Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[Swolte]

Models are appearing to converge on something like another extreme winter for even the southern states like Texas. As if we didn't have enough the past couple of years!
😭

If current models are correct, the worst should be around the 11th of January (at least for Texas). Although I hope it will all blow over or that it won't get as bad as '21, I am not taking chances. I'll slowly start preparing (I have a large yard with many precious young-ish palms so I can't have the "Oh I'll see what happens 2-days out" - attitude.

A few tips I learned from the last few years for my situation:
- Act now. Buy frost cloths early. In previous years, these were all sold out. Not to advertise, but Costco had great deal on frost cloth last week (50ft for about 15 bucks). 
- Get organized. Make a list categorizing your plants by zone. Go by what you think they can handle. For example, windmills may be fine in 7b but because I have a young one, I'll protect them in temps 3 zones higher 9a. Work your way from the most cold sensitive to hardiest. This way, if it appears to not be as bad, you wouldn't have had to waste effort protecting palms that didn't need it.
- Be cheap. People are still bagging up leaves and leaving them for free. I advertise to pick them up on the neighborhood facebook. Pile these up over sensitive plants (or around your palm protections to keep the ground warm) and throw a bit of of mulch to keep it in place. 

Although I am technically recategorized as 9a (LOL...), 90% of what I planted since 2021 has been 7b plants. This has been a great decision! 

[MarcusH]

I created a thread called Polar Vortex for exactly the same discussions last in 2022.  No need for two of the same threads. 

[Keys6505]

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

I created a thread called Polar Vortex for exactly the same discussions last in 2022.  No need for two of the same threads. 

But it's 2024

[Keys6505]

1 hour ago, Swolte said:

Models are appearing to converge on something like another extreme winter for even the southern states like Texas. As if we didn't have enough the past couple of years!
😭

If current models are correct, the worst should be around the 11th of January (at least for Texas). Although I hope it will all blow over or that it won't get as bad as '21, I am not taking chances. I'll slowly start preparing (I have a large yard with many precious young-ish palms so I can't have the "Oh I'll see what happens 2-days out" - attitude.

A few tips I learned from the last few years for my situation:
- Act now. Buy frost cloths early. In previous years, these were all sold out. Not to advertise, but Costco had great deal on frost cloth last week (50ft for about 15 bucks). 
- Get organized. Make a list categorizing your plants by zone. Go by what you think they can handle. For example, windmills may be fine in 7b but because I have a young one, I'll protect them in temps 3 zones higher 9a. Work your way from the most cold sensitive to hardiest. This way, if it appears to not be as bad, you wouldn't have had to waste effort protecting palms that didn't need it.
- Be cheap. People are still bagging up leaves and leaving them for free. I advertise to pick them up on the neighborhood facebook. Pile these up over sensitive plants (or around your palm protections to keep the ground warm) and throw a bit of of mulch to keep it in place. 

Although I am technically recategorized as 9a (LOL...), 90% of what I planted since 2021 has been 7b plants. This has been a great decision! 

I'd also add to not be afraid to defoliate ahead of time!  If you have temps coming that are definitely going to nuke all the fronds anyway, cut everything off before you add protection.  It's a lot easier to thoroughly protect a stump rather than a full crown.

[Swolte]

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

I created a thread called Polar Vortex for exactly the same discussions last in 2022.  No need for two of the same threads. 

No need for a single multi-year mega Polar Vortex thread as it becomes unwieldly.  Every storm is different. There's also threads from 2021 you can post in with the same unfortunate theme, btw...

I just hope these threads aren't moved to the more obscure 'weather'-only board. Makes no sense for a cold hardy palm forum, imo. I made the topic a bit more Palmy/pragmatic...

Bought a few stakes today for tent-building. I also put up some of these cheap plastic tents (with ventilation & stakes) I will be trying out this year. 

[Swolte]

22 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

I'd also add to not be afraid to defoliate ahead of time!  If you have temps coming that are definitely going to nuke all the fronds anyway, cut everything off before you add protection.  It's a lot easier to thoroughly protect a stump rather than a full crown.

