, JLM said:

We can deal with the negative affects

 

10 minutes ago, JLM said:

but at least have a little bit of fun first.

 It's funny you mention this..

As much as i hate Snow  ..and won't live anywhere it is a reoccurring threat, ever  again,  i still wouldn't mind spending a cold morning filming X, Y,  and/or Z  areas i hike  / survey here  right after a quick dusting of white death..  ...As long as it melts away quickly and doesn't return again that same winter afterwards, lol. 😁



 

[JLM]

Just now, Silas_Sancona said:

 

 It's funny you mention this..

As much as i hate Snow  ..and won't live anywhere it is a reoccurring threat, ever  again,  i still wouldn't mind spending a cold morning filming X, Y,  and/or Z  areas i hike  / survey here  right after a quick dusting of white death..  ...As long as it melts away quickly and doesn't return again that same winter afterwards, lol. 😁



 

Yep once it happens i dont want it again for a while haha

[flplantguy]

Im good on snow forever lol. Too many times it caused huge issues.  Im glad im in an area where it doesnt snow, and even if it did it wont last long.  I hope never to see it here🥶😱

[Hombre de Palmas]

Incredible dichotomy between NW & SE Florida. Truly two different worlds, at least this season... SO FAR. There is, of course, usually a significant divergence, but this current pattern really amplifies those deviations.

Having lived in both the tropics (not Florida), and in a region with 6FT of snow annually, I can say I appreciate them both. But now with a yard full of tropicals, and vulnerable infrastructure, I fear the north wind. A hard freeze here would be catastrophic, yet, there is every chance that day might come, climate change notwithstanding.  I would like to go visit winter 2-3 weeks a year, if I can convince my wife that's a good idea.

But alas, she is done.

[Silas_Sancona]

4 hours ago, JLM said:

Yep once it happens i dont want it again for a while haha

Whenever i can see it covering the valley- facing slopes of mountains north or east of town ...here, or back in CA.,   i'll glance in that direction and flash the  " Don't to even think about creeping  any further  down hill."   stare 😂

That said, it was  ..right about now actually  ..either last year ..or in '23...  that i was standing out back,  being pelted by cold rain
-and ice pellets..  

That's more than enough icy stuff for me, lol..





 

[Silas_Sancona]

14 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Whenever i can see it covering the valley- facing slopes of mountains north or east of town ...here, or back in CA.,   i'll glance in that direction and flash the  " Don't to even think about creeping  any further  down hill."   stare 😂

That said, it was  ..right about now actually  ..either last year ..or in '23...  that i was standing out back,  being pelted by cold rain
-and ice pellets..  

That's more than enough icy stuff for me, lol..





 

Forgot to add ....How can there be " Flurries " in our forecast when it is supposed to be clear? ...and no other forecast -anywhere- is showing the same thing?




..Major Forecast Faux pas / wishful thinking by our local NWS today. 🙃

[flplantguy]

The models are not backing down with the ice forecast, now showing it making it to Pasco County just barely.  Everyone north could be in for it with significant ice.  About a week out so getting concerning. Temps forecast have gone down and now highs are not supposed to reach 50 two days. Nights of 40 with a decent NE wind though. Hoping it now flips to warmer just before and we get nothing.

[kinzyjr]

If you're on the I-10 corridor, there is a pretty good chance you'll see freezing rain and/or snow. 

 

[JLM]

3 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

If you're on the I-10 corridor, there is a pretty good chance you'll see freezing rain and/or snow. 

