Northwest Europe 2024/25 winter - first freeze imminent!

[UK_Palms]

The first freeze of the season is already imminent for much of northwest Europe. A new phase of -NAO (North Atlantic oscillation) and high pressure over the arctic (northern blocking) means that cold arctic air is channeled straight down from Greenland and the high arctic into northwest Europe and Scandinavia.

Autumn has been very mild up until now for all of us in northwest Europe, with record high maxes and minimums in many places, but all that is about to change, at least temporarily with the arrival of this arctic blast on Monday/Tuesday. It is looking like quite a significant cold snap for mid-November in some places like Iceland, Norway and Ireland in particular.

 

The cold is already setting in tonight in Scotland with -7C in the Highlands currently but +12C in southwest England. I am reporting +9C at midnight ahead of the cold front arrival.

 

Maybe southern England, northern France, Netherlands, Belgium etc may escape much of it being further south and quite coastal. It probably won't do much there, although hPa 850 temps will still be down to about -7C or -8C in London. I am expecting about -2C air temps overnight, but I doubt central London will see an air frost from this event. Even down to -5C hPa 850 for the Isles of Scilly, but that translates as +9C days and +7C nights at ground level still there. So still fairly mild. The main cold is concentrated in northern England. The GFS model is showing this for mid-week...

 

I am expecting at least -10C to -15C in the Scottish highlands. The latest GFS has -11C at the Cairngorm summit later next week, which I think is on the low end. I wouldn't be surprised to see -15C there with a -10C hPa 850 air mass overhead. You can also really see how much milder the western and northern Isles of Scotland are as well, due to coastal proximity.

 

There are some members on here from Alesund in western Norway who are growing Trachy's, Butia, Jubaea, CIDP etc. That is supposed to be Norways mildest location, so it is looking pretty cold for November. Maybe lows of -7C and temps below freezing for 100+ hours. Quite a bit of snow as well in the forecast. That is already CIDP killer territory, especially for smaller ones in humid climates so this will put any microclimate there to the test already. @Palmfjord62degressnorth @Norwaypalmtrees

 

For the UK at least, much warmer air should arrive to relieve things by Saturday night with temps returning above average again. These are 6am minimums on Sunday...

 

Also one thing to add, it has been the driest first half of a November on record here with many places not even seeing 1mm of rainfall during the first 15 days. The south coast of England has been especially dry with both Shoreham and Thorney Island picking up 0.6mm out to 18th November. St Catherines on the Isle of Wight hasn't recorded any rainfall at all. Heathrow in west London is on 1% of it's normal total for November. So record low rainfall across southern England. Percentages anomalies visible below...

St James Park in London was on 0.6mm for the first 15 days of November., but has seen 0.8mm in the past 2 days now. Still only 1.4mm out to the 18th...

 

St Catharines on the Isle of Wight hasn't had any measurable precipitation this month so far, which is crazy for what is now 18th November. Statistically the joint wettest month too.

 

The Scilly Isles a bit wetter but VERY mild nights. Only 1 night this month that hasn't had a double digit minimum in C, and that was still +9.8C.

[UK_Palms]

The freeze is extending its icy grip on the British Isles and northwest Europe now. Temperatures have plunged across Scotland and northern England. This is also the earliest we have seen a freeze event of this scale since November 2010, which proceeded the dreadful 2010/11 winter! Hopefully this isn’t an omen to that!

Sunday night into Monday morning saw lows of almost -8C in the Scottish Highlands, however it remained much milder in southern England with the Isles of Scilly only dropping to +12.5C. So a difference of 20.3C between the coldest and warmest Met Office station yesterday morning.

 

However last night was even colder across Scotland with lows down to -11.2C and widespread snow in northern England. This is also one of the most extreme temperature gradients that I can remember seeing with southern England hanging onto the mild air up until now.

These were the temperatures at midnight last night across Europe, showing the divide between southern England and the rest of the UK. +14C at midnight on the south coast of England but -10C across Scotland. The cold air still yet to seep into southern England and the nearby continent. Scandinavia is already being hit badly though. Soon it will punch through to Italy even!

In fact the -11.2C at Braemar in the Scottish Highlands last night was the coldest temperature this early on since 1998, which speaks volumes about how abnormally cold this arctic plunge is for the time of year!

Despite the mild night again here last night, temperatures are plunging right now however as the cold air punches south. I was at 13C at about 4am here, but I am down to only 3C now at midday!!! I will definitely be getting a frost tonight! Hopefully only -1C / 30F. These are the current midday temps shown below. Portland in Dorset and Plymouth in Devon are the mildest spots, still holding out at 11C! Temperatures will tank as soon as nightfall comes however!

I’m not taking any chances here, so I have moved the Archontophoenix, Kentia and Beccariophoenix under cover for the next few nights. I am 100% getting a few air frosts here the next few nights. How bad it actually gets is still up for debate however.

Even St James Park in London is looking at some pretty chilly nights this week as the cold air seeps further south! Potentially 2-3 air frosts there over the next few nights, which will be earliest ones in years!

[Foxpalms]

35f here at 4am no visible frost. Looks like Saturday now has been upgraded to around 15-16c. -7c 850hpa temps with no wind + clear skies. All altitude levels have the wind blowing in from the artic circle.  Humidity has been 70-80%.  

[UK_Palms]

850 hPa isotherms peaked at -10C over parts of Scotland and -7C over London yesterday afternoon. I think that is one of the coldest air masses on record for mid-late November in the UK! Of course these are the temperature at 1.5km up in the lower atmosphere but it shows how cold the air is overhead.

Last night was cold but the night before was brutal. Date record minimums set in a number of places, including St James Park, London which saw -1.1C / 30F (previous record low for 20th November was -0.8C). I had -2C / 28F here out in the countryside on Tuesday night, which was the 2nd coldest minimum I have ever recorded in November.