This has worked well for me in the past, yes!! I only do this if I am relatively certain the temperatures will go as low as feared. I have seen images, like the one below (probability temps deviating from average) which would suggest parts of central Texas may still escape something really terrible. Florida does not look good here. 

 

[PaPalmTrees]

Haven't protected anything yet But I will in a few days.

[MarcusH]

1 hour ago, Swolte said:

No need for a single multi-year mega Polar Vortex thread as it becomes unwieldly.  Every storm is different. There's also threads from 2021 you can post in with the same unfortunate theme, btw...

I just hope these threads aren't moved to the more obscure 'weather'-only board. Makes no sense for a cold hardy palm forum, imo. I made the topic a bit more Palmy/pragmatic...

Bought a few stakes today for tent-building. I also put up some of these cheap plastic tents (with ventilation & stakes) I will be trying out this year. 

We already covered 3 polar vortexes 22 and 23 and 24 . We already started talking about 2025 as you can see from the last comments published in December.  This forum is important for us and indeed it has a lot to do with cold hardy palms as some of the PT members mentioned. 9 followers , 864 replies and 38.4k views speaks volume . If people wouldn't like this thread the numbers would show.  This thread has been here for a while but feel free to invent the wheel again. That's copycat style and makes absolutely no sense to start the same thread. 

[PaPalmTrees]

1 hour ago, Swolte said:

No need for a single multi-year mega Polar Vortex thread as it becomes unwieldly.  Every storm is different. There's also threads from 2021 you can post in with the same unfortunate theme, btw...

I just hope these threads aren't moved to the more obscure 'weather'-only board. Makes no sense for a cold hardy palm forum, imo. I made the topic a bit more Palmy/pragmatic...

Bought a few stakes today for tent-building. I also put up some of these cheap plastic tents (with ventilation & stakes) I will be trying out this year. 

What cold temps are you gonna experience?

[JeskiM]

Currently I am not preparing to do anything.  I am only monitoring the forecasts, discussions, etc.

The reason I am hedging on this extreme cold, in CenTex  attm are the following :

1:  The models are inconsistent on the extremity of the cold.

2:  The models are pushing the coldest air further out in time. Usually when I see this at times of large scale pattern changes then the models tend to miss.

3:  There is not cold enough air at the origin point of the expected cold pool to justify temps this low. ... though that may change yet.

4:  There is very little to no snow pack in states any further south of Candian border states ... that means the cold air that does drop south will modify/warm up quite a bit.  ... For example before the 2011 deep freeze, there was snow pack from the Canadian border all the way down to souther Kansas. So when that cold air dropped south it could not moderate in TX.

5:  Precip/storms may stay east of here, so ice, blizzards is not likely.

6:  I still think it will stay to our east

Now here's the wildcard for TX .... If a low pressure area can form just to our west, on the back side of this PV,  stay detached from the mean flow, and the High pressure ridge west of that orients itself from SW to NE from AZ to Montana, then we need to watch out for both cold and a winter storm.  A few models are hinting at this, but ensembles are not.

As always, best to stay prepared and be on the ready. I think by this coming weekend it should be pretty clear how this will unfold.

-Matt

[UK_Palms]

Polar vortex coming for us as well. It looks like a 3 way split between eastern USA, Europe and east Asia. All the cold funnelling down out of the arctic. Likewise the peak looks to be around 10th/11th January possibly for us here too.

I'll wrap up the bananas and drag all the potted stuff indoors on New Year's day when I am off work. It looks like there could be a deep freeze from around 2nd - 12th January in most of Europe away from the Med. This Friday looks bad enough when I will probably wake up to -5C / 23F but some of the longer range stuff is horrifying. Probably -10C / 14F for me. The cold weather arrives in 2-3 days, so it is imminent! The question is to what extent and how prolonged it actually is on both sides of the Atlantic.

For Germany it looks brutal, France as well. Possibly -18C / 0F in Munich and -12C / 10F right down to the French Med.

 

You can take a further 2-3C / 5F off these charts as well for mid-winter as GFS understates the minimums normally. So this could be brutal. The worst freeze since February 2018 no doubt, if it transpires.