 

NWS giving chances of freezing rain, sleet, and snow here from Monday night thru Tuesday night. Still a lot of time between now and then. Winter weather forecasting is a totally different animal compared to normal weather conditions for our state. Any difference in low pressure track or a few miles difference between above and below freezing can make or break everything. We wont truly be able to start pinning things down until Sunday into Monday. For now we watch and wait, but this system does have the potential to be historic by Florida standards imo

[flplantguy]

My forecast Tuesday night is for 70% chance of rain and a low of 34. Rain on top of that cold is a huge concern im not sure how to deal with. I have very dry sand so thats not a big deal, so i think a pre event peroxide down the crowns may help but plastic covers are a no.  Maybe over thicker blankets to insulate but i dont think i will go that far with it.  That forecast is indeed echoing some nasty events of the past, and a high below 50 is just as rare.  Still some time to change but not really much, its all dependant on the low center track.  Models are starting to trend towards cold and the Euro solution, but arent in agreement yet.  Still a slight bit of time for change back to milder but its not looking good. The Adonidia "canary in the coal mine" is already yellow and cold spotted, so this will be a good test for it.  Everything else has done well considering, except the Bentinkia for some reason im still not sure of, but likely soil issues/dryness.

[Matthew92]

Wow so this winter precip event might really be happening. Many models not backing off. GFS just doubled down again. CMC model is actually unnerving: showing multiple inches of snow in the FL Panhandle and then temps in the low teens. I think the latter model there is overblown, but it has been very consistent too while many of the others are waffling around.

I remember though for the January 2014 Gulf Coast Winter Storm, as close to as 24 hours before the event, the forecast had an inch or 2 of snow and/or up to .25+in of freezing rain (which would be a real ice storm). In reality we got like .10 of freezing rain and enough sleet to make the ground whitish. So things could change up until it happens.

[JLM]

2 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Wow so this winter precip event might really be happening. Many models not backing off. GFS just doubled down again. CMC model is actually quite scary, showing multiple inches of snow in the FL Panhandle and then temps in the low teens. I think the latter model there is overblown, but it has been very consistent too while many of the others are waffling around.

I remember though for the January 2014 Gulf Coast Winter Storm, as close to as 24 hours before the event, the forecast had an inch or 2 of snow and/or up to .25+in of freezing rain (which would be a real ice storm). In reality we got like .10 of freezing rain and enough sleet to make the ground whitish. So things could change up until it happens.

CMC is notorious for over modeling cold airmasses. Other models also tend to under model them too. I doubt we get low teens here, think low 20s is most likely but cant rule out upper teens.

[Matthew92]

2 minutes ago, JLM said:

CMC is notorious for over modeling cold airmasses. Other models also tend to under model them too. I doubt we get low teens here, think low 20s is most likely but cant rule out upper teens.

I beginning to realize it could be gnarly though... And if we get an accumulation of some kind of frozen precip on the ground, that could cause the cold temps to linger even more.

[Ivanos1982]

3 minutes ago, JLM said:

CMC is notorious for over modeling cold airmasses. Other models also tend to under model them too. I doubt we get low teens here, think low 20s is most likely but cant rule out upper teens.

I wonder why if they know certain models overblow temperatures why they don't fix that issue? Do we not communicate? Can we not program these things? It's weird. I read way more insight on this here with palm enthusiasts than actual climate scientists. We are a lot more aware of the specifics and the actual damage. Seems like many meteorologists are just moving on to the next big event instead of focusing on what went wrong. Anything already happened is just 'old news' and not matter anymore.

[JLM]

Just now, Ivanos1982 said:

I wonder why if they know certain models overblow temperatures why they don't fix that issue? Do we not communicate? Can we not program these things? It's weird. I read way more insight on this here with palm enthusiasts than actual climate scientists. We are a lot more aware of the specifics and the actual damage. Seems like many meteorologists are just moving on to the next big event instead of focusing on what went wrong. Anything already happened is just 'old news' and not matter anymore.

Its hard for them to program a model to fix one issue without creating another issue. Its better to realize these issues and accommodate for them in the forecasting process instead of trying to reach perfection. And in meteorology, perfection will never happen, as meteorology is really just a theory and not law.