These were the minimums on Tuesday night…

 

Some very cold daytime temperatures as well, which are largely 4-7C below average in many places.

Temperatures just about reached 8-9C in central Cornwall…

 

Thursday morning temperatures…

 

Terrible daytime recovery today as well. Max of 3.7C / 39F by the looks of things here. Of course the sky was clear most of last night allowing the temperature to plummet, and then today it has been overcast all day limiting any solar heating, and now the sky is clearing again right before sunset so it can maximise radiation so cooling overnight again. What a joke. I hate it when that happens! 😡

 

Thankfully it will warm up significantly from tomorrow onwards with temperatures returning to above average by Sunday! We will likely see 16-18C in places on Sunday with nighttime minimums as high as 15C / 59F.

6am temperatures on Sunday!

 

[Foxpalms]

@UK_Palms st James park is usually 1.5c colder than here but last night it was around 2.2c colder, as it only got to 1.1c here. The city of London recorded a low of 1.2c. LCY airport had a low of 1.1c last night.

 

Tresco is looking very mild going into December.

 

 

[UK_Palms]

The Isles of Scilly also had their coldest/lowest November temperature in 14 years yesterday, since 2010, with a low of +2.5C / 37F at the Met Office station on St Mary's. That was also the 3rd coldest November temperature on record I believe, which goes to show how severe this particular spell has been.

 

Of course being so early on, before winter even technically, it can't actually cause much damage. We've hardly seen palm damaging temps. -1C / 30F in London. -2C / 28F for me here. Nothing too extreme, but only due to it being November. The departure from average is pretty extreme however. In fact parts of Scotland have had their coldest November temperature in 41 years! Also the coldest November temperatures in England since 2010...

 

Also regarding the Isles of Scilly, the Met Office station is about 350 yards inland from the beach, on the largest island (St Mary's) where there is a large inner section for cold to pocket, unlike the other smaller and much slimmer islands. Plus there are fields around the Met Office station too and it is a quite open/exposed site in general, despite only being 350 yards from the sea. But likely a good 1C colder than a sheltered spot right on the coast during a 'cold' night. So the fact it hasn't recorded a January air frost in almost 28 years now is extraordinary, given the location of the equipment on St Mary's!

 

Also you can really see how bad my area is doing tonight, again. Microclimates on full display today/tonight. I am at 0C / 32F and freezing here at 2am, although the temp is rising now...

Central London is 5C / 9F warmer...

 

Look at this temperature gradient on the south coast in Sussex...

 

Torquay area is 9C / 17F warmer...

 

Ventnor is 10C / 19F warmer...

 

Salcombe coastal area about 10C / 19F warmer than me...

 

Southwest Cornwall about 10C / 19F warmer than me as well...

 

Isles of Scilly are 11C / 20F warmer than me currently...

 

Also you cannot trust the Bournemouth airport Met Office reading at Hurn. Currently reporting -1C / 30F for 'Bournemouth' but when you actually look into it, well it isn't reflective of the city. An open exposed area at an airport with sandy soil and at the foot of a valley. Hence why it is 5C colder than the next closest station (4C / 39F) and a whopping 9C / 17F colder than the immediate coastal parts of Bournemouth. Hurn is a highly controversial and suspicious Met Office station. Right up there amongst the dodgiest for cold readings. Routinely the coldest spot on the south coast, but I would take it with a pinch of salt...

 

Anyway, here comes the rain and a brief warm up to 16C / 61F this weekend, before it cools down again. Weirdly, tomorrow night will be near record warm as well. Date record low minima for 20th November to date record warm minima for 23rd November. Lows of 14-15C on Saturday night. A swing from record cold to record warm in the space of 72 hours. Make it make sense. 🤣

[UK_Palms]

Well the mini freeze is now a distant memory. On Saturday night  / Sunday morning temperatures were as high as 18C / 64F at 6am in places. London was at 17C / 62F at 6am…

6am temps across Europe on Sunday morning. Very warm in northern Spain with records broken there…

The station at Lakenheath reached 19.2C / 66F on Sunday afternoon. The Met Office stations at nearby Santon Downham and Mildenhall reached 18.7C and 18.5C respectively.

Both St James Park and Heathrow reached 18C / 64F just 3 days after bottoming out at -1.1C / 30F during the cold snap.

I need to check the data but at least 20 or so Met Office stations failed to record an air frost during the event. Quite a few had ultimate lows of 2-3C / 36-38F.

Anyway, we are in proper winter now though really, despite the recovery to more normal temperatures… cool and wet…

[SeanK]

It all comes to an end eventually. We had a mild autumn thus far, with no frost. Alas, Friday night will take a bad turn and by Monday morning we expect -5°C in the Atlanta suburbs. That will take out cannas, musas, alocacias and a bunch of the tender tropicals.

[UK_Palms]

I haven't updated for a few weeks now, since that November cold snap, but it has been pretty mild here since then. December in general has been pretty mild, especially at night with no frosts. It has been pretty cloudy/dull however, hence the mild nights.

December data for the first half of December at St James Park in London. Lowest so far is +2.5C / 37F and warmest is 14.6C / 58F...

 

Current forecast and nudging 16C / 60F on Wednesday...

 

 

Christmas Day is also looking fairly mild this year, again. The 12z GFS model run has the Euro high directly over England on Christmas Day and a southerly air feed from North Africa. Surface temps of 13-14C / 55F in southern England.

 

The latest on the Canadian GEM for Christmas Day...

 

Direct warm air feed from the Canary Islands. Same hPa 850 air mass temps in London as Miami and Corpus Christi.

 

East coast of Scotland may be pushing 16C / 61F on Christmas Day going by the 18z GFS...