The GFS 18z is still downloading now and it carries on the freeze throughout the run. It's a complete palm wipe out event for central and eastern Europe. Trachy's will be gone in Germany. Munich is absolutely cooked on these charts at longer range! That is getting on for -25C / -13F in the Munich area.

 

[idontknowhatnametuse]

Not really, it's very mild down here in Mexico. Minimum temperature will be 7⁰C and it's always around 20⁰C and 30⁰C in the afternoon.

[Xenon]

I'm really liking the latest GFS runs...an imaginary hand is pushing all of the cold into MS/AL/FL and sparing Texas 😝. Hopefully not landscape changing cold for anyone but maybe the weather gods are finally taking pity on TX lol.

I haven't really done anything yet and actually just added some organic fertilizer and mulch to the very hungry queen palms and citrus trees which should bloom in another 6-8 weeks or so. Will add some lights to the tropical fruit trees tomorrow. Not feeling so doom and gloom as of now, we'll see 

Zero signs of even a kiss of frost here so far even in the Arctic West suburbs of Houston. The bananas are as green as can be and even better looking than summer even. Neighbor's indestructible Ficus elastica rubra shrub is pristine as well 

The African blue basil and spicy Jatropha are still blooming their heads off in the Bizzie bed. There's a Ficus elastica 'Honduras' in there too 

[thyerr01]

@Xenon What's the tall plant with the red flowers behind the Bismarckia? I can't tell if its firespike or something else.

[Xenon]

17 minutes ago, thyerr01 said:

@Xenon What's the tall plant with the red flowers behind the Bismarckia? I can't tell if its firespike or something else.

Spicy Jatropha, Jatropha integerrima

[Xerarch]

55 minutes ago, Xenon said:

I'm really liking the latest GFS runs...an imaginary hand is pushing all of the cold into MS/AL/FL and sparing Texas 😝. Hopefully not landscape changing cold for anyone but maybe the weather gods are finally taking pity on TX lol.

Though I wish no ill to Florida, I do admit I'm getting a little tired of taking one for the team.  Maybe we'll spread the wealth a little on this one.

[Swolte]

4 hours ago, PaPalmTrees said:

What cold temps are you gonna experience?

I am not sure yet. I agree with @JeskiM that its too early to say for the Central Texas situation. Unlike Florida, which likely will see some form of a severe cold event, my town in central Texas may not even get hit much.  I hope @Xenon is right as we certainly could use a break in Texas. 

I now have over 70 different palms (counting presumed cultivars/forms), with most being quite young, I just don't want to be unprepared in case it does get pretty bad. The potential for another Palmageddon is there. I guess we'll know a bit more every day. I am not really wrapping anything large yet but mostly getting buckets and materials ready, and trying to clear my agenda, for when things materialize more. 

Europe looks dire!

[Zone7Bpalmguy]

My sago palms will get enough mulch to cover most of the caudex. Then I usually wrap with a towel and cover that with a pot. I may try to keep the fronds of my two largest sagos green by putting a blanket over them and then a tarp.  That has worked in the past. I may add a tad mulch around the small trunks of my birmingham, brazoria and palmetto. I added mini Christmas lights on 3 of my 4 larger windmills, decorative as well as some added heat. Other than that they are all on their own. My yard is a trial garden for palms I guess. I don't do the extreme protecting and if it dies it gets replaced. 

[Swolte]

3 minutes ago, Zone7Bpalmguy said:

My sago palms will get enough mulch to cover most of the caudex. Then I usually wrap with a towel and cover that with a pot. I may try to keep the fronds of my two largest sagos green by putting a blanket over them and then a tarp.  That has worked in the past. I may add a tad mulch around the small trunks of my birmingham, brazoria and palmetto. I added mini Christmas lights on 3 of my 4 larger windmills, decorative as well as some added heat. Other than that they are all on their own. My yard is a trial garden for palms I guess. I don't do the extreme protecting and if it dies it gets replaced. 