[Ivanos1982]

15 minutes ago, JLM said:

Its hard for them to program a model to fix one issue without creating another issue. Its better to realize these issues and accommodate for them in the forecasting process instead of trying to reach perfection. And in meteorology, perfection will never happen, as meteorology is really just a theory and not law.

not expecting perfection but some of these forecasts are really different. Almost a 30 degree difference. In Houston, the Canadian model has as at -2F for Wed at 6 am while the GFS has us at 29F... I mean that is a HUGE difference for a low. This happens way too much.

[Sabal_Louisiana]

 5 hours ago, JLM said:

Its hard for them to program a model to fix one issue without creating another issue. Its better to realize these issues and accommodate for them in the forecasting process instead of trying to reach perfection. And in meteorology, perfection will never happen, as meteorology is really just a theory and not law.

not expecting perfection but some of these forecasts are really different. Almost a 30 degree difference. In Houston, the Canadian model has as at -2F for Wed at 6 am while the GFS has us at 29F... I mean that is a HUGE difference for a low. This happens way too much.

It is because of examples such as this that I basically ignore the Canadian Model (CMC).

Mid 20s in Phoenix??? Upper teens around Vegas??? The subzero in Central Texas is not impossible but not this time.

[flplantguy]

The forecasts here are still not close.  The NWS has it hitting 34 the coldest night and the other big ones say 39.  I trust the weather service and ny own experience and say 34 is likely.  What is harder to decide on is if it will actually rain at 34 degrees. It could but i think its the hours gefore the 34 that will rain. And THAT is more scary if the wind dries the rain off the leaves fast and cools then via evaporative cooling. I have seen it damage orchid leaves before (admitedly not the same plant) and it can lead to crown rot.  Peroxide before and after so ill be buying more this weekend.  Still hoping its wrong and we avoid a freeze here, but at this point in time and history i think one is becoming likely since they tend to be warmer than the actual temp this winter here.

[Looking Glass]

Me listening to this thread….

 

[Jimbean]

Not cold, but chilly.  This January has been a milder version of the January 2010 fiasco.  

It hasn't been freezing, the lowest I've had so far this season is 39.2F, but it sure hasn't been warm either. 

[SeanK]

Here in Atlanta, we're forecast for 60 hours below freezing. Maps show "cold" penetrating down to Ocala, FL.

If you're not use to this stuff, here's a hack: Get a can of WD-40 with the mini straw, and spray out the locks and latches on your car doors. Spray a rag and wipe down the rubber gasket inside the door jam. This will prevent some icing and sticking after it gets cold.

[pj_orlando_z9b]

This is the coolest Jan I recall in Orlando in 15 years and the next week will only be more significant departures from normal.  Whats odd is my plumeria are all sprouting new leaves. My coconut seems OK but several smaller ones around town are yellowing over the entire canopy. I've read 62 is a critical soil temp for them and I got 60F currently IMBY. I also do the traditional C9s and burlap. 

[HudsonBill]

9 hours ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

This is the coolest Jan I recall in Orlando in 15 years and the next week will only be more significant departures from normal.  Whats odd is my plumeria are all sprouting new leaves. My coconut seems OK but several smaller ones around town are yellowing over the entire canopy. I've read 62 is a critical soil temp for them and I got 60F currently IMBY. I also do the traditional C9s and burlap. 

Im over here inland hudson my big big coconut is still growing still dark green but the older fronds have some browing yellowing and 3 of the oldest have completely died but ot honestly doesn't look much worse than beginning of winter. My 3 small coconuts look absolutely horrible but are still growing. Marked the spears a few days ago and all have grown between 1 inch and 1.5 inches.  

[SeanK]

It'll be cool to be sure, but shouldn't be too bad south of Ocala. 

Atlanta, Jan 1985, first week hit 70°, third week went to -8° (F).

[Brian M]

My yard is always a touch colder than the forecasted low. Going to be a cold wet week that's for sure. Looks like back to normal after this... Fingers crossed.