What state are you in if I may ask? Sago's have pleasantly surprised me. They survived 4F in my yard unprotected (close to the house, though). They have defoliated every year for the past 5 years (something that only used to happen once every 3 years, I was told by a neighbor). Birmingham and Brazoria survived here unprotected with little damage in '21 so I hope things don't hit negative temps for you... I have had mixed experiences with windmills & cold here in Texas.

Anyway, do keep us posted on how yours are doing. Any data on how palms perform (relatively) unprotected is very useful!  

[UK_Palms]

Spain is into the freezer as well on that 18z GFS run. Likely single digits F for Madrid on that, especially the outskirts of the city.

 

The UK that same night/morning for comparison...

 

 

The American mid-west is going to get smoked unless there is major model changes in the coming days.

[amh]

I'm hoping for the best, but I have a bunch of gallon jugs full of water and tarps ready, and I'll be getting a trailer full of mulch in the morning.

[Zone7Bpalmguy]

7 hours ago, Swolte said:

What state are you in if I may ask? Sago's have pleasantly surprised me. They survived 4F in my yard unprotected (close to the house, though). They have defoliated every year for the past 5 years (something that only used to happen once every 3 years, I was told by a neighbor). Birmingham and Brazoria survived here unprotected with little damage in '21 so I hope things don't hit negative temps for you... I have had mixed experiences with windmills & cold here in Texas.

Anyway, do keep us posted on how yours are doing. Any data on how palms perform (relatively) unprotected is very useful!  

I'm in southeast Tennessee.  Sago palms are a lot tougher than most people (and books) will suggest. Two years ago I dropped to 3-5'F and had a daily high of only 14'F. I didn't lose a palm, yet alone a sago. Now my sagos are in a sheltered location near my house but still... This summer I did plant a 3rd sago in a more exposed location. We'll see how it does. 

As for the sabal majors that I have. They have proven winners too. Of course, the adage is once they really trunk they lose their hardiness some. Time will tell as well. 

Here's a video of one of my sagos after this past January cold and how it sailed thru the winter with minimal protection. The low was 8'F. I give a more detailed description in my videos under the "more" section, which is where the description of each video is filled in. Sure, I'll keep anyone interested posted on the details and my findings.

 

[Mazat]

12 hours ago, Xenon said:

I'm really liking the latest GFS runs...an imaginary hand is pushing all of the cold into MS/AL/FL and sparing Texas 😝. Hopefully not landscape changing cold for anyone but maybe the weather gods are finally taking pity on TX lol.

I haven't really done anything yet and actually just added some organic fertilizer and mulch to the very hungry queen palms and citrus trees which should bloom in another 6-8 weeks or so. Will add some lights to the tropical fruit trees tomorrow. Not feeling so doom and gloom as of now, we'll see 

Zero signs of even a kiss of frost here so far even in the Arctic West suburbs of Houston. The bananas are as green as can be and even better looking than summer even. Neighbor's indestructible Ficus elastica rubra shrub is pristine as well 

The African blue basil and spicy Jatropha are still blooming their heads off in the Bizzie bed. There's a Ficus elastica 'Honduras' in there too 

Xenon: the bismarkia is also a beauty🤗

[JeskiM]

Looks like the models have backed off on the coldest temps for CenTex. The few long range models have lows between 25-30.  A couple days ago I was seeing low teens.

North TX may get two winter precip storms next week.  The 2nd one, mid-wewk, may get some frzn precip into CenTex. ... that's the one to watch in CenTex.

I did pick up more frost cloth and tarps this morning in case I go the route of covering up stuff. These current forecasted lows are near my trigger point where I cover up stuff or haul all the potted stuff into the garage. 

My problem this year is I can't fit everything into the garage.  So if it gets real bad some will have to go into the house, some get left out, covered and possibly sacrificed. Newly In ground stuff looks like it will need to be coverered regardless. I probably will not make my final decision till Friday, but currently I am putting my options and strategy into place .... the forecast for my house us very borderline one the level of cold (mid 20s) where I typically decide what to do.

The other part of this is that it doesn't look like a situation where I stay below freezing for anything more than 12 hrs at a time. If I was at 27F for a day straight then that's way different than smacking 27 and bouncing back to say 41 for a high. 

- Matt

[JeskiM]

Latest snow cover map has only snow along the Canadian border states and of course interior Rocky Mountains.  The ground south of that is warmer than normal so the low level cold layer that will be shallow should moderate quit a bit as it drops south.

The Northern Hem. temp map does not show the extreme cold that can be seen this time of year ... I don't see any temps in the -40 to -60 F range in the region where this air mass will come from.   Siberia is running warmer than normal attm.  The coldest arctic blasts would require trans-polar flow where the airmass originates over the north pole to Siberia, typically above Alaska, and those areas are not as cold as they could be. That's the other reason this may not become a historical level freeze for the southern tier states.

Now, if the storms to come can put down a blanket of ice/snow over Nebraska, Kansas and points eastward, and the weather pattern holds up over a period of 2-4 weeks (which it may) with a good cross-arctic flow from Siberia or other points where it could be < -40 F then yes, the historical cold may happen. 

Thar's my 2 cents for now. ... course I've been wrong many times before. ... winter wx is a b**** to nail down beyond the 5-7 day mark, especially precip.

Best to stay prepared anyways.

-Matt

[PaPalmTrees]

6 hours ago, Zone7Bpalmguy said:

I'm in southeast Tennessee.  Sago palms are a lot tougher than most people (and books) will suggest. Two years ago I dropped to 3-5'F and had a daily high of only 14'F. I didn't lose a palm, yet alone a sago. Now my sagos are in a sheltered location near my house but still... This summer I did plant a 3rd sago in a more exposed location. We'll see how it does. 

As for the sabal majors that I have. They have proven winners too. Of course, the adage is once they really trunk they lose their hardiness some. Time will tell as well. 

Here's a video of one of my sagos after this past January cold and how it sailed thru the winter with minimal protection. The low was 8'F. I give a more detailed description in my videos under the "more" section, which is where the description of each video is filled in. Sure, I'll keep anyone interested posted on the details and my findings.

 

I protect mine essentially the same Way The only thing different I do is add Some c7 incandescent mini  lights, I'll post some pictures in a few days When I covered them up for the up and coming cold

[Las Palmas Norte]

I have readied my palms should there be any winter cold weather.  I have a few non-palm things that I'll deploy some temporary protection, but outside of that, I prefer not to wait.

 

22 hours ago, MarcusH said:

I created a thread called Polar Vortex for exactly the same discussions last in 2022.  No need for two of the same threads. 

🤣 Same or similar topics that have been explored more than once, are a very regular occurrence on the forums.

[PalmatierMeg]

A lot of good info here. Use it as you see fit. You got about 10 days until "crunch" time. You really can't fool Mother Nature.

I got a lot fewer plants post-Ian and my hurricane replacement palms tend toward palmate and hardy instead of crown shafted and wimpy. It took only Charley, Irma and Ian, then Idalia, Helene & Milton to wisen me up.

[JeskiM]

11 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

A lot of good info here. Use it as you see fit. You got about 10 days until "crunch" time. You really can't fool Mother Nature.

I got a lot fewer plants post-Ian and my hurricane replacement palms tend toward palmate and hardy instead of crown shafted and wimpy. It took only Charley, Irma and Ian, then Idalia, Helene & Milton to wisen me up.

Climatology always wins out.  Long game for me is to lean towards the natives and other obvious cold hardy stuff.

Of course I will always zone push as much as I can tolerate the effort to protect and loose. That's the thrill of the gamble. ... I only get to live once and I have already spent a few of my "9 lives".

The good news is we all have seen the warnings of this latest potentiality. Now do what you can do and then sit back and watch the show unfold however it may.

-Matt

[Foxpalms]

Gfs run is now showing 0c as the coldest temp one night here and a few 1c nights, with multiple days 13-14c after the cold spell. Seems very changeable.

[PalmatierMeg]

Sometimes it’s not the ultimate low you should dread but how quickly that temp bounces back after the sun rises - pray that the following day is sunny, which is the norm in SWFL. That 0C low won’t kill a palm instantly unless it’s a coconut or one of the other uber tropical palm species (which I know I won’t find growing outdoors  during a UK winter). It’s the slide down from 5C that can be lethal. Coconuts suffer leaf burn and yellowing below 10C.

[Swolte]

Matters do look a bit better for Central Texas, however, we're still days out and a lot can change. Any of these systems moving a bit more south or east (see animation below) and I am in trouble. For now, it looks like I'll be hitting something in the 20's (which is great, and my garden can easily handle that). Florida seems pretty stable for unusually cold weather. I wonder if we should give a wake up call to the forum above us... (they seem to be occupied with saving exotic species but no mentioned of prep for a potential palm extinction event). Oh well, it is early... 

Today I got some more cold protection materials ready. I had gathered some hay I got from friends which will function as insulation for under pots and on the ground. I keep old nursery pots (the larger ones) and tape the holes to protect the smaller plants. Plastic doesn't insulate well but if you add two layers of pots (and with the hay) I believe it is much better. I place some rocks on top to prevent things from blowing away. 

I have also collected some leaves from people who, for some reason, put that out on the curb for free (also great for throwing in your dog and kids)! Good for insulation. 

All of this cost me zero $$$!

[PaPalmTrees]

The forecast changed I won't have to Protect things as heavily as I thought

[ChrisA]

There’s not currently much snow between the Canadian border and Texas but the forecast is fixing to settle that problem handily.  Hope this doesn’t pan out, but look at snowfall totals between today and Jan 10th. There will not be much bare ground to moderate if these snowfall totals are realized.  Still only showing a low of about 34F for San Antonio thru this period, but ever time I check the daytime highs are lowering steadily.

Good luck everyone! Not sure we won’t be screwed, 😂!

Thinking these bananas at the botanical garden will not be long for this world…

[CascadiaPalms]

Polar Vortex ....I think I saw some perennials come up in my garden the other day.. 

[SeanK]

Our local 11-Alive channel posted a weather update. Since most mainstream sources were lagging behind the bloggers, it wanted to get ahead of the topic. It also started this past year with promos stating it would clear up public misinformation.

It all seems like PR work. Maybe the local channels are losing viewers.

[Dartolution]

I have been watching this diligently and it is giving me whiplash. A few days ago we were in the teens for my area of Alabama, then in the mid/upper 20's, now low 20's.... 😬 

It would be nice to go through a winter without having 50% or more of the palms defoliate due to record lows..... 

At least they survived I suppose. 

[Las Palmas Norte]

46 minutes ago, Dartolution said:

It would be nice to go through a winter without having 50% or more of the palms defoliate due to record lows..... 

50% ? Wow. Nasty.

[Allen]

No scarry lows for me yet unless it reverses.  

[Arecaceus]

On 12/31/2024 at 12:27 AM, UK_Palms said:

For Germany it looks brutal, France as well. Possibly -18C / 0F in Munich and -12C / 10F right down to the French Med.

You can take a further 2-3C / 5F off these charts as well for mid-winter as GFS understates the minimums normally. So this could be brutal. The worst freeze since February 2018 no doubt, if it transpires.

The GFS 18z is still downloading now and it carries on the freeze throughout the run. It's a complete palm wipe out event for central and eastern Europe. Trachy's will be gone in Germany. Munich is absolutely cooked on these charts at longer range! That is getting on for -25C / -13F in the Munich area.

 

 

This sounds a bit dramatic tbh. Even if it was all going down like this, it wouldn't be a "complete palm wipe out event for central and eastern Europe" and Trachies wouldn't be "gone in Germany". Most Trachies are planted in the mild areas and Trachies have survived worse, going through many decades and the worst of cold blasts like the one in the late 1980s. People who live in non-suitable areas are most likely protecting their palms anyway.

Also I don't understand why you point out Munich. Munich is notorious for having a harsh climate just because of crazy temp fluctuations alone. In spring temps jump up and down from Foehn inluenced summer weather to hard frosts within days. Munich also isn't a big palm planting place to begin with.